April Legendary Banner Expectations

[Johann]

NEXT MONTH'S THREAD:

 

Please use the most recent thread if you intend to make posts about future banners. Feel free to use this thread for analysis of trends, etc.

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Haven't even summoned on the March banner yet, but I'm not gonna drop a lot of orbs myself. Instead, I'm much more interested in what will probably be a major change to these banners going forward. I've included a poll this time to address the elephant in the room about the possible number of units appearing on future banners.

LEGENDARIES/MYTHICS: The following are confirmed based on the notifications:

• Legendary Ike
• Legendary Marth
• Legendary Roy
• Fjorm
• Legendary Hector
• New Legendary Hero

6 Legendaries total! Getting 5 only a few months ago was a nice surprise, but increasing to 6 has some implications, primarily if the number of total heroes will increase from 12 to 16 to accommodate this. Furthermore, June has 6 returning L/M heroes, suggesting we'll see 7 total, furthering the possibility that the pool will be further increased. If not, then it certainly bodes well for people who want to pull Legendaries and Mythics exclusively.

SEASONALS: Halloween seasonals are wrapped up, moving on to the Winter and NY heroes, though it might be as simple as putting the three from Winter in there. Note that while I do suspect an increase from 12 to 16 total heroes on the banner is very possible, I would be surprised if they increased the number of seasonals from 3 to 4.

• Winter Fae - Decent odds. However, being a Vengeful Fighter green armor on the same banner as Legendary Hector suggests to me that they might hold off on her til the following month.
• Winter Ephraim - Extremely good odds, next blue seasonal
• Winter Eirika - Extremely good odds, next colorless seasonal
• NY Gunnthra - Extremely low odds, while her and Hrid are the only reds in line til the Hot Springs banner, there might not even be a slot for non-Legendaries this month. It also seems to me that such a slot would be taken by Owain or Camilla, to round out their banners.
• NY Hrid - Extremely low odds, see Gunnthra
• NY Fjorm - Decent odds, preceded by Fae, but without the conflict of being too similar to Legendary Hector. Of all the NY heroes, she has the best shot.
• NY Laevatein - Extremely low odds, preceded by Eirika

REGULAR 5★ HEROES: Here's where the 12 to 16 possibility gets crazy, especially in regard to red heroes. If there's no increase, red will have no heroes that aren't Legendary Smash boys.

• Adrift Camilla - Decent odds, rounding out the Adrift banner, but dependent on whether or not there's room for more reds. If there are 16 heroes, she'll probably get that 4th red spot.
• Owain - Very low odds. He'd probably be skipped for Camilla since recent Hero Fest characters appeared after Adrift heroes, and putting 4 sword infantry heroes in the same color for these banners is silly.
• Tibarn - Extremely low odds, Camilla and Owain should be appearing before him. He might take a while to show due to there being the 3 red Legendaries, and have the NY heroes to get through as well.
• Brave Roy - Zero chance, there's no room and they didn't seem to want to rerun him in the past either.
• Olwen (green tome) - Very low odds, she's been skipped so many times that it doesn't look good for her. However, she's one of few greens available unless they skip to Kaden or bring someone back. I will probably stop including her on this list after this month.
• Kaden - Low odds. Next green in line, but seems rather recent. I should go through the banner dates sometime to see what the shortest time between debut and Legendary banner has been.
• Brave Ike - Very good odds. Brave Lyn's return shows they're not afraid to bring back CYL1 units, and Ike is a perennial favorite. Green is also very low on possible heroes, which helps his chances above Lucina or Roy.
• Brave Ephraim - Very low odds, putting him the same banner as Legendary Hector is something I can't see them ever doing.
• Other Green repeats - Off the top of my head, not sure who they'd use other than Kana, Helbindi, or Nino, both being a bit... early? I dunno, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see a hero from a previous Legendary banner pop up to buy time for Kaden.
• Ylgr - Extremely good odds, the sole remaining Book II hero. Until March, they had been releasing one a month, so one could argue she's overdue.
• Quan - Very low odds, he's been skipped so many times already. Same deal as Olwen, I'll probably stop bringing him up after this month.
• Nailah - Decent odds given the other possibilities and limited spaces for blues, but really only makes sense if they have a 16 person banner.
• Brave Lucina - Low odds, I think they'll only bring back one CYL1 hero at a time and things look better for Ike this month due to the lack of greens.
• Brave Hector - Very low odds, Winter Ephraim is practically a lock and they're extremely similar in role. Note that May's banner will have Tiki, another Bold Fighter blue armor, so I think he'd appear after that.
• Brave Veronica - Very good odds, the other CYL2 units have conflicts (Hector and Ephraim) or are too soon (Celica).
• Leanne - Decent odds, unless they wanna rerun older units, but I kinda think they'd only do that when they run out of 5*s to pick from. I think Veronica will take priority, but I'd say on a 16 person banner, she's in.

MY PREDICTED LIST: This is my own guess based on everything above. Note that I've listed 16 heroes, 4 of which are not bolded but are in brackets-- these are heroes I suspect would appear if the banner increases to 16 units. Otherwise, just the standard bolded heroes.

• Legendary Ike
• Legendary Marth
• Legendary Roy
• [Adrift Camilla]
• Legendary Hector
• NY Fjorm
• Brave Ike
• [Uh... Kana?]
• Fjorm
• Winter Ephraim
• Ylgr
• [Nailah]
• New Legendary Hero (Micaiah with a staff, Earth/lightningboltboostthing)
• Winter Eirika
• Brave Veronica
• [Leanne]

WHO'S THAT POKEMON NEW HERO? This hero will be our 16th Legendary, rounding out the 4th wave of Legendaries by element, with only Earth remaining. Barring a repeat on older stat boosts, this only leaves Res and the new lightning bolt thing that Roy has, but given that they pointed out that this effect will have a new feature in April, it stands to reason that this hero will likely have it as well.

• Micaiah: With Yune as her own Dark hero, Micaiah's chances of appearing as a standard Legendary improves. While her own affinity in RD is Dark, there's nothing stopping them from arbitrarily assigning her Earth like with Grima (take your pick of explanations for this). As a fun bonus, Ike and Micaiah could work well together on an Earth based team, which is neat. More importantly, however, Micaiah does have access to staves, making a powerful healing skill like Ashera Staff a possibility. I should also remind everyone that we have seen back-to-back heroes from the same game before (Marth & TIki).
• Celica: Another potential staff user. Aligning her with Earth makes sense given that Mila is associated with Earth (in the agricultural sense, unlike angry Earth Dragons like Medeus). However, it's also possible they could be saving her for Fire and/or a red tome, due to her Ragnarok spell.
• Julia: I'm not sure if Genelogy would get representation from anyone who isn't Sigurd or Seliph, but Julia's certainly a contender. If you consider that the number of potential female Legendaries might be running a bit low owing to how many main characters are male, I would say she actually stands a chance as a staff user. The Earth part is arbitrary, of course, and also assumes they never do something like possessed-by-Naga Julia as a Mythic hero. Who knows.
• Sephiran: Not sure I'd expect any non-OC Legendaries to debut as such, but I guess it's a possibility. Seems to me that Micaiah covers his criteria though, and it'd be shocking for him to get such a position over a main character.
• Alm with a Bow (but it's not red) - yeah whatever

FUTURE ANALYSIS: 

• April: Ike, Marth, Roy, Hector, Fjorm, New Colorless Legendary (Earth)
• May: Hríd, Eirika, Tiki, Lyn, Duma, New Mythic (unknown color, Astra)
• June: Ryoma, Gunnthrá, Yune, Ephraim, Lucina, Robin, New Legendary (unknown color)
• July: Azura, Eir, New Mythic (unknown color)
• June potentially having a whopping 7 L/M heroes is the biggest sign that things might be changing with these banners, and predictions may become much harder, such as when we can't determine a new hero's color-- guaranteeing slots being filled helps us predict the rest of the heroes, after all. Maybe there'll be some datamined stuff, but I'd also expect that we may even get a Feh Channel in the near future, especially since this banner should be launching during Golden Week.
• With all CYL2 heroes having appeared, we're at the point where they will start repeating them. Brave Lyn's appearance also suggests more CYL1 stuff, which is nice if you're a fan of those units (and statistically, you are!)
• Special thanks to @TheTuckingFypo and @Diovani Bressan for collecting some of the info for me and providing some good insight for this month's thread

Previous threads: 

• June 2018 Banner Expectations
• July 2018 Banner Expectations
• August 2018 Banner Expectations
• September 2018 Banner Expectations
• October 2018 Banner Expectations
• November 2018 Banner Expectations
• December 2018 Banner Expectations
• January 2019 Banner Expectations
• February 2019 Banner Expectations
• March 2019 Banner Expectations

Edited April 29, 2019 by Johann

[TheTuckingFypo]

No worries, always glad to help @Johann.

Oh. I didn't realize it jumped to 6 this month O_O... So then it'll jump to 7 Mythics/Legendaries in June. my goodness. Intel. Sys. will either bump the focus fro 12 to 16 units, or they will phase out the other units. I'm not sure which.

P.S: I agree with your predictions, except for NY!Fjorm. Winter Fae needs to show up first.

Edited March 29, 2019 by TheTuckingFypo

[Diovani Bressan]

@Johann I am glad that I was useful! ^^

[Interdimensional Observer]

15 minutes ago, Johann said:

Julia: I'm not sure if Genelogy would get representation from anyone who isn't Sigurd or Seliph, but Julia's certainly a contender. If you consider that the number of potential female Legendaries might be running a bit low owing to how many main characters are male, I would say she actually stands a chance as a staff user. The Earth part is arbitrary, of course, and also assumes they never do something like possessed-by-Naga Julia as a Mythic hero. Who knows.

Well Julia gets a Staff before getting a tome, being able to use both at base in Genealogy. And Deidre in Gen 1 is more notable for Silencing a boss than casting magic.

 

Also, as farfetched as it is given the lack of Jugdral alt love (and severe lack of Thracia love in general) in this game, I could see Leif as Earth. His country is fertile plains, whose Crusader used the Gae Bolg, the Earth Lance. Master Knight Leif using a Staff sounds possible, if remote. (But please don't come now, my Orbs are aching.)

Edited March 29, 2019 by Interdimensional Observer

[Mercakete]

Based on the projected list, I'll probably free summon red (I don't have LRoy or LMarth, and more LIke merges aren't bad), but otherwise skip. Saving orbs is nice. :)

1 hour ago, Johann said:

 

• Winter Fae - Decent odds, rounding out the Halloween banner. However, being a Vengeful Fighter green armor on the same banner as Legendary Hector suggests to me that they might hold off on her til the following month.
• Winter Ephraim - Extremely good odds, rounding out the Halloween banner
• Winter Eirika - Extremely good odds, rounding out the Halloween banner

THIS IS HALLOWEEN. The Nightmare Before Christmas reference practically writes itself. Technically, they're in costume, I guess? Anyway, this typo was fun/cute.

[TheTuckingFypo]

Actually, another thing of note. I only think Brave Veronica will show up if the banner does jump to 16 units. The only reason we have two brave units this month is because we had none in February's banner.

If it doesn't increase to 16 units, I expect the banner to have:

Red: L!Marth, L!Roy, and L!Ike
Blue: Fjorm, Winter Ephraim, and Ylgr
Green: L!Hector, Brave Ike and Winter Fae
Colorless: New Legendary Hero!!, Winter Eirika and Leanne

At this point; I think it's pretty safe to say that Quan, Owain and Green Olwen have been skipped. They can probably be taken off the list in the future. 

If it does jump to 16 units.... I think Nailah, either Adrift Camilla or Tibarn, and Brave Veronica will be on it. For Green, there's like nothing except for Kaden (who I think is still too new), leading me to believe they'll keep it at 12 this month. I mean, it's possible he could show up, since the Binding Blade banner had 2 greens. 

Either way, I'm pretty sure a Feh Channel is bound to show up in the next couple weeks. Last year it showed up around April 9th. If it does, I'm thinking they would tell us if the focus pool will jump to 16 units then.

[Othin]

I don't think we're getting a size increase this soon. Maybe June, but not April. 7 regular summoning pool characters sounds too high, especially with how close they've been coming to running out of recent ones. Brave Lyn suggests they're scraping the bottom of the barrel to fill that space, not looking for more of it.

16 characters without increasing the base 8% rate also just sounds like a mess. Maybe if they did 15 characters and had the new one get double the rate, it'd be more sane? But they might be unwilling to go for that.

If they're changing up legendary banner structure, they might no longer hold them to color balance. Could just rearrange the existing 12 slots, but that seems unlikely. Increasing the total number to something like 13 is also possible.

I'm on board with most of your 12-character banner predictions, although I do hope Leanne gets the spot instead of Veronica. I'm not very optimistic, though.

[Jingle Jangle]

A colorless legendary hero hmmm hard to say. It could be:

• Corrin In his/her Birthright promotion wielding a staff.
• Julia: Fe4 never had a leg hero, there is always a first.

Really clueless for possible ideas for this one. 

[Anacybele]

Yune being the new Mythic doesn't automatically confirm Micaiah at all. Also, if it's more Tellius, it could just as easily be flying healer Elincia in that regard. She'd be a better pick anyway, due to being a better character and having a rarer movement/weapon combo type.

EDIT: Oh yeah, you put Sephiran as a contender and not Elincia? That doesn't even make sense.

Edited March 29, 2019 by Anacybele

[Hilda]

I really doubt the May mythic will be colorless due to duma. We havent had an instance where 2 mythics of the same color have been run. And since Red is sporting 2 strong red legendarys (one with Distant counter) and we got a green Mythic, i think it will be a blue one.

[TheTuckingFypo]

3 minutes ago, Hilda said:

I really doubt the May mythic will be colorless due to duma. We havent had an instance where 2 mythics of the same color have been run. And since Red is sporting 2 strong red legendarys (one with Distant counter) and we got a green Mythic, i think it will be a blue one.

Yeah. I actually think it'll be Blue. We just got a green one, red has too many banner options and colourless has 2 already.

Edited March 29, 2019 by TheTuckingFypo

[Othin]

38 minutes ago, TheTuckingFypo said:

Yeah. I actually think it'll be Blue. We just got a green one, red has too many banner options and colourless has 2 already.

I'm also on board with blue. Mila is the most obvious Astra hero right now, and it'd fit her nicely. Also, it's now the color that's gone the longest without an elemental hero.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I'm definitely thinking it's gonna be either Micaiah or Leif for April's Legendary. They could both be staff units and they could both be Earth/Res.

[Anacybele]

I still think Elincia should be the next Tellius legendary and not Micaiah. And not so much because I don't like Micaiah either, but because she'd be a boring infantry healer while Elincia would be a flying healer and the only flying healers we have so far are seasonal. We need this first.

Though of course, IS makes a lot of bad decisions, so...I'm not really expecting this.

[Othin]

17 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

I still think Elincia should be the next Tellius legendary and not Micaiah. And not so much because I don't like Micaiah either, but because she'd be a boring infantry healer while Elincia would be a flying healer and the only flying healers we have so far are seasonal. We need this first.

Though of course, IS makes a lot of bad decisions, so...I'm not really expecting this.

Healer Elincia would be nice, but she wouldn't fit the expected Earth element for the upcoming one.

Edited March 30, 2019 by Othin

[Anacybele]

3 minutes ago, Othin said:

Healer Elincia would be nice, but she wouldn't fit the expected Earth element for the upcoming one.

No, but Micaiah doesn't fit Earth either, really. Neither of them do. I'd expect them to be Wind or Water. But I didn't think Ryoma would be Water or that Marth would be Fire either.

Legendary or not though, I just really really want to see flying healer Elincia at some point. This is my biggest wish now that we got a seasonal Ike.

Edited March 30, 2019 by Anacybele

[daisy jane]

Oh. they just make Micaiah fly. 
it's not like Azura Flies. 

[Othin]

1 minute ago, Anacybele said:

No, but Micaiah doesn't fit Earth either, really. Neither of them do. I'd expect them to be Wind or Water. But I didn't think Ryoma would be Water or that Marth would be Fire either.

I think those all make sense. Ryoma is Water because there's a whole water thing with Fates dragons, so everyone from the royal families has some level of water association. Marth is Fire because he uses the Fire Emblem, I guess? Fits him better than any other element, I'd say.

Micaiah makes sense as Earth because she has a Dark affinity and is associated with a "dark god". Between Grima and Tiki, Earth seems to be the original element most associated with both darkness and godly powers. And the third Earth hero so far is Vanguard Ike, who promoted by being blessed by Yune's power. I think any other element for a legendary Micaiah would be very strange.

I'm on board with Elincia as Wind, though. Funny enough, we still don't have a flying Wind legendary.

[Interdimensional Observer]

4 minutes ago, Othin said:

Healer Elincia would be nice, but she wouldn't fit the expected Earth element for the upcoming one.

True. She flies, which is very unearthly. And her Affinity is Heaven, the opposite of Earth in gameplay.

 

2 minutes ago, daisy jane said:

Oh. they just make Micaiah fly. 
it's not like Azura Flies. 

Azura's Heart Seal class in Fates was Pegasus Knight.

As for flying Micaiah, have her use a Kinshi, with bird Yune's colors.

 

2 minutes ago, Othin said:

Between Grima and Tiki, Earth seems to be the original element most associated with both darkness and godly powers.

And in FE lore, Medeus and Loptyr began as Earth Dragons before becoming Shadow Dragons.

 

And I'm just going to restate my support for Master Knight Leif. Having played FE4 now, I came to love just how powerful he was once promoted (not hard with the inherited Followup Ring, his mother's Light Brand, and buying the Paragon Band and later Tornado). Despite low Magic, between Pursuit, Adept, and Critical, combined with low enemy Res, he had few issues massacring whole squads of enemies. Excellent growths of 50+ in all non-Mag/Res stats are further awesomeness, combined with high caps. Really, Leif is divine in FE4 despite lacking a Holy Weapon. And a nice character too.

[Anacybele]

11 minutes ago, daisy jane said:

Oh. they just make Micaiah fly. 
it's not like Azura Flies. 

Why make Micaiah a flying healer when Elincia, a canon one, is right there? That just makes zero sense.

7 minutes ago, Othin said:

I think those all make sense. Ryoma is Water because there's a whole water thing with Fates dragons, so everyone from the royal families has some level of water association. Marth is Fire because he uses the Fire Emblem, I guess? Fits him better than any other element, I'd say.

Micaiah makes sense as Earth because she has a Dark affinity and is associated with a "dark god". Between Grima and Tiki, Earth seems to be the original element most associated with both darkness and godly powers. And the third Earth hero so far is Vanguard Ike, who promoted by being blessed by Yune's power. I think any other element for a legendary Micaiah would be very strange.

I'm on board with Elincia as Wind, though. Funny enough, we still don't have a flying Wind legendary.

Ryoma doesn't fit Water at all to me. He seems more like a Fire or Earth guy to me. Marth does not fit Fire at all to me either, he seems more like Water. That's just how I feel.

Micaiah fits Earth because she's Dark? What? What kind of logic is that?

[daisy jane]

1 minute ago, Anacybele said:

Why make Micaiah a flying healer when Elincia, a canon one, is right there? That just makes zero sense.

because they can? like it's not a big deal. they both can fly. like is it Canon that Lyn rides a horse + shoots a bow, no but they did it. if the game wants to stick micaiah on a bird, they'll stick her on a bird.  Its not a big deal. I love Elincia so I would be more than happy to have a flying healing alt, but it doesn't matter if Micaiah gets one too. that's another flying healing alt. which is aces in my book. 

[Othin]

1 minute ago, daisy jane said:

because they can? like it's not a big deal. they both can fly. like is it Canon that Lyn rides a horse + shoots a bow, no but they did it. if the game wants to stick micaiah on a bird, they'll stick her on a bird.  Its not a big deal. I love Elincia so I would be more than happy to have a flying healing alt, but it doesn't matter if Micaiah gets one too. that's another flying healing alt. which is aces in my book. 

Hmm. Now that you mention it - we've had three colorless elemental heroes so far (Robin, Eir, and Duma), and two of them are flying. So I kind of hope the next one isn't flying, personally.

[Anacybele]

2 minutes ago, daisy jane said:

because they can? like it's not a big deal. they both can fly. like is it Canon that Lyn rides a horse + shoots a bow, no but they did it. if the game wants to stick micaiah on a bird, they'll stick her on a bird.  Its not a big deal. I love Elincia so I would be more than happy to have a flying healing alt, but it doesn't matter if Micaiah gets one too. that's another flying healing alt. which is aces in my book. 

Lyn's tribe could ride though, and apparently her father did as well. Micaiah has no connections to Pegasi/wyverns/Kinshi or anyone that rides them. Elincia does.

[daisy jane]

4 minutes ago, Othin said:

Hmm. Now that you mention it - we've had three colorless elemental heroes so far (Robin, Eir, and Duma), and two of them are flying. So I kind of hope the next one isn't flying, personally.

I'm team flier, so for my orbs - i hope not but if i need to, we're good. 

[omegaxis1]

31 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

Why make Micaiah a flying healer when Elincia, a canon one, is right there? That just makes zero sense.

Same logic as making Mia be the very first flying healer in Heroes. Canon does not matter.