Who Would Logically Win the Hoshidian-Nohrian Conflict

[Etrurian emperor]

10 hours ago, Dandy Druid said:

Yeah, but that would mean the Nohrians would have to cross the gorge, which doesn't seem too easy. It's possible, but it would be slow and it would put the Hoshidans at a defensive advantage. There's a reason why both stories travel by boat- it's easier to arrive in Mokushu in bigger quantities. There would be a western front, but it wouldn't be as intense as a front from the South. Plus, either way, they're still in Hoshido, and not terribly spread out. Compared to Nohr, which not only has to invade Hoshido from multiple points, but also has to defend at Cheve. The Nohrians are just more screwed. Luckily, they're strong, but it's not a formula for long term success, imo.

I don't think crossing the gorge is that hard. The Nohrian army crosses it with Corrin pretty early in the story and I believe that while Corrin's army went by boat Garon's army crossed through the gorge. 

A possible Nohrian strategy could be to send half of their Army by boat to Mokushu to defend it from any Hoshidan attack while the other half first starts by ravaging Chev and knocking them out of the war early. Then the army that razed Chev marches eastwards to Hoshido while the army in Mokushu also goes on the offensive. This would eliminate the need to fight on two fronts while making the presumably smaller Hoshidan army be the one that fights on two fronts. 

[Soleater]

19 hours ago, Etrurian emperor said:

Nohr being poor and starving doesn't have to be to their detriment in the war. In fact it might even be a boon because they are a  fiercer people, better adjusted to handle the hardship that come with war. Its worth noting that ''barbarians'' from barren places often make better soldiers than citizens from soft, spoiled countries. China's been punched around by their nomadic neighbors a lot in its history, and the Romans and Persians didn't always fare much better. 

The game also pretty consistently portrays Nohr as having the upper hand in the war. In Conquest their invasion is a smashing success and in Birthright the war only ends because Hoshidans manage to ''sneak'' into Windmire and dethrone Garon. Isn't there a scene in birthright were the siblings discuss just how badly things are going on the homefront? In Revelations Hoshido doesn't fare too well either. Takumi's captured and and Ryoma goes missing relatively quickly. In the routes were Nohr doesn't win the war through conquest the war ends tends not to end in an outright Nohrian defeat, it ends because the new regime, whether its Xander or Leo wants the war to end. 

Nohr generally keeps their neighbors in line through force and they do rebel, but at the end of the day they are at least nominally on Nohrs side. Most of Hoshido's neighbors pretty much ignore the war. The wind tribe, Fire tribe and Izumo are isolationists while Mukushu is just itching to turn on Hoshido. Nohr and Mukushu would be able to attack Hoshido from both sides while the other minor nations just sit back and watch.

This may veer a bit into headcanon but I believe that while Hoshidan has the better army it also has a much smaller army than Nohr does. Just about every Hoshidan unit comes from a long line or retainers or are of the nobility. The playable units in Conquest however are pretty much all recruited from the gutter. Iago and Hans further prove that Nohr is willing to let pretty much every psycho join the army. This small army as well as Mikoto being Emmeryn II might suggest that Hoshido just isn't prepared to fight a war.

 

Those are actually...really good points for the side of Nohr.  My main point against this is if Nohr doesn't capture steady ground, and they go straight for the capital like they do in Conquest, they would get slaughtered because they wouldn't be able to survive their own sieges or long treks through enemy territory.  But the brutality thing is a very good point.  Though I'm in the opposite camp for the headcanon territory - Hoshido has way more soldiers, but Nohr has the more viscous, brutal ones, hence the reputation.  Hoshido is pampered, whilst Nohrians were raised on hardship, which probably makes this war less one-sided than I first thought.  But I still think Hoshido would be able to scrap a victory if they played their cards right, since they still have the loyalty of their soldiers and the reliability of resources.  Not to mention, there isn't in fighting within their territories, so they don't have to split their focus away from the war at hand to stop some rebels.  Yeah the rebels are kind of on Nohr's side (probably forced to give resources), but their desire for freedom leads them towards working with the Hoshidians, even allowing them secret passage into the kingdom and giving them a precious resource - safe resting places in enemy territory.

Sure, Mokushu exists, and they want to be independent from Hoshido as much as Cheve wants to be of Nohr, but Kotaro makes it clear that he's  only interested in helping Nohr if they give him land, and would betray them if he thought they would get in his way:

Kotaro: Is that so? Tell it to King Garon, you filthy mutt. When Nohr prevails, he has promised me a huge piece of land to expand my kingdom. No one will get in the way of Mokushu's future glory—not even a Nohrian princess!

Kotaro: I won't waste any more breath on you. In death, you shall keep my secrets! We'll tell King Garon his darling children died fighting the Hoshidans, heh heh. If you had just kept your mouths shut, you could have lived. Such a shame. Instead you will all be sacrifices on the altar of my grand ambition!

Soooooo yeah he wouldn't have helped Nohrians if it didn't suit him...And in Conquest, you kill him, so there's that.

Though again, preparedness is very important, so while I still think that Hoshido would beat out Nohr, those are some very good points in favor of the latter.

19 hours ago, Dandy Druid said:

Hoshido, and here's why I think why:

• Nohr is likely lacking on resources. Even if they do take some from neighboring lands, in a war of attrition, Hoshido can last longer. In contrast, Hoshido has plenty of resources.
• Hoshido's soldiers are more loyal. It's easier to fight for the side that's being invaded, because there is a purpose to fighting. As for the invading side, some may see the war as pointless and will be unmotivated.
• Nohr probably has more untrained soldiers, since most seemed to be criminals probably given the choice of being imprisoned or a soldier, with them opting as a soldier. It's not like they wanted to be a soldier.
• Nohr has a 2 sided war, with Cheve causing a ruckus. They'll have to somehow proportion troops in both the East and the West. Nestra is also in opposition to Nohr. Meanwhile, Hoshido only needs to worry about Mokushu, which is in the same general direction of Nohr. They still wouldn't need to order troops all over the place.
• Nohr does have better armor and better weapons, HOWEVER, if they are low on resources, we can assume that many soldiers are missing essentials like armor, weapons, and even shoes.

These are my thoughts exactly, though I'd like to point out that the Ice Tribe was making a stir too, which would only further distract Nohr from the war effort, and give Hoshido another potential ally (the Ice Tribe really didn't want to fight Hoshido in Birthright, but did it out of fear).

18 hours ago, starburst said:

I find this discussion really interesting, and have read various clever points for each side.

Regarding Nohr being ‘poor’, does it not have the greatest mines? The diverse ore from those mines would not only be highly valuable in trading but also extremely useful for amour and weapons. Granted, one cannot eat rubies or sapphires, but ore can be traded for food and goods (to the Hoshidian Merchants.)

The way I see it, Nohr is experiencing a succession of long, terrible winters and worse harvests when the story begins. (I have never considered that there is a literal eternal night in Nohr, as some supports suggest.) And no matter how powerful the House of Garon was, harsh nature will certainly accentuate the struggles within a realm.

In this scenario, starting a conquest campaign may be the best solution for an already bellicose people like Nohr: It strengthens the identity of the realm, activates chores on every level of the society and, most importantly, demonstrates power. Blame the ‘greedy Hoshidian Merchants’ for the supplies shortage and there is a foe to defeat. War is a political instrument.

I think that Nohr would win the war. They need to.

Like @Etrurian emperor, these are some great points in favor of Nohr, though I'm not sure if Hoshido would be allowed to trade with Nohr?  You'd think a war would put a prohibition on exchanging goods with the enemy, so if Nohr was relying at all on Hoshido for food (maybe some independent traders here or there), they would be completely cut off, or forced to do deals in secret (because prohibition creates demand, so).  Not to mention your argument with the political side of things - the same applies to Hoshido.  With a catchy insult like "Nohrian Scum" floating around, you can bet that political opinion of Nohr over in the eastern side of the continent is in the toilet, so it isn't likely that Nohr would be able to get many precious food traders with a reputation like that.

Sure, you might get a smuggler here or there, but nothing that you could fund a war on.

16 hours ago, Dandy Druid said:

Yeah, but that would mean the Nohrians would have to cross the gorge, which doesn't seem too easy. It's possible, but it would be slow and it would put the Hoshidans at a defensive advantage. There's a reason why both stories travel by boat- it's easier to arrive in Mokushu in bigger quantities. There would be a western front, but it wouldn't be as intense as a front from the South. Plus, either way, they're still in Hoshido, and not terribly spread out. Compared to Nohr, which not only has to invade Hoshido from multiple points, but also has to defend at Cheve. The Nohrians are just more screwed. Luckily, they're strong, but it's not a formula for long term success, imo.

The Bottomless Canyon is described to be hard to cross, with lightning that strikes at fliers and winds that threaten to knock terrestrial units off the cliffs.  Sure, it's not often explored in game, but you do see Lillith nearly getting struck by lightning in the start of the game; the Canyon is described as cursed for a reason.

11 hours ago, joshcja said:

A lot of people in this thread need to read up on what a standing army did to food production in period.

Also history in general. Pony matters.

Gameplay prespective. Outlaw!Bow knight has 9 move at the point where Kinshi gets AS. Nhor has exclusive access to the freeze and entrap staves. Generic kinshi's struggle to orko equivilant xl WL's and MK's without Very High End bows beastkiller can ohko Kinshi, as can basicly any tome a MK choses to wield. Nhor has Falco's and Kinshi.

Nhor has air advantage, infantry advantage, and a ton of horse.

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Ninja assasins are potentially deadly (eventually) but... entrap stave is Absolute Death immediately and can be wielded by the Nhor equivilants (Servant/Adventurer) or it can just be strapped to a horse/horsebird.

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Nhor has an infinite supply of disposable shock troops (faceless) that can be dropped anywhere by magic. This is really stupid and begs the question... why does hoshido even exist?

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The main army on both routes belongs to Nhor. It marches unimpeded over the gap and blitzes hoshido in record time.

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The gaps in plate are filled by fucking chain mail, leather, and more plate.. Knights can hardly even move when fully armored without a pony which is also armored. That is how much metal is on those dudes. Katanas do not cut steel no matter what the movies tell you. They were an officers side arm (similar to a cav saber) used as a last resort or vs unarmored nerds as a policeing tool. Samurai in battle primarily used bows, polearms, and heavy blunt shit. From horseback.

There is a reason every single weapon in midevil times was triangular and pointy (splits mail) or blunt and heavy (ignores mail entirely). Mail (ring or chain) was not nobility exclusive.

Japanese armor was noble only and used boiled leather with steel strike plates. This is not chain mail and it's absolutely not plate. It was to stop Untipped arrows and deflect light slashing/stabbing blows by flat blades from vital areas.

Yes but so does flying pony.  It matters too.

Ninja are very deadly, it's just that we see them being used more as shock troops than the assassins that they really are.  And what the heck is a horsebird???  Nohr doesn't have pegasi, if that's what you mean.

No they really don't - Faceless have heavy costs, since they don't usually listen to their summoners, even and often killing the people who summon them.  So Faceless often cost more than they're really worth.

You have a point about the gaps, buuuuuuuuuut

Hoshido has access to blunt armor crushing weapons

In fact, I will give props to @Shoblongoo, blunt, crushing weapons are much better against iron armor than thin weapons meant to get through chinks in armor.  I will admit that I messed that up (^^""""), but that doesn't mean Nohr would be the only nation with access to these kinds of weapons.  In fact, the Kanabo is even designed to break horse legs, so there's your anti-cavalry.

Also on your previous point, @joshcja about " Hoshido is... calling up levies, handing them spears, and slapping the nobility up front.", spears are actually some of the best weapons you can have in warfare because of their reach, and not just anybody can use, so

Not to mention Japanese armor is actually really good.  It is plate armor, so it would be susceptible to warhammers and maces and the like, but not swords, arrows, or anything like that.  It can hold up against Europeon weapons.

Edited May 31, 2018 by Soleater

[Dandy Druid]

7 hours ago, Etrurian emperor said:

I don't think crossing the gorge is that hard. The Nohrian army crosses it with Corrin pretty early in the story and I believe that while Corrin's army went by boat Garon's army crossed through the gorge. 

A possible Nohrian strategy could be to send half of their Army by boat to Mokushu to defend it from any Hoshidan attack while the other half first starts by ravaging Chev and knocking them out of the war early. Then the army that razed Chev marches eastwards to Hoshido while the army in Mokushu also goes on the offensive. This would eliminate the need to fight on two fronts while making the presumably smaller Hoshidan army be the one that fights on two fronts. 

see below.

1 hour ago, Soleater said:

The Bottomless Canyon is described to be hard to cross, with lightning that strikes at fliers and winds that threaten to knock terrestrial units off the cliffs.  Sure, it's not often explored in game, but you do see Lillith nearly getting struck by lightning in the start of the game; the Canyon is described as cursed for a reason.

My main issue with the Bottomless Canyon is that early in the game, a small force crosses it. Imagine a battalion or a few trying to cross it, with all their supplies across those unstable bridges and lightning strikes in the background. It's possible, but it's a huge risk with a high chance of failure. I think it would become more of a liability than an advantage.

And even if they do that, they're still splitting up their army in 3 different ways: The Bottomless Canyon Crew, The Sea Crew, and the Homefront Crew (for anti-Cheve)