Was Soren's 3-3 Stratagem a Surefire Success?

[Interdimensional Observer]

One of my favorite chapters in all of FE from a combined narrative-gameplay approach is RD 3-3: River Crossing.

For those who don't remember. It follows the failed attempt to delay the Begnion Central Army, after Tibarn tragically united with the Greil Mercenaries and Gallia. The Begnion Central Army led by Zelgius is on the east bank of the Ribahn River is on the defensive, and the Laguz Alliance is on the west side has been on the offensive, although the balance is stalemating here. The BCA is too powerful for the LA to defeat in an open battle, so Soren devises for the Laguz Alliance to gain ground and continue its invasion of Begnion. The plan goes as follows:

1. Skrimir leads the mass of the Laguz Alliance over the Ribahn into battle with Begnion Central Army's mass. This commits the BCA's forces, and also satisfies the base desire of the Hawks and Beasts to fight.
2. Tibarn and some other Hawks drop Ranulf and a handpicked Beast elite force behind the front lines to duel with Zelgius and the other high officers. Foggy and cloudy weather helps keep the airdrop a covert surprise. This distracts Zelgius et al., both from commanding the mass and from the third part of Soren's plan.
3. A second group of Hawks drops the special forces of the Greil Mercenaries and friends into the BCA's base camp filled with supplies, which is lightly defended due to the battle being fought. Ike and co. cause chaos and destruction through the camps, which causes the Begnion Senators there to panic. In their hysteria, the Senators, who are higher on the chain of command than Zelgius despite a lack of military knowhow, will recall Zelgius to defend them. Zelgius will thus withdraw from the masses from the battle to defend the Senators. The implication of this is that it will allow the LA to take the ground the BCA yields, causing their current position to become untenable and the Begnion Central Army will retreat to elsewhere.

 

That is the plan. And guess what? It works perfectly!

However, judging from an IRL perspective, was Soren's plan as ironclad as it appears to be in the game? Clearly the foggy weather played a significant role in letting steps 2 and 3 happen, but I'm not so concerned with the fog here. It existed, Soren used it, it means the strategy isn't perfect, but it strategists have to be adaptive and use plans that are context sensitive. 

What I am concerned with is how necessary was it that Zelgius withdraw the mass to save the base camp? Soren's plan depends on Zelgius doing just this.

Zelgius is a loyal soldier, and while the very next fight has him frustrating the Senators by doing their command, but his own way which angers them, here he follows their pleas in full- abandoning the front to save them. Yet, if Zelgius had the bone of slim disagreement which he does in the following battle, would it have been possible for him to keep the BCA mass forces engaged and still have sent a force to restore order to the camps?

The Begnion Central Army is made out to be a juggernaut that cannot be defeated in direct combat, and yet the Laguz Alliance had already committed its mass in an open battle whilst the camp attack was underway- the very thing they're supposed to be unbeatable at. Could Zelgius have taken like 5% of the mass at most to the camps and kept the remaining 95% in battle and salvaged a victory via Laguz extermination? Sounds as though it has some plausibility to it.

On the other hand, the BCA is said in the prior chapter to be heavily dependent on its supplies with it being so large. That doesn't seem to stop it from being very mobile as well from what the Kauku Caves chapter (3-8) suggests, despite the Laguz Alliance presumably being more mobile due to not needing to lug around weapons and armor and having smaller numbers. Yet this aside, the point of the supplies still matters. Would the work of the Greil Mercenaries have been so thorough Zelgius needed to pull back to regroup and refuel? Even assuming Ike's team outside of gameplay burned a lot more tents and crates, how much could they have possibly destroyed?

 

An alternative to Soren's perfect outcome that appears to me would be that Zelgius does keep the BCA masses engaged while restoring order to the camps. The LA knowing the BCA is now logistically hindered, orders its masses still locked in battle with the BCA to make a planned retreat. Zelgius can't follow because the metaphoric stomach of the BCA has been emptied, but owing to its sheer size, he is still able to hold the Ribahn's east bank to the LA's chagrin and the battle remains a stalemate with neither side having actually lost that much.

 

I call myself someone who wants to be a historian, but I'm not too familiar with military history, I find battle history boring to study. Does real world military conflict historically approve or disapprove of the perfection of Soren's plan? Were there cases where a successful supplies raid coordinated with a battle not cause the raided side to retreat/lose?

The only instance I can think of, which supports Soren, is the Yuan Shao vs. Cao Cao battle, Guandu I think its called (thanks Dynasty Warriors!). However, this doesn't exactly support Soren, since I believe I read both sides were on the verge of collapse, and the supply raid was just the straw that broke the camel's back. The BCA on the other hand is virtually unharmed and fresh at this point, and it has a power advantage over the LA which I imagine Yuan Shao lacked.

[Icelerate]

I think chapter 3-3 is Soren's best strategy and the best strategy in Tellius. I think his strategy in chapter 3-7 is weaker because he assumes Begnion won't supply Daein with intel. Begnion not supplying Daein with intel is bad writing because even if the Senators are dicks, Zelgius could have done so. Also, why should Begnion not give simple intel if it makes their job easier since Daein is on their side? 

As for his plan not being perfect or surefire success. Isn't that a good thing since humans aren't perfect?

1 hour ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

The Begnion Central Army is made out to be a juggernaut that cannot be defeated in direct combat, and yet the Laguz Alliance had already committed its mass in an open battle whilst the camp attack was underway- the very thing they're supposed to be unbeatable at. Could Zelgius have taken like 5% of the mass at most to the camps and kept the remaining 95% in battle and salvaged a victory via Laguz extermination? Sounds as though it has some plausibility to it.

 

No because the whole point of Zelgius is that he's extremely charismatic, strong and intelligent and without him, the front line would collapse due to being disorganized as we see in chapter 3-2. Sure that was the Northern army which is weaker than the Begnion Central Army but it was still powerful in numbers. It just didn't have a competent leader.  

Edited July 2, 2018 by Icelerate

[Ertrick36]

Overall, no tactical plan is 100% foolproof.  Even the best, most well thought out plans have a chance of going wrong, and the more specific and drawn out the plan is, the higher that chance is.  Even if nothing goes wrong, a great strategist might still change their plan if they find a new weakness they can take advantage of (I think of Canderous Ordo in Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic, and how he diverted from a strategy to deliver a swift and decisive defeat to his enemy early on).

Historically speaking, the most successful strategists are ones who are adaptive.  The most notorious example is D-Day - the operation to drive the Nazis out of Normandy during World War 2 and secure a foothold in French land.  While it was not as much of a failure as the brass thought it could be, things still didn't quite go as planned; some troops who dropped in behind the enemy lines were killed, units got all mixed up (thus messing with the chain of command), and not many landed where they were supposed to.  Yet, as we very well know, that operation still ended in success, with American and British troops gaining much lost ground to finally turn the tables on the terrifying and powerful Nazi Germany that had conquered so much of Europe.  And that's because the allied troops were able to adapt to everything going wrong because the brass knew things could go wrong and prepared them for that situation.

I don't know if there were any examples of supply raids against powerful nations that were successful.  In fact, I think the defense forces would technically be stronger in numbers because most military giants don't send the majority of their overall forces on the frontlines; in contrast, the majority of their forces are either in reserves or defending whatever territories they have.  Even if the raid was successful in causing a panic, there are plenty of other forces the senators could call upon to defend them.  They may not be as strong as Zelgius and his forces, but they should still be perfectly capable of defending some diplomats against a small band of mercs.

Though then again, in the worlds of FE swords are often the best weapons to use (when in reality they're poor warfare weapons; polearms and blunt weapons are superior in practically every way and are easier to use) and foot troops are on equal fighting ground with mounted knights, so maybe the series doesn't always have a proper grasp of what's realistic.  And don't tell me about manaketes or magic; I'm talking about the more nuanced fictional elements that only serve to make a story less immersive.

[Shadow Mir]

5 hours ago, Icelerate said:

I think chapter 3-3 is Soren's best strategy and the best strategy in Tellius. I think his strategy in chapter 3-7 is weaker because he assumes Begnion won't supply Daein with intel. Begnion not supplying Daein with intel is bad writing because even if the Senators are dicks, Zelgius could have done so. Also, why should Begnion not give simple intel if it makes their job easier since Daein is on their side? 

Because Begnion is using Daein as a pawn, and thus doesn't really care if it gets wiped out.

Anyways, to the topic at hand, I doubt it - most armies in real life would not have most of their troops out on the front lines. They'd either be in reserve or defending whatever territories they have. Especially if said territories had key strategic locations like supply camps.

Edited July 3, 2018 by Levant Mir Celestia

[Icelerate]

1 minute ago, Levant Mir Celestia said:

Because Begnion is using Daein as a pawn, and thus doesn't really care if it gets wiped out.

Anyways, to the topic at hand, I doubt it - most armies in real life would not have most of their troops out on the front lines. They'd either be in reserve or defending whatever territories they have. Especially if said territories had key strategic locations like supply camps.

Why would you want your pawn to get wiped out when you can use them in the future if they don't get wiped out? Why would Zelgius want this? 

Edited July 3, 2018 by Icelerate

[Shadow Mir]

7 minutes ago, Icelerate said:

Why would you want your pawn to get wiped out when you can use them in the future if they don't get wiped out? Why would Zelgius want this? 

That's a good question. But then again, we are talking about a game where Ludveck used his own men as fodder to get at Elincia (by way of giving them false instructions). Anyways, I doubt Zelgius was aware of the fact that Daein was on Begnion's side (or if he was, then I don't remember anything that indicated this).

EDIT: Doh. Black Knight. Damn it.

Edited July 3, 2018 by Levant Mir Celestia

[Icelerate]

3 minutes ago, Levant Mir Celestia said:

That's a good question. But then again, we are talking about a game where Ludveck used his own men as fodder to get at Elincia (by way of giving them false instructions). Anyways, I doubt Zelgius was aware of the fact that Daein was on Begnion's side (or if he was, then I don't remember anything that indicated this).

Ludveck actually gained time by using his men as fodder. Begnion doesn't gain anything from not giving intel. Didn't they provide Daein troops with money for laguz hunting? Considering that the Black Knight was fighting on Micaiah's side, how is he not aware? 

[bethany81707]

"Oh, btw, Micaiah, go back to Daein and ask for some fire mages and ballistae. Also, watch for airdrops."

*After the battle*

"When I said 'watch for airdrops', this is exactly what I meant."

[Shadow Mir]

10 hours ago, Icelerate said:

Ludveck actually gained time by using his men as fodder. Begnion doesn't gain anything from not giving intel. Didn't they provide Daein troops with money for laguz hunting? Considering that the Black Knight was fighting on Micaiah's side, how is he not aware? 

Well, you have a point there. And I had just remembered about the Black Knight right before you posted. The money bit never really came to me because this is Daein we're talking about; they'd probably not need any extra motivation, considering that they dislike laguz.

...Thinking about it, I guess I have nothing. I'm starting to think that it's ridiculous that Begnion would willingly deprive its own ally of info it might need to strategize.

[bethany81707]

10 hours ago, Levant Mir Celestia said:

...Thinking about it, I guess I have nothing. I'm starting to think that it's ridiculous that Begnion would willingly deprive its own ally of info it might need to strategize.

It seems ridiculous that they would send a faction of their army into a known deathtrap to search for corpses. It seems ridiculous that they would march through another country's territory while knowing the local ruler didn't approve. It seems ridiculous that they would then proceed to spit in the local ruler's face.

I don't think they care.