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November 2018 Legendary Banner Expectations


Johann
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NEXT MONTH'S THREAD:

Please use the most recent thread if you intend to make posts about future banners. Feel free to use this thread for analysis of trends, etc.

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Next month is the one year anniversary of Legendary Hero Banners, and very possible that we'll see version 3.0 debut, so there's a lot of possibilities here. Strangest of all, we're seeing (for the first time ever) 4 Legendary Heroes return, which suggests that either they're not adding a new hero, or that they're increasing the number of heroes to 5.

CONFIRMABLE: The following Legendary heroes named are confirmed to return based on the notifications:

  • Legendary Ryoma 
  • Gunnthra
  • Legendary Lucina 
  • Legendary Robin (9 months in a row!)

We aren't even sure if we're getting a new Legendary hero, let alone what color they would be. The next season will be Water, however, so if there is a new hero, they should be Water.

SEASONALS: Again, we saw 3 seasonals in October, and I was surprised to see Tana over Noire, which gives us quite a few colorless to get through. 

  • Summer Noire - Extremely high odds, the first colorless seasonal in order. We have 3 colorless seasonals in waiting now, so it makes sense that they'd give us Noire since she debuted first.
  • Summer Cordelia - High odds, first in line for blue seasonals.
  • Summer Innes - High odds, first in line for green seasonals.
  • Summer Takumi - Good odds. Colorless has been all over the place lately, and it wouldn't surprise me if they end up pushing him or Linde sooner to get through them a little quicker.
  • Summer Linde - Same as Takumi.
  • Summer Tiki (Young) - Lowish odds, first in line for red seasonals, but there are a lot of colorless units to get through, as well as Cordelia and Innes.
  • Summer Camilla - Very Low odds, she appears after Cordelia in terms of debuts.
  • Hoshidan Summer Heroes - Possibly too soon, hard to say. They have a lot of flexibility with them since they cover all 4 colors. The glut of colorless seasonals and lack of green/red suggests that we'd see Micaiah or Elincia first, and Xander last.

REGULAR 5★ HEROES: Again, green and blue have plenty of heroes to pick from, while red and colorless are likely to end up with either repeats or CYL2 units, who are next in line.

  • Brave Roy - Good odds. The only CYL1 hero not to make a reappearance on Legendary banners thus far (while the others have appeared 3 times each), which has been very surprising. 
  • Brave Celica - Decent odds, she's next in line after having finished the Ylisse banner. I don't think we'd get both her and Brave Roy though, due to their similar qualities and skills. 
  • Other Returning Reds - Ike (Young Mercenary), Celica (Caring Princess), Ryoma (Peerless Samurai), Seigbert, Sanaki, and Zelgius are prime examples of those who would be coming back after having appeared in the past. I'm having a hard time predicting who among these we'd get if they don't use a CYL or seasonal hero.
  • Olwen (green tome) - Very good odds, being the next in line for greens. Only reason they wouldn't is because Gunnthra will also appear, and that would be two strong cavalry mages on green.
  • Kana (F) - Lowish odds, being after Olwen, though has movement/weapon diversity from Gunnthra.
  • Flying Nino - Very low odds, competing with either Olwen, Kana, or Summer Innes for a spot.
  • Brave Ephraim - Very low odds, only because Olwen, Kana, and Nino haven't appeared yet.
  • Lewyn - No chance, way too soon.
  • Brave Hector - Good odds, same as Brave Celica (see above) but perhaps better since blue is a smaller pool to pick from. I'm not sure they'd put multiple CYL2 heroes on the banner though.
  • Quan - Decent odds, he'd be after Hector, but Hector's status as CYL makes it possible that he'd get in and they save Hector for the following month.
  • Ninian - Decent odds. Only blue from a Hero Fest banner who hasn't made an appearance, and no other dancers beyond the Hoshidan Summer heroes are lined up without repeats.
  • Shiro - Very low odds. He was skipped over for Micaiah to make a reappearance this past month, suggesting that they don't intend to bring him back anytime soon.
  • Hardin - Very low odds. Next after Micaiah for making reappearances if they continue on without going back for Shiro or Lute.
  • Takumi - Good odds, he's the only colorless hero that hasn't reappeared. There are, however, quite a few colorless seasonals to get through, including his summer self.
  • Brave Veronica - Low odds, like with Hector and Celica, but perhaps hurt by the amount of colorless seasonals and whether or not they want to bring back Takumi. I also suspect we wouldn't get too many CYL heroes as well, and Celica and Hector have better odds for sure.

MY PREDICTED LIST: This is my own guess based on everything above.

  • Legendary Ryoma
  • Brave Roy
  • Celica (tome)
  • Gunnthra
  • Kana (F)
  • Summer Innes
  • Legendary Lucina
  • Summer Cordelia
  • Brave Hector
  • Legendary Robin
  • Takumi
  • Summer Noire

WHO'S THAT POKEMON NEW HERO? It's possible that we don't get a new hero, as we're seeing 4 returning heroes. If we do get one, we can't even predict what color they would be. Speculate away!

FUTURE ANALYSIS: Based on the banner notes, we can tell what colors to expect. 

  • November: Ryoma, Lucina, Gunnthra, Robin
  • December: Marth, Fjorm, Hector
  • January: Ike, Eirika, Tiki, Lyn
  • February: Ephraim
  • Both Ike and Eirika appearing in January is a huge deal; we're getting two Legendaries of the same color on the same banner. This will make future predictions very challenging as we begin to wonder what this means for new heroes being added. We will, at least, not have to wait as long for any specific hero, which is great news.
  • I suspect that by the time we reach the Hoshidan Summer heroes in the line-up, they will do what they did with the Performing Arts banner; add one at a time. I know we had both Inigo and Shigure, but I think that was a specific instance of them wanting to get through the greens faster.
  • Version 3.0 may surprise us. Maybe we'll get a new OC hero who comes as a free 5* like Fjorm? Time will tell.

Previous threads: 

Edited by Johann
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Warning Wall of Text

Based on what we know, I'd guess F!Grima is going to double up with a new Colorless legendary. It makes sense to start doubling up on legendaries especially if they're going to keep making them past 16.

Speaking of that some thoughts I have on the current state of legendaries:

1. The current gender ratio is 7:5 in favor of females, so if IS wants to balance the 16 hero "cyle" as it were, we'd need to see three males and one female in the next 4. Now there's no reason they have to do so, but there will likely be alot of salt if not given how many prominent male characters have been passed over at this point

2. As things stand there is 1 spot left for each element

3. We have 4 reds 4 blues 3 greens and 1 colorless, so if IS wants equal color representation things will be a bit lopsided for a while

4. The existance of L!Tiki and L!Ryoma proves IS doesn't give a shit about canonical move types

5. That being said I would argue there is evidence IS cares about cannonical weapon types. If you're willing to spot Lucina a 2nd seal (remember archer is a reclass option she inherits from Chrom so its availability 100% cannonical) all legendary heroes do stick to weapons they can actually use

6. IS is clearly willing to make shit up for the weapon its self, e.g. L!Lucina

7. There is no apparent requirement to be a legendary, other than some amount of plot relevance and being a popular character. Keep in mind Ryoma and Tiki, still very popular characters in the grand scheme of things, were the worst performing legendaries in CYL and both were still top 25 if you account for Tiki's vote splitting. So don't expect anything too off the wall (rip Elencia)

8. With the exception of the OC sisters, every legendary has been an alt, meaning no character has been introduced as a legendary.

Now some names for your consideration.

Bow:Alm is really all we have as far as canonical bow users who are popular enough to be a legendary.

Staff:Celica/Michiah/Corrin

Due to the fact that I am completely unable to come up with a justifiable dagger legendary I think we'll see at least one of these in the near future. If IS were willing to go with a less popular option we could see something crazy like Master Knight Leif.

Beasts:Due to point no. 8, I think a non OC Beast legendary in the next 4 months is very unlikely since they would have to be introduced then get an alt within like 3 months tops but who knows IS breaks/changes there own rules all the time. If we did get one my guess woulf be Tibarn.

Green: The only name that leaps out to me is Xander (he can reclass into Great Knight and the Wyvren classes) or if they wanted to say screw symmetry Camilla, which would be hilarious just for the salt. Less popular options could include Soren or Master Knight Leif

All that being said, if IS doesn't give a shit about balancing genders/colors these are just impossible to predict.

Edited by colossus86
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I am still salty at them blowing their load with all the seasonals I like on the October banner. I plan to go all out for Ryouma (and maybe Lucina) this time, so him sharing focus with a bunch of duds would be unfortunate. I wouldn't have a huge problem with S!Y!Tiki since mine could use better IVs, merges or I could distribute Atk/Def bond to someone. I'd also like to finally have a normal Celica of my own, or get DB4/merges from her Brave version. I wouldn't be happy about Roy, since I am already swimming in Sword cavs, and I almost never use Galeforce, which is the only useful fodder he has.

 

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1 hour ago, Vaximillian said:

Wing bow Queen Caeda or riot.

'T'would truly be a thing of beauty. I would go in on that so hard.

Anyway, a bit disappointed if they really don't release a new one, and the lineup as a whole seems rather eh. Big interests are Roy, Siegbert, Ninian, Ike, and Takumi for CC.

Some characters I'd like to see for legendaries if they do add one are (regardless of likelihood):

- Dad/Marquess Eliwood. Maybe with Maltet to differentiate him and as a nod to his weapon rank in FE6?

- Alm. Preferably with a bow, but I'll take anything.

- Hrid. He looks cool.

- Seliph. Not even sure how they'd build him without being either just powercreep Sigurd or disappointing. Maybe Shannan-inspired and wielding Balmung? Still, I want Shannan in so not to big a fan of the implications of that idea even if I like it on its own.

- Dragon lord Al. What I would do for this.

- Roy. Also not sure how to differentiate him, but it didn't stop Hector showing up.

- Staff Celica. I'm still salty this wasn't her brave form.

Seliph, Eliwood, and Al would be my biggest likes. Al just because it'd be cool to see him and the other two because they're in desperate need of improvements. 

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3 minutes ago, bottlegnomes said:

'T'would truly be a thing of beauty. I would go in on that so hard.

Wing axe Queen Caeda or riot, too.
Or even actual obvious wing spear Queen Caeda or riot.

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51 minutes ago, colossus86 said:

4. The existance of L!Tiki and L!Ryoma proves IS doesn't give a shit about canonical move types

Kinshi Knight is one of Ryoma's default reclass options if you're willing to give Lucina bows from a reclass.

Tiki had 5 movement range in her human form in FE3, which is the same as all armored classes (promoted and unpromoted) and "slow" unpromoted infantry classes (Archer, Cleric, and Pirate had 5 movement range, unlike all other unpromoted infantry classes, which had 6), so Tiki does have some justification for having armor movement (neither Zephiel nor Hardin were weak to armor-effective weapons, but both had armored movement range).

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22 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Kinshi Knight is one of Ryoma's default reclass options if you're willing to give Lucina bows from a reclass.

Tiki had 5 movement range in her human form in FE3, which is the same as all armored classes (promoted and unpromoted) and "slow" unpromoted infantry classes (Archer, Cleric, and Pirate had 5 movement range, unlike all other unpromoted infantry classes, which had 6), so Tiki does have some justification for having armor movement (neither Zephiel nor Hardin were weak to armor-effective weapons, but both had armored movement range).

That's true, guess I was also thinking about stuff like the Nino and Olivia alts that have cannon friendly weapons but not movement.

I'm willing to write off Eirika's mage alt as early installment weirdness since if I'm not mistaken it was the very first non seasonal alt and with the exception of cyl Hector/Ephraim, anything in the permanent pool sticks to cannon weapon types.

Edited by colossus86
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It makes sense to me that they're doubling up on Legendaries for each banner. And that's a good thing, I think, so we won't have to wait as long for reruns! It does make it harder to predict, though.

For November, I'm predicting they'll introduce Male Corrin as a colorless infantry dragon. He'll go along with Robin as another colorless Legendary.

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4 minutes ago, Diovani Bressan said:

Where is Elicia? She didn't appeared in any Legendary Hero Banner yet, while heroes like Karla and Sumia that were released some months ago already appeared in legendary banners.

She's in Red Hell my friend. Plenty of good units to go around but if you want one specific unit there is no greater curse

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1 hour ago, colossus86 said:

She's in Red Hell my friend. Plenty of good units to go around but if you want one specific unit there is no greater curse

tell me about it :( 
I'd love Elinicia. 

 

3 hours ago, Landmaster said:

NOOO, not Summer Innes, plz, I really don't want him on the same Banner as Gunnthra T__T

i know! :( i need my fellow (he's so swoony), but with Gunnthra. i love mages etc, but i don't think i like her. 

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Hmm I didn't think of it like this before, but we started with Fjorm, then got Gunnthra, then a bunch of non-OC's. Maybe they'll give us OC's again, since we're starting a new round? I guess, despite not getting Hrid for October, the chances of getting Legendary Staff Armor Ylgr aren't completely gone! *hopes beyond hope* Though, it'd be too bad if only the Nifl sisters get in and Hrid never gets a legendary. Maybe that ice sword is actually some other color besides red..? Nah. Unlikely. I wouldn't be entirely pleased with that anyway. I still want Legendary Sword Pegasus Hrid.

Apart from OC's, dragons may be cool. Like, colorless dragonstone Mila or something, then green dragonstone Duma (yes, I'm paralleling the Grimas, but besides that, those colors just seem to fit them, one being healer-y and...well, green just seems to fit. Wouldn't mind if he was red, though. It's also fitting.)

Edit: And since L!Robin will be appearing next month, I won't worry about trying to get her on this banner. Instead, I'll be saving orbs for next month, despite how much I want various Halloween people. Got 3* Gwendolyn as my free pull with only blue and green options so eh.

Edited by Mercakete
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3 hours ago, colossus86 said:

She's in Red Hell my friend. Plenty of good units to go around but if you want one specific unit there is no greater curse

But it's weird because there are red units which were released early this yeartaht  already appeared in a legendary banner, while Elincia was released September 2017 and didn't have her chance yet. Olivia, for exemple, could wait a little bit, since we have another flying sword unit on the wait.

To be fair, I am happy Elincia isn't on October Banner, since I couldn't care less about that banner.

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1 hour ago, Diovani Bressan said:

But it's weird because there are red units which were released early this yeartaht  already appeared in a legendary banner, while Elincia was released September 2017 and didn't have her chance yet. Olivia, for exemple, could wait a little bit, since we have another flying sword unit on the wait.

To be fair, I am happy Elincia isn't on October Banner, since I couldn't care less about that banner.

i kinda wish Olivia wasn't either. 
but i still want Eirika. so i'm still screwed :(

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13 hours ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

It makes sense to me that they're doubling up on Legendaries for each banner. And that's a good thing, I think, so we won't have to wait as long for reruns! It does make it harder to predict, though.

For November, I'm predicting they'll introduce Male Corrin as a colorless infantry dragon. He'll go along with Robin as another colorless Legendary.

god no more dragons. Give us a Legendary Dagger user or Healer. It would bump up the variety!

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1 hour ago, Hilda said:

god no more dragons. Give us a Legendary Dagger user or Healer. It would bump up the variety!

I really hope the generic predictions (Staff Mic, into Bow Alm) end up being true. Would be pretty happy with these choices, I wouldn't even mind what they do with the remaining two ("patterns" suggest Xander or Corrin and Celica, but of course take "patterns" with a grain of salt at this point). 

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On 31.10.2018 at 4:11 PM, Johann said:
  • Legendary Ryoma
  • Brave Roy
  • Celica (tome)

That would be awesome (don't have Ryoma and want merges for the other two), but then again - the current banner had my hopes already crushed. Perhaps they decided to treat BH!Roy like a regular sword unit?

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On 11/1/2018 at 12:18 AM, Hilda said:

god no more dragons.

Do I hear more dragons? Legendary A!Tiki will be a pony with RANGED Breath! Divine Fog will have Atk +20 during combat if for can counter and will target the lowest stat as the defensive stat, so all those slow armors will be more easily killed in one shot. With all the prayers being sent to A!Tiki, Devout Worshipers on the A slot will treat all of A!Tiki's skills as if they cost 500 SP.

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On 03/11/2018 at 6:55 AM, XRay said:

Do I hear more dragons? Legendary A!Tiki will be a pony with RANGED Breath! Divine Fog will have Atk +20 during combat if for can counter and will target the lowest stat as the defensive stat, so all those slow armors will be more easily killed in one shot. With all the prayers being sent to A!Tiki, Devout Worshipers on the A slot will treat all of A!Tiki's skills as if they cost 500 SP.

Real question, how does one draw a cavalry dragon's attacking sprite? 

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