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CYL3 winners predictions


Midnox
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I actually feel like "it's her dad" is a better excuse than many Camuses have. Filial piety is a big thing (and often biologically rooted); children can and do stick up parents even if they are abusive assholes and it's not in any way an unrealistic creation of video games. Additionally, In Laegjarn's case, what little development she's had shows family is very important to her.

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6 minutes ago, Tybrosion said:

That actually makes her far worse than Xander as far I'm concerned, in the sense that she has just accepted that her father is a murderous tyrant, is ultimately willing to go along with his plans when she can plainly see that he is clearly in the wrong, and is too scared and/or cowardly to do what's right and turn against him. Though at this point, I am as well not even continue since I openly admitted that I'm biased against Laegjarn so of course I'm going to say things like this.

Î find it funny that you like Leo because he is a bit like that ^^ For Laegjarn I understand that you may not like her, but I think that if you had one Oc to hate, I think it will be another one, like Fjorm or her older sister. Apart from that, who do you want to see winning Cyl 3 ?

Edited by Drakhis
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55 minutes ago, fOrEiGn sOUl said:

I would like to point out that the overall appeal to CYL has downgraded a lot. With the introduction of monthly "legendary heroes" and a safe spot for alts in "new" hero banners, the idea in having a special version of voted character seems less exciting.

This is very true and is a reason why I hoped Legendary Heroes would be special very rare units like the Brave ones. But it makes more money to have them be monthly I'm sure.

Anyway since Three Houses won't be out yet and probably won't be included in the voting, I'm guessing:

Marth - everyone seems to agree he deserves more attention and he's generally liked among the fanbase so now that the heavy hitters are out he should be able to secure the win.

Loki - I'm assuming she's going to keep being important to the story and unplayable so she may be the next Veronica, with the bonus of having tiddy power to boost her to first place.

Chrom - Smash will help him for sure. Not really much competition other than Robin and Alm at this point, but I can't see them edging him out.

Camilla or Eirika - could honestly see this going either way, depending on whether Camilla can hold on to her popularity and prove she's not just a Waifu of the Week like Tharja.

Which really underscores how meh CYL3 would be. Camilla, Eirika, and Chrom all have several alts already, and Loki is... not my cup of tea. The only reason it would be worth it is for Marth to get his deserved Brave version.

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Speaking of FEH OCs being randomly high on CYL, I wonder how high Hrid would be by the time CYL3 comes in?

Whether he stays unplayable or not may also play a part on how much people want the OCs to be playable in some form I guess, like Veronica.

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14 minutes ago, mcsilas said:

Speaking of FEH OCs being randomly high on CYL, I wonder how high Hrid would be by the time CYL3 comes in?

New characters usually rate high, it's more that these protagonists are exceptionally low for being bland and underdeveloped.

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Oliver, 3-13 Archer, and Brigand Boss

 

 

Ok. Actually I predict Marth (maybe his fans will organize between now an the next CYL?), and I have an almost certainty someone from 3H will be in if the times match up. Beast Units, Reinhardt, and Alm have a good chance as well. 

Other than that, the Veronica supporters may vote for Bruno or Laevatain.

 

Then there’s fanservice characters of course

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36 minutes ago, Drakhis said:

Î find it funny that you like Leo because he is a bit like that ^^ For Laegjarn I understand that you may not like her, but I think that if you had one Oc to hate, I think it will be another one, like Fjorm or her older sister. Apart from that, who do you want to see winning Cyl 3 ?

In my perfect world, Leo and Cordelia take the top spots for their respective genders. Too bad both will even be lucky to make a run for second.

What I actually expect is Marth + whoever else for the males and Eirika (another regular on my shit list) + FEH OC for the females. So in other words, I'm expecting to be disappointed and massively disinterested.

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Personally I'd say that...

Marth or Alm will place first. Marth primarily because people believe this lord doesn't get the popularity he deserves and Alm I don't really know why. Personally I'm not a big fan of Alm, I don't really like people who have some sort of harem.

Camilla actually has a chance of not making it. There are enough people out there who hate Camilla so much that they would probably find someone else to vote for in order for Camilla to place 3rd again.

Some females who could make it are probably Tharja, Eirika, or one of the Muspel sister (the hot ones (in more that one way)).

Reinhardt could make it because of how powerful he is and always will be. Just... what can he be at this point? Give him a lance and call him Fred? I'm not that creative on that front.

I'd personally like to see characters that ARE in heroes get brave versions. Noire and Charlotte don't sit well with me cause I just want a vanilla version of them.

That's all I have right now, I'll probably have more thing to say later. Let me know what you guys think. (Oh, and if it's about the Alm harem thing, forget it, you are not changing my mind even if he does get with Celica at the end. Doesn't change the fact that of course he has three ladies wanting to ride him throughout the game.)

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Marth will be an interesting one: Will Shadow Dragon Marth win or will the Japanese keep pushing for Mystery of the Emblem Marth? Or...will his divided fanbase screw him over and someone else gets 1st place, taking advantage of the split? 

@D-I-S-C-O Reinhardt can keep the “Brave” weapon meme and get another melee weapon or tome with the same effect. Alm will probably get some push due to Celica. Same with Eliwood due to his fellow FE7 lords getting “Brave” alts. As for Chrom, it’s a double-edged sword, Smash can both help him and screw him over. On one side he’s popular but on the other side, he’s had a few alts already just like Camilla. Speaking of Camilla, if people are still bitter about her, I cam see people rooting for either Eirika or Nino. 

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29 minutes ago, Lemmy said:

While mildly offtopic, part of me wants Takumi to win, just so they could put him in his brother's lobster armor

They’d just put him in Sumeragi’s white lobster armor instead. 

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Unfortunately, FETH doesn’t come out until March in the earliest, so Edelgard winning the women’s division won’t happen. Which is damn sad.
I’m just going to vote Sharena and Calill like I did last time.

Men’s side… I want Marth to finally win. Him, and him only.

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Don't really have a horse in this race, at least not one that has any realistic chance of winning. Looking at 3rd to 20th of each bracket, I'd say I want Reinhardt, Eliwood, Lilina and Eirika. Failing that, I want the most memetic winners possible. I do have sympathy for Marth voters but the fallout would be absolutely incredible if he was pipped again.

Who I actually expect to win is pretty boring. Marth, Chrom, Camilla, Laegjarn probably. No strong feelings either way about any of those. I'm expecting Alm to get some sort of alt before CYL3 and that coupled with me finding SoV to be pretty forgettable means he's the most vulnerable to a drop. Chrom already has had his alt-fatigue drop happen in CYL2, and that he'll get extra exposure from Smash which will be out by then.

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23 minutes ago, Vaximillian said:

Men’s side… I want Marth to finally win. Him, and him only.

Which Marth? He’ll be split again. Japan will go for Mystery of the Emblem while the west will most likely go for Shadow Dragon again. 

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1 minute ago, Lord-Zero said:

Which Marth? He’ll be split again. Japan will go for Mystery of the Emblem while the west will most likely go for Shadow Dragon again. 

Both Marths. #1 is Marth, #2 is Marth. Don’t care which is which.

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It might be best to stick with one version but I can see Marth getting screwed over again due to split votes. The Marth fanbase needs to come together and stick with one. If he gets a legendary variant between now and January, I can see the demand for Marth lessen to some noticeable degree. 

Edited by Lord-Zero
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I wonder if Camilla, Chrom and Takumi will suffer less votes because of them already having 4 alts and a CYL version of them will put them at 5. Also, exalted Chrom is a CYL reject. Same goes for Eirika (who I'm starting to doubt will win), Hinoka, Ryoma, Nino, Olivia

 

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My apologies if I come across as rude, but some of these candidates people are posting are... pretty ridiculous. To gloss over a few, Selkie, Laevetain, male Robin... Yeah, I mean these just aren't realistic choices. Whilst you could say scoring as the '7th most popular male' or '12 most popular female' is impressive, people are forgetting the votes difference between 'first' and 'seventh' is absolutely astronomical. 

Even the likes of Chrom seem very unlikely considering his drop off in popularity from the first Choose Your Legends to the second. People mention his inclusion in Smash could propel votes towards him. This could hold some ground, however it's pretty obvious that a majority of the voters are primarily 'Fire Emblem' fans, none of the current Choose Your Legends winners are even remotely related to Smash Bros. Generally, most of the Awakening characters had a drop in popularity regardless. Chrom will likely retain his middle-ground results. 

As with Choose Your Legends 1 and 2, the results have been pretty predictable aside from Veronica. The options for each gender are between:

  • Male: Marth, Alm, Reinhardt, Eliwood
  • Female: Camilla, Eirika, Laegjarn, Loki, Azura or Micaiah

The only "definite" out of the potential candidates seems to be Marth. The men's side just isn't competitive and assessing whether Alm and Reinhardt's will maintain their popularity or not is too difficult to gauge. I've seen some people mention Eliwood and... I doubt it. I listed him since there's the potential that Hector and Lyn voters will propel Eliwood forward, however considering that he's always been dwarfed in popularity by the other two leads, it just doesn't seem plausible. 

The females section is... practically impossible to say for certain. I've seen some people say Camilla's a "definite" winner, but this is obviously not the case. Unlike Tharja, Camilla has been able to maintain her popularity despite high levels of alt-saturation, however as with the second Choose Your Legends... The amount of vitriol and contention her character consistently produces, to say there would be a "voting brigade" against her if she retains second place during the mid-vote results... would be an understatement. She's also splitting votes with Loki, so there's that as well. /shrug

As for my guesses... Laegjarn pulling off a similar situation as Veronica... seems plausible. Since her release, she completely overshadowed her sister and she's one of the few OCs that has been warmly received by almost everyone. Although I see her as quite redundant and overrated, I honestly think she's one of the more likely options. Especially if she dies within the main story in a meaningful or eventful manner, her popularity would likely skyrocket. It's between her and Loki for the "OC win", I don't think it's likely both will get 1 and 2. My moneys on Laegjarn, but I could see Loki winning as well.

Similarly, Eirika was a victim of unfortunate circumstances last Choose Your Legends. Ephraim and Celica voters will very likely migrate to Eirika and another alt (likely seasonal), probably wouldn't even deter votes away considering how prolific some characters are with the amount of variants they've obtained.

With all that out of the way... My moneys on:

  • Marth and Alm
  • Eirika and Laegjarn 
27 minutes ago, silveraura25 said:

I wonder if Camilla, Chrom and Takumi will suffer less votes because of them already having 4 alts and a CYL version of them will put them at 5. Also, exalted Chrom is a CYL reject. Same goes for Eirika (who I'm starting to doubt will win), Hinoka, Ryoma, Nino, Olivia

To say there's no correlation between the two... is probably incorrect. Both over-exposure and alt saturation can negatively impact a characters popularity (Lyn, Lucina). However, considering Camilla and Azura's popularity only increased between the Choose Your Legends despite both having more alts than Lyn at the time, it's not a valid excuse for a character to not win the ballot.

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As far I'm concern CYL already lost it's purpose.

It's no longer a popularity contest as so much it's who people want to have an alt which already lost it's value. What reinforce this idea is how high Surtr rank. Can anyone honestly say that Surtr is the best villain in the entire series? He's the 2nd most popular main antagonist in the entire series. BK does beat him if you combine all his votes (including his alias).

 

Either way by the time CYL 3 happens I already expected massive double standards & selective obliviousness regarding both GBA & 3DS era as usual

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I honestly don't care about the women's side, I'm just hoping they don't show the mid-term results because poor Camilla, jc.

As for the men...I want Marth to win. It's just the goddamn split votes. I'll be giving all my votes to him again, so I hope it does something.

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2 hours ago, SlipperySlippy said:

My apologies if I come across as rude, but some of these candidates people are posting are... pretty ridiculous.

So?  This is a prediction thread, for a poll several months in the future.  Who knows what the meta/memes will look like then.

In other words, your analysis is nice, but keep things like this to yourself in the future.

1 hour ago, Zangetsu said:

Either way by the time CYL 3 happens I already expected massive double standards & selective obliviousness regarding both GBA & 3DS era as usual

You can keep things like this to yourself, too.

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I feel good about Marth and Eirika's chances,

Not as sure about the other 2 choices, can see maybe Alm or Chrom joining Marth and Azura, Camilla, or Tharja joining Erikia with a chance of really any of the heroes characters like bruno, fjorm, loki, etc. sneaking in like Veronica.

Edited by nirvanafan
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Marth, Eliwood and Alm part is kind of difficult to predict because I think it entirely depends on either any of them get legendary/regular (but not seasonal) alts and how satisfying they will be. In my opinion, this might reduce people's demand: Eliwood getting an alt with good stats and art by Wada Sachiko, Marth getting a rollable alt that is better than his standard version from 3-4* pool, Alm getting a (colored) bow alt and making the gap between the amount of his and Celica's alts smaller.

I think there will always be some bitterness when it comes to games that have multiple lords unless everyone gets the same treatment. But the gap between Lyn, Hector and Eliwood is already too big to fix it unless Eliwood somehow gets two more alts before either Lyn or Hector get more. Which doesn't seems to be a good decision if they care about money so much.

 

Edited by Cat Villager
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