Voting Gauntlet: Destructive Forces

[mampfoid]

I do have Gharnef, Garon and Robin at 5*. Will go with Robin, so I don't need to switch out my BH!Roy as my rep. 

@Mau Team Grima, gooo! 

[Zangetsu]

So much for original archetype doing well.

 

At least Hardin is doing well enough

[Javi Blizz]

Team Surtr here! If anyone wants to add me, just @ me, I have Niles +10 as my lead

[TheSilentChloey]

Team Grima all the way with a steady stance 4 Grima lead XD I foddered my sorry excuse for a Sutur because Grima was hungry XD

[Diovani Bressan]

I liked that we got 50 flags instead of 5.

[Nym]

31 minutes ago, TheSilentChloey said:

Team Grima all the way with a steady stance 4 Grima lead XD I foddered my sorry excuse for a Sutur because Grima was hungry XD

O_O

[Diovani Bressan]

38 minutes ago, TheSilentChloey said:

Team Grima all the way with a steady stance 4 Grima lead XD I foddered my sorry excuse for a Sutur because Grima was hungry XD

Grima is a great user of Steady Stance 4, since he has a weapon with Distant Counter.

[Diovani Bressan]

This Voting Gauntlet is reminding me the first two VG, where we didn't have multipliers...  Well... at least for the Duma Vs Idunn duel.

@DarkAlf I laugh when I saw the Duma Vs. Idunn tab in your predictor...

[daisy jane]

1 hour ago, Diovani Bressan said:

I liked that we got 50 flags instead of 5.

yeah that was nice! :) and Diovani - we're team mates again (I feel we always are!) your Mar-mar always does me much good in these things! I hope my buckets serve you well. :)  Anyone on team Duma will get Dagger HInoka with Swift Strike + Spd +3 - she'll eat up any dragon for you!

[Diovani Bressan]

4 minutes ago, daisy jane said:

we're team mates again (I feel we always are!) your Mar-mar always does me much good in these things! I hope my buckets serve you well. :)

I didn't get your Hinoka yet, but I know she will be useful, I cheked your Hinoka in my friend list and she is great. And I am glad that my Mar-Mar is helping you.

My Mar-Mar is almost finished, since he is Dragonflowers +8. I just need 370 more red flower. Maybe I need to summon more the new infantry units...

[Landmaster]

6 hours ago, DarkAlf said:

Let's see how things change with this new Voting Gauntlet.  I'm Team Feathers as always.

I alluded to it a couple of times before, but I'd like to announce a new Voting Gauntlet predictor.  If Reddit can have one, why not us?  For posterity, here is the link.

Explanation for why I developed it and how it works in the spoiler space below:

  Hide contents

The current hour is highlighted in purple.  Vote totals should update at about 3-10 minutes after the top of each hour, with the predictions taking about 60-90 seconds to update.  (I force Google Sheets to slow down in order to update since sometimes vote totals might show up as blank at times, and I made sure that it doesn't happen.)  It's fully automated, so after each round the sheets update for the next round immediately.

The Reddit predictor has a few issues that I hope mine addresses at least to some degree.

One problem is that it doesn't account for time zones very well, like when folks from Japan vote vs. those from Europe, those from North America, Australia, etc.  Mine attempts to address this with Score vs. Hour 1 multiplier, which bases the vote predictions on the first hour numbers since the percentages usually don't change a lot.

Another issue is afterglow, which is inflated vote totals the hour after a multiplier.  This is accounted for with the Afterglow multiplier, with most hours assuming a 60% increase in vote totals compared to hours with no multipliers on either side.

Flag spending goes up during disadvantage multipliers, so I account for that with the Flag spending multiplier.  The closer the round gets to ending, the more flags are spent, especially in the final round.  (Some of this is also accounted in the Score vs. hour 1 multiplier, especially in the final round.)

Because of the nature of chaos theory, exact predictions are impossible.  Sometimes they're far off.  So my predictor has what I call a "correction algorithm", which readjusts the three multipliers I mentioned if the predicted vote totals are too high or too low, which one is adjusted depends on what's happening in the current hour.  Hopefully this leads to better predictions.

I have accounted for the new endurance multipliers in my predictor.  It just doesn't look like it right now, and I'm testing a version where it's a bit more visible.  If it works out well, I'll share the link for the second and final rounds.  It might take 2-3 events before I have a better idea of how to readjust my multiplier tables for better results.

I make no claims that my predictor is more accurate or better than the one on Reddit.  It is another tool meant to help guide you in terms of flag spending.

Big thanks go to @Alkaid, @Astellius, @Azuris, @daisy jane, @Maaka, @Mau, @mampfoid and @Landmaster for testing the predictor out the last 3 events! 

Also, thank you to @Diovani Bressanfor putting the link on the first post!

Enjoy this predictor!  If you have any feedback or constructive criticism, please let me know!

Looks like it's working good so far! Great work, Alf!

I'm on Julius for maximum edge~

[Rinco]

Team Hardin here. If anyone wants to add me, 7477653448. 

[HK Motendra]

Reporting in for the Dark Pontifex! Hardin's next, if that doesn't work out

[Robert Stewart]

Joined team Julius because reasons. If he loses I'll probably join team Gharnef. :v

[Jave]

Team Hardin here.

Not feeling the new system yet. Is it better to wait until you’re on a high multiplier to use all you badges and flags?

[Diovani Bressan]

12 minutes ago, Jave said:

Not feeling the new system yet. Is it better to wait until you’re on a high multiplier to use all you badges and flags?

I believe so. basically they changed the one battles each 30 min to one battles each 1 hour, because we get 1 ballot per hour.

The ballots system allows us to spend more flags at the same time. With all 8 ballot we can spend 800 flags, and previous VG the max was 200 flags. I believe it's a smart decision to save 800 flags and 8 ballots during the final 8 hours, so you can attack at maximum power in the last multiplier.

Also, we can get 1900 flags from quests, and IntSys changed the amount of daily flags from 5 to 50, for a total of 2000 flags per round.

[Strullemia]

Wow, Team Idunn is going really strong. Here's hoping I get some victory feathers.

Has anyone tried to use 8x ballots and 200 flags at once? I wanted to test out the system but the game didn't allow me to do that?

[Anacybele]

Fucking hell, NO ONE on my friends list is in Julius?! I'm getting two random allies, not a friend ally and one random ally. This is making battles harder to win because I'm getting weaker allies that are similar in strength to my 4 star Julius. This might've been a mistake.

The new system is neat so far though.

Edited April 1, 2019 by Anacybele

[DarkAlf]

50 minutes ago, Hekselka said:

Has anyone tried to use 8x ballots and 200 flags at once? I wanted to test out the system but the game didn't allow me to do that?

Before, you could spend 5/10/50/100/200 flags.  They changed it to 5/10/25/50/100 in one battle, and you can spend up to 8 times that, so 40/80/200/400/800.  800 is the maximum you can spend in 1 hour since it takes 1 hour for a single ballot to charge up.

4 hours ago, Diovani Bressan said:

I laugh when I saw the Duma Vs. Idunn tab in your predictor...

And it appears it'll stay that way for possibly the entire match.  I aggressively increased the multipliers for the final couple of hours since I reckon there will be tons of folks unloading 800 flags or more during those final hours.

[Stroud]

Team Idunn here. =v
So far I like the improvement. I don't feel like I get totally punished by this mode for daring to go to sleep anymore. 

[Ice Dragon]

WHY THE EVERLOVING FUCK IS EVERY RANDO PERSON'S REP A SWORD IKE? WHAT. THE. FUCK. PEOPLE.

@Garlyle, please change your rep to someone other than Lilina.

@LordFrigid's Myrrh is literally the only non-red friend unit I've been getting.

 

I hate red teams.

[Anacybele]

1 minute ago, Ice Dragon said:

WHY THE EVERLOVING FUCK IS EVERY RANDO PERSON'S REP A SWORD IKE? WHAT. THE. FUCK. PEOPLE.

I'm getting too many red allies too. I think three times now I've wound up with an all-red team. :/ Though not every one of them was Ike. Even so, yeah, wtf...

[Michelaar]

Joined hardin, let's do this

[MisterIceTeaPeach]

Huh, voting gauntlet had a change, and honestly I like that one. 

It does not the player to come back each 30 minutes and gives people who are not here during most of the day (like me) the chance to reach a similar score as a permanent player. 

I hated this mode because of that issue, but it became fairer now finally. 

[Zapp Branniglenn]

After Grand Conquests, the least appealing idea for spicing up a mode in my eyes was to add more stamina elements, but my first impressions of this mode are decent enough. I guess when the bar is set this low anything feels like an improvement.

Edited April 1, 2019 by Glennstavos