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June 2019 Legendary Banner Expectations


Johann
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NEXT MONTH'S THREAD:

Please use the most recent thread if you intend to make posts about future banners. Feel free to use this thread for analysis of trends, etc.

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May was a crap banner for me, so moving on!

LEGENDARIES/MYTHICS: The following are confirmed based on the notifications:

  • Legendary Ryoma
  • Legendary Ephraim
  • Legendary Lucina
  • Gunnthra
  • Yune
  • Legendary Robin
  • New Legendary Hero (unknown color and type)

SEASONALS: We're still a bit backed up with reds, but we should be moving into the Hot Springs heroes.

  • NY Hrid - Extremely high odds, last unit from the NY banner.
  • HS Elise - Extremely low odds, preceded by Hrid.
  • HS Ryoma - Good odds, next blue in line. It's basically between him and Hinoka for the 3rd seasonal slot.
  • HS Hinoka - Fairly good odds, next green in line. It's basically between her and Ryoma for the 3rd seasonal slot. I might say she has a slightly better chance since there are two greens coming in from the Valentine's banner.
  • HS Sakura - Very good odds, next colorless in line, and colorless has few possibilities from the regular pool.

REGULAR 5★ HEROES: Sticking to the assumption that it's staying 12 for at least May, red is backed up pretty bad.

  • Adrift Camilla - Very low odds, rounding out the Adrift banner, but there probably won't be room. Unless they bump up the number of units on the banner overall, not much room to get to her in.
  • Owain - Very low odds., see Camilla. If there's any room, I think it'd between him and Camilla.
  • Tibarn - Extremely low odds, Camilla and Owain should be appearing before him. He might take a while to show.
  • Other Reds down the road - Keaton, Idunn, Lethe, etc will probably be a long time coming unless they start skipping people or altering the way they do these banners.
  • Brave Roy - Extremely low odds. No room, and they don't seem to want to put him in these banners.
  • Brave Celica - Extremely low odds. No room, and my impression is that they're going to give her the Roy treatment and never run her again.
  • Kaden - Low odds. Next green in line. Very curious that he was skipped over for both Sue and Lugh though.
  • Ranulf - Low odds, but possible if they're straight up skipping Kaden again. Not a lot of room in green though since we have Gunnthra and Yune already appearing.
  • Brave Ike - Decent odds, assuming they really intend to keep bringing back CYL1 units. Note that him and Brave Ephraim are the only possible axe users for a while, meaning they may have a chance to get some weapon diversity.
  • Brave Ephraim - Decent odds. No other possible green armors lined up until Greil, which might be worth noting if you consider movement type diversity to be something they factor when making these banners.
  • Ylgr - Good odds, the sole remaining Book II hero. Yet, her being skipped in May is odd since she didn't have a banner appearance as a conflict. edit: Given her current appearance on the TT banner, I don't think she'll appear. Some speculate that this suggests she'll be skipped over entirely from these banners, barring a random placement down the road, which might be the case.
  • Selkie - Good odds, she's the next blue in line. We actually don't have any other non-seasonal blues waiting to debut until Berkut.
  • Brave Lucina - Low odds, I'd expect Selkie first, unless they intend to save her to extend the shallow blue pool.
  • Brave Veronica - Good odds, there's a limited amount of colorless to pick from.
  • Caineghis - Low odds, if only because it might be too soon. It's basically between him and Veronica since there aren't any colorless until we get to the recent Corrin and Tiki.

MY PREDICTED LIST: This is my own guess based on everything above.

  • Legendary Ryoma
  • NY Hrid
  • New Legendary Hero - Seliph (sword infantry, Wind/Pair Up)
  • Gunnthra
  • Yune
  • HS Hinoka
  • Legendary Ephraim
  • Legendary Lucina
  • Selkie
  • Legendary Robin
  • HS Sakura
  • Brave Veronica

WHO'S THAT POKEMON NEW HERO? Can be any color and element, though there's a very strong chance it's red given that we only have one red legendary returning. As per usual when it's red, there are countless possibilities. Based on the pattern of seasons, I suspect that it'll be a Wind hero.

  • Seliph: Genealogy/Thracia have had no representation thus far, so it seems to me that we're overdue for someone. I'm not sure there's any particular element associated with Seliph beyond Light, but that hardly matters. I might just be expecting him at this point simply because @Othin threw the idea out there.
  • Leif: Similar to Seliph, but seems lower profile than him. To be fair, though, I haven't played Thracia and I know little about Leif.
  • Sigurd: A lot of the same logic for Seliph applies to Sigurd, though if it's Wind, I don't think he'd be it, since we already have a Wind sword cavalry. Assuming Eliwood would be Fire sword cav, I guess Sigurd would be round out that move/weapon type for Earth (which we just got). Of course, there's no rule that says we can't get multiple heroes of the same element, weapon, and movement type (see Roy and Marth), but I think it's something they'll generally avoid doing when possible.
  • Celica: Since Alm is in, Celica will inevitably show up as well. I do anticipate that they would make her Earth and red so she'd pair well with Alm, and I wouldn't rule out giving her the missing Earth/Res. So, it's possible, but seems unlikely to me for this month since we just got Alm/Earth.
  • Eliwood: Rounding out the trio, but who knows when. Surely he'll be a Fire hero, so it's possible we'll see him this soon.
  • XANDER: Seems inevitable that he'll show up someday, but I could see him being an axe user, which we have few of among Legendaries, so probably not this time.
  • Chrom: If it's red + Wind, Chrom could have synergy on a team with Lucina, though again there's part of me that suspects they might have alternate weapon ideas for Chrom
  • Others: While characters like Lilina and Elincia are possible red units, I'd suspect that they would have them using alternate weapons to keep from there being too many reds. Those two are also possible healers, though, and colorless is the next most likely color after red.

FUTURE ANALYSIS:

  • July: Marth, Fjorm, Azura, Hector, Lyn, Eir, Alm, New Mythic (unknown color but probably red)
  • August: Ike, Roy, Naga, Tiki, Duma, New Legendary (unknown color but probably green)
  • September: Eirika, Hrid, New Mythic (unknown color)
  • Again, special thanks to @Othin for helping contribute. I was especially busy this past week and her input saved me a lot of time, while also providing some interesting predictions of her own.
  • June brings us to 7 L/Ms, and July to 8. While I did anticipate the idea of them increasing the total number of heroes in April, I suspect that it could potentially happen this summer.
  • This is the 13th thread I've done on these banners, we've got over a year's worth of threads going. Neat!

Previous threads:

Edited by Johann
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My guesses are:

  • Micaiah
  • Corrin
  • Celica
  • Xander
  • Chrom
  • Seliph
  • Leif
  • Eliwood

I'm actually willing to bet that the next one is either Eliwood or Seliph.

Frankly, I'm hoping for legendary Seliph since FE4 needs someone. Along with FE5.

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Would they release three Wind legendaries at the same time?  My gut says that we're looking at the Earth Res hero this time. . .in which case, probably Leif.

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Honestly, I think they might skip Adrift Camilla completely. If they wanted to put her on one of these banners, March was the perfect opportunity (both Corrins showed up on February's banner) but they went with BCelica instead. At the end of the day, they're going to have to start skipping over characters because as more mythics and legendaries get added, these banners are getting more and more backed up...and honestly, Camilla has popularity going for her but that's about it. She's nothing amazing as a unit and doesn't have much useful fodder. I think that if our new legendary isn't red, then Idunn is going to take the last slot next to Hrid and Ryoma (over Tibarn because they probably don't want all 3 reds to be fliers).

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Surprised to see no mention of Chrom because he seems like an easy guess for a pair up Legendary. He would probably be wind (since I am predicting Xander to be the water pair up legendary) to match his daughter's element. We also don't have his unsealed Falchion yet in the game even though I would prefer him wielding a lance instead.

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Darn. This has a lot of green units I want (Kaden, and Gunnthra, though I don't have HS Hinoka either. I don't have Yune either but she's very low priority for me.), but I want to save my orbs. I guess I'll just have to wait and see... Maybe I'll pull a little if Kaden's on the banner (since this would probably be the most likely time to get him), and hopefully miss Yune.

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10 minutes ago, eclipse said:

Would they release three Wind legendaries at the same time?  My gut says that we're looking at the Earth Res hero this time. . .in which case, probably Leif.

At the rate they're increasing Legendaries per banner, it's inevitable. A case for/against each element is looking like this:

  • Water: The current primary (month-long) element, thus far we've never had the primary element extend for two months. Unless break that trend (which would have major effects on competitive mode scoring), Water is out.
  • Earth: Our last Legendary was Earth, so far we've never had back-to-back elements, even post-Mythic launch. The shortest time between the same element has been 2 months, but only after a "wave" of 4 Legendaries of each element had already been added.
  • Wind: Going by the anticipated season chart, Wind will be the next primary element, which would align with the hero. The earliest we can verify that (barring datamines) would be June 11th, when the Water/Fire season starts and the Raiding Party screen will show the following week's elements.
  • Fire: Second most likely element as it has fewer conflicts than Water or Earth, but hurt by the chance that they seem to be promoting new Legendaries having the Pair Up ability. Adding to the fact that Roy has already had two banners, it's arguable that they'd view another Fire legendary with Pair Up as being less desirable for anyone who had luck getting Roy.

For some extra context, the season list should go like this:

  • May 28: Water/Wind (current)
  • June 4: Water/Earth (observable in the Raiding Party screen)
  • June 11: Water/Fire
  • June 18: Wind/???

If anyone has spotted some datamined season lists on Reddit or whatever, please feel free to post it since it can give us excellent insight into what the element of the next hero will be.

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i truthfully wonder if they forgot that they didn't demote Kaden . i don't see why he got skipped. 

i am really starting to hate these banners (like with a fire of 1000 burning suns hate). no matter how much i save, i end up getting burned huge on these stupid things. but Grima is here and she'll have an amazing pool for me. 

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Somehow I think the next pair up will be either blue or green. Because colors are also something which are not to be ignored in Allegiance battle and so far we got Red and Colorless covered. Of course they also could just delay the remaining colors or just not care at all. Just a hunch.

I know there has been some talk about Camilla with Bölverk, but it would be also possible to just make a Green Cavalry Xander with Bölverk. I think its been a long time since we got a true green Axe Cavalry. So far the game has 5 I think? While Xander may be a Paladin by default they still could go this way if they find him so important..

As much as I want Seliph and Leif, I don't believe it until I see it. But they actually could make a blue Leif with a Lance. At least it would make sense regarding his family. And I want too take a look at all the secondary weapons for the remaining sword lords. After Legendary Alm it should be possible. Too much red with the remaining possibilities, you know what I mean?

Edited by Stroud
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Looks like green and blue are poor colors for me. Since I've got the legendaries/mythics and even Hinoka, who I assume will appear instead of Ryoma to avoid having two Ryomas on the banner. Blue's loaded with legendaries I've got. Colorless may be good despite Grima. But in general it looks like if my orbs are cutting loose it'd be on the New Heroes banner. We're getting more reruns of Legendaries/mythics this month AND next month? Ugh.

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20 minutes ago, MrSmokestack said:

What are the chances of the colorless unit in July's Legendary banner being Fallen Tiki? I just hope it's not Corrin. She's just Atk Spd Solo fodder.

It really depends on whether they put Veronica or Caineghis on the June banner. If Caineghis is in June, then it's a 50/50 shot between Tiki and Corrin in July. If it's Veronica in June (or if there is no non-limited colorless in June), then Caineghis is far more likely to appear in July than either Tiki or Corrin, considering he's armed to the teeth with premium skills (quite literally so) and is unlikely to be skipped.

Edited by Ice Dragon
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As long as NY!Hrid is in this banner I'm good. I had saved up hundreds of orbs for him (just in case), but he wasn't on this one (which meant I could splurge on some other banners!). Will start saving again tho!

I'm hoping if it's a Red, wind Legendary Hero that it's maybe Chrom! It would go well with Lucina being a Wind Hero. And round out Awakening finally. Also good with Eliwood finally appearing. 

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2 hours ago, Kiran_ said:

I'm hoping if it's a Red, wind Legendary Hero that it's maybe Chrom! It would go well with Lucina being a Wind Hero. And round out Awakening finally. Also good with Eliwood finally appearing. 

How did I forget Chrom? I'll go add him in there

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It wouldn't surprise me at all if they skipped A!Camilla and Kaden. Neither are bad units by any means, but they're both very weak in terms of fodder. And red is such a clusterfuck due to the sheer number of reds that already exist. They are and will remain really behind schedule on reds unless they make a couple of skips.

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17 hours ago, Sentinel07 said:

For the love of god IS, give us a Jugdral hero.

Seriously, that's 16 Legendary Heroes and 4 Mythic Heroes, and not a single one from Genealogy or Thracia. It's freaking ridiculous.

Legendary Arvis, please.

Or Marty

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Oh, I thought they were done with Legendary Heroes. Well, thank goodness if they're not. I'm hoping for Eliwood, Seliph, or Leif. With Eliwood scoring high on the CYL I'm hoping they'll give him to us soon. Micaiah is also a contender. If this is a brand new batch of Legandary Heroes then these are some definite possibilities:

  • Eliwood (Fire or Earth)
  • Micaiah (Fire?)
  • Celica (Fire)
  • Chrom (Water?)
  • Corrin (Male since Robin female already made it in) (Water)
  • Seliph (Water?)
  • Leif (Fire or Earth?)
  • Xander (Fire)
  • Sigurd (Water or Earth?)
  • Katarina (?)

Less likely, but still possible:

  • Camilla
  • Leo
  • Takumi
  • Quan
  • Eldigan
  • Kris (No version in the game yet even)
  • Summoner
  • Veronica (Whenever her story arc is finished we'll likely get her)
  • Lilina
  • Nanna
  • Joshua
  • Ashera's Three Heroes (Super farfetched)

It'd be interesting if we could see a lot of heroes who're significant to the story of a game somewhat, but are long dead. Such as Anri, Ashera's three heroes, 12 Crusaders, Roland, etc.

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2 minutes ago, SSbardock84 said:

Oh, I thought they were done with Legendary Heroes. Well, thank goodness if they're not. I'm hoping for Eliwood, Seliph, or Leif. With Eliwood scoring high on the CYL I'm hoping they'll give him to us soon. Micaiah is also a contender. If this is a brand new batch of Legandary Heroes then these are some definite possibilities:

  • Eliwood (Fire or Earth)
  • Micaiah (Fire?)
  • Celica (Fire)
  • Chrom (Water?)
  • Corrin (Male since Robin female already made it in) (Water)
  • Seliph (Water?)
  • Leif (Fire or Earth?)
  • Xander (Fire)
  • Sigurd (Water or Earth?)
  • Katarina (?)

Less likely, but still possible:

  • Camilla
  • Leo
  • Takumi
  • Quan
  • Eldigan
  • Kris (No version in the game yet even)
  • Summoner
  • Veronica (Whenever her story arc is finished we'll likely get her)
  • Lilina
  • Nanna
  • Joshua
  • Ashera's Three Heroes (Super farfetched)

It'd be interesting if we could see a lot of heroes who're significant to the story of a game somewhat, but are long dead. Such as Anri, Ashera's three heroes, 12 Crusaders, Roland, etc.

We still haven't finished filling out the initial grids: we're missing Earth/Res, Fire/Spd, Water/Pair, and Wind/Pair.

But there will probably be more even after those. The Three Houses lords, for one thing.

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16 minutes ago, SSbardock84 said:

Oh, I thought they were done with Legendary Heroes. Well, thank goodness if they're not. I'm hoping for Eliwood, Seliph, or Leif. With Eliwood scoring high on the CYL I'm hoping they'll give him to us soon. Micaiah is also a contender. If this is a brand new batch of Legandary Heroes then these are some definite possibilities:

  • Eliwood (Fire or Earth)
  • Micaiah (Fire?)
  • Celica (Fire)
  • Chrom (Water?)
  • Corrin (Male since Robin female already made it in) (Water)
  • Seliph (Water?)
  • Leif (Fire or Earth?)
  • Xander (Fire)
  • Sigurd (Water or Earth?)
  • Katarina (?)

Less likely, but still possible:

  • Camilla
  • Leo
  • Takumi
  • Quan
  • Eldigan
  • Kris (No version in the game yet even)
  • Summoner
  • Veronica (Whenever her story arc is finished we'll likely get her)
  • Lilina
  • Nanna
  • Joshua
  • Ashera's Three Heroes (Super farfetched)

It'd be interesting if we could see a lot of heroes who're significant to the story of a game somewhat, but are long dead. Such as Anri, Ashera's three heroes, 12 Crusaders, Roland, etc.

You forgot Elincia (why the hell do people keep forgetting her when she's so important?). And the summoner? I highly doubt that'll ever be anything more than just the sprite appearing in Tap Battle and stuff.

Edited by Anacybele
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2 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

You forgot Elincia (why the hell do people keep forgetting her when she's so important?). And the summoner? I highly doubt that'll ever be anything more than just the sprite appearing in Tap Battle and stuff.

I want to say cause she isn't the main protag per se, but given how we have Ryoma, Azura, and Tiki as Legendary Heroes, Elincia legit isn't that farfetched given how she's basically the main drive in the plot of Path of Radiance.

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4 minutes ago, omegaxis1 said:

I want to say cause she isn't the main protag per se, but given how we have Ryoma, Azura, and Tiki as Legendary Heroes, Elincia legit isn't that farfetched given how she's basically the main drive in the plot of Path of Radiance.

That's the point, yeah. If Ryoma and Tiki could get legendaries and you list characters like the other Fates royals, Lilina, Nanna, Kris, etc., Elincia absolutely must be there too. Even IS considers her one of the most important non-lords in the series due to the fact that they gave her DLC in Awakening. In fact, I think she was the ONLY non-lord to get it and not even all lords actually got this (Sigurd didn't).

Elincia isn't just the lead female in PoR, she also had a big role in RD and went on to create a golden age in Crimea, pretty much making her a legendary queen.

Elincia: Legendary Queen in Heroes makes perfect sense. Could also make her title Golden Queen.

Edited by Anacybele
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