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How much do you think this game would need to sell?


Arvin
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pretty sure awakening did better than that, and the switch is well on it's way to beating the wii u's lifetime sales, it will do fine.

or the switch already beat it I can't remember.

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@thecrimsonflash Switch surpassed Wii U's lifetime sales of 13.5 million units a little while back and it's only been out for little over a year. I think it's sitting pretty close to 15 million units sold and not slowing down.

Wii sold 105+ million units so Switch still has a ways to go. DS/3DS sold around 60 million units as well. Somewhat disappointed in Nintendo for not really releasing much on it after they said support for it would continue for a long while yet in 2017.

 

Edited by grinus
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6 hours ago, IonicAmalgam said:

Warriors sold over a million, so I assume the same amount. VGCharts for some reason says they sold less, but Koei officially said they sold a mil so.

They said shipped a million. That means that for all intents and purposes, nintendo did sell that amount to resellers, but not that 1 million people bought the game. Which is typically what "sales" are referring to.

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5 hours ago, Cysx said:

They said shipped a million. That means that for all intents and purposes, nintendo did sell that amount to resellers, but not that 1 million people bought the game. Which is typically what "sales" are referring to.

VGCharts says less than half a mil sold which doesn't add up

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Are you asking what their break-even point would be? Without any insight into their internal costs, we can't even project an educated guess.

If you are asking how much we think the game will sell, I will take a shot in the dark and say 1.2 million.

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16 hours ago, Boring Panda said:

That's because FE Warriors didn't sell well, actually :(: the numbers are not wrong, just disappointing.

They're not wrong though. That's some impressive good will from the resellers(which isn't a thing) at play if both of those numbers are real.

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Well Echoes did around half million so not too great like Awakening/Fates (as expected) even FE Warriors beat it. With the Switch being a obvious popular console hybrid plus from my evidence of some popular stuff that's in the game already and will likely be in it (except likely no kids attached to the romance/marriage especially since that was poorly received) plus its getting alot of views I'm expecting it to reach 1 mill for the english one in a good amount of time at this rate and positive reception already from their video. I expect it to at least do around between Awakening and Fates maybe even better of course time will eventually tell.

Edited by Regal Edelgard Axe Master
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1 hour ago, Cysx said:

They're not wrong though. That's some impressive good will from the resellers(which isn't a thing) at play if both of those numbers are real.

If what you mean is that they went overboard with the statistics of how much they thought the game was going to sell, then yes, I agree :(:. It did sell well by general standards, but not nearly the same as past warriors games did, and not even close to Fates (1.6 million sales in it's first fiscal year) or Awakening (1.9 million sales in it's first fiscal year). Since it's a crossover and not even a strategy game, they should have been more realistic with the shipping. Hyrule Warriors didn't have that problem since it's got similar rpg elements to the main Zelda series, even with the hack n' slash.

1 hour ago, False Prophet said:

So, can we learn anything from Echoes and Warriors' sells to make a forecast for Three Houses?

I don't think SoV nor Warriors can serve as a forecast, to be honest. Warriors because it's a crossover, not everyone cared for it (in regards to the FE fandom). And as a general rule, spin-offs and remakes don't sell as much as the games from the main series, so SoV was never going to sell as well as Awafates did, and they knew it.

I think 3H will sell at least 1 million.

Edited by Boring Panda
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28 minutes ago, Boring Panda said:

If what you mean is that they went overboard with the statistics of how much they thought the game was going to sell, then yes, I agree :(:. It did sell well by general standards, but not nearly the same as past warriors games did, and not even close to Fates (1.6 million sales in it's first fiscal year) or Awakening (1.9 million sales in it's first fiscal year). Since it's a crossover and not even a strategy game, they should have been more realistic with the shipping. Hyrule Warriors didn't have that problem since it's got similar rpg elements to the main Zelda series, even with the hack n' slash.

Eh. I mostly meant that VGchartz is wrong to be honest. That being said, even though they've built a reputation of being wrong(somehow), I don't really have proof.

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4 hours ago, Cysx said:

Eh. I mostly meant that VGchartz is wrong to be honest. That being said, even though they've built a reputation of being wrong(somehow), I don't really have proof.

Their numbers are largely estimates(I want to say it's even based on stores they call, and extrapolating from there), and those estimates have gotten worse as buying games online and through online eshops have gotten more prevalent. It's much harder to track those sales than ones from Gamestops and mom and pop retailers. 

Edited by Slumber
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5 hours ago, Cysx said:

Eh. I mostly meant that VGchartz is wrong to be honest. That being said, even though they've built a reputation of being wrong(somehow), I don't really have proof.

Oh, actually, I don't really follow Vgchartz, they are absolutely not trustworthy.

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On 6/18/2018 at 12:54 PM, Cysx said:

They said shipped a million. That means that for all intents and purposes, nintendo did sell that amount to resellers, but not that 1 million people bought the game. Which is typically what "sales" are referring to.

Shipped effectively means sold to publishers, so this is more or less a moot point.

5 hours ago, Boring Panda said:

but not nearly the same as past warriors games did,

What. Warriors games have always been fairly niche (for example, DW9, released on three platforms, has only sold 750k). FEW's sales are about on-par with HW, and both of them had 80% of their sales in the West.
And as a general rule of thumb: when do spinoffs sell as much as main series titles?

Anyways, I'd expect 1.5 million sales or so out of it.

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3 hours ago, The DanMan said:

Shipped effectively means sold to publishers, so this is more or less a moot point.

What. Warriors games have always been fairly niche (for example, DW9, released on three platforms, has only sold 750k). FEW's sales are about on-par with HW, and both of them had 80% of their sales in the West.
And as a general rule of thumb: when do spinoffs sell as much as main series titles?

Anyways, I'd expect 1.5 million sales or so out of it.

It's a fact HW has been more successful, regardless of shipping statements. And in regards to that "general rule of thumb", that is exactly what I said in the same post you quoted from me. Spin off and remakes never sell as well as games from the main series, so the statistics and estimates they make for them in order to be considered a success are always different. That is why I said Warriors and SoV don't serve as a forecast for 3H.

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4 hours ago, The DanMan said:

Shipped effectively means sold to publishers, so this is more or less a moot point.

It would be if everyone wasn't exclusively focused on sales to players and sales to players only. As I said somewhere else, if we're to rejoice specifically when the game sells one million units(which is silly but actually how things tend to work), this hasn't happened yet. Had Xenoblade 2 "only" shipped 1 million instead of selling that number, it wouldn't have appeared on Nintendo's million seller resume and a lot of us would assume it hasn't sold all that well in the end.

It matters because our very system makes it so.

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