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XRay

FEH Revenue Drop!!!

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14 minutes ago, Etheus said:

The fact that this is designed as a month to month purchase with no longer term discounted option (which it should totally have) makes it seem as though they intend for people to purchase it on months they are interested in.

If they wanted to do it that way, it would have been better to just sell the Respendent (sic) Heroes and forget the QoL stuff. The former is a standard perk for this kind of game, including the latter just turned people off.

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9 minutes ago, XRay said:

They clearly want players to purchase continuously though, since it automatically renews every month.

In short, a steady stream of revenue. What would keep FEH from capitalizing on this idea, in my mind's eye, is the amount of meat on this proverbial bone: it's not enough for the target audience.

Didn't stop me from subscribing, though. I never had the OG Lyn. And I might check back in on Resplendent versions of Gen 1 faves.

Edited by Karimlan

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25 minutes ago, XRay said:

I personally do not like it locked behind a monthly paywall either. However, that is really the only thing that would make the subscription worth subscribing to without a break. Depending on how cheap Resplendent Heroes are, players could possibly save money by subscribing one month per year and buy all the past Resplendent Heroes and then unsubscribe again.

There is really nothing else that entices a player to keep subscribing continuously.

All they'd need to do to make that not save money is have past Resplendents cost half the price of a month's subscription or more. Which seems likely. 

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23 minutes ago, Othin said:

All they'd need to do to make that not save money is have past Resplendents cost half the price of a month's subscription or more. Which seems likely. 

A good way to capitalize on that would be to make the player able to purchase multiple copies of a Resplendent version of a character.

Take Lyn for example. Buying 11 of her to +10 her would be around 110$ which seems like a lot of money. Then you remember the 140 orb pack is $75 which if you're lucky would get you one or two merges on a Lyn banner. Would be a pretty fantastic way to get people to pay to +10 their favorite characters. Bumping the price down to $5 for a Lyn merge and... honestly? I may pay $60 to +10 Lyn. Compared to what I'd have to pay to pull her? It's actually somewhat reasonable despite FEH's generally horrible prices. Orbs in general should be half the price they currently are, but that's just my opinion.

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1 hour ago, Baldrick said:

If they wanted to do it that way, it would have been better to just sell the Respendent (sic) Heroes and forget the QoL stuff. The former is a standard perk for this kind of game, including the latter just turned people off.

That too. I think they might have done better if they break the subscription into smaller pieces and sell those smaller pieces in conjunction with the subscription. That way, it will give the subscription something to compare against and have it be perceived as having a decent value. Right now, it is you either pay for everything and get everything, or pay nothing and get nothing, and without enough context surrounding it, $10 per month might seem a bit too high for low spenders.

This is just a sample idea:
$3 Subscription: Expanded Summoner Support 2 Slots Total
$5 Subscription: Expanded Summoner Support 3 Slots Total, Feh Pass Quests
$9.50 Subscription: Default
$100 Year Long Subscription: Cheaper monthly price and maybe with extra goodies thrown in.
$2 Resplendent Hero Stat Boost
$2 Resplendent Hero Outfit
$2 Resplendent Hero Copy
$5 Resplendent Hero Full Package

With the lower prices framing the context of the monthly subscription, it would entice low spenders to consider getting the $9.50 monthly subscription or even the year long subscription. And for really low spenders who really cannot afford the $9.50 per month, they can still contribute to Hero's revenue through piecemeal purchases of the things they want most. For example, if a really low spender already has a Lyn and they just want the stat boost, getting $2 out of them is better than having them ignore Feh Pass and get nothing.

The only problem with this idea is that while more players will spend, there is a chance that the higher number of spenders is not enough to outweigh the decline in revenue per player. For example, let us say 10 players pay for the Feh Pass under the current system, so that is $95 per month in revenue; under the new system maybe there will be 15 players who spend, but 5 of them only go for the $5 subscription and another 5 only went for the stat boost, and that would then total to $82.50 per month in revenue. That is over a 10% decline in revenue despite a 50% increase in spenders.

1 hour ago, Othin said:

All they'd need to do to make that not save money is have past Resplendents cost half the price of a month's subscription or more. Which seems likely. 

That is true. Seems most likely.

1 hour ago, Zeo said:

A good way to capitalize on that would be to make the player able to purchase multiple copies of a Resplendent version of a character.

Take Lyn for example. Buying 11 of her to +10 her would be around 110$ which seems like a lot of money. Then you remember the 140 orb pack is $75 which if you're lucky would get you one or two merges on a Lyn banner. Would be a pretty fantastic way to get people to pay to +10 their favorite characters. Bumping the price down to $5 for a Lyn merge and... honestly? I may pay $60 to +10 Lyn. Compared to what I'd have to pay to pull her? It's actually somewhat reasonable despite FEH's generally horrible prices. Orbs in general should be half the price they currently are, but that's just my opinion.

There is chance that might cannibalize Orb sales during time when it has a Weekly Revival Focus featuring a 5* exclusive Resplendent Hero, although it should be fine for 3*/4* Heroes since I do not think players would pay Orbs trying to get those. However, if enough players spend, then that might offset the loss on Orb sales.

Edited by XRay

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29 minutes ago, XRay said:

The only problem with this idea is that while more players will spend, there is a chance that the higher number of spenders is not enough to outweigh the decline in revenue per player. For example, let us say 10 players pay for the Feh Pass under the current system, so that is $95 per month in revenue; under the new system maybe there will be 15 players who spend, but 5 of them only go for the $5 subscription and another 5 only went for the stat boost, and that would then total to $82.50 per month in revenue. That is over a 10% decline in revenue despite a 50% increase in spenders.

Without interviewing every Heroes player and finding the maximum they're willing to pay, any pricing model runs the risk of being suboptimal in terms of profit. But more players spending is definitely better than less; even if they spend less money on average, it's more people committed enough to spend something, and so be less likely to quit.

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2 hours ago, Baldrick said:

Without interviewing every Heroes player and finding the maximum they're willing to pay, any pricing model runs the risk of being suboptimal in terms of profit. But more players spending is definitely better than less; even if they spend less money on average, it's more people committed enough to spend something, and so be less likely to quit.

It is true that there will always be a risk, and they have to take some risk eventually.

We as outsiders really do not have enough data on sales to really say for certain whether Intelligent Systems is better off expanding their customer base or consolidating on existing spenders, but I hope Intelligent Systems has that data and do what is financially right.

I really want to say lower prices is the way to reverse the decline, but I just do not know for certain. If they can offer cheaper prices and make Heroes more new player friendly, I hope that would be enough to turn it around.

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6 minutes ago, XRay said:

I really want to say lower prices is the way to reverse the decline, but I just do not know for certain. If they can offer cheaper prices and make Heroes more new player friendly, I hope that would be enough to turn it around.

Revamp the pull system - such that there's both a pity option (basically, guaranteed 5* after X pulls, maybe even make it so the player can choose which banner unit, redeemable once a banner) on top of the rising percentage rate.  Someone like me doesn't care about what breaks them, so the pity system would be irrelevant.  Those that are looking for a specific character may pull beyond their budget just to get one of that character.

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3 minutes ago, eclipse said:

Revamp the pull system - such that there's both a pity option (basically, guaranteed 5* after X pulls, maybe even make it so the player can choose which banner unit, redeemable once a banner) on top of the rising percentage rate.  Someone like me doesn't care about what breaks them, so the pity system would be irrelevant.  Those that are looking for a specific character may pull beyond their budget just to get one of that character.

Yeah, that sounds like a nice idea too. They can always limited it to one or two guaranteed 5* per Focus to test things out first, or just say that it is a special deal just for certain Foci to see how it affects revenue.

I think even for Feh Pass, they can also offer a trial period or a dumb downed version of the regular subscription for a limited time during special holidays. It is a good excuse to generate some goodwill back and to see if the higher number of players spending is enough to offset the lower spending per spender.

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I hope they are not so shortsighted (or deep under investor pressure) that they just scare everybody off by making things all the more predatory and discouraging. The way FEH pass is constantly rubbed in your face until you get it can really be annoying. Trying to pressure people into spending will likely make many people all the more against the idea of spending anything at all; The key to making more would be finding a way to encourage spending without pressure.

Something I find to be ironic is the fact that going in the opposite direction of what many investors view as the profitable path may well be the thing that could potentially be more profitable and long lasting. I was having a long discussion with some friends that are mostly F2P about what could encourage them to spend more on this game, and the general consensus was, "a means of getting characters I want for sure without running the risk of throwing money away via virtual gambling". Many of them have only ever spent money on one thing: the Black Knight pack. That being because they knew exactly what they were getting and it felt worth the price. The obvious problem with giving people that sort of option for all characters is the fact that then a person wouldn't have to risk indefinite amounts of money to achieve something, and thus it would all come down whether or not the amount of people that are encouraged to buy their guaranteed units would more than compensate for the "whales" that would no longer need to go as far as spending a thousand dollars to +10 a single unit. However, a bit of innovation might be able to find a balance where they could keep the "whales" spending while encouraging others to spend here and there.

One idea that came up was the concept of something like a one-time-use item you could buy for a set price (maybe $20 would be good all things considered) that could work like this: you can use this item once and only once per banner in order to summon a neutral 5 star focus unit of your choosing from that banner. What effect would this have on people's spending habits? A lot of folks like my friends would find it to be something worth buying now and then when there is a character they like, so it could encourage many non-spenders to spend a bit here and there. For somebody like me (your local "whale" that's into collecting every unit in the game lol) it probably would not effect the amount I spend too much; I might save a bit going after new units, but I would be constantly buying this item to go after rerun units whose banners I would otherwise just ignore after the free pull since my priority has always been saving for the new units and thus relying on the pity breakers of new banners to get other desired units in the long term (I'd probably be buying one for nearly every rerun banner, so I think I might ultimately be spending a lot more as a result lol). And then you have the "leviathan" who spends ten thousand dollars a month or more on this game (There is one guy on my friend list that is always in the top spots of Aether Raids and Mjolnir's Strikes; I used to think he just +10ed every mythic hero which would already cost a fortune, but he doesn't stop there, he +10s every damn unit in the freaking game! Less than a day after a new banner starts I'll see +10 copies of those units entering my castle all from him! He must spend well over a thousand dollars a week on this game! Good lord! lmao), and these folks will hardly save any money at all; If you wish to +10 every unit on a banner, you will need to summon 33/44 focus units, and getting one single guaranteed unit will barely change anything (maybe save fifty bucks if lucky, which will be more than compensated by the people that would otherwise not spend money).

Hopefully they can think up a good concepts like that to find the right balance to keep things profitable but still enjoyable. Or maybe they'll just go the shareholder route and do crap like introduce even bigger P2W modes, start running so many banners people lose their minds, and hide even bigger QOL features that should have been there from the start behind even bigger paywalls... time will tell.

Edited by Namero

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Speaking about the summoning system and what they could make better imo:

Higher focus on focus units lower focus on non focus units. A high pity rate broken by Thea for example is maddening - if that is the result of paid orbs its even worse.

We get a full circle of 5* units after 120 pulls - that 480 - 600 orbs. Its a failsafe I never heard anyone ever achieved. A guarantueed 5* "in the circle" after 20 summons would be better. 

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Hope the game doesn't get much P2W. many gacha games Pretty much lost all of their playerbase when that happens wich means the game going down.

I've heard a missing resplendid hero costing 5$. so 15$ if you did miss 1 single replendid hero since you need a subscription to buy it.

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1 hour ago, Ephraimx said:

Hope the game doesn't get much P2W. many gacha games Pretty much lost all of their playerbase when that happens wich means the game going down.

I've heard a missing resplendid hero costing 5$. so 15$ if you did miss 1 single replendid hero since you need a subscription to buy it.

Not too bad, if u just need a select few 

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Speaking of the past Resplendent Hero pricing, they've confirmed it at $4.99 - so just over half the price of the pass. That's about as low as I thought they might go, I was ready to believe it might be close to the full price for a month.

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@Othin: where did they confirm that?

Given that we get two Resplendent Heroes per one FEH Pass run, you could argue that IS doesn't place the QoL upgrades in too high a regard (but high enough to make sure players pay for it).

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3 hours ago, Karimlan said:

@Othin: where did they confirm that?

Given that we get two Resplendent Heroes per one FEH Pass run, you could argue that IS doesn't place the QoL upgrades in too high a regard (but high enough to make sure players pay for it).

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