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rocanaan

A Spreadsheet for Fishing XP, Gold and optimal fishing strategy

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Hello,

I was curious about how much Professor XP you can get by fishing and what is the correct strategy regarding which fish to keep. So I did a spreadsheet to calculate that. You can find the spreadsheet here

Assumptions (some of these can be improved, feel free to contribute):

- I am using Fish EXP stats and gold from Samurai Games and the probability for getting each shadow on each event, and from getting each fish from each shadow from the Serenes Forest page on fishing. Note that the Serenes Forest page currently assumes that "Rainbow" fish can be caught with any bait (I have never caught it other than with the 5-star bait, not sure if it is possible) and the data for the "chance of each reward" with grades 5 and 6 might be inverted

- I am assuming you can choose to "re-roll" your first and second fish if you think it has below average reward, but that you will always keep the third fish. I don't know the exact probability of being offered a fourth fish, but as long as it is around 50% or lower, this is very close to optimal (lowest fish EXP is 10, average reward on a successful reroll is not much greater than 20 on all event/bait combinations)

- I am assuming you will always hit "Perfect" on all your fish, so your "Grade" goes from 3 to 7 depending on bait. If you want to assume you only hit perfect some % of the time, you'd need to add the rewards from  grades 1 and 2 on the second tab and do some sort of weighted average

- I am not accounting for the Fistfuls of Fish event, since the current Serenes Forest page has no info on it. I don't have a save file near the event right now. I am not sure if you are guaranteed fish x4 on a Perfect or if it can be x3 even on a perfect. I also don't know for certain whether the chances of each shadow type are the same as those of regular Sundays  Regardless, as long as you're getting 2x fish, this is always the best event by far with regards to Professor XP. Interestingly, Fistfuls of Fish at x4 would be better even than Fish of Mystery for Gold as well, for all bait types, but not by much.

How it works

The spreadsheet was made in a bit of a hurry, so some of the formulas might be clunkier than needed and the interface is not the prettiest. Basically, on cell H1 on the first tab you select whether you want to calculate XP or Gold, results show up on tabs Flowchart and Expected gains. We start by combining experience/gold data with the possible rewards for each shadow/bait combination, then multiply each by that color's frequency at a given event day. This gives us an estimate of the value of a single random fish (if you couldn't retry). This gives us the value of our third fish (which we must keep), and lets us calculate the value of the second and first fish (and the optimal strategy) by going backwards: at each step, you pick between the known value of the current fish and the average value of the next step (including possible retries).

Takeaways:

- Expected XP actually varies relatively little both per bait type and per event type (except for Fistfuls of Fish, which I'm not calculating). The bait you can get from the merchant each mont gives you from 921-1178 XP on average.

- If you want rules of thumbs, for maximizing XP, you pretty much throw away everything that is not at least red, with two types of exceptions:

        A) with low level bait, it is unintuitively optimal (from a pure XP perspective - I would still keep those for the gold) to reroll Gold fish in a few event types. This is  because low-level gold yields Silver           and Gold fish for only 20XP,  which is lower than average for Red

       B) With high-level bait you keep Cyan on the second attempt on most event types

- For maximizing Gold, you actually throw away even the reds, both on the first and second attempt. However, in Normal Sunday you keep Red on the second attempt

Tables:

A) XP Flowchart

Spoiler

 

First attempt                
Event Score Bait Blue Cyan Red Gold Purple Rainbow
Fish of Mystery 3 Insect Larva Retry Retry Keep Retry Keep Keep
Fish of Mystery 4 Pond Snail Retry Retry Keep Retry Keep Keep
Fish of Mystery 5 Earthworm Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Fish of Mystery 6 Blowfly Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Fish of Mystery 7 Herring Bait Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 3 Insect Larva Retry Retry Keep Retry Keep Keep
Golden Fish 4 Pond Snail Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 5 Earthworm Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 6 Blowfly Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 7 Herring Bait Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 3 Insect Larva Retry Retry Keep Retry Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 4 Pond Snail Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 5 Earthworm Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 6 Blowfly Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 7 Herring Bait Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 3 Insect Larva Retry Retry Keep Retry Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 4 Pond Snail Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 5 Earthworm Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 6 Blowfly Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 7 Herring Bait Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
                 
Second attempt                
Fish of Mystery 3 Insect Larva Retry Retry Keep Retry Keep Keep
Fish of Mystery 4 Pond Snail Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Fish of Mystery 5 Earthworm Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Fish of Mystery 6 Blowfly Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Fish of Mystery 7 Herring Bait Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 3 Insect Larva Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 4 Pond Snail Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 5 Earthworm Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 6 Blowfly Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 7 Herring Bait Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 3 Insect Larva Retry Retry Keep Retry Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 4 Pond Snail Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 5 Earthworm Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 6 Blowfly Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 7 Herring Bait Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 3 Insect Larva Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 4 Pond Snail Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 5 Earthworm Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 6 Blowfly Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 7 Herring Bait Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep Keep

B) Gold Flowchart

Spoiler
First attempt                
Event Score Bait Blue Cyan Red Gold Purple Rainbow
Fish of Mystery 3 Insect Larva Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Fish of Mystery 4 Pond Snail Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Fish of Mystery 5 Earthworm Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Fish of Mystery 6 Blowfly Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Fish of Mystery 7 Herring Bait Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 3 Insect Larva Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 4 Pond Snail Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 5 Earthworm Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 6 Blowfly Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 7 Herring Bait Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 3 Insect Larva Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 4 Pond Snail Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 5 Earthworm Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 6 Blowfly Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 7 Herring Bait Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 3 Insect Larva Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 4 Pond Snail Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 5 Earthworm Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 6 Blowfly Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 7 Herring Bait Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
                 
Second attempt                
Fish of Mystery 3 Insect Larva Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Fish of Mystery 4 Pond Snail Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Fish of Mystery 5 Earthworm Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Fish of Mystery 6 Blowfly Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Fish of Mystery 7 Herring Bait Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 3 Insect Larva Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 4 Pond Snail Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 5 Earthworm Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 6 Blowfly Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Golden Fish 7 Herring Bait Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 3 Insect Larva Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 4 Pond Snail Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 5 Earthworm Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 6 Blowfly Retry Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep
Lots of Large Fish 7 Herring Bait Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 3 Insect Larva Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 4 Pond Snail Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 5 Earthworm Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 6 Blowfly Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep
Normal Sunday 7 Herring Bait Retry Retry Keep Keep Keep Keep

C) Summary of XP / Gold gains:

Spoiler
Event Score Bait Expected XP Expected Gold # Lure per month XP per month Gold per month
Fish of Mystery 3 Insect Larva 28.31 277.38 10.00    
Fish of Mystery 4 Pond Snail 28.75 300.85 10.00    
Fish of Mystery 5 Earthworm 30.00 314.19 10.00    
Fish of Mystery 6 Blowfly 29.78 328.75 5.00    
Fish of Mystery 7 Herring Bait 31.76 356.17 5.00 1,178.34 12,348.75
Golden Fish 3 Insect Larva 20.88 136.44 10.00    
Golden Fish 4 Pond Snail 22.05 182.78 10.00    
Golden Fish 5 Earthworm 23.95 211.34 10.00    
Golden Fish 6 Blowfly 23.83 238.24 5.00    
Golden Fish 7 Herring Bait 26.80 295.30 5.00 921.89 7,973.29
Lots of Large Fish 3 Insect Larva 24.78 91.47 10.00    
Lots of Large Fish 4 Pond Snail 25.52 120.66 10.00    
Lots of Large Fish 5 Earthworm 26.81 140.74 10.00    
Lots of Large Fish 6 Blowfly 26.31 151.16 5.00    
Lots of Large Fish 7 Herring Bait 28.81 187.49 5.00 1,046.65 5,221.89
Normal Sunday 3 Insect Larva 21.76 85.30 10.00    
Normal Sunday 4 Pond Snail 22.46 112.88 10.00    
Normal Sunday 5 Earthworm 24.03 131.93 10.00    
Normal Sunday 6 Blowfly 23.40 141.70 5.00    
Normal Sunday 7 Herring Bait 25.81 177.78 5.00 928.47 4,898.44

 

Edited by rocanaan
Missing links

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The rainbow fish only appears on fish of mystery events with a 5% chance of appearing. One appears I think in chapter 3 of part 1. But at that point you probably have less than 10 bait.

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