Choose Your Legends: Round 4 predictions

[DefyingFates]

1 minute ago, Benice said:

Nealuchi will win all categories

I'll definitely vote for Eirika, because she is my favourite lord of the games I've played. (7, 8, 10.) Just for fun, I might vote for Plumeria. It'd be kind of funny to see an undevellopped bad guys win CYL. It'd probably mess up book 4 in some way also.

Undecided about the men, because if I vote for my favourites, I'd waste my vote. I'll probably vote for Lyon and Rolf, although neither will have a chance unless everyone else gets Thanos snapped.

Eirika and Lyon?! A man after my own heart! And I know he's not around much, but Nealuchi's a sweet old guy; I like him too.

2 minutes ago, Thane said:

Oh yeah. New OC's popularity has been surprisingly strong before, and Plumeria already has both people's sympathy and a bunch of memes. I mean, her fate is kind of messed up so if I didn't have to support my low tier favorites (Brave Cynthia 2035!) I'd consider throwing her a sympathy vote.

Sympathy isn't the only thing she's getting out of the community...

8 minutes ago, Ottservia said:

Whoever comes out on top here, I'm gonna be fairly disappointed not because I don't like three houses or anything just that a CYL with only one game being represented is a just a little underwhelming.

Agreed. I absolutely love Three Houses and even I'd be annoyed if they won all four slots. Hopefully the rest of the community agrees. Whatever the results at the time, we'll find out in the midterms, at the very least.

[Ice Dragon]

Hm... I might have to drop my votes for Dheginhansea to vote for Triandra instead... Tough choices.

 

23 minutes ago, DefyingFates said:

Also, let's not forget that Eirika got her SM!alt right in the middle of CYL, which made her public enemy number one as far as voting went and was why she wasn't the one people rallied behind.

So there's still Azura in fourth place after Eirika. Even if Camilla weren't eligible at all, I think Veronica would still have gotten second place in CYL 2 simply from her strong showing at the midterm results.

 

25 minutes ago, Thane said:

The reason why I brought up controversy is both because there might be many people who don't want to vote for her, obviously, or will rally against her after the midterm results.

If you don't want to vote for a character, you don't want to vote for a character. That's true for every character in the game, not just controversial ones. Disliking a character and being indifferent to them are completely indistinguishable in this voting format.

I'm not convinced "rallying against" a character actually works in practice outside of a close race for second or a popular underdog appearing higher than expected in the midterm results.

Edited January 12, 2020 by Ice Dragon

[eclipse]

The minute things get out of hand, I'm shutting this topic down.

Instigators will be suspended until after CYL is over.

[DefyingFates]

9 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

So there's still Azura in fourth place after Eirika. Even if Camilla weren't eligible at all, I think Veronica would still have gotten first place in CYL 2 simply from her strong showing at the midterm results.

As I said, I think Camilla and the chance to play as Veronica were both contributing factors. Also remember that Azura had already gotten two alts by that point (PA and NY), so she had that going against her too.

@eclipse: Thanks for dropping by! I'm happy we've been civil so far, but yeah: it's good to have a mod spell that out as clear as you have.

Edited January 12, 2020 by DefyingFates

[XRay]

Hm... Now that I think about it, we do not have a Dancer/Singer winning Choose Your Legends yet. I think I will go for Plumeria first instead of Anna, and then decide between Anna, Edelgard, and Plumeria (or another Dancer/Singer) after the midterms.

19 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Hm... I might have to drop my votes for Dheginhansea to vote for Triandra instead... Tough choices.

If Triandra does better than Plumeria and Triandra is like in the top 10, I think I will back Triandra too. Although Azura is also an option so I guess it depends on which Dancer/Singer scores the highest during the midterms and if they are in the top 10.

Edited January 12, 2020 by XRay

[eclipse]

10 minutes ago, DefyingFates said:

 

@eclipse: Thanks for dropping by! I'm happy we've been civil so far, but yeah: it's good to have a mod spell that out as clear as you have.

I try~!

Oh and I forgot to mention: Bitching about Camilla is an automatic three-month suspension.  She had her CYL appearance already.  Just in case this topic goes in that direction (hint: don't do this).

I have my predictions as to what will cause this topic to close, but I'll keep it to myself.  I also have my predictions on who will be the next CYL (at least two 3H characters, though y'all can surprise me and get Sothis in there), and this is enough to make my head spin.

[Lewyn]

Plumeria has a good chance, OCs do real well in these polls, and she is going to draw a ton of fans.  3H is popular and new, so expect one male and one female to make it probably.  Sothis might be real popular, she got the only 3H seasonal thusfar.  

I'll try to push FE4 characters in my votes that haven't made it yet.  Erinys, Brigid, Lex, Oifeye, etc.  If they have mid term votes I will likely pull for Pulmeria if she has a real chance.

[Ice Dragon]

7 minutes ago, DefyingFates said:

Also remember that Azura had already gotten two alts by that point (PA and NY), so she had that going against her too.

The top five in the midterms and the final results were literally the exact same characters in literally the exact same order except with Veronica moved 3 places up.

Furthermore, Eirika's final results put her right on Camilla's heels rather than having the wider gap that would have been expected if she lost votes due to the addition of her alt halfway through voting.

What this tells me is that if voters moved to Veronica from the other top contenders, they did so with a relatively even distribution. However, I would still wager that the majority of the second half votes for her came from players who would have otherwise voted for characters below her.

 

I still do not believe that rallying against a character is in any way significant to the final results.

Additionally, in order for rallying to make a difference, there has to be a character actually worth rallying for over other characters. In CYL 2, it was Veronica. In CYL 3, it was Micaiah. With the sheer number of new characters added to the roster due to the release of Three Houses, I do not think there will be enough of a consensus on who to rally for if players feel the need to try to knock a character out of the top positions and even if there is, it would be nearly impossible to rally enough votes to knock a character from first in the midterms to third in the final tally.

Especially with CYL 3 having first and second place swap places, I think voters in CYL 4 might be a bit more wary of letting of the steam if they see their number one in first at the midterms.

[XRay]

The more I think about a Dancer/Singer winning, the more I am salivating. I mean, VS!Azura, Triandra, and Plumeria already feels kind of bonkers since they are already Legendary or Mythic Heroes, so a Brave version of Legendary and Mythic Hero has to be COMPLETELY BONKERS and SUPER BROKEN right? Like imagine all the exciting and fun possibilities!

Imagine Brave Azura giving all stat +7 and movement +1 to ALL allies within 2 spaces at the start of turn.

Or Triandra providing in combat stat debuff to foes within 3 columns and 3 rows and Null Special Disrupt, AND add Penalty stat debuff and Guard to foes at start of turn.

Or Plumeria having a combo of the former two where it buffs her allies through the roof and debuffs foes like crazy by Panicking them with all stat -7 on top of the regular debuff of all stat -7.

[NSSKG151]

My prediction is for males it will probably be a competition between Dimitri, Claude and Marth. For females I'm not so sure. Edelgard will definitely be taking one of the female spots but the other could be any other girl...Eirika, Azura, Anna or one of the Book 4 OCs though I don't think it will be another Three Houses girl despite what some people seem to think. Really depends who the community wants to rally behind which won't become more apparent until next week. Though I think people will be satisfied with the end result as long as there isn't any outside influence from celebrities (voice actors, youtuber/twitch streamers, etc.) while voting is going on.

As for me all my votes are still going to Awakening Anna like last year. Not quite sure about her chances this year but I would still be happy if she makes top 10 at least. Maybe if I come across another computer I'll throw votes at Nyna, Palla, Linde, A!Tiki and Azura as well but Anna takes priority over any other character.

[Sentinel07]

I honestly think Lysithea has a very strong chance to get more votes than Edelgard. By far one of the most used characters and seems to be relatively free of controversy.

Also, not being in the game yet helps.

[DefyingFates]

42 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

However, I would still wager that the majority of the second half votes for her came from players who would have otherwise voted for characters below her.

Fair enough. In any case I wonder if a 3H-heavy midterm will be enough to prompt another surge on the level we got with Veronica back then...

[Othin]

The four winners being the three 3H leaders and Plumeria would be interesting, and that seems more likely to me than all four spots going to 3H characters, but that's still a case of all four spots going to characters introduced in the past six months. Even with that adding up to a broader fanbase than just 3H fans, I'm still not entirely sure it'd work out.

That said - 3H seems a lot less controversial than the 3DS games, none of those characters have any alts yet, and it seems like fans of older games are a lot less on edge this time around. So maybe there really won't be anything to change that and any changes after the midterms will end up as just those four rallying more support to themselves to maintain their positions and fight over the first place spots. Or rallying into that lineup in the first place - Plumeria could be well poised to benefit from midterm rallying.

I'm getting to like the sound of that outcome. It'd be nice to have all three house leaders get their brave versions in the same year - and as a Verdant Wind player, I'd certainly prefer it for Claude to not get left out. And I'm getting curious about what they'd do with Plumeria as a brave hero. I hope Eirika and Marth get brave versions at some point, but I'm not in a hurry - I already have three versions of each, anyway. (And Legendary Eirika and Winter Marth are both units I'd like to pick up at some point as well.)

[Sunwoo]

What I'd like is for Eirika and Marth to place within top two. I think they're overdue for one.

The characters I'd actually like to win CYL aren't even in the game and don't have a shot, especially with all the 3H coming in this year. Aside from Eirika and Marth, the only other character I like who has a shot is Reinhardt, but he's been falling a bit every year after his peak in CYL2 and he's not going to make it this year with Dmitri and Claude and Marth in front of him. Maybe CYL5 if I'm extremely lucky.

Edelgard is almost certainly likely to place top 2, also. Yeah, she's controversial, but Camilla was too and she still scored highly all the years she was eligible.

Edited January 12, 2020 by Sunwoo

[DefyingFates]

1 hour ago, Othin said:

The four winners being the three 3H leaders and Plumeria would be interesting

I don't want to start a flamewar three pages into the thread, so I'll just say that I hate the idea of Plumeria winning after just being introduced. I've said before that I wish CYL was about character depth and not just popularity, so naturally someone winning simply for fanservice and memes is the exact opposite of what I want to see. (I personally think Plumeria has potential, but look anywhere in the community at large and it's always those two things - especially the first - that are brought up when people sing her praises.)

59 minutes ago, Sunwoo said:

What I'd like is for Eirika and Marth to place within top two. I think they're overdue for one.

Edelgard is almost certainly likely to place top 2, also. Yeah, she's controversial, but Camilla was too and she still scored highly all the years she was eligible.

Now this I agree with 100%. A mix of 3H and older Lords would be perfect!

Edited January 12, 2020 by DefyingFates

[Stroud]

2 hours ago, Thane said:

Oh yeah. New OC's popularity has been surprisingly strong before, and Plumeria already has both people's sympathy and a bunch of memes. I mean, her fate is kind of messed up so if I didn't have to support my low tier favorites (Brave Cynthia 2035!) I'd consider throwing her a sympathy vote.

Oh yeah, I can see it already. But overall I will go the same route. Look if one of my most wanted unlikely units needs some support to be seen at least. After knowing halfway what is popular among the units on the top I might push one of the units there if its one I like. Overall I will go for Reina and Rinkah. I am even tending to give Reina some more votes, because I have the feeling that Rinkah might already be in preparing for the next months. And there is also Tatiana..

Personally I might see that Plumeria overshadows Loki this time. And there is also Thor on the list. Thor could be a dark horse here. On the other hand at least from what I read not that many are urging her to come out. And Book 4 has shoved her out of talk even more. 

Overall my take is that as long as the top characters are unknown people vote more likely regarding depth. As soon as the top scoring units are out you just have to decide and there it might lose on depth. Also I think some just love to see Insys being forced to push out some OC,s already they may have intended to keep away. Don't we also have Bruno on the list. While he had is Alt, he still is someone people want to see more. Funny enough, if Plumeria really gets the votes. And considering how well the timing is with her "outing" and background information we got it would feel like Insys played us. The votes are impersonating the desire. But enough. I will refrain from mentioning her too much.  

 

Edited January 12, 2020 by Stroud

[Othin]

I think there have definitely been situations where a character having fewer alts causes them to beat a character with more alts that they wouldn't beat with the same number. For example, look at Alm, Eliwood, and Marth. Marth stomped both Alm and Eliwood on CYL2, where they each had a single version (and on CYL1, although Alm's score was way lower then because SOV hadn't released yet) but on CYL3, they both scored way higher. I don't think Alm or Eliwood could have overtaken Marth with the same number of versions, but by then, Marth had three versions while Eliwood had two and Alm had one.

Alts also most likely contributed to why Chrom dropped off the top spots after CYL1. The first time around, he was the 8th highest rated male character (or 9th, if we combine Marth's votes) but in CYL2, he dropped down to 15th. At the time of CYL2, he was one of the few characters on the ballot with three versions. Excluding the characters new or functionally new to the ballot in CYL2 (Veronica, Loki, Alm, Celica, and Reinhardt), the characters who overtook Chrom were Ephraim, FE1 Marth, Eirika, Azura, Nino, Micaiah, and Corrin F. Four characters who only had one version at the time, two who had two (or gained their second during voting, in Eirika's case) and only one (Azura) who had three. By the time of CYL3, he had a fourth version, but by then, that didn't stand out as much, and he started climbing back up the rankings, re-overtaking several of those characters who also got alts during that timeframe. (It seems to me that when looking at how a given number of alts affects perception of a character, the difference between three versions and one or two is bigger than the difference between four versions and two or three.)

In fact, of the four CYL1 runner-ups (Tharja, Hector, Camilla, and Chrom), the only one who won CYL2 is Hector, the one of those four who didn't get any alts until after CYL2's voting. So far, Camilla is the only character who made it into the CYL finals with 3+ versions at all, and she seems to be a bit of an anomaly. Meanwhile, Eliwood and Micaiah, the only other two who made it into a CYL finals with any alts, had seasonal alts rather than legendary or New Heroes alts. As more alts get released over time, those distinctions will get less sustainable, and perhaps alts further in the past will get less relevant. But I do think those tendencies may be set to play into CYL4.

[Silverly]

2 hours ago, SockPuppet said:

I think a lot of people are underrating Female Byleth. She ALWAYS places high in popularity polls, sometimes even beating Edelgard herself. I have a feeling she’s going to win 🙃

 

So I’m not the only one who feels this way!

I personally think Byleth is being slept on real hard, and feel she’s actually the silent majority of the 3H females. 

[daisy jane]

2 minutes ago, Silverly said:

So I’m not the only one who feels this way!

I personally think Byleth is being slept on real hard, and feel she’s actually the silent majority of the 3H females. 

She could. (it's really weird toobecause i LOVE her (please come to me, +spd/-res or neutral!),) - not to mention sothis could. 

I think a lot of people are going that Edlegard could win because she's controversial- but she's not. (nor do i think if she doesn't win it's due to hatred or anything like that). now I personally don't "Like" her. but i think for what she is she is amazing. and before the game i was prepared to love her lol. (and i hated Dimitri so there we go. gameplay gotta love it lol). 

though having a CYL Dancer would be amazing. gimme gimme.

[Sunwoo]

In all honesty I'm hoping none of the avatars win because none of them are really compelling characters in general. If I absolutely had to pick any avatar to win CYL, I'd rather go with Robin because all of their versions have become underwhelming (and the one that still stands out is technically Grima, not Robin) and the Robins were really screwed over with their awful stats from the beginning. Byleth, on the other hand, is still stupidly good even today and I'd be surprised if they don't get a spoiler alt later on that's even more stupidly broken.

[Ice Dragon]

2 minutes ago, Othin said:

Alts also most likely contributed to why Chrom dropped off the top spots after CYL1.

In fact, of the four CYL1 runner-ups (Tharja, Hector, Camilla, and Chrom), the only one who won CYL2 is Hector, the one of those four who didn't get any alts until after CYL2's voting.

You're completely ignoring the fact that CYL 1 had a completely different demographic than every CYL after that.

Heroes hadn't yet released when CYL 1 occurred, meaning a much higher percentage of the voter base would have been people who have only had contact with Fire Emblem through Awakening, Fates, and Super Smash Bros.

On the other hand, CYL 2 occurred almost a year after Heroes was released. Those players are the ones that would have been more likely to leave the player base in that span, and the ones that stayed would have gotten more exposure to characters from earlier games in the series.

Changes in voting results between CYL 1 and CYL 2 are more of a result of a change in voter demographics and not as much of a result of a change in character popularity (except for those that gained popularity due to exposure in Heroes).

[Gregster101]

2 hours ago, Lewyn said:

Plumeria has a good chance, OCs do real well in these polls, and she is going to draw a ton of fans.  3H is popular and new, so expect one male and one female to make it probably.  Sothis might be real popular, she got the only 3H seasonal thusfar.  

I'll try to push FE4 characters in my votes that haven't made it yet.  Erinys, Brigid, Lex, Oifeye, etc.  If they have mid term votes I will likely pull for Pulmeria if she has a real chance.

Do you mind adding Patty to that list? XP

[DefyingFates]

22 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

On the other hand, CYL 2 occurred almost a year after Heroes was released. Those players are the ones that would have been more likely to leave the player base in that span, and the ones that stayed would have gotten more exposure to characters from earlier games in the series.

Changes in voting results between CYL 1 and CYL 2 are more of a result of a change in voter demographics and not as much of a result of a change in character popularity (except for those that gained popularity due to exposure in Heroes).

Yep. While 3H may bring a surge of new voters (especially if VAs and YouTubers get involved), CYL has been pretty centred on FEH's playerbase, which informs the results.

Edited January 12, 2020 by DefyingFates

[trainer_derp]

I think people are seriously overrating the the Book 4 OCs. Veronica, Bruno, and Loki had been in the story for some time before they got into the top 10 and Lif was popular because he was radically different from your usual FE design (in an edgy way), while the faeries elves look like your average JRPG girl + wings and wouldn't look out of place in some generic harem anime. Honestly, I don't see any of these three breaking even the top 20.

[Ice Dragon]

6 minutes ago, trainer_derp said:

and Lif was popular because he was radically different from your usual FE design (in an edgy way), while the faeries elves look like your average JRPG girl + wings and wouldn't look out of place in some generic harem anime.

"Your average JRPG girl with wings that doesn't look out of place in some generic harem anime" is radically different from your usual FE design.