shinori game Husbando/Waifu mafia Day 3!

[Shinori]

I'll update and add links when I get home

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

On numbers:

Spoiler

Assume 7/1/1 with 2x NK + poison from either side
Mislynch: 6/1/1
2x NK, Poison+ Poison death: 3/1/1
Lynch poisoning scum: 3/1
NK+Poison death: 1/1 town loses ==> It's not MYLO, so not possible

Assume 6/2/1 with 1x NK+Poison
Mislynch: 5/2/1
1x NK, Poison+ Poison death: 3/2/1
Either lynch PoisonITP: 3/2 ==> NK+poison death: 1/2 town loses
Or lynch mafia: 3/1/1 ==> NK+poisondeath+poison: 1/1/1 ==> lynch whoever: 1/1 ==> poison death town loses
It's not MYLO, so not possible

Assume 7/1/1 with 2x NK, no poison
Mislynch: 6/1/1
2x NK, Poison death: 3/1/1
Lynch scum: 3/1
NK: 2/1
Lynch scum town wins

In this world we are not in MYLO yet, so possible

Assume 7/1/1 with 1x NK + poison
Mislynch: 6/1/1
1x NK, Poison+ Poison death: 4/1/1
Either lynch mafia: 4/1 ==> poison+poison death: 3/1 ==> lynch ITP town win
Or lynch ITP: 4/1 ==> poison death+NK: 2/1 ==> lynch maf town win

In this world we are not in MYLO yet, so possible

So from this I think the only possible world is the one with 1 mafia left and 1 ITP. This also means either

- ITP is poisoner, 1 scumteam had a vigshot
- ITP is SK, poison was a 2-shot from either side
- ITP is SK, poison was 1-shot from either side, all might was lying (unlikely tinfoil)

Any scenarios I'm missing / calculations I'm doing wrong?

 

I think the first scenario is by far the likeliest, which also means Rain being RB'd should actually be clearing her instead of guilty-ing her, unless she's strongwilled, because both a NK and a poison happened.
If it's the second/third scenario, Rain can still be scum, just not poisoner.

@Everyone Thoughts? Am I wrong anywhere?

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

Please actually read + check above post and respond regardless of whether you think it's correct or not

[Estelle]

Wait, why do we think there's only one scum player left? We've only lynched one so far.

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

3 minutes ago, Estelle said:

Wait, why do we think there's only one scum player left? We've only lynched one so far.

Er, why do you think we think that?

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

3 minutes ago, Nemu Kurotsuchi said:

Er, why do you think we think that?

What I mean is, I don't think that and as far as I can tell, nobody thinks that. What gives you the impression we do?

[Marisa Kirisame]

Why do you think first scenario is likeliest? You gave us numbers but not really a thought process why you think Rain is town

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

28 minutes ago, Marisa Kirisame said:

Why do you think first scenario is likeliest? You gave us numbers but not really a thought process why you think Rain is town

I don't think Rain is townie at all, I just think 2-shot poison is an incredibly random number to give. 

[All Might]

2 minutes ago, Nemu Kurotsuchi said:

I don't think Rain is townie at all, I just think 2-shot poison is an incredibly random number to give. 

this is pretty hard tmi

[Estelle]

1 hour ago, Nemu Kurotsuchi said:

On numbers:

  Reveal hidden contents

Assume 7/1/1 with 2x NK + poison from either side
Mislynch: 6/1/1
2x NK, Poison+ Poison death: 3/1/1
Lynch poisoning scum: 3/1
NK+Poison death: 1/1 town loses ==> It's not MYLO, so not possible

Assume 6/2/1 with 1x NK+Poison
Mislynch: 5/2/1
1x NK, Poison+ Poison death: 3/2/1
Either lynch PoisonITP: 3/2 ==> NK+poison death: 1/2 town loses
Or lynch mafia: 3/1/1 ==> NK+poisondeath+poison: 1/1/1 ==> lynch whoever: 1/1 ==> poison death town loses
It's not MYLO, so not possible

Assume 7/1/1 with 2x NK, no poison
Mislynch: 6/1/1
2x NK, Poison death: 3/1/1
Lynch scum: 3/1
NK: 2/1
Lynch scum town wins

In this world we are not in MYLO yet, so possible

Assume 7/1/1 with 1x NK + poison
Mislynch: 6/1/1
1x NK, Poison+ Poison death: 4/1/1
Either lynch mafia: 4/1 ==> poison+poison death: 3/1 ==> lynch ITP town win
Or lynch ITP: 4/1 ==> poison death+NK: 2/1 ==> lynch maf town win

In this world we are not in MYLO yet, so possible

So from this I think the only possible world is the one with 1 mafia left and 1 ITP. This also means either

- ITP is poisoner, 1 scumteam had a vigshot
- ITP is SK, poison was a 2-shot from either side
- ITP is SK, poison was 1-shot from either side, all might was lying (unlikely tinfoil)

Any scenarios I'm missing / calculations I'm doing wrong?

 

I think the first scenario is by far the likeliest, which also means Rain being RB'd should actually be clearing her instead of guilty-ing her, unless she's strongwilled, because both a NK and a poison happened.
If it's the second/third scenario, Rain can still be scum, just not poisoner.

@Everyone Thoughts? Am I wrong anywhere?

TBH this post lost me, but the bolded part makes it look like you're saying there's only one Mafia left.

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

14 minutes ago, All Might said:

this is pretty hard tmi

??? Why?

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

10 minutes ago, Estelle said:

TBH this post lost me, but the bolded part makes it look like you're saying there's only one Mafia left.

1 mafia, 1 itp

If there were 2 mafia and 1 itp, wed be in MYLO (which is the point of the analysis) Were not in mylo, so there can only be 1 mafia (unless I messed up somewhere)

[All Might]

4 minutes ago, Nemu Kurotsuchi said:

??? Why?

how do you know theres only 2 poisons?

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

Just now, All Might said:

how do you know theres only 2 poisons?

If there were 3, itd be MYLO (read analysis with 2 NK and poison)

[Rain Nijika]

On 5-9-2018 at 7:59 AM, All Might said:

actually

##unvote

i think since one of my abilities is reversed, it's very possible it's the hidden mayor part. i might just make a wagon lose votes which would create a strange synergy. hidden mayor only makes sense if the mayor's got something to hide since there's already a flipped dv, and showing me.i lost votes removes the tension in the role. i at first assumed it was the lpv, so i blew it today thinking it'd make me get lynched faster. going with mayor as my guess now.

All Might talks about losing votes, so if you factor that in + the chance Nemu is lying, the options chance a bit.

[Rain Nijika]

If there's 3 anti town left, I'd say 2 of the following 3 things needs to be going on:

- All Might lost his vote and is anti town (or anti town lost voting power through some other means, but unlikely).

- Anti town doesn't have a second shot anymore (as in, mafia or itp lost their shot but can maybe still poison).

- Nemu is scum (which likely implies they're lying about being poisoned, but scum actually being poisoned is also a pretty valid reason for it not being MyLo).

Nemu being scum and poisoned explains it on it's own actually, but I don't find that part too likely.

[Rain Nijika]

1 hour ago, Estelle said:

Wait, why do we think there's only one scum player left? We've only lynched one so far.

 

24 minutes ago, Nemu Kurotsuchi said:

1 mafia, 1 itp

If there were 2 mafia and 1 itp, wed be in MYLO (which is the point of the analysis) Were not in mylo, so there can only be 1 mafia (unless I messed up somewhere)

In Estelle's dictonary, scum = mafia, and itp is not scum I'm pretty sure.

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

4 minutes ago, Rain Nijika said:

If there's 3 anti town left, I'd say 2 of the following 3 things needs to be going on:

- All Might lost his vote and is anti town (or anti town lost voting power through some other means, but unlikely).

- Anti town doesn't have a second shot anymore (as in, mafia or itp lost their shot but can maybe still poison).

- Nemu is scum (which likely implies they're lying about being poisoned, but scum actually being poisoned is also a pretty valid reason for it not being MyLo).

Nemu being scum and poisoned explains it on it's own actually, but I don't find that part too likely.

I cover 2 maf / 1 ITP with one having NK, one having poison in my analysis. The math still doesn't work out.

The first point is interesting though, but should be easily checkable when All Might votes.

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

3 minutes ago, Rain Nijika said:

 

In Estelle's dictonary, scum = mafia, and itp is not scum I'm pretty sure.

Oh, okay. @Estelle With mafia I mean the team, with ITP the independent third party, with scum any antitown, either mafia or itp.

[Rain Nijika]

Just now, Nemu Kurotsuchi said:

I cover 2 maf / 1 ITP with one having NK, one having poison in my analysis. The math still doesn't work out.

The first point is interesting though, but should be easily checkable when All Might votes.

As I said, two of those need to be true. All Might losing his vote doesn't work either.

[Nemu Kurotsuchi]

3 minutes ago, Rain Nijika said:

As I said, two of those need to be true. All Might losing his vote doesn't work either.

Oh right, my bad. That could work, yes.

[Rain Nijika]

12/2/1 sounds pretty undermanned for the anti town to me. I could see it maybe being a thing if both sides have full killing power plus a full time poisoner, but it'd be extremely lopsided otherwise.

Also gonna trow in that my double vote clears me in a lot of scenarios here.

[Rain Nijika]

Honestly though, I still don't wanna lynch Nemu before the poison can prove her innocence, and All Might is still unlynchable.

I still think Aizen/Estelle is the scum team tbh, so I'm just going to vote there for now:

##Vote: Aizen

I'll be back in a few hours to talk more, but we should start thinking about who to lynch now.

[Estelle]

Yeah it seems like a small anti-town. Could there be more than one SK? Does Cu's role say anything bout that?

[Estelle]

And since you think I'm scum @Rain Nijika could you show me your case on me so I have at least something to work on? I don't have time to reread right now.