February 2019 Legendary Banner Expectations

[Johann]

NEXT MONTH'S THREAD:

Please use the most recent thread if you intend to make posts about future banners. Feel free to use this thread for analysis of trends, etc.

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Ugh I typed up a whole thing and it all got lost somehow when I hit undo at one point, so I might be a bit brief this post.

LEGENDARIES/MYTHICS: The following are confirmed based on the notifications:

• Hrid
• Gunnthra
• Legendary Ephraim
• Legendary Robin
• New Legendary Hero (unknown color)

The unknown color for this hero makes predictions extra difficult

SEASONALS: Two dancers in January, will we see that again in February? We will see at least one, for sure.

• Dancing Micaiah - Very good odds, she's probably in unless we get a red Legendary.
• Dancing Xander - Extremely good odds, he has no competition for his color slot.
• Halloween Niles - Very good odds, next in line and I think they don't see much of a reason to put him on the same banner as Lucina since they share a weapon type.
• Halloween Kagero - Good odds, I suspect they'll save her for next month though
• Halloween Myrrh - Extremely poor odds, being behind Micaiah, and red has very little room this month.
• Halloween Mia - Extremely poor odds, being behind Xander, who is extremely likely.

REGULAR 5★ HEROES: Things are getting a little easier to predict here, as we've seen some recent trends

• Brave Celica - Extremely high odds, being the last CYL2 unit to appear
• Owain - Decent odds, there was Hero Fest but he's also the next in line among regular reds. Probably no room for him though.
• Adrift Camilla - Low odds, Owain should be coming first unless they feel Hero Fest was too soon.
• Olwen (green tome) - Very low odds, as she's been skipping repeatedly. I also don't think they'd put her on a banner with Gunnthra
• Surtr - Good odds. Judging by how they skipped ahead to get the Muspell Generals out there, I suspect they might do the same with Surtr/Ylgr. This banner is also probably one of the last ones for a while to not feature a variety of powerful armor units, especially those with Fighter skills, so they might get him in right away.
• Lewyn - Good odds, moreso if Surtr is "too soon". Hero Fest hurts his chances though.
• Adrift Corrin F - Lowish odds, Lewyn or Surtr will probably come first unless their conflicts delay them.
• Quan - Very low odds, he's been skipped before and I don't think they'll put him on the same banner as Ephraim.
• Ophelia - Good odds, hurt by Quan preceding her and her recent Hero Fest appearance.
• Ylgr - Decent odds, for similar reasons as Surtr but without the baggage of being Surtr
• Adrift Corrin M - Low odds. Quite a few blues to get through, but he doesn't have conflicts like the others.
• Mikoto - Very high odds, she's next in line among a very limited pool. Only thing in her way would be a colorless Legendary.
• Brave Veronica - Lowish odds, it might be too soon for a rerun of CYL2 units until after all 4 have appeared, but as the Brave Lyn of this batch, I'm sure she'll also be making more surprise reappearances throughout the year than any of the others.

MY PREDICTED LIST: This is my own guess based on everything above and a few glasses of wine. There are a lot of units in here that I'm not super confident about, owing to the new hero being potentially any color, so I'd recommend reading everything above if you're trying to make an informed decision about saving orbs.

• Hrid
• Brave Celica
• Dancing Micaiah
• Gunnthra
• Surtr
• New Green Legendary - I dunno, axe cavalry Xander (fire)
• Legendary Ephraim
• Halloween Niles
• Ophelia
• Legendary Robin
• Dancing Xander
• Mikoto

WHO'S THAT POKEMON NEW HERO? This hero will be Legendary #15, and the 3rd of the third wave of Legendaries. They will be either Fire or Earth type, and I'm expecting Fire since January is almost certainly Earth season, while February will be Fire. Additionally, a Fire hero will be giving +Spd as their boost, so that may help narrow down the possibilities. The hardest part to predict is their color-- it could be any of the 4, leading to possibilities of unusual weapon choices. For what it's worth, we currently have 5 red, 5 blue, 3 green, and 3 colorless heroes. March and April are assured to have green and colorless as well.

• Roy: The popular pick. Fire and Spd certainly works for him, and Binding Blade has no representation on these banners. If he uses his sword, I expect him to be a different movement type than Infantry, to differentiate him from Marth.
• Eliwood: Will they round out the Blazing Blade trio? I doubt he would get such a coveted spot before Roy.
• Lilina: What could be our first red tome Legendary also seems unlikely before Roy.
• Celica: Earth or Fire both make sense, and she can be made to fit any color realistically, but will they release a SoV hero right after Duma? I suspect not, but then again we got Marth and Tiki back to back.
• Alm: Same as Celica
• Micaiah: I could see them adding her as an Earth hero, and Res certainly suits her. Many speculate she could be a Dark Mythic hero, but it's also possible that they have more than enough Dark characters to pick from. Note also that April's hero is a colorless Legendary, so if Feb is Fire, April could realistically be Earth Micaiah with a staff.
• Xander?!?: This is my "Alm with a red bow" pick. I do think sooner or later, he will show up and Earth or Fire suit him well enough.
• Camilla: kill me

FUTURE ANALYSIS: 

• March: Ryoma, Lucina, Azura, Eir, New Green Mythic
• April: Ike, Marth, Hector, Fjorm, New Colorless Legendary
• May: Eirika, Tiki, Lyn, Duma, New Mythic (unknown color)
• CYL2's cycle should, in theory, start over again in March. How that plays out remains to be seen, and it's certainly possible that they do what they did with CYL1 and not have any order to this-- recall that Brave Roy never returned to these banners. I anticipate Veronica returning rather regularly.

Previous threads: 

• June 2018 Banner Expectations
• July 2018 Banner Expectations
• August 2018 Banner Expectations
• September 2018 Banner Expectations
• October 2018 Banner Expectations
• November 2018 Banner Expectations
• December 2018 Banner Expectations
• January 2019 Banner Expectations

Edited February 28, 2019 by Johann

[Othin]

Extending my train of thought from the previous thread to see about implications for later banners:

• February: Hrid, Brave Celica, [Legendary Roy], Legendary Ephraim, Halloween Niles, Adrift Corrin, Gunnthra, Halloween Kagero, Lewyn, Legendary Robin, Dancing Xander, Mikoto
• March: Legendary Ryoma, Dancing Micaiah, Adrift Camilla, Legendary Lucina, Legendary Azura, Ylgr, Halloween Fae, Adrift Corrin, [Mila], Eir, Halloween Mia, Veronica
• April: Legendary Ike, Legendary Marth, Halloween Myrrh, Fjorm, Christmas Ephraim, Nailah, Legendary Hector, Surtr, Brave Ephraim, Christmas Eirika, Leanne, [Legendary Micaiah?]

Double Ephraims in April is weird, but we've gotten double Grima, double Lyn, and three instances of double Ike. But Surtr appearing alongside two other axe armors seems unrealistic.

Man, even with shuffling, there's a lot of green armors here. I like the idea of a red Roy in February, but maybe you're right about there being another green legendary hero there. Surtr in February also looks reasonable, either way.

[Diovani Bressan]

• I don't have Hríd and Brave Celica, so Red will be a good color for me. I got Owain on the Hero Fest and as my free summon on the VG banner, but I wouldn't mind another copy of him.
• Green can be a good color too, because I would like extra copies of Gunnthrá for my merged one, and I believe Lewyn is possible to appear. Surtr is not something that I would be mad to get. My Silas could enjoy some Steady Stance 4.
• Blue is... Hm... Quan already pity broke me twice, I already have Ephraim, and only Ylgr will not make me summon on this color.
• Colorless can be skipped by me if the units are the ones predicted on this topic. I have all of them.

[Johann]

46 minutes ago, Othin said:

Man, even with shuffling, there's a lot of green armors here. I like the idea of a red Roy in February, but maybe you're right about there being another green legendary hero there. Surtr in February also looks reasonable, either way.

Yeah, Roy, specifically as a red hero, made a lot of sense to me, especially because you were discussing it earlier, and I nearly went with a completely different prediction that made room for him (swapping Micaiah with Kagero in the seasonal slot). I just really can't see them putting any of those armors with Surtr, and I really think he'll be on it since it gets even more complicated down the road if he's not.

[MirandaFriege]

 I would like to see lewyn and Adfit F Corrin in the greens

[Othin]

5 minutes ago, Johann said:

Yeah, Roy, specifically as a red hero, made a lot of sense to me, especially because you were discussing it earlier, and I nearly went with a completely different prediction that made room for him (swapping Micaiah with Kagero in the seasonal slot). I just really can't see them putting any of those armors with Surtr, and I really think he'll be on it since it gets even more complicated down the road if he's not.

Hmm. Thinking about what that might look like, going with your February prediction of Hrid/Celica/Micaiah/Ephraim/Niles/Ophelia/Gunnthra/Surtr/Robin/Xander/Mikoto and a new green:

• March: Legendary Ryoma, Halloween Myrrh, Adrift Camilla, Legendary Lucina, Legendary Azura, Adrift Corrin, Halloween Kagero, Lewyn, [NEW MYTHIC], Eir, Halloween Mia, Veronica
• April: Legendary Ike, Legendary Marth, NY [Hrid/Gunnthra], Fjorm, Ylgr, Brave Hector, Legendary Hector, Christmas Fae, Adrift Corrin, Christmas Eirika, Leanne, [NEW LEGENDARY]

That seems workable. Gets double Hector, but that's fine. Ophelia and Lewyn wait a bit to space out from Hero Fest, while Owain and Quan get skipped entirely to make room for the doubling up on red and blue legendaries.

[Johann]

1 minute ago, Othin said:

Hmm. Thinking about what that might look like, going with your February prediction of Hrid/Celica/Micaiah/Ephraim/Niles/Ophelia/Gunnthra/Surtr/Robin/Xander/Mikoto and a new green:

• March: Legendary Ryoma, Halloween Myrrh, Adrift Camilla, Legendary Lucina, Legendary Azura, Adrift Corrin, Halloween Kagero, Lewyn, [NEW MYTHIC], Eir, Halloween Mia, Veronica
• April: Legendary Ike, Legendary Marth, NY [Hrid/Gunnthra], Fjorm, Ylgr, Brave Hector, Legendary Hector, Christmas Fae, Adrift Corrin, Christmas Eirika, Leanne, [NEW LEGENDARY]

That seems workable. Gets double Hector, but that's fine. Ophelia and Lewyn wait a bit to space out from Hero Fest, while Owain and Quan get skipped entirely to make room for the doubling up on red and blue legendaries.

I went back to count how often the CYL1 heroes appeared on the banners, here's the breakdown:

• November: Lyn
• December: Roy
• January: Lucina
• February: Ike
• March: Lyn & Lucina
• April: (none)
• May: (none)
• June: Ike
• July: Lyn
• August: Lucina
• September: Ike
• October: (none)

So Ike, Lyn, and Lucina had 3 banners each, and Roy had 1, while 3 banners had none of them. That lack of pattern makes me think CYL2 will also have a lot of surprise placements, and that those 4 can be expected at any time, so long as there's room and no conflicts. If I had to guess, Ephraim will be the Roy this time around due to all those green armors creating a conflict for him.

[Othin]

5 minutes ago, Johann said:

I went back to count how often the CYL1 heroes appeared on the banners, here's the breakdown:

• November: Lyn
• December: Roy
• January: Lucina
• February: Ike
• March: Lyn & Lucina
• April: (none)
• May: (none)
• June: Ike
• July: Lyn
• August: Lucina
• September: Ike
• October: (none)

So Ike, Lyn, and Lucina had 3 banners each, and Roy had 1, while 3 banners had none of them. That lack of pattern makes me think CYL2 will also have a lot of surprise placements, and that those 4 can be expected at any time, so long as there's room and no conflicts. If I had to guess, Ephraim will be the Roy this time around due to all those green armors creating a conflict for him.

Interesting. I think Ephraim may take a break for a while, but red is still crowded enough that I think Celica will show up the least, while Ephraim should get opportunities every once in a while when they need more green. It won't always be this packed with green armors.

[Anacybele]

This should be Mythic Heroes banner expectations and a new mythic hero coming up, as there are no more legendary heroes, I think, only mythic ones.

I hope for Ashunera or Yune, personally. Ashera would make sense too, but I like Ashunera and Yune's designs more. Ashunera should be an Astra hero imo. I just feel like she fits that one best. And Yune could be using Micaiah's body and be Dark since goddess of Chaos. If we get Ashera, probably Light so she's the direct opposite of her other half. I'd dig Yune using her own form too though, since she's really cute.

Edited January 31, 2019 by Anacybele

[Othin]

5 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

This should be Mythic Heroes banner expectations and a new mythic hero coming up, as there are no more legendary heroes, I think, only mythic ones.

I hope for Ashunera or Yune, personally. Ashera would make sense too, but I like Ashunera and Yune's designs more. Ashunera should be an Astra hero imo. I just feel like she fits that one best. And Yune could be using Micaiah's body and be Dark since goddess of Chaos. If we get Ashera, probably Light so she's the direct opposite of her other half. I'd dig Yune using her own form too though, since she's really cute.

No, they said they'll alternate each month between mythic and legendary.

[Anacybele]

1 minute ago, Othin said:

No, they said they'll alternate each month between mythic and legendary.

Since when? I've never seen this said anywhere.

[Sunwoo]

We should at the very least have two more legendaries coming up to fill out that first 16 square chart we got. Else we fuck up fire and earth by only having three of each.

[Othin]

1 minute ago, Anacybele said:

Since when? I've never seen this said anywhere.

https://feheroes.gamepedia.com/What's_in_Store_for_the_3.0.0_Update_(Notification)

"The next Mythic Hero will debut in late January, 2019. After that, new Legendary Heroes and Mythic Heroes will take turns debuting at the end of each month."

[Anacybele]

2 minutes ago, Othin said:

https://feheroes.gamepedia.com/What's_in_Store_for_the_3.0.0_Update_(Notification)

"The next Mythic Hero will debut in late January, 2019. After that, new Legendary Heroes and Mythic Heroes will take turns debuting at the end of each month."

Oh. Meh, kinda disappointing, as I'm looking more forward to mythic heroes now since there isn't really anyone else I'd want to be a legendary at the moment unless Elincia has a chance. But oh well.

[Tree]

Because there are many more candidates for legendaries than mythics, I think it is possible that once they have a couple for each mythic element, they will scale them back to one a quarter. (A new mythic every three banners rather than every other one.)  This would result in around eight new legendaries and four new mythics per year. Also, mythics tend to associate with colorless more so than most legendaries, so I think they will use mythic heroes to help limit repeats of colorless mythic/legendary units on these banners.

[Othin]

1 minute ago, Tree said:

Because there are many more candidates for legendaries than mythics, I think it is possible that once they have a couple for each mythic element, they will scale them back to one a quarter. (A new mythic every three banners rather than every other one.)  This would result in around eight new legendaries and four new mythics per year. Also, mythics tend to associate with colorless more so than most legendaries, so I think they will use mythic heroes to help limit repeats of colorless mythic/legendary units on these banners.

Depends on how exactly they approach the mythics. We've only seen one so far. There are a lot of ancient characters, like the Jugdral/Elibe/Magvel/Tellius nation founders, who might qualify. (Although none of those even made it onto CYL.)

They'll also run out of good legendary candidates. We've got a big chunk of the lords already.

[Landmaster]

Dancing Xander's CC and Dagger calls to me, I will try to get one~ Micaiah merges would be nice but would rather not have to go through Hrid to get her, ugh~

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I'm hoping February gives us Legendary Roy, poor dude deserves it. He's the only one of the CYL 1 winners to have not gotten the Legendary treatment yet. And since February will most likely give us another Fire hero coupled with the Binding Blade banner in March, Roy makes a lot of sense.

[Tree]

1 hour ago, Othin said:

Depends on how exactly they approach the mythics. We've only seen one so far. There are a lot of ancient characters, like the Jugdral/Elibe/Magvel/Tellius nation founders, who might qualify. (Although none of those even made it onto CYL.)

They'll also run out of good legendary candidates. We've got a big chunk of the lords already.

I'm sure that mythics will come in all the different colors. I think their colorless percentage will probably be higher than the legendary colorless percentage. Now that mythics are available, I think the "legendary" category will probably expand to include lord-like characters such as Zelgius, Elincia, Kurthnaga, etc. When they exhaust that level (which will take awhile), then even characters like Ninian or Lilina could have a chance.

[Mau]

I would love for this prediction to be true. Distant Counter and Death Blow 4 in the same color? Hell yes. Just gotta hope I don't get Micaiah cause she doesn't have very useful fodder to me and I really do not need more red tomes, dancing or not.

The rest of the colors I can (probably) safely ignore, except if the green legendary is awesome, which I hope not haha.

[IEatLasers]

Either Chrom or Michiah. About time they got legendaries!

[daisy jane]

I am gonna hope. that Ophelia will be for March. pls.

 

[silverserpent]

Either way, pulling red at the end. Hríd and dancing Micaiah are my priorities, and if there's a second red legendary? i'll take that, too.

[SuperNova125]

I just hope Lewyn isn't here as I am saving orbs for the anniversary and binding blade banner. I need some special spirals (especially Saber and Sanaki). It all depends on the legendary hero. I think that the upcoming mythic banner is better and possibly I will save for that one (I need to fix Lucina's -Atk) also H! Myrrh will be there most likely and I NEED armor march.

[EricaofRenais]

Well since my favorite lords have legendary versions already and this new one won't be mythic I am really hoping I can skip this banner.  Of course if they end up coming out with a blue flying dragon I will be all in, but I don't think there will be a dragon legendary this time.  I think Xander is a safe guess for this time, since the new heroes banner is Fates, but that doesn't make it 100%.  I am kind of hoping for FE 4/5 to get a rep this time since they have yet to get one.