Jump to content

January 2019 Legendary Banner Expectations


Johann
 Share

Recommended Posts

NEXT MONTH'S THREAD:

Please use the most recent thread if you intend to make posts about future banners. Feel free to use this thread for analysis of trends, etc.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Alright, now that the holidays are over, I've got a moment to look at the next banner. Note that while technically it's going to be a Mythic Hero banner, for the sake of keeping this thread series recognizable, I'm keeping the name consistent.

LEGENDARIES/MYTHICS: The following are confirmed based on the notifications:

  • Legendary Ike
  • Legendary Eirika
  • Legendary Lyn
  • Legendary Tiki
  • New Colorless Mythic Hero

Note that since Mythic seasons alternate in pairs every week, it's hard to anticipate what blessing they'd carry. For what it's worth, the season is likely to be Astra/Anima when this hero launches. I'll discuss which element I think it will be further below.

SEASONALS: With the second year of summer heroes wrapping up, we should see at least one Hoshidan Summer hero. Recall that when the Performing Arts heroes returned, they were spread out across several banners. Will that happen again? Hard to say, but if we see a Halloween hero this month, then the answer is yes. At the end of this post is also an early prediction about seasonals in the future banners.

  • Summer Linde - 100% happening unless they pull a Winter Lissa on us, she's the last summer hero to appear.
  • Dancing Ryoma - Very good odds, next in line for blue seasonals. What helps his chances are that there are few blues lined up in the normal 5* pool, and that Micaiah and Xander are unlikely (see below). I'd give him higher odds, but if there's only one dancer, they may put Niles in sooner.
  • Dancing Elincia - Very good odds. If there are two dancers on this banner, she'd probably appear before Micaiah or Xander. I suspect that even IS considers Legendary Lyn to be relatively lackluster, and Elincia would be their idea of incentivizing greens a bit more.
  • Dancing Micaiah - Lowish odds, as we have 2 red Legendaries this month, and I strongly suspect that Laegjaen will appear to round out the Muspell generals.
  • Dancing Xander - Extremely poor odds, given that Linde should be appearing. We almost certainly won't get two seasonals of the same color on one banner.
  • Halloween Niles - Very low odds, mostly because I suspect Ryoma will show. However, he'd likely be the first Halloween hero to appear if they get an early start.
  • Halloween Kagero - Extremely poor odds, not just because of Elincia, but also that Brave Ephraim will likely appear, and I doubt they'll put two amazing armored units/Fighter skills in the same slot.
  • Halloween Myrrh - Extremely poor odds, being behind Micaiah, and red has very little room this month.
  • Halloween Mia - 0% chance, being behind both Linde and Xander for colorless seasonals.

REGULAR 5★ HEROES: Things are getting a little easier to predict here, as we've seen some recent trends

  • Laegjarn - Very high odds. The last two banners have included Laevatein and Helbindi, so it's likely that she'll round out the Muspell generals. The only two units competing for this remaining red spot are Dancing Micaiah and Brave Celica.
  • Brave Celica - Decent odds, though I suspect that we'll see Brave Ephraim appear this month as the CYL2 hero. I'm thinking Celica will be on February's banner instead.
  • Owain - Lowish odds, he just appeared on a Hero Fest so I doubt it.
  • Olwen (green tome) - Lowish odds, she's been skipped over for Nino and it's reasonable to assume (based on previous banners) that they're not coming back for her. Getting skipped is sort of a kiss of death for appearing on these banners.
  • Brave Ephraim - Very high odds, as one of two remaining CYL2 heroes to make a debut on these banners. Also, since most other heroes in green slot are are ranged units, they probably see this as a good opportunity to put him in. Not to mention, I don't imagine they'd put him on the same banner as Hector, Kagero, or Surtr, all of whom are likely/confirmed to appear on banners for
  • Lewyn - Low odds, but they do surprise us sometimes. He's a little lower on the list and green is looking stacked on ranged units. He also just appeared on Hero Fest, so they'll probably save him for another month.
  • Surtr - Extremely low odds, since he's still relatively new, they'll probably give us Laegjarn and Brave Ephraim in his place. It's too early to see when he may appear, but I suspect it could be as soon as February.
  • Quan - Good odds, he's the next blue in line. I wouldn't rule out Ophelia cutting him in line though. Probably the one unit in my predicted list that I have the least faith in appearing because they probably don't think he's flashy enough or something.
  • Ophelia - Decent odds, hurt by Quan preceding her and her recent Hero Fest appearance.
  • Kliff - Lowish odds, Ophelia should come first.
  • Ylgr - Lowish odds, it'll only happen if they want her in to represent Book II heroes, but I suspect they'll save her for later. Plus, with Dancing Ryoma probably showing up, I'm hesitant to think we'd get both blue daggers.
  • Loki - Very good odds. Next colorless in line, and the first representative from her banner.
  • Mikoto - Low odds, Loki will probably come first. She's next in line after Loki though.

MY PREDICTED LIST: This is my own guess based on everything above.

  • Legendary Ike
  • Legendary Eirika
  • Laegjarn
  • Legendary Lyn
  • Dancing Elincia
  • Brave Ephraim
  • Legendary Tiki
  • Dancing Ryoma
  • Quan
  • New Colorless Mythic (uh, I dunno, one of the major RD characters, endgame style)
  • Summer Linde
  • Loki

WHO'S THAT POKEMON NEW HERO? Knowing that this is a Mythic hero does help narrow down the candidates a bit, what's tricky is that we have no way of knowing which blessing type they represent. It's fair to assume that they won't be Light since they'd be extremely redundant with Eir around. I do think we'd get Dark or Anima first since that would let people use the Defensive support, and I'm inclined to say Anima since it wouldn't function the same time as Eir does-- they probably wanna spread those blessings out, or else there's less reason to pull for Anima later if you already have Light and Dark heroes. That aside, here are some random guesses/thoughts (please use spoiler tags when discussing other FE games and clearly mark them):

  • Radiant Dawn Endgame Spoilers:
Spoiler
  • Micaiah (Dark) - Biggest thing in her favor is that her affinity in RD is Dark, though I kinda feel like they'd have made her a Legendary hero, not a Mythic one. Still, a strong candidate and one of the few characters that makes sense as a colorless hero without having to make a stretch.
  • Lehran (Light) - Neat, but we already have a colorless Light hero, so it ain't gonna happen, at least not this month. I could see them giving him Astra instead though.
  • Ashera (Astra) - I figure Astra is closest to the Heaven affinity, and I have no idea who else would match that
  • I'm deliberately going overboard with the "Radiant Dawn coming in January" thing because why not
  • Athos (Anima) - The most "mythic" Anima person I can think of, though he'd also work as a red tome user
  • I dunno, you people figure it out. I don't know anything about Geneology, SS, or Archanea stuff
  • Note that all of these are (probably) staff users, which is the one weapon type we don't have as a Legendary or Mythic... not counting beasts, of course.

FUTURE ANALYSIS: 

  • February: Hrid, Ephraim, Gunnthra, Robin, New Legendary
  • March: Ryoma, Lucina, Azura, Eir, New Green Mythic
  • April: Marth, Hector, Fjorm, New Legendary
  • Between Brave Celica and Ephraim, one should appear this month, the other will appear next month
  • Regarding seasonals, here's my preliminary guesswork for when they'll appear down the road:
    Spoiler
    • February: Xander, Micaiah, Niles
    • March: Myrrh, Kagero, Mia
    • April: Eirika, Ephraim, Fae
    • May: NY peoples I guess, too soon to list which but Hrid and Gunnthra on separate banners

     

Previous threads: 

Edited by Johann
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 83
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

55 minutes ago, Johann said:

MY PREDICTED LIST: This is my own guess based on everything above.

  • Legendary Ike
  • Legendary Eirika
  • Laegjarn
  • Legendary Lyn
  • Dancing Elincia
  • Brave Ephraim
  • Legendary Tiki
  • Dancing Ryoma
  • Quan
  • New Colorless Mythic (uh, I dunno, one of the major RD characters, endgame style)
  • Summer Linde
  • Loki

Well if this is true I'm gonna be in green hell again. God knows I need Brave Ephraim's Special Fighter x10. Would also take another Legendary Lyn for Spd Tactic, and Dancer Elincia is probably good fodder for something too.

Don't care much for the rest, Laegjarn is cool but I don't need more sword fliers. Really hoping that I don't like the new mythic hero, I really don't want to be pity broken by Loki :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I really hope that's the banner.

Red: Eirika is a monster and I like cavalry swords so she is welcome.  

Laegjarn: Need one to merge to my +Atk -spd and neutralise her Spd

Ike: Nice fodder (A and C slot)

 

Green: Lyn Spd tactic

Elincia: either her dagger or her A skill can be foddered or she will make a quite good dancer.

Ephraim: good unit and good fodder

 

Blue: Tiki even though I need her so much and I like her a lot she comes in a bad blue 

Ryoma: have L!Azura as a blue dancer and she is way better than him

Quan: He is useless to me and won't add anything to my teams

 

Colourless: Loki nice fodder or can be built as I have a spare dazzling staff

Linde: don't care about her at all

New mythic: If it is Endgame Micaiah (Yune) then I will be pulling like mad if not then just red and possibly a green

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, aside from a dual rally+, Quan really has nothing to make him impressive in any way. Can't say he's completely out, but I'd be more surprised if he were in than if he got skipped.

I kinda hope the banner does play out like this, though, and that it's not light priestess Miccy. It'd give me a chance to save orbs after the painnof failing to get Hrid.

Red: Got Ike and Laeg. Eirika is good, but I have so many sword cavs and something in her art just isn't appealing to me at all.

Green: Dancing Elincia would be lovely--any Elincia would be--but  not enough to pull as I have the other two.

Blue: Ryoma is eh, have Quan, Ophelia would be nice but eh, and I loathe Tiki's art.

Colorless: Have Loki, though with coming changes a merge would be somewhat nice. Linde seems cool, but I'm lukewarm on both seasonals and dagger units, even if I love cavs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I really hope we don't get a Micaiah alt right now. That may sound odd coming from me but I have reasons!

1) After the RD banner I am going to have like 0 orbs which stinks when you want a unit really badly and don't like to spend money.

2) If she gets an alt her CYL chances plummet and I want her to win CYL3 XD

Honestly though so long as she doesn't show up I can do a free pull and skip this month's legendary banner.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s funny that all the Micaiah fans are hoping that she doesn’t show up. I get the feeling, since Mythcaiah would totally cause me to drain my orbs, and if I don’t get enough luck, my wallet. 

Sad thing is, she IS the obvious choice, and I’m not expecting IntSys to jebait us with the first non-OC mythic. I’m ready to snipe for her. 

Also, on the subject of mythics, I doubt we’ll get many actual gods or deitys as mythics. I think it’s not going to be much different than legendaries, with lords and other important characters filling the roles, except that they can be connected to gods in some way. For example I could definitely see Sigurd and Eliwood as mythics, representing Baldo and Roland. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Garlyle said:

Last I checked we did not see Ayra as a focus unit for 8 months now. I'll keep an eye on her.

Do you mean you're hoping she appears on this banner? I wouldn't count on it since they've stuck to using newer units for a few months now

2 minutes ago, Jave said:

Also, on the subject of mythics, I doubt we’ll get many actual gods or deitys as mythics. I think it’s not going to be much different than legendaries, with lords and other important characters filling the roles, except that they can be connected to gods in some way. For example I could definitely see Sigurd and Eliwood as mythics, representing Baldo and Roland. 

So more like Celica rather than Mila, right? Makes sense. It'll be interesting to see what they do since this'll likely be the first non-OC Mythic, presuming that they don't pull a Gunnthra on us

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm guessing the upcoming mythic hero's element will be Astra, followed by Anima in March and Dark in May.

Anima seems pretty low-value until Astra is released, since they take place in the same season but Astra has a much bigger impact on score, due to being the offense one. So I don't think they'd release Anima before Astra.

Meanwhile, because everyone got a free Eir, the first Dark mythic hero will make it easy to complete a full offense/defense set for light/dark seasons. So at that point, anyone who isn't too worried about astra/anima weeks will be able to reach tiers about as high as they can get purely on light/dark seasons. That seems like it'll decrease the appeal of Astra and Anima heroes, so I think they'll hold off on the first Dark hero until after releasing the first Astra and Anima ones.

Having Anima in March would line it up with the Binding Blade banner, which is sort of fitting, except apparently the hero for that month is green and that seems like the least likely color for Athos to be. Although it doesn't have to be him.

It might be a bit redundant for the first Astra hero to be colorless like the first Light hero, but that could also be a deliberate choice to make their influence on team construction neutral, color-wise?

As for this month's character, I think the FE10 endgame theory sounds likely enough:

Ashera seems like the best candidate, followed by Sephiran/Lehran if he isn't the GHB. Although I think it would be pretty strange for him to not be the GHB.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am planning to skip the January Legendary Banner. I was planning to skip December's banner too, but Azura made me summon on it. I got 4 focus heroes, which wasn't bad.

Mythic Micaiah or Ashera will not make me summon on it, since I am not a huge fan of the Tellius characters. Don't get me wrong, they are great characters, but they are not of my interest.

Edited by Diovani Bressan
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

Gonna make a bold prediction and say that if the next Mythic isn't an OC, then it'll be...Dheginsea.

Perhaps, if they're willing to make him colorless. I'm also not sure what they might do with dragon laguz: grouping them into the "beast" type would be weird, but so would having other laguz use a transformation system while lumping dragons into breath with the manaketes.

And that's a good point that it could just be an OC. Whether or not we meet another colorless one in the meantime, they could just pull a Gunnthra.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Othin said:

Perhaps, if they're willing to make him colorless. I'm also not sure what they might do with dragon laguz: grouping them into the "beast" type would be weird, but so would having other laguz use a transformation system while lumping dragons into breath with the manaketes.

And that's a good point that it could just be an OC. Whether or not we meet another colorless one in the meantime, they could just pull a Gunnthra.

kurthnaga and deghinsea changed movement type upon transforming, I think they might for that reason alone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, thecrimsonflash said:

kurthnaga and deghinsea changed movement type upon transforming, I think they might for that reason alone.

Kurthnaga is kinda weird, most Laguz gain Mov on transforming, even Dheg apparently does (not that one would know since we never see him unshifted in battle). Kurthnaga on the other hand loses it, while like Dheg becoming a flier. Movement loss + flight... a hybrid unit type called Flying Armor anyone? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, bottlegnomes said:

So the identity of the mythic hero just came to me! Dagger Ike. I mean, Ragnell is a throwing weapon in Awakening.

Comes with Close Counter too for all range combat.

Throw in Atk/Spd/Def/Res+4, Blade tome effect, no HP threshold Vantage, Special Fighter, and Special Spiral for good measure to make sure we hit higher sales target this month.

Also give him the Eclipse Special with a cooldown of 2, which multiplies his Atk by 5 and cuts enemy Def/Res by 100% on triggering.

Balance? Power creep? What are those? Never heard of those terms before.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't want Micaiah. so I am gonna brace myself that she'll be hit with this stupid mythic hero nonsense.(I want her to be a Legendary :( )
I want Green (Elincia/Lyn), Anything in Blue (I need another infantry blue dancer). and Summer Linde would be nice. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The one problem I have with 

Spoiler

Ashera 

being the legendary is that there's no real weapon type that exists in the game currently to match her weapon type at least as far as I know considering I haven't played Radiant Dawn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Alistair said:

The one problem I have with 

  Reveal hidden contents

Ashera 

being the legendary is that there's no real weapon type that exists in the game currently to match her weapon type at least as far as I know considering I haven't played Radiant Dawn.

In the game, her weapon ranks are in fire, thunder, wind, light, dark, and strike. (Strike is the laguz attacks.)

I don't think her Judge attack technically has a weapon type, but it can count as light magic when she uses certain effects, and other effects resemble staffs. There are also dark Judge attacks, but they seem to be unused.

I think if she was added, it'd probably be as a staff user, which is ironic since she doesn't actually have a staff rank. The most powerful staff is named after her, though, and staffs seem thematically most fitting outside of maybe light magic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even if Micaiah is a good candidate for a dark mythic, nothing says we'll get her right now. Look how long it took them to make Marth's legendary even though he was one of the most obvious picks for a legendary in general. IS has gotten too unpredictable for me to try and anticipate a particular unit anymore, or at least when they'll do them. It could even be an OC or something.

If the colorless pool turns out to have those units and the new mythic interests me, I might pull for that. A Loki to +1 my current one and fix her -atk bane or a Summer Linde who I missed would be fine pity breakers. None of the other colors seem likely to have enough stuff I want to pull them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...