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Binding Blade Banner Speculation Thread


Alistair
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According to this chart, we should be expecting the Binding Blade banner within a week. Should be fun to speculate about.

My guess is that it's gonna be the same format as the Laguz Royals Banner, i.e. 4 banner units of each color and one GHB unit with no alts. Considering that Binding Blade doesn't have anything as noteworthy as a new weapon type to introduce, it's somewhat more challenging to predict who would get in a banner. 

If I had complete control of the banner choices, I would put Rutger, Miledy, Echdina (as an axe unit) and Yoder (as a staff unit) on the banner, with Murdock (armored axe) as the GHB. I expect the actual banner to have either royals or playable characters from Bern; in other words, I think Elphin, Guinevere and Brunnya or all likely banner units, with the Dragon Generals and Jahn being particularly likely GHB candidates. 

Edited by Alistair
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Rutger is the only lock in my opinion. If he's not on the banner, he's the ghb unit. 

Not sure about Miledy's chances since she's another Minerva type and I'm pretty sure they're on the verge of releasing Jill. Plus Altena is also more high profile than she is.

Likely candidates imo include Sue, Perceval, Gonzales, Echidna and Guinevere. 

Edited by Vince777
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According to CYL 2 (CYL 3 in quotes), the top 10 non-playable FE6 characters are:

  1. Idunn - 151 (83)
  2. Rutger - 159 (138)
  3. Lugh - 230 (208)
  4. Dieck - 239 (196)
  5. Gonzales - 265 (306)
  6. Lot - 276 (drops out, replaced by Melady at 307)
  7. Sue - 286 (230)
  8. Perceval - 307 (218)
  9. Echidna - 319 (252)
  10. Wolt - 321 (260)

Based on CYL 3, the only change appears to be order save Lot and Melady. CYL 1 looks to be about the same, just with Thite instead of Sue. So that's 8 characters who have consistently been in the top 10 most requested so to speak, with Idunn, Rutger, Lugh, and Dieck always seeming to be at the higher end. Based on that, and story importance, I'm going to guess:

Banner:

  • Lugh - Green infantry mage
  • Guinevere - Blue infantry mage
  • Rutger - Red infantry sword
  • Idunn - colorless armored dragon

GHB: Perceval, Murdock, or Brunya.

I could see Rutger as the GHB with Echinda, Sue, or Melady rounding out the banner, but he seems like a good choice for token broken infantry sword as well as more chance to show off the new gen 3 infantry stats on top of being definitely among the most popular.

Lugh is to round out Nino's family and probably be the drop.

Guinevere is very pretty and probably the most plot important character in FE6 not already in which is why she edged out Dieck. He was cut instead of one of the others because he feels like he might come across as too similar to Rutger (if you squint, which I feel like IS would in this case), in addition to not being as conventionally handsome in the way most of the male FE characters tend to be. Guinevere is also their chance to make a really strong infantry mage which they seem to like to do (Lewyn, Ishtar, Ophelia). Blue to reference her ability to use light magic.

Idunn I could also see being the GHB, but she did score among the top 3 in every CYL from what I saw, on top of being another chance to toss in a powerful dragon and being cute. Armored to make her more appealing for top tier arena and because she's a big-ass final boss dragon, even if she is weak as hell in cannon. Also a little bit because 4 infantry on the banner seemed weird to me. Colorless seemed the most fitting, but I could see red or something to differentiate her from Duma. I could also see her being a legendary or, bit of a stretch, mythic down the line.

For GHB, all three start as enemies, Perceval scored the best, but Brunya and Murdock are more story important and seem more appealing as units in general. Murdock has all that armory goodness and Brunya should be getting gen 3 infantry BST, which should put her in the 156 BST range and is also an attractive woman. Perceval would be my personal favorite, but he is a melee cav. Those aren't as a whole terribly impressive, and we did just get one as a GHB. Maybe if they made him an axe cav, gave a nice personal weapon, and he had a Finn/Camus type statline to set him apart from the rest of the axe cavs? Axe seems a bit weird for him, but it'd make him stand out more than swords or lances and he can use them in cannon.

That's just my two cents, and who knows, they could pull something crazy out.

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I hope it will be

1. Wolt

2. Lugh ( preferably not blue. We’re swimming in good blue mages already)

3. Echidna

4. Niime

5. Dieck/Miledy (tempest trial?)

however I am almost certain Rutger will make it in and Percival might have a good shot. Not exited for either of the two. Sue could show up too and that would be very nice.

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I expect Rutger as a sword infantry and Idunn as a colorless infantry dragon. Not sure about the others, but Lugh would make a lot of sense. I'm inclined to go with Melady or Echidna for the last slot. Maybe Sue if she gets a colored bow or if they're willing to double up on colors.

Bruunya and Murdock seem like the most obvious GHB candidates but neither of them are super popular. Perceval would also make sense and is more popular.

6 hours ago, Florete said:

I don't think there will be a related GHB. I think the next TT will be linked to the banner instead.

The issue with that is that the late March banner should be the spring one. We've consistently been getting one free unit associated with each banner for the past few months, and there's never been a seasonal GHB so the seasonal free units have always been TTs.

Although I guess they could do an unrelated GHB, like Gharnef being the free unit "with" the Fire and Ice banner. And there are a lot of noteworthy villains still missing. (I'd say Travant, Nergal, Ashnard, and Sephiran are the big ones, although I'm guessing Ashnard will get in with an FE9 banner in the next few months.)

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My speculation is somebody gets the Karla treatment, taking a lower-popularity character and turn them into bait. Alternatively I would have considered a Roy or Lilina alt in the normal pool, but 2 Roys 2 weeks apart seems highly unlikely.

Sue and Miledy would be nice additions and seem like good candidates to give the Karla-type makeover to as well. Imagine Sue one-upping BLyn's stats and taking Firesweep cav cancer to the next lev- actually okay, let's not do that, thank you..

I definitely feel like some kind of Karla type thing or another powercreep skill will be on the banner(Swift Impact, anyone?), since most of the remaining BB characters don't sound like too big of a draw otherwise.

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I will be happy if I get Elphin that is the person I want most, but I know he probably won't be on this.  I am expecting the top placers from CYL to be the banner picks.  If I can't have Elphin I am hoping for Jahn to be the GHB unit because I want more male dragons.

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2 hours ago, Othin said:

The issue with that is that the late March banner should be the spring one. We've consistently been getting one free unit associated with each banner for the past few months, and there's never been a seasonal GHB so the seasonal free units have always been TTs.

Although I guess they could do an unrelated GHB, like Gharnef being the free unit "with" the Fire and Ice banner. And there are a lot of noteworthy villains still missing. (I'd say Travant, Nergal, Ashnard, and Sephiran are the big ones, although I'm guessing Ashnard will get in with an FE9 banner in the next few months.)

It's about timing. TTs have been starting around the middle of the month. Not only that, if the next TT were to be tied to the banner after this one, it would quite likely be longest gap between TTs yet.

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19 minutes ago, Florete said:

It's about timing. TTs have been starting around the middle of the month. Not only that, if the next TT were to be tied to the banner after this one, it would quite likely be longest gap between TTs yet.

TTs have varied in when they start depending on whether they're tied to the early or late banner in the month.

I do think it would make it the longest gap, but not by much. Suppose we get a Forging Bonds alongside the Binding Blade banner when it launches, on March 8. Two back-to-back Forging Bonds would be a bit strange, but they've done back-to-back TTs before, so I don't think it's unreasonable. And it's their only option for a March Forging Bonds unless they want to make a seasonal one, which they've never done before. Then the TT would probably start either on or close to the end of that Forging Bonds, on March 22, right around when the spring banner should launch. That's 40 days after the start of the Valentine's TT, on February 10.

The biggest previous TT gaps I could find were 37 days from the FE13 TT (March 15) to the FE5 TT (April 21) and 36 days from the Adrift TT (November 12) to the Christmas TT (December 18). 40 days is slightly longer than those, but not by too dramatic of an amount.

Edited by Othin
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Murdock and Brunnya’s lesser popularity probably does not matter for as long as they are introduced as free units.

It’s probably not so much a big variable when it comes to GHB.

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Oh yeah, forgot about Elphin. He and Lalum are pretty good candidates given their plot importance and how much they've liked dancers recently. I could see either of the potentially bumping someone "more popular."

 

22 minutes ago, Vince777 said:

Murdock and Brunnya’s lesser popularity probably does not matter for as long as they are introduced as free units.

It’s probably not so much a big variable when it comes to GHB.

Yes and no. It's not the be-all-end-all, but Murdock's chances aren't looking super great, capping at around 26th (CYL1 ~37, CYL2 ~30), most wanted non-playable FE6 character in CYL3. Brunya's are seeming pretty decent being just outside of the top 10 in CYL2 and 3, ~13 and ~12 respectively, even if her CYL1 rank was a bit low, ~23. Perceval would be an easy candidate given his starting status as enemy character an create a lot of goodwill from IS's PoV given his placement in the top 10 every time. As mentioned, I think the biggest case against him is his class.

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My impression is that they're more willing to put a less popular character as a free unit than as a banner one, but they do still care about popularity for them. For example, recent free units include Panne and Camilla.

This may have become increasingly true with the introduction of Heroic Grails. In the past, if a free unit was popular, it'd just be that everyone would get a few copies of them with minimal effort and that would be that. Now, their fans can get them to +10, but it encourages them to do well in Aether Raids to pull it off.

Edited by Othin
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Banner: Dieck (red sword), Sue (colourless bow), Guinevere (blue tome), Lugh (green tome) or Echidna (green axe)

GHB: Idunn

Is there no TT? Rutger or Gonzalez seem like good fits for that.

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God I wish we get Niime, but I'm expecting Lugh, Melady, and Sue.

If memory serves, Ice Dragon made a good point of Brunnya being easily marketable due to her design and could become a banner hero instead of a GHB, like Ishtar. I wonder if Idunn will become a banner hero because of her relative popularity and we'll get Murdock or Yahn as GHB's instead.

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I want to see old man Marcus, though I'm not sure if he's popular enough.  We need to him to join Jeigan and Gunter in the old man stat penalty club.

Sue being the second Bow Cav in the permanent pool would be nice.

Percival is the unit I'd love to see after Marcus that I think has the best chance.

I'm hoping we get all new units and no alts.  I also hope that the early March banner is the FE6, and we don't have to wait until later in the month.  If we got both a GHB and a TT unit, getting 6 brand new units added would be wonderful, though I can't remember the last time we had 6 units in a banner season.

My picks

GHB Percival: Sword Cav

TT: Marcus: Axe Cav

Sue: Bow Cav

Lugh: Blue Mage

Miledy: Sword Flier

Gonzales: Axe Infantry

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I can see a powerful Lilina alt headlining the banner.  Maybe with a C skill that complements Legendary Roy (+6 def/res human only).  Other alt possibilities yeah Zelgius and old man Hector.  Oh and old man Karel the sword saint. NPC characters that can be featured.  Guinevere could be a big one, she is very attractive, royalty and an important character even if she doesn't fight.  Brunnya already mentioned has the charisma and could be made into an enticing banner unit.  If Melady is on the banner, Galle could be possibly as well. 

For units playable in the game and not yet in Heroes.  Rutger seems like a sure thing and Idunn probably as well.  Dragons always sell, I think.  Sue has a good chance being a cute horse archer, still a rare type in Heroes.  Lugh is popular I guess, and if they launched with Raigh I guess why not.  Geese stands out in the game and also looks really cool maybe a dark horse to make the banner.

As for dancers, after Legendary Azura it is going to be really hard to sell them.  They'll have to have something crazy like  Pulsedance refreshes unit and -1 cooldown to special, or song of Miracles...refreshes unit and unit can not die til next turn.  

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3 hours ago, Lewyn said:

I can see a powerful Lilina alt headlining the banner.  Maybe with a C skill that complements Legendary Roy (+6 def/res human only).  Other alt possibilities yeah Zelgius and old man Hector.  Oh and old man Karel the sword saint. NPC characters that can be featured.  Guinevere could be a big one, she is very attractive, royalty and an important character even if she doesn't fight.  Brunnya already mentioned has the charisma and could be made into an enticing banner unit.  If Melady is on the banner, Galle could be possibly as well. 

For units playable in the game and not yet in Heroes.  Rutger seems like a sure thing and Idunn probably as well.  Dragons always sell, I think.  Sue has a good chance being a cute horse archer, still a rare type in Heroes.  Lugh is popular I guess, and if they launched with Raigh I guess why not.  Geese stands out in the game and also looks really cool maybe a dark horse to make the banner.

As for dancers, after Legendary Azura it is going to be really hard to sell them.  They'll have to have something crazy like  Pulsedance refreshes unit and -1 cooldown to special, or song of Miracles...refreshes unit and unit can not die til next turn.  

Zelgius alt in the FE6 banner?  And I thought he was out of place on Micaiah's banner.

I really hope we don't get another Liliana alt.  As much as I like her, I'd like to get literally anybody else in the cast more.

Rutger will probably get in, but Sword Infantry is so saturated, that short of powercreep, there's little left to distinguish him.

I wonder who the demote will be.  I'm still waiting for a QR3 4* demote.

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2 minutes ago, Tybrosion said:

At this rate, it’ll probably be Leo after he’s mercifully demoted from 5 star exclusivity. 

With no news of any demotions at the 2nd anniversary, I wonder if they're ever going to do another round of demotions.  It would be nice if it became a regular thing, like the new refines we get periodically.

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7 minutes ago, Tybrosion said:

At this rate, it’ll probably be Leo after he’s mercifully demoted from 5 star exclusivity. 

Huh, I was doubtful, but you're right: Quick Riposte is set as his "low rarity" skill, not Savage Blow. Interesting.

I hope he and other 5*s get demoted eventually. I want him, but I can't justify actually spending orbs on him. Alternatively maybe he'll pitybreak me sometime.

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2 minutes ago, Othin said:

Huh, I was doubtful, but you're right: Quick Riposte is set as his "low rarity" skill, not Savage Blow. Interesting.

I hope he and other 5*s get demoted eventually. I want him, but I can't justify actually spending orbs on him. Alternatively maybe he'll pitybreak me sometime.

I'd love to +10 my Leo.  I whaled for my first and second version of him, and have had to rely on pitybreakers for my other copies.  I'm lucky to have him at +4 now.  I got my most recent copy just a few weeks ago.

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Personally, the only characters that would make me actively pull on this banner are Sue and Shin. But the latter's not happening anytime soon, and considering that even now Brave Lyn and Valentine's Roy are the only two bow cavaliers in the game I'm not super optimistic at seeing Sue (or any bow cavalier) right now.

Realistically, I think they could give us Lalum since Genealogy threw both Lene and Silvia at us despite their relatively low popularity. (Wasn't Lene still low-scoring in CYL3?) Rutger, Miledy, and Lugh seem like safe choices. Maybe Ellen or Thea. Hopefully no alts.

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