July Legendary Banner Expectations

[Johann]

NEXT MONTH'S THREAD:

Please use the most recent thread if you intend to make posts about future banners. Feel free to use this thread for analysis of trends, etc.

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Once again, it's time to think about who will appear on the next Legendary banner, especially if you're tempted to use more orbs and weigh the current banner(s) against the next one.

CONFIRMABLE: The following heroes named are confirmed to return based on the notifications, leaving the last open slot for a blue hero, as neither Fjorm or Ephraim will return.

• Legendary Ryoma
• Legendary Lyn
• Legendary Robin
• New Blue Legendary Hero - expected to be Earth type, going by the season trend. See below for speculation and analysis on this hero.

SEASONALS: Normally, we get 4 seasonals, often 2 from varying banners, and never have we seen 2 of the same color from the same original banner (such as Spring Lucina + Spring Xander). Hector's banner only had 3 seasonals, so we know they're willing to break this trend, though that may have been due to the 3 heroes on the NY banner. We have a surplus of green seasonals, so I am expecting two green seasonals.

• Winter Lissa - I'm 100% certain she'll appear (I know I said this last month, but I mean, come on, how long can they put her off?)
• NY Camilla - Overdue from the NY banner. There are also no seasonal reds until we get into the Bridal Bloom banner (Tharja)
• LA Lilina - Seems very likely to me as they appear to prefer a bit of diversity with unit types of the same color.
• LA Hector - Seems highly unlikely as he shares a weapon and movement type with Lissa. They might consider Distant Counter and Bold Fighter too good to put in the same color.
• Spring Alfonse - Extremely unlikely given the glut of seasonal greens in waiting from older banners
• Spring Sharena - Same as Alfonse
• Spring Catria - Good odds, only blue seasonal til the brides
• Spring Kagero - Decent odds, only colorless seasonal until summer returns. However, there are two fliers already confirmed, and it's possible that they won't want a surplus of fliers on this banner. They seem to have no problem with bringing back old colorless heroes, as well.

REGULAR 5★ HEROES: A tricky thing to predict, but in theory it should be 4 or 5 units, some of which are rather recent.

• Brave Roy - Very good odds. The last remaining Brave Hero to get a rerun on Legendary banners, and also is next in line after Sigurd for a reappearance from non-seasonals. Part of me suspects that they want to get all 4 Brave Heroes out of the way before the new CYL heroes appear.
• Chrom (cavalry) - Low odds, main competition being Brave Roy. Strange to me that he'd be passed over for Leif in the June banner, but that may have been due to the apparent balancing of movement types in that banner.
• Fallen Robin (M) - Very low odds. The only non-seasonal green I could envision getting on the banner since he'd follow Myrrh. However, we have a lot of green seasonals to get through, and putting him on the same banner as Winter Lissa means both Bold + Vengeful Fighter in the same color pool. I don't think they would do that.
• Ishtar - Good odds. Following Morgan (F), Ishtar would be next in line for newly released blues.
• Shiro - Possible, he'd be the first normal blue hero (excluding Brave Lucina) to make a reappearance on a Legendary banner.
• Other blues - Quite a few who would make a nice debut, including Hinoka, Nephenee, Ninian, and Azura
• Takumi - Good odds, previous colorless have made reappearances, Takumi and Faye are next in line. While I think certain rare skills like Close Counter are taken into consideration when they make a banner, I don't think the other potential colorless heroes have anything that would make it "too good" of a pool. As far as I can tell, these 3 colorless are equally likely.
• Faye - Same as Takumi.
• Hinoka (bow) - Good odds, the only recent colorless 5★ exclusive, it's inevitable that she'll make an appearance on one of the next few banners. I do think with two flying legendaries on the banner, they might not include her this time, yet I could also see them deciding to only have one repeat per color per banner, meaning she'd be in as long as Spring Kagero isn't.
• Jaffar - Zero chance, I just wanted to include him here as he's the next colorless unit in line after Takumi and Faye. He's also the last one before they started the cycle over again.

MY PREDICTED LIST: This is my own guess based on everything above. I'm most confident about green and least confident about colorless.

• Legendary Ryoma
• NY Camilla
• Brave Roy
• Legendary Lyn
• Winter Lissa
• LA Lilina
• New Blue Legendary Hero (earth)
• Spring Catria
• Ishtar
• Legendary Robin
• Takumi
• Hinoka (bow)

WHO'S THAT POKEMON NEW HERO? I didn't want to add this part in the discussion last time since I figure there are enough threads about it, but the discussion showed me that it's far too important a thing to not come up. I expect this hero to be Earth type, because every time a new Legendary launches,  the seasons consist of that hero's element, and the following hero's (it's currently Fire + Earth at Hector's debut). I'm personally not going to entertain things like "Alm with a blue bow" cuz that's just silly to me. It may also be worth noting that so far, it's gone female > female > male > male > female female > male > male, which does suggest that a female hero is more likely.

• Micaiah - Blue tome user. Adding Hector showed us that they're not afraid to use heroes from the same game at this point. Some people have argued that her Dark affinity in RD makes her closer to Earth type since many of the dark-described dragons are Earth Dragons. I just figure she'll get a Legendary eventually since she's a main character who's popular and doesn't use a sword. I suspect she's the most likely.
• Bruno - Edited in because I forgot about him. One never knows, though I suspect they have story ideas for him before we can ever summon him (CYL aside).
• Ylgr - Her being a blue tome user is not out of the question, though I suppose it's a little more likely that she'd be a staff user.
• Other OCs - Hrid and King Gustav are the only ones we've heard of, so there's always a possibility that they could be introduced on a Legendary banner before a we are introduced to the character in story (like with Gunnthra) EDIT: Hrid's full art shows him with a sword, so he's out of the running this month.
• Corrin - Blue dragon. Since s/he is a water dragon, I'd sooner expect her/him to appear as a Water legendary.
• Robin - Blue tome male version, Grandmaster style. Seems highly unlikely to me that we'd get two Robins before anybody else from Awakening though.
• Some major villain character - Plenty of dragons to pick from for final bosses. A few standout antagonists like Reinhardt or Sephiran would possibly be blue tomes, as well.

FUTURE ANALYSIS:

• August will contain Fjorm and Gunnthra, with no returning red announced. This strongly suggests that August's hero will be red, and Robin will return.
• September will contain Ike and Hector, and October will contain Ephraim. This suggests that September's hero will be blue again, though it's possible that we see July's new blue hero appear in September and we end up getting a new colorless.
• I suspect that August's banner will contain 4 seasonals (guessing Spring Sharena, LA Hector, and 2 other units between the brides and Spring Kagero).
• I suspect September's banner will have 3 seasonals (remaining Bride(s)/Kagero and starting into the summer banner). I would be utterly shocked if they put LA Hector on the same banner as Legendary Hector.
• If those above two points are accurate, then by October, seasonals would be back to a normal 4 per banner deal (depending on what we get in upcoming seasonal banners). What's notable is that the seasonal banners have been more balanced in terms of color, so by this point we should be done with the excessive greens.

Link to last month's thread: June Banner Expectations

Edited July 31, 2018 by Johann

[Thane]

This is very detailed, thank you for your hard work.

Your suggestions are all interesting too, but outside of OC's, I personally believe they'll stick to main characters for now. That would leave us with Micaiah, Robin, and Corrin. I'm hoping for the first, and that Corrin can just get a refine soon seeing as I've invested a lot in her.

[Johann]

4 minutes ago, Thane said:

This is very detailed, thank you for your hard work.

Your suggestions are all interesting too, but outside of OC's, I personally believe they'll stick to main characters for now. That would leave us with Micaiah, Robin, and Corrin. I'm hoping for the first, and that Corrin can just get a refine soon seeing as I've invested a lot in her.

Based on the long-term color analysis, I'm suspecting we'll get Marth or Roy as our red hero in August and Female Corrin as our blue hero in in September.

[Sentinel07]

My personal guess is that, with Fjorm and Gunnthra as Blue and Green, Hrid and Ylgr will occupy Red and Colorless one way or another.

Then again, given their apparent reluctantness to do any more Colorless Heroes for some unknown reason, who knows how viable that theory is.

[Ice Dragon]

19 minutes ago, Sentinel07 said:

Then again, given their apparent reluctantness to do any more Colorless Heroes for some unknown reason, who knows how viable that theory is.

It's no surprise that they'd be reluctant to release more colorless Legendary Heroes.

Colorless is the color that is easiest to screw up and either cause imbalance or create a worthless character.

• Bows are always going to be judged against Jakob, Lyn, and Cordelia in their respective movement types and against Brave Bow and Firesweep Bow.
• Daggers are shit. You know something is seriously wrong with a weapon type when the highest-tiered character is a dancer with a wholly unimpressive stat line.
• Dazzling Staff makes staves very difficult to balance and utterly obnoxious to deal with.

[Vaximillian]

4 hours ago, Johann said:

Ylgr - It's not at all clear what the plan with original characters are, but Ylgr does carry a book in her art. Her being a blue tome user is not out of the question.

It is unconfirmed that she carries a book. She does have a pouch, but it looks too small for a book to fit in:

2 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

Daggers are shit.

Which is why I’m scared of the possibility of them screwing up/tainting CYL Celica with a dagger because “golden dagger” and shit.

Edited June 30, 2018 by Vaximillian

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I personally think we're getting Micaiah. She makes the most sense, and I'm not sure they'd really put in another Hoshido sibling before a Nohr one. I suppose Robin could be it, but we still haven't gotten Chrom or Lucina yet. That narrows it down to Micaiah.

[EricaofRenais]

I am kind of hoping for Micaiah and I hope they have her in her Yune given third tier class since that is my favorite of her designs in RD.

[XRay]

8 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

Bows are always going to be judged against Jakob, Lyn, and Cordelia in their respective movement types and against Brave Bow and Firesweep Bow.

They can just do what they did with lance fliers, with Tana and Shigure being slight variations of Cordelia's offensive stat spread.

7 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

Daggers are shit. You know something is seriously wrong with a weapon type when the highest-tiered character is a dancer with a wholly unimpressive stat line.

I think that has more to do with the lack of Weapons they have. Firesweep Dagger might be overpowered, but I think Brave Dagger is pretty reasonable for offense. Alternatives to Firesweep Dagger can be Windsweep and Watersweep Daggers, preferably still allowing the unit to double.

8 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

Dazzling Staff makes staves very difficult to balance and utterly obnoxious to deal with.

Wait until you see Firesweep Daggers!

[MacLovin]

I really want a Leg!Micaiah tbh.

However, I don't know if she's really an earth type. 

[Troykv]

I wonder if the next Seasonal Unit would also being a Wind Elemental.... After all it seems the second and fifth weeks of the Hector's Seasons will be Wind Elemental.

Which characters you would imagine that fit the Blue + Wind Combo?

[Lewyn]

I thought legendary Miciah was going to be a staff wielder, her promoted classes can use staves.  I think it would be a waste to have her as a blue.  

I think with how conservative they are in their choices, there aren't many real possibilities of who the unit could be.  

@Johann Great analysis. 

[Johann]

9 hours ago, Vaximillian said:

It is unconfirmed that she carries a book. She does have a pouch, but it looks too small for a book to fit in:

Oh, looked like a book to me when I saw it in game. Interestingly, she's the only shown character in the game who can't fight currently.

3 hours ago, Troykv said:

I wonder if the next Seasonal Unit would also being a Wind Elemental.... After all it seems the second and fifth weeks of the Hector's Seasons will be Wind Elemental.

Which characters you would imagine that fit the Blue + Wind Combo?

I suspect the elements are going to go Fire (current) > Earth > Wind > Water, but I guess we'll see. If it does, the red hero would be wind (Marth? Roy would be saved for Fire) and the blue hero would be water (Corrin).

As far as a Blue + Wind combo, I suppose they could make Takumi and have Fujin Yumi emphasize the "light" aspect over the wind aspect. Sephiran could work as well. There are also countless ways they could use dragons too, and OCs can be whatever they want them to be of course.

[May]

I think they would be more open to introduce OC legendary heroes when they start to revolve around the story. 

[Johann]

1 hour ago, Aera said:

I think they would be more open to introduce OC legendary heroes when they start to revolve around the story. 

You may be right about that. I also suspect that they'll use OCs when they feel like there's a unit type that's not very well represented, like how Gunnthra was our second cavalry green tome user.

Might be somewhat off-topic, but would people accept summonable OCs who weren't legendaries? Like if you could get Laegjarn, Laevatainn, Loki, and Helbindi as normal characters, what do you guys think about that?

[Lewyn]

5 minutes ago, Johann said:

You may be right about that. I also suspect that they'll use OCs when they feel like there's a unit type that's not very well represented, like how Gunnthra was our second cavalry green tome user.

Might be somewhat off-topic, but would people accept summonable OCs who weren't legendaries? Like if you could get Laegjarn, Laevatainn, Loki, and Helbindi as normal characters, what do you guys think about that?

I prefer OCs over any other character type in these legendary banners.  Alts of existing popular characters is just boring, I was so hyped and excited with Fjorm and then Gunnthra...and then we got slightly better Ike, Ephraim on a horse, and another alt and another alt.  Hardly special.  I would also be up for legendary characters that were unplayable in games, like Anri and such.   

Guess I'm in the minority cause we haven't gotten an OC in half a year.  Jesus.  

[Roflolxp54]

It's also not impossible for Eliwood to appear as a legendary lance unit, especially as Lyn and Hector have been added as LH units. As for element, while he could easily fit Fire, he actually has the Anima affinity in his home game, so technically, any element (well, Earth and Wind at this point since we already have Fjorm and Ephraim for Water and Fire respectively) could easily fit him, not unlike how Hector was given the Fire element despite actually having the Thunder affinity in his home game. And him using a weapon type different from his main weapon type (sword) isn't out of the question as that has been shown with Lyn (bows when she is normally associated with swords) and, to a lesser extent, Robin (dragon breath when they're normally associated with tomes and swords).

Edited July 1, 2018 by Roflolxp54

[Johann]

2 minutes ago, Lewyn said:

I prefer OCs over any other character type in these legendary banners.  Alts of existing popular characters is just boring, I was so hyped and excited with Fjorm and then Gunnthra...and then we got slightly better Ike, Ephraim on a horse, and another alt and another alt.  Hardly special.  I would also be up for legendary characters that were unplayable in games, like Anri and such.   

Guess I'm in the minority cause we haven't gotten an OC in half a year.  Jesus.  

I realized that I forgot Bruno as a possible new blue legendary hero in my list, so I went and added him, though who knows what they'll do with him.

[May]

27 minutes ago, Johann said:

I realized that I forgot Bruno as a possible new blue legendary hero in my list, so I went and added him, though who knows what they'll do with him.

I think he will be in Book 3. I really hope he is recruitable through story means in addition to legendary banners, like Fjorm. 

[NegativeExponents-]

Still waiting on legendary bow Alm so I hope this month is when he finally gets his Legendary alt.

10 hours ago, Johann said:

Might be somewhat off-topic, but would people accept summonable OCs who weren't legendaries? Like if you could get Laegjarn, Laevatainn, Loki, and Helbindi as normal characters, what do you guys think about that?

That’d be really cool! I could see maybe Laegjarm or Loki being legendary heroes at some point but not the rest. As someone who would really like to use Helbindi and Laevatainn this could be an easy and convenient way to add them as playable characters. It’d also be a nice way in general to add more varied units without just making endless alts of the same characters over and over again.

[Humanoid]

19 minutes ago, NegativeExponents- said:

That’d be really cool! I could see maybe Laegjarm or Loki being legendary heroes at some point but not the rest. As someone who would really like to use Helbindi and Laevatainn.

Same, I'd prefer them as regular units rather than legendaries. Ideally just one would be a legendary, whoever the most senior is I guess (Laegjarn if we're going for not-evil?). Making all the OCs into legendaries would have an undesirable side-effect of it being plain unoptimal to ever run them together because of conflicting blessings. Want to run Legendary Alfonse, Sharena, Anna and Fjorm together? Welcome to mid-2017 with no blessing buffs.

While I don't run themed teams personally, I imagine the current system would kinda suck for someone who wanted to run Legendary Lyn and Hector together, or Alm and Celica in future. Sure lacking buffs isn't the end of the world, but it's still disappointing for those wanting to build their A-teams around units like these.

 

EDIT: How about letting us give blessings of other elements to Legendary units? Bit more flexibility in team compositions wouldn't hurt.

Edited July 1, 2018 by Humanoid

[Othin]

4 hours ago, NegativeExponents- said:

Still waiting on legendary bow Alm so I hope this month is when he finally gets his Legendary alt.

I think this is decently likely. Alm is one of the few lords who hasn't had a version since CYL, and if they're planning on introducing other bow colors through legendary heroes eventually, he's one of the more fitting candidates.

I'm not sure how long they plan on leaving red bow and blue bow sitting there without any actual units having them, but I'm sure they'll add both at some point.

[Simpsons138]

If we go for a few other patterns, we also have a few things:

• The character is from a newer or older game from the previous Legendary Hero, being Ike>Ephraim>Robin>Lyn>Ryoma>Hector
• They are important characters from the game, not necessarily lords like Robin or Ryoma
• After two heroes, the gender is switched, like Fjorm and Gunnthra>Ike and Ephraim>Robin and Lyn>Ryoma and Hector
• If multiple characters are important, they will be added on a later banner
• They are an OC from Heroes

So from this, we can also deduce that the next legendary hero, aside from being a Blue legendary, the character could be a female character from any of these games:

• Sacred Stones
• Path of Radiance
• Radiant Dawn
• Awakening
• Fates
• Heroes OC

Who could they be is a good question, but another thing is that some of the Legendary Heroes scored high in both CYL event, specifically the top 20, but that may be coincidence as everything else

[Johann]

8 hours ago, NegativeExponents- said:

That’d be really cool! I could see maybe Laegjarm or Loki being legendary heroes at some point but not the rest. As someone who would really like to use Helbindi and Laevatainn this could be an easy and convenient way to add them as playable characters. It’d also be a nice way in general to add more varied units without just making endless alts of the same characters over and over again.

I think with the large number of sword using lords, Laegjarn and Laevatein's chances of becoming legendaries anytime soon drops significantly. They're competing for that slot against the likes of Marth, Roy, Sigurd, etc.

[Zapp Branniglenn]

I'm gonna go with my generic Water elemental F!Corrin legendary prediction. If she's blue then that gives them their opportunity to finally powercreep Nowi who's been asking for it. 

As for the next banner, I know that no matter what I'll be pulling red and green. As both will assuredly have seasonals I need and Legendaries I haven't pulled.