So what's going on in North and South Korea?

[Bubba Jones]

22 hours ago, indigospace said:

I'll have to keep this in mind then. By the way, what is it that China can do that'll force Kim to do something he doesn't want to do? I understand that they're a larger country with Communism to back them up, but I'm curious.

China is the largest partner the DPRK has and one of the few places where they can do business and one of their few sources of international support.  They are capable of exerting a substantial amount of influence on the DPRK.

Before the Soviet bloc collapsed, while the DPRK developed with a mind for self-sufficiency, they have a lot of mineral resources (coal, iron, steel, uranium) and a lot of industrial infrastructure Japan left behind.  They played back and forth with the Soviet Union and China and were able to have their industry modernized, import heavy machinery and the technology for fertilizer factories for agriculture, and the oil to run most of it.  While the Soviet Union was around, they were more or less able to keep pace with the RoK economically.

After the collapse, infrastructure development halted and regressed, there was no oil to run their agricultural machinery and heavy use of fertilizers left most of their agricultural land fallow or under productive.  Buyers for the DPRK’s mineral wealth also dried up.  China was left as the only reliable partner they have.  Furthermore it is noctoriously easy to skirt China’s regulations along the China-Korea border even during sanctions.  China generally need’s Korean coal and will look the other way when it is smuggled.  

China is also most powerful country willing to consistently defend them in the international community for historical reasons dating back to the Second World War, being very comfortable with the DPRK’s position between China and the RoK, the existing trading relationships which are valuable to China’s development, the perception of suzerainty they gain from the relationship, and on and on.

By withdrawing, limiting, or expanding their support of the DPRK they can attempt to influence their actions.

However, the DPRK has a history of going their own way and just dealing with hardship while ignoring the consequences.  While it has not done well for the DPRK’s economy or perception worldwide, it has kept them independent from most forms of foreign influence and kept the Kim dynasty in power.

[Shoblongoo]

Meeting's Off: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/24/trump-calls-off-historic-meeting-with-kim-jong-un-607126

"The stunning reversal came after the president suggested earlier this week that plans for the meeting might be delayed amid renewed tension with the North Korean government, which last week criticized the U.S. for engaging in joint military exercises with South Korea and appeared to back away from their pledge to discuss denuclearization."

...of course...

Edited May 24, 2018 by Shoblongoo

[SuperIb]

Tch, wouldn't you think Trump's reasons for cancelling would only make it more important to have the summit in the first place? I understand concerns with holding a meeting with Kim Jong Un exhibiting "tremendous anger and open hostility", however, that would only make the summit more valuable as a way to address such concerns, would it not? Now he too is resorting back to threats, which will surely dismantle any resemblance of progress made. This seems like the least optimal solution and makes me wonder how the decision to cancel the summit ultimately came up.

[Bubba Jones]

Trump came out and said they may stilll hold a meeting, Un came out and said the same thing, USFK thinks it can still happen, and Moon has no idea what’s going on.

It’s like they both discovered how much international attention and publicity they can milk from this and they’ll both drag it out for as long as possible.  It’s like turning international diplomacy into a k-drama/reality show (if I dug around I could probably even find Trump/Un ships with a jealous Putin and Xaoping) with more explosive risks.

Edited May 26, 2018 by Bubba Jones

[dragonlordsd]

On 5/26/2018 at 12:35 AM, Bubba Jones said:

Trump came out and said they may stilll hold a meeting, Un came out and said the same thing, USFK thinks it can still happen, and Moon has no idea what’s going on.

It’s like they both discovered how much international attention and publicity they can milk from this and they’ll both drag it out for as long as possible.  It’s like turning international diplomacy into a k-drama/reality show (if I dug around I could probably even find Trump/Un ships with a jealous Putin and Xaoping) with more explosive risks.

My guess (and again, I'm just a guy on the internet guessing about things, so don't put too much stock in it) is that there's a significant amount of backroom dealing going on.

In spite of that, I don't see any major changes occurring. Kim doesn't respect Trump enough to actually follow through on any promises (I don't think any world leaders do), so unless Xaoping drops the hammer on him, it's going to be just more empty words from both sides.