Shinori Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 Orihime is not clear based on actions and if there is a safeguard in scum side they can safeguard ori as ori redirects people onto her for extra roleblocks. So seriously. If baldrick flips scum Athena blocks ori. Kts cops conq. If Athena dies then we will know that ori isn't scum in this situation while kts also clears or gets a guilty on someone. Town 100% wins if we lynch scum today because of the actions we have going into the night phase. But for that we have to decide on who Athena will target beforehand so we know who is clear if he does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinori Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 Oh Athena doesn't have lul Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinori Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 Head hurts but I'm trying to run through some scenarios and I think town still wins assuming Baldrick flips scum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iris Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 SIRI BOT VOTALS: (4) Baldrick: Shinori, Orihime, Refa, athena_57 (1) Refa: Killthestory (1) No Lynch: Baldrick Not Voting: Conqueror, Jaybee There are 38.5 hours left in the phase. With 8 alive, it takes 3 to lynch at deadline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluedoom Posted May 26, 2018 Author Share Posted May 26, 2018 (edited) Vote in your role pm for changing rules to hammer and I'll do that, looks like you guys want to speed up the game. Edited May 26, 2018 by Magnificence Incarnate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athena_57 Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 Perhaps it would be good to coordinate anarchy/democracy votes here? I'd say we want democracy in *YLO for sure, so if we lynch scum we vote anarchy so we have democracy the day after, if we lynch town we vote democracy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinori Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 *YLO is automatically democracy. So no matter what we should all just vote democracy tonight. Big post coming. @athena_57 Stick around for like 10 minutes or something need you to read it and give thoughts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athena_57 Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 On the other hand, assuming Refa lives (likely, if he dies then PoE pool is smaller so whatever), anarchy two days from now is not really a problem considering the alive people/extra posts ratio. So maybe we just want democracy tomorrow either way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athena_57 Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Shinori said: *YLO is automatically democracy. So no matter what we should all just vote democracy tonight. Oh yeah, whoops. you're right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iris Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said: Vote in your role pm for changing rules to hammer and I'll do that, looks like you guys want to speed up the game. Hammer would be 2/3 (so for today, 6 votes to hammer). To vote for this option, majority is needed, so 5 people would have to vote for it in their role pm. ##Vote: Hammer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athena_57 Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 @Refa Regarding my role + inventor, it depends on the wording of the inventor, so having JB ask the mods whether a shot-restorer works on his role gives a more conclusive answer than having me do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinori Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 Okay so here's the plan: We follow this plan EXACTLY and we win assuming Baldrick is scum Quote Day 5: (Current day) 6 town - 2 scum alive Lynch Baldrick(assuming scum) Night 5: 6 town - 1 scum alive Orihime Martyr's Shinori KTS cops Ori (Assuming he gets an innno) Day 6: (Let's say Jaybee dies) 5 town - 1 scum alive Lynch KTS(assuming town flip) Night 6: 4 town - 1 scum alive Orihime LIGHTNING RODS whoever it is we tell her to lightning rod. Let's say conq Day 7: (Let's say Athena dies) 3 town - 1 scum alive If Orihime is alive at start of day phase then Refa is scum. If Orihime is dead at start of day phase then Conq is scum. If KTS gets a guilty on Ori then we just lynch Ori. Either she flips scum and we win cause KTS is telling the truth or Ori flips town and we just lynch KTS for lying the next day phase. IF BALDRICK FLIPS SCUM WE DO THIS EXACT PLAN. No one decide to go off and do their own thing, if you do you're scum. Variables: Quote Scum safeguard variable (Nothing really changes) Players cannot self-target unless their role pm specifically says so. I'm gonna assume a safeguard can't self target. Day 5: (Current day) 6 town - 2 scum alive Lynch Baldrick(assuming scum) Night 5: 6 town - 1 scum alive Orihime Martyr's Shinori KTS cops Ori (Role fails) Day 6: (Let's say Jaybee dies) 5 town - 1 scum alive Lynch KTS(assuming town flip) - Ori would be clear unless we think Scum!safeguard can self target Night 6: 4 town - 1 scum alive Orihime LIGHTNING RODS whoever it is we tell her to lightning rod. Let's say conq Day 7: (Let's say Athena dies) 3 town - 1 scum alive Assuming scum!Safeguard can't self target cause that's bastard I don't think this changes at all. If Orihime is alive at start of day phase then Refa is scum. If Orihime is dead at start of day phase then Conq is scum. If Orihime's action failed while targeting Conq that would mean Refa is scum!Safeguard because scum shouldn't be able to self target as safeguard This plan however is blown to pieces if Orihime is like Scum!Ascetic on top of her current role or can self target as safeguard but I would think that would be to op. I don't think self-targeting is a thing. If Scum!Ascetic martyr/lightning rod is a role then we would have seen way more redirects/blocks happening but we haven't. So the above plans should be 100% victory if Baldrick flips as scum. Also that would basically be 2 roleblockers on scum side. If Baldrick flips town then I don't know what do to because this would mean there is a scum safeguard that didn't target me when they tried to kill me. I'd just be lost in this situation. If Baldrick does flip town the above plans get completely thrown out the window and we move into *YLO on day 5 with 4-2 alive and basically a 50/50 chance of hitting scum going into the next day phase. AM I MISSING ANYTHING? @athena_57 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athena_57 Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 @Shinori What happens when town!Ori gets killed tonight? We have Refa/Conq/KTS leftover with 2 lynches, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athena_57 Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 I haven't properly thought over this scenario yet though, maybe I'm missing something. That's the only thing I can find. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athena_57 Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 So N5 Ori dies, KTS's cop is gone. D6 we lynch KTS/Refa/Conq 33% to hit scum N6 one of Shin/JB/me dies D7 we're with 2 confirmed townies and 2 others and have 50/50? So this is a 67% chance of success. (Assuming random lynching) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athena_57 Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 Did I just help scum... Fuck me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinori Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 Town!ori dying is the one thing I didn't think of. But then realistically it just comes to finding out who is most likely Baldricks buddy if he's scum and throw in some role speculation into the game and we can still probably solve it I would think. Like I really think KTS is town cause unless Via was our cop and KTS is janitor and is just using a 1x cop as a fake claim then town had no investigative roles besides a tracker basically. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athena_57 Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 Ignoring scumrole-shenanigans, I think it's failproof besides that. And yeah, it's not really 67% assuming we're better at solving than dice. (Which is very optimistic :P) Also, do we know whether Orihime's role is infinite use? Did we hear something about that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinori Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 She didn't claim limited shots at all and she also said she planned to use her martyr role tonight. If anything suddenly changes WRT her role then I think that looks bad for her. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athena_57 Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 So... Hammer time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaybee Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 13 hours ago, Refa said: 1x Vote Revealer and after Radna died, I could distribute 10 posts every phase (but it only does something during Anarchy phase). was this ever proven? the 2nd half Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conqueror Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 Today was a good roleslop. Most of the latter bit flew over my head but let's try it and see of it works. This talk about via reminds me that scum had some sort of janitor role. Maybe a one-shot janitor. That seems weak, so it could take the place of a goon, in which case there would be no goons left, in which case KTS is probably town for being rolecopped as vanilla. I still think Orihime is scum despite what Refa said yesterday - unless someone can explain how any of her night actions make sense in a town context. I'll have to think about why maf would both redirect and roleblock someone though since that makes no sense. If Baldrick flips mafia then maybe his flip will enlighten us or something. If it really is SB/Baldrick/Orihime then scum were the only 3 people getting wagoned on D4. Talk about losing control of the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conqueror Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jaybee said: was this ever proven? the 2nd half Oh, I forgot that it wasn't proven yet. Maybe we should vote for anarchy after all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conqueror Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 If Baldrick flips scum then Refa is probably town and I wouldn't bother trying to confirm him. I guess if Baldrick flips town then vote anarchy to confirm Refa's role? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaybee Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 uhhhh rad died d2 d4 was anarchy i don't recall anybody having extra posts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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