On Student's Starting Skill Levels (from combat forecast windows)

[LSM]

I know we are close to release, and as such this will probably all be revealed soon anyways, but I've been looking into the possible initial skill ranks of students.

To begin with, we know some via screen shot. Dimitri is a D+ Lances, D Riding/Authority, and E+ Swords. Dedue is a D+ Axes, D Armour, and E+ Lances/Brawling. And from the post-E3 demo'd footage and information that's been speculated about on Seminars and known Strengths and Weaknesses, plus math and a lot of help from others, I'm confident that the Black Eagles looks like this:

(With the caveat that Hubert might be a D in Bows, as the math worked out positively for both that and E+ depending on if he had attended two or none of the Seminars with Hanneman.)

After this, I started scouring all the information we have, specifically looking at the Combat Forecasts of characters as they show the Abilities characters have active. As a character's Skill Levels increase, they unlock unique Abilities as well as "Prowesses" in a Weapon, which can then be equipped (up to five). The Prowesses are important, as they grow to higher levels as the Skills gain experience. Therefore, we can get a feel for what a character is proficient with, and what they may have had a head start with. Conversely, a character with an E rank in a Weapon Skill does not yet have a Prowess in that weapon to equip, so the absence of a Prowess can also be useful information. (Sadly, Movement Skills don't have Prowesses.)

First of all, let us look at the Combat Forecasts of the Black Eagles, as they are the house that I am confident that we can say we know the beginning level of:

A number of these are taken from the E3 footage, with Edelgard and Ferdinand from the Japanese website videos. First, one of the big things to notice is the arrangement of Abilities. They are always placed, left to right:

• Personal (1) // Class (0-3) // Skill (0-5)

For example, Ferdinand has his Personal Ability, then no Class Abilities, then three Skill Abilities. Meanwhile, Hubert and Dorothea have Fire as a Class Ability, Linhardt Move Again, etc.

On the face of it, the most important thing is that they match. Bernadetta is predicted to start with D Bows and E+ Lances, and at level 15 she has Prowesses of Bows 3 and Lances 2, along with Authority 1. (I've noticed that all characters end up with some Authority, due to the use of Battalions, making it somewhat difficult to say if someone starts with Authority.) Note how Authority 1 is the fourth Class Ability, and not grouped with Lances and Bows. I believe this is due to the fact that as characters learn skills, they are added to the right. Meanwhile, the skills that a character starts with are going to be the leftmost. While it appears that these can be freely moved around, the consistency of the information suggests that the players have only rarely done this.

Now another big point: look at Hubert. His Prowesses are, left to right, Bows 1, Reason 3, Authority 2. This is important, as it appears that the initial Prowesses are arranged in consistent order:

• Swords >> Lances >> Axes >> Bows >> Brawling >> Reason >> Faith >> Authority

I suppose one additional note might be that the placement of Byleth's Brawling 1 suggests that with your Byleth you may choose at least one Skill to start above an E (besides their natural Swords and Authority). There's not too much more to say about these Eagles, but they have helped provide a solid framework to go forward and look at the other houses.

Most of these are from the E3 footage and the post-E3 demo's.

• Byleth: the Skill Ability inbetween Swords and Authority is interesting, and I've assumed that it's one of the odd cases where a Prowess has been switched out, possibly Brawling. That Byleth is also a D in Lances so likely has Lances 1 but has chosen not to equip it, and she has Faith 1 in the fifth slot, so learned later. (In other footage, we've seen that Byleth has a Hidden Talent in Faith. I'm interested in whether this will be true for all Byleths, or if you can choose that.)
• Dimitri: Swords 1, Lances 2, Authority 1 from the Japanese website. Matches with what we know about his starting E+, D+, E+ in those respective skills. (In the post-E3 demo his five Skill Abilities are: ???, Lances 4, Authority 3, ???, ???. One of the other times where it appears someone has gained enough Skills to start going to the effort of customising the Abilities. There, they appear to have switched out Swords 1 for the first ???.)
• Dedue: these match with his initial levels, having then trained his Axes to get it up to Prowess 3.
• Felix: we know Felix's default Goals are Swords and Brawling. Due to the placement of Bows 1, it therefore follows that he likely starts with D Swords, E+ Bows, and E+ Brawling.
• Mercedes: we know she starts with E's in everything but Reason and Faith. So while she has Bows 1 here, note that it's in the "wrong" place for a starting level, which is consistent. Likely D Faith, E+ Reason.
• Ashe: Axes 2 and Bows 2 match his Strengths. In other footage he's had Axes 1 and Bows 3, so safe bet that he's D in Bows and E+ in Axes.
• Annette: Faith has come later. The placement of Axes strongly suggests it's been there from the start. The bigger question is the Authority - it's higher than her fellows from the same footage, but she seems to have a Strength in it which could account for that. On the other hand, it is left of that Rally (which might come from levelling Reason). So D Reason, E+ Axes, and a chance of E+ Authority.
• Sylvain: in the Direct we saw him sparring with Ferdinand where he had Lances 1 and Axes 1, so it's safe to say those are his starting levels. The question is which one is the higher. In other footage he has Lances 3, Axes 2, which I might take to mean he's D Lances and E+ Axes. I know Blue Lions are the "Lance house", but I can't help but wonder if it's not reversed. In that footage (as above) he's been trained to be a Cavalier, so it's possible they switched his Goals to Lances && Riding to pursue that, neglecting his Axes.
• Ingrid: in other screenshots she's been shown at level 2 to have D Swords, D Lances, E+ Faith, but I think she had been through a week's lectures as well as a Seminar with Manuela. So while I suspect she has a Strength in Faith, I'm confident her initial Weapon Skill levels are D Lances, E+ Swords.

 

These are mostly from Famitsu and Japanese website.

• Byleth: this image (from them being healed, which is why it's up-side down) shows Swords 3, Brawling 1, Authority 2. At this point, I'm not sure I've seen a Byleth without Brawling... Maybe that's actually fixed? (If anyone has spotted one that's different, please let me know.)
• Claude: Swords 1, Bows 2, Authority 3, which would match a D/D+ Bows, D/D+ Authority, E+ Swords that many speculate he'll have to match Edelgard and Dimitri. In the footage this is taken from he's a Lord class and level 17. The lack of Swords 2 at that point means he's been using his Bows and Authority to attack. Which is then odd that he's still only Bows 2, so I think he'll be more like Edelgard and start with a D, rather than Dimitri's D+. (The Faith makes me wonder if it's a Strength for him.)
• Hilda: we've seen her in tons of footage as a Brigand, so I'd lean towards her starting with D Axes and E+ Lances. But nothing concrete on which is higher.
• Lorenz: much to my surprise, considering how he's been presented as the definitive Cavalier of the Golden Deer, he definitely starts with some Reason. Above he's level 12, in other screenshots a few levels lower he has Lances 2, Reason 1, Authority 1. The question is whether he's just D Lances and E+ Reason, or if he's like the Black Eagles's Ferdinand, potentially starting with D Lances, D Riding, E+ Reason, E+ Authority.
• Raphael: likely D Brawling and E+ Axes. The Swords 1 is out of place to be a beginning level.
• Lysithea: no combat forecasts to work off of. We have seen her with Reason equipped. And she's been shown off as a Priestess/Bishop a lot, so maybe Faith as well. We now have a Japanese add which shows a combat forecast. Un-excitingly, she appears to be an expected D Reason, E+ Faith.
• Ignatz: likely D Bows and E+ Swords. In other footage as an Archer he has Swords 3, Bows 3, Authority 1, ???, ???. The Authority before the ???'s makes it possible for it to be an E+, but as I said everyone seems to end up with an Authority Prowess, making it hard to call as a staring level.
• Marianne: surprising to me she definitely starts with E+ Swords along with her D Faith. We've seen that she's neutral in Authority (from comparisons with Annette), so It's doubtful that's not an E to begin with.
• Leonie: Lances and Bows are her likely specialities. Lances are likely the D, as she's an Archer here and still has lower Bows. (Elsewhere we've seen her as a Cavalier.) I'll note that she's gone HAM on training up that Swords rank, achieving Prowess 5 by roughly level 10! I guess Byleth has been doing a lot of tutoring?

Anyway, that's all the students. I hope this has been informative to anyone interested on the topic. If you have any observations that I've missed, please do share!

 

Edited July 10, 2019 by LSM

[Shadeflare123]

Wow, this is a lot. Thank you so much!

[throwaway]

This is really helpful, thank you! I've been having trouble figuring out who to make into what class so this will be really helpful

Claude having Faith may be a result of starting in the Noble class, which can do a little magic. Also Faith is supposed to come before authority, but Claude's Faith skill is the last on his list. Maybe he can't access Faith magic as a Lord?

Lorenz having some Reason isn't too surprising: in Mercedes' introduction video, she mentions meeting him in the mage academy before the officer's academy. Makes me wonder if he's any good at magic

[timon]

The order is very puzzling to me, it seems to have a logic but there are a lot of random ones as well (eg. Linhardt's spear is after reason and faith, Byleth's faith is after authority but there's a lot more). Also interesting that some levels come after skills, I guess those could be combat arts related to the weapon?

[Yexin]

that E+ in swords for Dorothea lets me hope for some mage fighter-like combination

[SpiceMan]

1 hour ago, timon said:

(eg. Linhardt's spear is after reason and faith, Byleth's faith is after authority but there's a lot more).

LSM covered that in the article. It's because the character didn't start of with that skill unlike the others, and has equipped it later when they receive it. Linhardt only starts with Reason and Faith, then afterwards he learnt authority and then Lances. Same with Byleth and all the other examples.

They're a clever monkey. I wouldn't have figured that out on my own for sure.

Edited July 8, 2019 by SpiceMan

[BastienSoul]

Maybe Faith could be Claude's Hidden Talent? There isn't anything concrete suggesting this, but it would mirror Edelgard having one in Reason and Dimitri not having one would explain why he seems to start with higher Skill ranks.

[Siskan]

Thank you LSM, I appreciate this as well as your previous contributions.

Leonie has also been seen used as example of the brigand class on the official site. Maybe a hidden axe talent? Felix on the other hand was pictured as a cavalier, so maybe lances in his case. I think the rest of the classes shown have been pictured with characters with corresponding strengths in weapons associated with them. Though I didn't double check all of them.

Edit: Actually it seems we already know Felix doesn't have a strength in or hidden talent for lances, but we haven't seen whether he's good at riding. If he is that could be the reason. If not, I guess these examples don't have much meaning and it might not mean anything for Leonie either. Swords are at least associated with the cavalier class, but not required.

Edited July 8, 2019 by Siskan

[Cysx]

20 hours ago, LSM said:

Dimitri: Swords 1, Lances 2, Authority 1 from the Japanese website. Matches with what we know about his starting E+, D+, E+ in those respective skills. (In the post-E3 demo his five Skill Abilities are: ???, Lances 4, Authority 3, ???, ???. One of the other times where it appears someone has gained enough Skills to start going to the effort of customising the Abilities. There, they appear to have switched out Swords 1 for the first ???.)

Hmmmm yes, that makes more sense that way, I had forgotten that Dimitri should have sword 1. I guess the leftmost ??? is most likely not a class skill, then.

20 hours ago, LSM said:

Claude: Swords 1, Bows 2, Authority 3, which would match a D/D+ Bows, D/D+ Authority, E+ Swords that many speculate he'll have to match Edelgard and Dimitri. In the footage this is taken from he's a Lord class and level 17. The lack of Swords 2 at that point means he's been using his Bows and Authority to attack. Which is then odd that he's still only Bows 2, so I think he'll be more like Edelgard and start with a D, rather than Dimitri's D+. (The Faith makes me wonder if it's a Strength for him.)

Do we have an example of a strength starting <E+ rank yet? Otherwise, since the faith is at the right of close counter, I don't know about that.

20 hours ago, LSM said:

Lorenz: much to my surprise, considering how he's been presented as the definitive Cavalier of the Golden Deer, he definitely starts with some Reason.

Others have brought it up in other places but, he attended the same magic school as Mercedes and Annette, so that makes sense with his background at least. I'd also assume he does have a strength in authority considering his Personal skill, but that remains to be seen(plus that reasoning doesn't hold true for Ingrid).

20 hours ago, LSM said:

Leonie: Lances and Bows are her likely specialities. Lances are likely the D, as she's an Archer here and still has lower Bows. (Elsewhere we've seen her as a Cavalier.) I'll note that she's gone HAM on training up that Swords rank, achieving Prowess 5 by roughly level 10! I guess Byleth has been doing a lot of tutoring?

That 5 swords just doesn't make any sense. Assuming you get level 5 at A+ that is, but at the very least from what we've seen you have to reach A minimum(nobody who we've seen the skills of has, so even though it doesn't fit the pattern it's not impossible), which is 1320 total exp if you start at E(which considering the skill position, is likely her case). That would take a lot of time through tutoring and weekends alone, it's pretty violently improbable.
Also while I agree with the reasoning, Leonie is canonically a hunter down to her commoner outfit with archery gloves(among other things), so I have a hard time believing bows aren't her main strength. But we'll see.

Also it's a bit tangential but, speaking of things that don't make sense:

 

... no real insight on this one, I just don't know what to make of it.

Edited July 9, 2019 by Cysx

[LSM]

On Strengths that start as E: I think you're correct, in that we haven't definitely seen anyone with such a situation. I strong suspect Ingrid is Strong in Faith while an E though, but that's not for sure. In the Death Knight chapter played at E3, a level 14 Ingrid (as a Cavalier) has [Lady Knight // Move Again // Swords 2, Lances 2, Authority 1] so I'm pretty sure she starts with an E in Faith. But in a Famitsu screenshot we see a level 2 Ingrid with D's in Swords and Lances, and E+ in Faith. 

If she's been through two bouts of lecturing with her Goals of Strong E+ Swords and D Lances, they'd each receive 64 points. Plus one early Seminar with Manuela at the beginning would grant 30 points to a Strong E+ Swords, and 48 points to a Strong E Faith. That would put her Swords into a D, with 34/80 in the experience bar, Lances at D with 64/80 filled, and Faith at an E+ with 8/60 filled. Which fits the image pretty well. If Faith's not a Strength, she'd only get 32 points into it. So I think a Strong E might be possible.

//

On Leonie: I forgot that her art is all in on being an Archer. She even has a special shooting glove. So yeah, D Bows makes sense. Like you said, the Swords 5 doesn't, and neither does that authority. I have no clue how to square it with what we know.

[Cysx]

1 hour ago, LSM said:

On Strengths that start as E: I think you're correct, in that we haven't definitely seen anyone with such a situation. I strong suspect Ingrid is Strong in Faith while an E though, but that's not for sure. In the Death Knight chapter played at E3, a level 14 Ingrid (as a Cavalier) has [Lady Knight // Move Again // Swords 2, Lances 2, Authority 1] so I'm pretty sure she starts with an E in Faith. But in a Famitsu screenshot we see a level 2 Ingrid with D's in Swords and Lances, and E+ in Faith. 

If she's been through two bouts of lecturing with her Goals of Strong E+ Swords and D Lances, they'd each receive 64 points. Plus one early Seminar with Manuela at the beginning would grant 30 points to a Strong E+ Swords, and 48 points to a Strong E Faith. That would put her Swords into a D, with 34/80 in the experience bar, Lances at D with 64/80 filled, and Faith at an E+ with 8/60 filled. Which fits the image pretty well. If Faith's not a Strength, she'd only get 32 points into it. So I think a Strong E might be possible.

//

On Leonie: I forgot that her art is all in on being an Archer. She even has a special shooting glove. So yeah, D Bows makes sense. Like you said, the Swords 5 doesn't, and neither does that authority. I have no clue how to square it with what we know.

Ok, I feel like I'm making you repeat yourself when it comes to Ingrid(Edit: Yup, I am. Sorry.). I'll reread through what you posted already before answering. Two things though:

- Great writeup! Forgot to say it
- Assuming you hadn't seen it already, there's a Lysithea combat forecast in a new japanese ad, it's not highly informative, but hey.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=7&v=hlKRg-4RuiQ

 

Edited July 9, 2019 by Cysx

[LSM]

Yeah, I just saw that in the other thread! She's a Mage with Reason 2, Faith 1, Authority 1. So nothing wildly unexpected.

[SpiceMan]

Bit unrelated, but I've been wondering about this and you seem like you know a lot about the teaching part of the game. How much work do you need to put into a hidden talent to unlock it's potential? Is it based on tutoring alone? Can combat improve it? Is it rank based? Idk, and it's annoying me. Do we have any inclination of how that works, or do we still need more info on that?

[LSM]

I have the same questions regarding hidden talents. It makes it hard to decide how much they're worth pursuing. I don't think it's rank based, though.

In the two examples we've seen, Dorothea gains hers with 7 points to go until a D rank (so 93 put in) and Hubert with 61 until D+ (119). But Dorothea has a -2 every Tutoring due to her Faith Weakness that Hubert's Neutral Lances doesn't have. At that point as well, Dorothea is up to a B+ in Reason and D in Swords, while Hubert is B in Reason and Authority, suggesting it's a fair bit into the game. But who knows how much they used them in combat, or focused on unlocking them?

Interestingly, while Dorothea has changed her Goals to be pure Reason, Hubert is Lances and Reason. The latter might hint that more than just tutoring can be used to unlock it. Maybe.

@VincentASM's breakdown of it translates it as "After tutoring this level a certain number of times, the student’s talent in that level may bloom!" Which certainly sounds more like only Tutoring will get results.

//

From all the new videos, the Golden Deer:

Edited July 13, 2019 by LSM