Farfetched Heroes 2019 Speculations

[Stroud]

As much as I wish for Rinkah to finally appear..Jill is just the contender unless they really have planned a banner for her. On the other hand I have hopes that Rinkah appears until the end of year. And there are still some Fate units which I would like to have in FEH. Reina for example...

Edited September 7, 2019 by Stroud

[GrandeRampel]

5 hours ago, Stroud said:

As much as I wish for Rinkah to finally appear..Jill is just the contender unless they really have planned a banner for her. On the other hand I have hopes that Rinkah appears until the end of year. And there are still some Fate units which I would like to have in FEH. Reina for example...

If you want Rinkah, you don't have to hope for a banner with Jill.

You have to hope for a banner with Awakening Anna and Severa both present. If Jill was added the Farfetched heroines would just be Anna and Severa.

I don't get why you guys think they would be skipped when they are in the exact same situation as Owain. 

And even then you would need to also hope beyond hope that seasonal alts actually disqualify characters.

My prediction if none of the relevant characters get added by then is

AwaAnna, Louise, Conrad and Nils.

But we could have Lif instead of Nils. We have the precedent of Loki coming on Brave Redux instead of saving her for the banber with Surtr and Ylgr, so we can't be sure if he counts or not.

Edited September 7, 2019 by GrandeRampel

[Interdimensional Observer]

23 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

If on average it costs 1,000 orbs to pull all 4 characters from a 4-character banner (~250 orbs per character), then it costs on average about 550 orbs to pull all 3 characters from a 3-character banner (~200 orbs per character) and on average about 250 orbs to pull both characters from a 2-character banner (~150 orbs per character).

The math here isn't what I'd expect. If 1000 for 4, then I'd expect 750 for 3 and 500 for 2. What is the cause of the greater reduction?

[Humanoid]

1 hour ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

The math here isn't what I'd expect. If 1000 for 4, then I'd expect 750 for 3 and 500 for 2. What is the cause of the greater reduction?

Simplistically, because the focus rate remains 3% in all cases, the units appear 0.75%, 1%, and 1.5% of the time respectively for 4, 3, and 2-unit banners. When you're twice as likely to get a focus unit and you only need to pull half as many units in total, you logically only need a quarter of the orbs.

In reality there are a lot more variables of course and calculating them by hand is well beyond me. However, you can play around with this simulator to observe the changes that variables such as the number and colour of focus units has on the likelihood of summoning any or all units on a given banner: https://www.fullyconcentrated.net/fehstatsim/

Edited September 7, 2019 by Humanoid

[Stroud]

2 hours ago, GrandeRampel said:

If you want Rinkah, you don't have to hope for a banner with Jill.

You have to hope for a banner with Awakening Anna and Severa both present. If Jill was added the Farfetched heroines would just be Anna and Severa.

If its Awakening Anna she will have a different weapon from an Axe. Awakening Anna comes as a Trickster with Sword and Staff. So she might well receive one of those 2 roles. The choice of her weapon might even be more open than this.

For me it just was pointing out my wishful thinking. Especially with Charlotte and Rinkah its quite of a Missmanagement to me. Quite a few fate banners last year and not one of them has their Normal unit. But with that all I still think of Charlotte and Rinkah's chances as low. They do quite well in CYL, but are not quite high as some other characters which are mentioned here.. 

Also I think Anna is a bit overlooked out of confusion, because it feels that she is also a bit overdue. But for whatever Reason they just hesitate for it. So while you could say she has a good position to be there it still would be a certain degree of surprise. As for Severa, fair point. She can be the next Owain, who knows.

[Ice Dragon]

2 hours ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

The math here isn't what I'd expect. If 1000 for 4, then I'd expect 750 for 3 and 500 for 2. What is the cause of the greater reduction?

To elaborate on what @Humanoid said, I'll use the 2-character banner as an example.

Most players assume that each color is divided exactly as the summon rates advertise, so 3% focus, 3% 5-star, etc. However, this cannot possibly be the case because the rates wouldn't add up to 100% if the color has no focus character.

The game actually starts with the summon pools and then divides by character. This means that for a 2-character banner, each individual focus character has double the summon rate as for a 4-character banner. The way the math works out, a doubled summon rate in the overall pool necessarily means a doubled summon rate when sniping.

Double the summon rate means you spend half as many orbs per single character, and half the number of characters (meaning you don't waste orbs on colors that don't have a focus character) means that it takes a quarter the number of orbs to get both characters from the banner compared to a 4-character banner.

[Very epic FE gamer]

Bartre, Dorcas and Wrys

[TheNiddo]

Personally, I'm of the opinion that they won't count seasonal alts against the Farfetched ranking, using Sigrun as my evidence (IS having zero issues releasing the real version so close to her alt version). I also don't believe that the Book 3 OCs will show up as they're slated for their own banner most likely like the Book 2 OCs.

That would mean on the female side we're either looking at Anna/Louise or Louise/Jill. Anna is a puzzling case, as they haven't even given her a seasonal alt like the other two Askr OCs. But technically speaking it is a different Anna. I'm leaning towards it being Anna/Louise, but Louise/Jill would not be shocking to me.

For the male side we have Bruno as being the one I'm not sure about. Leaning towards us getting an alt version of him like we did with Veronica with them saving the real Bruno and Veronica for whenever they're going to be released for real. That leaves us with a Bruno/Conrad male line up, with Conrad/Nils being the alternative if they full stop on Bruno. 

I'm going with the banner being Anna (Sword), Louise (Bow), Bruno (Green or Blue Tome), and Conrad being the TT unit. Anna will have the Levin Sword, Louise will have Rienfleche, Bruno will have a random personal tome (but not the one he uses in the story), and Conrad will have a Blessed Lance. 

If Jill shows up I'll go with her having the Laguz Axe actually, if Nils shows up I don't have the foggiest idea what to expect breath wise. 

Edited September 8, 2019 by TheNiddo

[TriforceP]

My guess:
Jill (Axe)
Rinkah  (Axe)
Severa (Bow)
TT: Awakening!Anna (Sword)

Also, Rinea is in the game now, so she shouldn't be counted on the list for this banner. Other people have probably pointed that out already, but just mentioning it. 

[Vince777]

Still trusting (hoping) we will get 5 farfetched heroes, 4 on a banner, the other being free.

People assume it will be 4 because there were only 4 in the previous two farfetched banners but that was when new heroes banners didn't have 4 new units introduced anymore. IS has since ditched 3-heroes banners. 

 

[DraceEmpressa]

I hoped for the 4 character banner and 1 free unit as well, so that's 5 unit getting in at once. 

I also noticed the pattern that each month there will be one paralogue and story chapter , paralogue is paired with TT and story chapter is paired with FB now. And as Farfetched Heroes is tied with paralogue instead of story chapter like Brave/CYL banner, I am expecting the paralogue is accompanied with a TT.

[Florete]

There is surprisingly a lot to consider for this.

While the past two were 2 male, 2 female, they also happened to be the top 4 not implemented regardless of gender (barring special cases like Micaiah, OCs, and beast units). This time, though, aside from Bruno (who might be skipped) and Lif (who will definitely be skipped), there's a long line of female characters ranking before the male characters. Even if you skipped both Annas (Awakening and Fates), Thrasir (who likely will be skipped), Hel, Rinea, Louise, and Charlotte, you still have Jill, Severa, Rinkah, Ilyana, Lilith, and Selena (Sacred Stones) before the next male character, Conrad, enough to fill a 4-unit banner + TT/GHB with one still left out.

Will they skip Bruno? They added Loki, but these cases aren't necessarily equivalent. Will they skip Anna (Awakening)? There's not really any other situation comparable, though Owain's is similar and arguably shows that Anna should be eligible. What about Louise and Rinea (and Charlotte, but she's far enough down that they likely won't get to her)? Do their alts disqualify them or not? Hell, even though I said above that they'll be skipped, maybe Thrasir and Lif actually will appear on it since they're both high enough to if Anna and/or Louise is skipped.

And what about the amount? After Sigrun randomly appeared on the brave TT, it seems likely they'll put the main 4 in a banner and a 5th as a freebie, but who will it be? The next most voted character not in the game or a total rando? I think the former is more likely but you never know.

So here's my guess. The banner units:

Anna (Awakening) (sword infantry)
Louise (colorless bow infantry)
Conrad (lance cavalry)
Nils (green dragon infantry)

And Jill (axe flying), the next most voted, as a GHB. I think Lif and Thrasir will be skipped for their own post-book 3 banner, I think Bruno will be skipped because he's too plot-central and Loki was a mistake anyway, I think the seasonal alts won't disqualify the main versions of characters, I think they'll keep the even gender ratio (even the bride banner this year wasn't all female), and I think Anna will be added because her votes were separate from Heroes Anna.

[Gregster101]

8 hours ago, Florete said:

There is surprisingly a lot to consider for this.

While the past two were 2 male, 2 female, they also happened to be the top 4 not implemented regardless of gender (barring special cases like Micaiah, OCs, and beast units). This time, though, aside from Bruno (who might be skipped) and Lif (who will definitely be skipped), there's a long line of female characters ranking before the male characters. Even if you skipped both Annas (Awakening and Fates), Thrasir (who likely will be skipped), Hel, Rinea, Louise, and Charlotte, you still have Jill, Severa, Rinkah, Ilyana, Lilith, and Selena (Sacred Stones) before the next male character, Conrad, enough to fill a 4-unit banner + TT/GHB with one still left out.

Will they skip Bruno? They added Loki, but these cases aren't necessarily equivalent. Will they skip Anna (Awakening)? There's not really any other situation comparable, though Owain's is similar and arguably shows that Anna should be eligible. What about Louise and Rinea (and Charlotte, but she's far enough down that they likely won't get to her)? Do their alts disqualify them or not? Hell, even though I said above that they'll be skipped, maybe Thrasir and Lif actually will appear on it since they're both high enough to if Anna and/or Louise is skipped.

And what about the amount? After Sigrun randomly appeared on the brave TT, it seems likely they'll put the main 4 in a banner and a 5th as a freebie, but who will it be? The next most voted character not in the game or a total rando? I think the former is more likely but you never know.

So here's my guess. The banner units:

Anna (Awakening) (sword infantry)
Louise (colorless bow infantry)
Conrad (lance cavalry)
Nils (green dragon infantry)

And Jill (axe flying), the next most voted, as a GHB. I think Lif and Thrasir will be skipped for their own post-book 3 banner, I think Bruno will be skipped because he's too plot-central and Loki was a mistake anyway, I think the seasonal alts won't disqualify the main versions of characters, I think they'll keep the even gender ratio (even the bride banner this year wasn't all female), and I think Anna will be added because her votes were separate from Heroes Anna.

Please don't suggest Jill as a GHB. I really don't want her to be done dirty like Haar X(

[redlight]

10 minutes ago, Gregster101 said:

Please don't suggest Jill as a GHB. I really don't want her to be done dirty like Haar X(

In the case of a batch of characters based on popularity she'd be done more justice. Also, we now have gen 4 BST.

[Gregster101]

1 minute ago, redlight said:

In the case of a batch of characters based on popularity she'd be done more justice. Also, we now have gen 4 BST.

But that also pretty much means I have to go through the hell hole that is Aether Raids in order to +10 her X(

[redlight]

Just now, Gregster101 said:

But that also pretty much means I have to go through the hell hole that is Aether Raids in order to +10 her X(

Slow and steady. Or would you rather sell a kidney?

[Gregster101]

14 minutes ago, redlight said:

Slow and steady. Or would you rather sell a kidney?

I'm not gonna answer that, but point is, I don't want them to do Jill dirty. Also, I've literally been saving all of my orbs for either her and/or Patty to be added, so Jill being a GHB would mean my orb saving has been meaningless (cuz Patty requires IS to actually remember that Jugdral exists)

[Kuronga]

1) All~
[Blue/Magic] Bruno
[Red/Sword] Lif
[Colorless/Dagger] Aw!Anna
[Colorless/Bow] Louise
Summon: Bruno, Lif and Louise
GHB/Tempest: Aw!Anna

2) All - Hel Army
[Blue/Magic] Bruno
[Blue/Lance] Conrad
[Colorless/Dagger] Aw!Anna
[Red or Green/Bow] Louise
Summon: Conrad, Aw!Anna and Louise
GHB/Tempest: Bruno

3) All - Alter
[Red/Sword] Lif
[Blue/Lance] Conrad
[Colorless/Dagger] Aw!Anna
[Green/Magic] Thrasir
Summon: Lif, Thrasir and Aw!Anna
GHB/Tempest: Conrad

4) All - Alter - Hel Army
[Blue/Lance] Conrad
[Blue/Dragon] Nils
[Colorless/Dagger] Aw!Anna
[Blue/Sword] Jill
=> 3 Blue... 1 out...

4.1) Option1:
[Blue/Lance] Conrad
[Blue/Dragon] Nils
[Colorless/Dagger] Aw!Anna
[Red/Sword] Severa
Summon: Nils, Aw.Anna, Severa
GHB/Tempest: Conrad

4.2) Option2:
[Red or Green/Bow] Shinon
[Blue/Dragon] Nils or [Blue/Lance] Conrad
[Colorless/Dagger] Aw!Anna
[Blue/Sword] Jill
Summon: Shinon, Nils, Aw!Anna
GHB/Tempest: Jill

5) I believe....

[Blue/Dragon] Nils -> We received a free Ninian not Azura...
[Colorless/Dagger] Aw!Anna -> She's very high in the ranking IS need to put in FEH a Alt!Anna for down in the ranking.
[Blue/Magic] Bruno or [Blue/Lance] Conrad -> I inclined for Conrad but I prefered Bruno ;__;
(?) -> Must be a red or green unit: Severa (red), Louise (green bow or red bow) or Rinkah (green)

Summon: Nils, Aw!Anna and other girl

GHB/Tempest: Blue male

 

 

[NSSKG151]

With Thrasir being a Mythic Hero I think it is safe to say that Lif will also be a Mythic/Legendary Hero so we don't have to worry about the Book 3 OCs showing up on Farfetched. I'm still going to hold to my prediction of Awakening Anna, Jill, Conrad and Nils being the characters picked for this year's Farfetched banner though there is the possibility of Louise, Bruno and Severa showing up as well. Louise and Bruno are still ambiguous since they are technically in the game as seasonal unit which I believe is enough to disqualify them for Farfetched but we don't know for sure what they think of seasonal alts. Severa is the next is line if Awakening Anna is passed over for Farfetched especially and recently I started to entertain this idea especially with the unofficial reveal of Anna being playable in Three Houses so it is possible for Awakening Anna to come later on a hypothetical banner of Anna from Awakening, Fates, Three House and either Archanea or Tellius.

[Gregster101]

6 minutes ago, NSSKG151 said:

With Thrasir being a Mythic Hero I think it is safe to say that Lif will also be a Mythic/Legendary Hero so we don't have to worry about the Book 3 OCs showing up on Farfetched. I'm still going to hold to my prediction of Awakening Anna, Jill, Conrad and Nils being the characters picked for this year's Farfetched banner though there is the possibility of Louise, Bruno and Severa showing up as well. Louise and Bruno are still ambiguous since they are technically in the game as seasonal unit which I believe is enough to disqualify them for Farfetched but we don't know for sure what they think of seasonal alts. Severa is the next is line if Awakening Anna is passed over for Farfetched especially and recently I started to entertain this idea especially with the unofficial reveal of Anna being playable in Three Houses so it is possible for Awakening Anna to come later on a hypothetical banner of Anna from Awakening, Fates, Three House and either Archanea or Tellius.

God I really hope Jill shows up on the Farfetched banner now. I'm losing more and more of my sanity the longer it takes for her to be added into Heroes X(

[Hilda]

41 minutes ago, NSSKG151 said:

With Thrasir being a Mythic Hero I think it is safe to say that Lif will also be a Mythic/Legendary Hero so we don't have to worry about the Book 3 OCs showing up on Farfetched. I'm still going to hold to my prediction of Awakening Anna, Jill, Conrad and Nils being the characters picked for this year's Farfetched banner though there is the possibility of Louise, Bruno and Severa showing up as well. Louise and Bruno are still ambiguous since they are technically in the game as seasonal unit which I believe is enough to disqualify them for Farfetched but we don't know for sure what they think of seasonal alts. Severa is the next is line if Awakening Anna is passed over for Farfetched especially and recently I started to entertain this idea especially with the unofficial reveal of Anna being playable in Three Houses so it is possible for Awakening Anna to come later on a hypothetical banner of Anna from Awakening, Fates, Three House and either Archanea or Tellius.

The release of Thrasir as a Mythic hero doesnt tell us anything at all. Yilgr wasnt released as a Legendary Hero.

And I dont think that Brunos alt disqualifies him from Farfetched heroes. If Thrasir as a Mythic hero has shown us, that anything can happen if IS wants it to.

[Othin]

I'm pretty confident it'll be Awakening Anna, Jill, Nils, and Conrad. Louise, Rinea, and Bruno all have playable representation in Heroes, Awakening Anna does not. 

If we get a fifth character, I could see Louise, but I feel like they wouldn't want her second version to also be free and it'd be odd for her to be on the banner while another gets bumped to free. Severa could be a cleaner option for a free fifth character. 

[Ottservia]

4 hours ago, NSSKG151 said:

recently I started to entertain this idea especially with the unofficial reveal of Anna being playable in Three Houses so it is possible for Awakening Anna to come later on a hypothetical banner of Anna from Awakening, Fates, Three House and either Archanea or Tellius.

That actually sounds like a really fun idea. I would love that. Like just imagine the hilarity that would ensue for the forging bonds event. It would be awesome.

also are we sure that a character’s alt excludes them from far fetched heroes? Like is there an example of a character who is alt exclusive scoring high enough on CYL to warrant being a far fetched hero but didn’t? Just curious is all.

Edited September 28, 2019 by Ottservia

[Gregster101]

16 minutes ago, Ottservia said:

That actually sounds like a really fun idea. I would love that. Like just imagine the hilarity that would ensue for the forging bonds event. It would be awesome.

also are we sure that a character’s alt excludes them from far fetched heroes? Like is there an example of a character who is alt exclusive scoring high enough on CYL to warrant being a far fetched hero but didn’t? Just curious is all.

I'm just desperately hoping that Bride Louise is enough to disqualify her just so Jill can finally be added, cuz I seriously do not want to wait another year playing this game just for Jill to be added.

[Ottservia]

5 minutes ago, Gregster101 said:

I'm just desperately hoping that Bride Louise is enough to disqualify her just so Jill can finally be added, cuz I seriously do not want to wait another year playing this game just for Jill to be added.

Dude I know how you feel. I hope it’s enough to get Severa even the slightest chance closer to getting in though I doubt it’s going to happen at any rate. *sigh* seeing so many people in this thread suggest she has a chance makes me slightly upset cause I know it’s not gonna happen and I don’t wanna get my hopes up just to be disappointed.

Edited September 28, 2019 by Ottservia