Black Eagles: Civil War

[Eltoshen]

10 minutes ago, KnightOfNohr said:

Yet, Edelgard’s War is against the church itself, not the Seiros Religion—imagine a war on the Catholic Church, but not on the Christian religion as a whole. On BE-E, a recruited Marianne will talk about how she still believes fervently in the goddess, despite the war at hand.

Further adding on that people of faith actually come back to Garreg Marrach when you're on her route.

Edit: not actually members of the Church

Edited September 3, 2019 by Eltoshen

[CyberNinja]

14 minutes ago, wissenschaft said:

I think they (the black eagles) will all side with Edelgard. Even Ferdinand. Ferdinand is not particularly fond of his father but is still upset having him removed from office by Edelgard. That said, Edelgard is openly favors Ferdinand because he is a fantastic general and she believes in Meritocracy above all else. While Ferdinand finds Edelgards path troubling he is willing to place his faith in her and that her vision of the world will be just. This is all just from what is said by each during Edelgard's route.

Also Ferdinand's rivalry flips the moment she proves she's better than him in their supports and even in story as Byleth's A support with him has him admit Edelgard is his superior for mobilizing the Empire for war. Thus Ferdinand's motivations move from proving he's superior to trying to curry favor from the one he respects above all. He's kind of innocent in a way.

[Vince777]

19 minutes ago, KnightOfNohr said:

Yet, Edelgard’s War is against the church itself, not the Seiros Religion—imagine a war on the Catholic Church, but not on the Christian religion as a whole. On BE-E, a recruited Marianne will talk about how she still believes fervently in the goddess, despite the war at hand.

We're talking about odds here. Who would they most likely side with.

There's a rationale you can make for it but I don't think Marianne would be very likely to choose a route against the church. Plus, she'd seek to avoid conflict, not join a revolution.

Same goes for Mercedes. Especially seeing the way she reacted to Rhea condemning the western church Bishops to death. She'd be all in for the Church. 
 

Edited September 3, 2019 by Vince777

[Eltoshen]

Totally ignoring supports and considering none of the characters change due to interactions between each other, you could argue that Marianne would prefer to avoid war entirely. However, many people are using her supports with people like Sylvain to support her potentially joining Empire or being an Empire sympathizer, which doesn't require her to actively oppose the Church.

In regards to Mercedes, she does not have a good history with the Empire. It seems a lot more likely she would side with the church. That, and Annette, her bestie, has no reason to side with the Empire.

[KnightOfNohr]

I had never imagined that Mercedes would side with the Empire—at most, she would be taken as a hostage to work in the infirmary.

[Troykv]

The character that will unconditionally support Edelgard regardless of the circunstances is Hubert of course.

Caspar most likely would also join unconditionally because of his family, and other stuff.

Then there are some borderline cases like Dorothea who would support the changes the Empire it's doing, but most likely might try to avoid the war unless Edelgard ask her for help personally. There are some canon dissidents from the Church (the professors) that would most likely took the Dorothea approach; and a canon dissident from the Alliance that may not join them initially, but most likely could do it if Edelgard appears and spares her (Lysithea). There is also Lorenz because of his circunstances.

And then there are cases that depends of how Edelgard decides to deal with the situation (Petra) or how they decided to take the change of the world (Ferdinand), there is also Linhardt that he would most likely try to avoid the conflict and end up as neutral, but if he ends up into the war, it mostly in the Empire's side because his father and Edelgard may eventually try to convince him.

The other characters are a lot more unlikely because they're either extremely loyal to their land/lord (most of the BL, Catherine, Cyril, Flayn, Seteth and Hilda), or they may only really join the Empire in very specific circunstances (most of the GD), or their loyalty comes more to which path Byleth decides to take (Alois, Shamir, Bernadetta, potentially Leonie).

Edited September 3, 2019 by Troykv

[Azure the Scale Tipper]

Well, I had a lot of facts wrong. Still looks like more students would be against her, though.

[KnightOfNohr]

I’m currently writing a fanfic, and I imagine Edelgard, just, never telling Hubert she’s the Flame Emperor, and at the big reveal he’s more or less coerced into fighting with the Church. Of course, in almost any scenario, he’d side with her.

[CyberNinja]

8 minutes ago, KnightOfNohr said:

I’m currently writing a fanfic, and I imagine Edelgard, just, never telling Hubert she’s the Flame Emperor, and at the big reveal he’s more or less coerced into fighting with the Church. Of course, in almost any scenario, he’d side with her.

But... Hubert already knows that she's the flame emperor, look at all those House Vestra mages running around in the Flame Emperor's army.

[KnightOfNohr]

17 minutes ago, CyberNinja said:

But... Hubert already knows that she's the flame emperor, look at all those House Vestra mages running around in the Flame Emperor's army.

How do we know they’re from House Vestra?

Anyway, this probably came about because of Remire Village, where Hubert runs up and goes “HAS ABYONEB SEEN KADY EDELARGD” and the FE immediately teleports away. That made Edelgard’s Emperor-ness so painfully obvious it was hard for me to believe he knew at that point.

This whole debacle’s probably just an excuse for me to Huberdinand Hurt/Comfort, honestly.

[Sid Starkiller]

He was probably trying to distract them so they wouldn't think about it too hard. He knew Byleth and Jeralt wouldn't put 2 and 2 together. Plus, Dedue and Hilda do the same thing on their paths.

[CyberNinja]

15 minutes ago, KnightOfNohr said:

How do we know they’re from House Vestra?

Anyway, this probably came about because of Remire Village, where Hubert runs up and goes “HAS ABYONEB SEEN KADY EDELARGD” and the FE immediately teleports away. That made Edelgard’s Emperor-ness so painfully obvious it was hard for me to believe he knew at that point.

This whole debacle’s probably just an excuse for me to Huberdinand Hurt/Comfort, honestly.

The game explicitly draws the difference between Flame Emperor army troops and TWSITD troops before and after the war phase begins. In the Crimson Flower ending the dark mage generic model is used to represent the Vestra house troops, Hubert's unique battalion representing his House troops are also dark mages, Edelgard's unique battalion and the Flame Emperor's battalion are copies of one another with different names, implying the personal battalions of both are representative of the Flame emperor's troops, because the dark mages in the flame emperor's army are flagged explicitly as Flame Emperor army soldiers, they can only be House Vestra soldiers. Hubert knows the Deathknight is one of Edelgard's soldiers and will explicitly tell him to withdraw during the Flayn rescue mission to which the Deathknight will explicitly refuse to take orders from Hubert (as he does to anyone except Edelgard) Furthermore Hubert is shown many times hinting at doing Edelgard's dirty work, or otherwise being a conspirator. for example, he threatens Kronya when she risks exposing Edelgard and he joins Edelgard in implicitly referencing the coming war.

 

Hubert is so in the know its insultingly obvious Edelgard is the flame emperor long before the reveal.

[NobodiePichu]

pro edelgard: hubert, caspar, bernadetta (hubert for obvious reasons and caspar/bernadetta because their families are cooperating with edelgard though i suspect if given the right incentive they would flip as well)

anti edelgard: petra (not only is she a glorified hostage she makes it pretty clear if recruited into another house that her goal is to free brigid from the empire by force so she opposes edelgard on principle), ferdinand (well his ideals clash with his father he still holds the noble system in some esteem and his natural rivalry with edelgard and conflicting ideological points make him prime to oppose her as well), linhardt (natural pacifist so i can see him opposing the empire on principle as well), dorothea (shes not a particular empire direhard and she dislikes bloodshed so like linhardt probably opposes her on principle as well? shes the one im most unsure off)

honestly, its not hard to make a case for any of them (aside from hubert because he literally could not exist without her) to oppose edelgard for a variety of reasons (caspar seeking justice for edelgards crimes opposes them, bernadetta because the new direction the empire is heading in scares her)

[Hauke]

2 hours ago, NobodiePichu said:

pro edelgard: hubert, caspar, bernadetta (hubert for obvious reasons and caspar/bernadetta because their families are cooperating with edelgard though i suspect if given the right incentive they would flip as well) 

anti edelgard: petra (not only is she a glorified hostage she makes it pretty clear if recruited into another house that her goal is to free brigid from the empire by force so she opposes edelgard on principle), ferdinand (well his ideals clash with his father he still holds the noble system in some esteem and his natural rivalry with edelgard and conflicting ideological points make him prime to oppose her as well), linhardt (natural pacifist so i can see him opposing the empire on principle as well), dorothea (shes not a particular empire direhard and she dislikes bloodshed so like linhardt probably opposes her on principle as well? shes the one im most unsure off)

honestly, its not hard to make a case for any of them (aside from hubert because he literally could not exist without her) to oppose edelgard for a variety of reasons (caspar seeking justice for edelgards crimes opposes them, bernadetta because the new direction the empire is heading in scares her)

Actually Bernadettas Family is against Edelgard.

Also people don't really seem to understand Ferdinand that much. His rivaly with Edelgard is because he adores her, not because he doesn't like her. He was even the one suggestion to edelgard to make schools for everybody and support the better students to creat a political elite to replace the nobility in the A support. Ferdinand is not a die hard noble elitist like he seems at first. Also he doesn't liked it father that much it seems, as he did saw his flaws. Ferdinand is one of the guys, who would likely help Edelgard very likely.

Also if Linhardt hates conflicts, why should he be part of a rebellion against Edelgard which means even more conflicts?

You basically also can many pro edelgard arguments about a lot of them too.

[Eltoshen]

6 hours ago, Sid Starkiller said:

He was probably trying to distract them so they wouldn't think about it too hard. He knew Byleth and Jeralt wouldn't put 2 and 2 together. Plus, Dedue and Hilda do the same thing on their paths.

In addition when you're on the mission to rescue Flayn, all three main lords are unavailable.

Regarding Bernadetta, her father is being held captive in all routes IIRC, and her mother is supporting Edelgard.

[CyberNinja]

I'd argue that the game follows non-recruited allegiance quite well. Ashe is less bound to the kingdom than he is to Lord Lonato's territory, for example.

[timon]

9 hours ago, NobodiePichu said:

pro edelgard: hubert, caspar, bernadetta (hubert for obvious reasons and caspar/bernadetta because their families are cooperating with edelgard though i suspect if given the right incentive they would flip as well)

anti edelgard: petra (not only is she a glorified hostage she makes it pretty clear if recruited into another house that her goal is to free brigid from the empire by force so she opposes edelgard on principle), ferdinand (well his ideals clash with his father he still holds the noble system in some esteem and his natural rivalry with edelgard and conflicting ideological points make him prime to oppose her as well), linhardt (natural pacifist so i can see him opposing the empire on principle as well), dorothea (shes not a particular empire direhard and she dislikes bloodshed so like linhardt probably opposes her on principle as well? shes the one im most unsure off)

honestly, its not hard to make a case for any of them (aside from hubert because he literally could not exist without her) to oppose edelgard for a variety of reasons (caspar seeking justice for edelgards crimes opposes them, bernadetta because the new direction the empire is heading in scares her)

The thing with the game, as I think @CyberNinja said, is that pretty much every character has good reasons to go any route.

Recruited Ferdinand says he wants to oppose her because ideals and father, CF Ferdinand says he has to do the work better than his father. Also I'd argue he's not really the guy who wants a hierarchic nobility, he's after a "fairy tale" type of nobility, I don't think he'd be too upset with the reform.

Dorothea and Linhardt have even more affinity to CF imo, don't forget that if you go with Edelgard everyone witnesses Rhea going blood crazy in the tomb. Linhardt's father also supports the empire, and for Dorothea remember that she suffered a lot by the hands of nobility. She also appears to admire Edelgard.

Petra is yet another case of very adaptable principle, either she wants to free Brigid from the empire or wants to be an equal ally (which Edelgard wants as well, it's made pretty clear in their conversations). Also she clearly enjoys her life in Fodlan even though her political situation is complex, so her Empire time is probably not that bad.

I think the equation Edelgard = bloodshed is a bit semplicistic, people choose to side with her after they see what Rhea truly is, it's not exactly a random war for the fun of it.

Again though, the same goes the other way, Caspar could want to oppose Edelgard because she doesn't sit right with his "justice". On Bernadetta I'm not that sure, I haven't dug too deep in her supports (I can't bring myself to) and for now I can't find a good reason to oppose, but I'm sure there's one. I mean if you can justify Ingrid leaving BL I'm sure everyone else will have good enough reasons too.

[axlorg89]

I'll just go with the ones that seem controversial.

Marianne - Against. While she hates her crest, she is deeply religious. Her goal in GD is to free Rhea rather than end the war. I know Edelgard's enemy is the church, not the religion, but from the offset it would definitely not look that way (especially since religious followers in the Empire get exiled in the other routes)
Petra - Against. While I do believe she has a friendship with Edelgard, there's no doubt that she was victim of racism and was an actual hostage. Her goal is to free Brigid and gain influential ties so I could see her choosing this.
Lysithea - Probably. She hates crests for obvious reasons but she also doesn't agree with the bloodshed, (if you get her early on, she relies on you to keep Edelgard from straying to a more bloody path). I could see both.
Felix - Against. He still loves his father reluctantly and I do believe he's loyal to the Kingdom anyways.
Sylvain - Side with. Just makes sense. While he would feel reluctant about siding against his friends, he saw how awful the crest system was at a young age. He jokingly/truthfully tells Byleth he wished to kill them because they had the luxury of not being involved in such a system. I'd say he definitely would do anything to destroy the system.

Edited September 3, 2019 by axlorg89

[Flere210]

Excluding the retainers because they are obvious.

Ferdinand: executed or locked somewhere because Edelgard would be foolish to take any risk with the Aegirs.

Dorothea: trying her hardest to not get drafted

Bernadetta: See dorothea.

Caspar: most likely folllwing his father.

Linhardt: probably studying in a laboratory how to remove crests from people. Still on Edelgard's side but not on combat duty.

Petra:very dependent on how Edelgard see Brigid, but i think she would side againist her. She cannot be sure that Brigid is not the next on her list.

Felix: his hatred for Dimitri would not offset everything else ino, and he is very tsundere whit his father.

Ingrid: obvious as fuck.

Annette: not on the Empire side unless forced.

Sylvain: the one character that has a good reason for joining every side. Him stabbing Felix and Ingrid in the best seems a gigantic dick move tho.

Mercedes: See Dorothea, but will simpathize for the Church side.

Leonie: would never side whith Jeralt's Killer.

Ignatz: See Dorothea.

Lorentz: what he does in BL.

Marianne: assuming character devolopment and that she disappear, would likely just follow the Edmunds.

Raphael: Yet another see Dorothea, unless the empire threat his home directly.

Lysithea: depend on how well informed she is, if she know everything Empire.

 

 

 

[Hauke]

2 minutes ago, Flere210 said:

 

Ferdinand: executed or locked somewhere because Edelgard would be foolish to take any risk with the Aegirs.

That would be stupid and totally against anything Edelgards want. Edelgard is against judging you by your family. So if she executes Ferdinand because his father is bad that would totally against her own idea. And if that was the case she should execute Hubert as well.

[Flere210]

4 minutes ago, Hauke said:

That would be stupid and totally against anything Edelgards want. Edelgard is against judging you by your family. So if she executes Ferdinand because his father is bad that would totally against her own idea. And if that was the case she should execute Hubert as well.

I explain better. I intended the Aegirs's wealth and territories, that are powerful enought to be a major annoyance. After she heard Ferdinand  speaking about how awesome being a noble is for one year straight, she has no reason to assume he would be on board whit her revolution, so the best option is to act againist him before he has any chance of doing anything.

Edited September 3, 2019 by Flere210

[Hauke]

Just now, Flere210 said:

I explain better. I intended the Aegirs's wealth and territories, that are powerful enought to be a major annoyance. After she heard Ferdinand  speaking about how awesome being a noble is for one year straight, she has no reason to assume he would be on board whit her revolution, so the best option is to act againist him before he has any chance of doing anything. 

That's not really in character for both of them. Ferdinand is actually one of the biggest supporters of her reforms in the supports. In his A support with Edelgard he is the one making suggestions how to replace nobility with a commoner political elite by making education free for everybody. Ferdinand is not really a 'Nobles are awesome!' dude as he seems on the first glance. He prefers a noble nobility and hates bad nobles. He even isn't very found about his father and his politics.

[Flere210]

Everyone support evey ideology in this game depending on wich route you pick, it means nothing at all.

And i am assuming that supports does not happens because we can't know wich support do happens and wich does not. Edelgard is already trying to juggle her school life whit the FE stuff, she can't realistically have the time to get to know very well all the other students. 

And while Ferdinand does not believe that Nobles are awesome he believe that being one is. Case in point: he act whit disbelief when he find out that some people don't like being nobles.

[NobodiePichu]

3 hours ago, timon said:

The thing with the game, as I think @CyberNinja said, is that pretty much every character has good reasons to go any route.

Recruited Ferdinand says he wants to oppose her because ideals and father, CF Ferdinand says he has to do the work better than his father. Also I'd argue he's not really the guy who wants a hierarchic nobility, he's after a "fairy tale" type of nobility, I don't think he'd be too upset with the reform.

Dorothea and Linhardt have even more affinity to CF imo, don't forget that if you go with Edelgard everyone witnesses Rhea going blood crazy in the tomb. Linhardt's father also supports the empire, and for Dorothea remember that she suffered a lot by the hands of nobility. She also appears to admire Edelgard.

Petra is yet another case of very adaptable principle, either she wants to free Brigid from the empire or wants to be an equal ally (which Edelgard wants as well, it's made pretty clear in their conversations). Also she clearly enjoys her life in Fodlan even though her political situation is complex, so her Empire time is probably not that bad.

I think the equation Edelgard = bloodshed is a bit semplicistic, people choose to side with her after they see what Rhea truly is, it's not exactly a random war for the fun of it.

Again though, the same goes the other way, Caspar could want to oppose Edelgard because she doesn't sit right with his "justice". On Bernadetta I'm not that sure, I haven't dug too deep in her supports (I can't bring myself to) and for now I can't find a good reason to oppose, but I'm sure there's one. I mean if you can justify Ingrid leaving BL I'm sure everyone else will have good enough reasons too.

 

true, just giving my two thoughts on who i thought would be most likely to not take edelgards side if gameplay didnt demand that they all follow you one way or the other. ferdinand for instance certainly wants to do better then his father but id also argue hes less likely to support edelgards overall methods since they are rather similar to his fathers to an extent which he didnt like to begin with.