FEH Pass and what went wrong

[Hilda]

3 hours ago, XRay said:

If mobile games are really that cheap to develop and maintain, then we would not see a lot of them getting shut down and discontinued after a few years. Unless someone can find Nintendo's financial report that details their mobile operations, I think it is too soon for us to assume that is undoubtedly the case that they are having massive profit margins. With how horribly they monetized all their other mobile games and how bad Feh Pass was announced, if I was an investor and putting my money on the line, I would not assume Nintendo is doing well in their mobile operations.

actually mobile games are cheap to develop and maintain. Depends what quality you are striving though, one of the reason the mobile market gets flooded with games. Fire Emblem Heroes doesnt cost much investment compared to the amount of revenue its currently pulling in.

Look at FFXI (yes the really old one), its being maintained with a low population and still pulls in great revenue and thats for a subscription based MMO. I think you are overestimating the amount of work that goes into FEH

[Endriu]

12 minutes ago, Hilda said:

actually mobile games are cheap to develop and maintain. Depends what quality you are striving though, one of the reason the mobile market gets flooded with games. Fire Emblem Heroes doesnt cost much investment compared to the amount of revenue its currently pulling in.

Look at FFXI (yes the really old one), its being maintained with a low population and still pulls in great revenue and thats for a subscription based MMO. I think you are overestimating the amount of work that goes into FEH

Exactly my point.

Gacha games are low investment huge income. That's what publishers got used to and that's why we have premium currency only whales can/want afford and relatively little meaningful pve content. Gacha games are a playground where whales can meet and comepete against each other. Only feh isn't that interesting for whales as f2p can score relatively high. There are games where pure strength (which is powered up through whaling) and less strategy wins and f2p progress is gated so they barely have a chance (latest ffbe game for example).

Maybe thats why low spenders are being targetted with the feh pass? Whales no longer support the game?

Edited February 13, 2020 by Endriu

[Hilda]

8 minutes ago, Endriu said:

Exactly my point.

Gacha games are low investment huge income. That's what publishers got used to and that's why we have premium currency only whales can/want afford and relatively little meaningful pve content. Gacha games are a playground where whales can meet and comepete against each other. Only feh isn't that interesting for whales as f2p can score relatively high. There are games where pure strength (which is powered up through whaling) and less strategy wins and f2p progress is gated so they barely have a chance (latest ffbe game for example).

Maybe thats why low spenders are being targetted with the feh pass? Whales no longer support the game?

Actually its targetting both. Resplendend heroes will prolly be the most +10 (or close to) heroes across the board and the stat boost might make them relevant for whales agian and quests offer more ressources to fully invest into +10 with dew and so on. Meanwhile low spenders get a free unit they might not have.

[Lemmy]

17 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

Elemental matching is something that can only generate revenue for a limited period of time. Once players have saturated their barracks, they no longer need to pull for more characters specifically for the purpose of elemental matching.

Right now, they're using Aether Raids and Mjolnir's Strike for Mythic Heroes, but Mythic Heroes only come every other month and Aether Raids scoring scales poorly with merges, so pretty much every Mythic Hero (and Legendary Hero) from here on out is going to be selling largely on their merits as a unit rather than their element.

I’m more curious on how many indulged in the first place, I put together a team for gardens, but I never bothered with the competitive modes, and gardens itself fell out of favor.

[XRay]

2 hours ago, Hilda said:

Fire Emblem Heroes doesnt cost much investment compared to the amount of revenue its currently pulling in.

We do not really know that. If we just factor in the direct costs to make and maintain the game, like man hours and server costs, it might not cost much relative to traditional games. If we factor in how a business is run in real life, there are many indirect/overhead costs that goes into making a product, and those costs are not necessarily cheap. Indirect costs are things like rent, equipment, and administration, and those costs are difficult to assign to a specific product, unlike labor and raw materials.

For example, did Nintendo/Intelligent Systems open a mobile operations office instead of using existing office space? If they did, that would add a significant amount of cost to to the development of their mobile games since that cost is "hidden," as it usually is not attributed to a single game (unless the whole entire office is just dedicated to Heroes, then that is pretty easy to assign to just Heroes). That cost might also be further obscured since it may be split amongst multiple products (Mario Run, Dragalia Lost, etc.). If they are using a new office space, that also usually means hiring new people, equipement, furniture, etc. and that is not exactly cheap.

[Hilda]

19 minutes ago, XRay said:

We do not really know that. If we just factor in the direct costs to make and maintain the game, like man hours and server costs, it might not cost much relative to traditional games. If we factor in how a business is run in real life, there are many indirect/overhead costs that goes into making a product, and those costs are not necessarily cheap. Indirect costs are things like rent, equipment, and administration, and those costs are difficult to assign to a specific product, unlike labor and raw materials.

For example, did Nintendo/Intelligent Systems open a mobile operations office instead of using existing office space? If they did, that would add a significant amount of cost to to the development of their mobile games since that cost is "hidden," as it usually is not attributed to a single game (unless the whole entire office is just dedicated to Heroes, then that is pretty easy to assign to just Heroes). That cost might also be further obscured since it may be split amongst multiple products (Mario Run, Dragalia Lost, etc.). If they are using a new office space, that also usually means hiring new people, equipement, furniture, etc. and that is not exactly cheap.

Please. Ressources are usually shared inside a company like Nintendo, your are vastly exaggerating the cost. We arent talking about a developer thats just starting.

Square Enix for example doesnt run Customer Support for FFXI and FFXIV seperate, they are consolidated to reduce the cost immensely for FFXI (the older game). Meanwhile FFXI is a very small group of developers and if they need something new for a new update they can outsource Music/Modelling/Artwork to an existing Division inside SquareEnix to handle it.

I am pretty sure Nintendo handles stuff the same way.

[XRay]

2 minutes ago, Hilda said:

I am pretty sure Nintendo handles stuff the same way.

I hope I am just exaggerating, but Nintendo is pretty new to mobile development and we have literally no clue on how that division is run.

[Hilda]

1 minute ago, XRay said:

I hope I am just exaggerating, but Nintendo is pretty new to mobile development and we have literally no clue on how that division is run.

By now pretty efficient (3.Year). Remember for a Starting company the Costshare % Value would be higher resulting in less Net profit, but for a House like Nintendo with allready so many existing ressources its really low (or should be, unless they are total baffoons) which measn the Net Profit for FEH is very high even if Sales/Revenue droped and the cost to maintain FEH and keep it going should be fairly low.

[Othin]

Thinking about potential future Resplendent Heroes - here's the pre-CYL1 units that already have at least one alt:

• 3-4*: Caeda, Camilla, Catria, Cecilia, Chrom, Cordelia, Corrin M, Corrin F, Eliwood, Fae, Felicia, Frederick, Henry, Jakob, Kagero, Lilina, Lissa, Marth, Niles, Nino, Nowi, Olivia, Palla, Robin M, Roy, Sakura, Tharja, Tiki A, Eirika, Reinhardt, Soren, Titania
• 5*: Azura, Elise, Hector, Hinoka, Leo, Linde, Lucina, Lyn, Ryoma, Takumi, Tiki Y, Ephraim, Julia, Olwen, Sanaki, Jaffar, Ninian, Alm, Faye, Ike, Mist, Celica, Genny, Delthea, Innes, Tana
• Free: Robin F, Ursula, Xander, Berkut

Excluding Lyn and Cordelia, that leaves 31 common units and 24 rare units, plus potentially another 4 free units. Some of these do not seem likely to get Resplendent versions, but there are also some pre-CYL1 units that have no alts yet but seem plenty viable to monetize further (through Resplendent versions, regular alts, or both), so I'd say the actual number of potential pre-CYL1 Resplendent units is still enough that they could feasibly make it a full two years without starting to dip into units from Gen 2 or later.

That doesn't mean that will, but they could. And I certainly hope they do, because if they move to higher-stat units faster, the Resplendent stat boosts get that much more obnoxious.

Edited February 14, 2020 by Othin

[Etrurian emperor]

On 2/13/2020 at 6:51 PM, Ice Dragon said:

Original characters cannot significantly slow the depletion of the pool of characters because players come to this game for characters from the main series, not for original characters.

I used to think that but after seeing Lif and lewd fairy instantly shoot to the top of the popularity poll before they even became real characters I'm not so sure anymore. 

[Ice Dragon]

8 hours ago, Etrurian emperor said:

I used to think that but after seeing Lif and lewd fairy instantly shoot to the top of the popularity poll before they even became real characters I'm not so sure anymore. 

The problem is that depletion of characters from the existing pool is both a good thing and a bad thing. It's a good thing because players want to see their favorites get in the game if they aren't already in. It's a bad thing because there's nowhere else to go after that's done other than constant alts.

Adding original characters to the mix slows down the depleting of the pool, but also slows down the rate that characters get into the game. There's no way to slow down the depletion of the character pool while not slowing down the rate that characters get into the game because they are one and the same thing.

The player base would be up in arms if, say, even 1 new character every single month were replaced with a brand new original character.

[Baldrick]

47 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

It's a bad thing because there's nowhere else to go after that's done other than constant alts.

Is that a bad thing though? IMO, the problem with alts is that they slow down the rate at which new characters get added. If the character pool has been depleted, that isn't a problem. The fanbase in general tends to like alts as well.

[eclipse]

Does anyone have the stats on total unique characters in Heroes so far (so Azura + all her alts counts as one Azura)?  My gut tells me that we're looking at at least two years of new characters, straight, assuming every new banner has nothing but new characters. I'd like to verify this with math.

[MisterIceTeaPeach]

I have a generic question regarding this topic:

Is it normal nowadays or only a Nintendo thing that single DLCs are not offered anymore and the players are forced to buy / subscribe a called pass without knowing about the future content?

I made this bad experience in Smash Ultimate and I saw that Three Houses does not offer single DLCs either.

I wanted to bring it up since it really pisses me off since I am not willed to invest as much money for extra content about the potential content I do not know as I would do for a whole game.

Seeing Three Houses's pass for 25 € literally makes me laugh.

I can get complete Switch games for less and the main game does not cost much more either (40 €).

[SwordsDude]

7 hours ago, Falcom Knight said:

I have a generic question regarding this topic:

Is it normal nowadays or only a Nintendo thing that single DLCs are not offered anymore and the players are forced to buy / subscribe a called pass without knowing about the future content?

I made this bad experience in Smash Ultimate and I saw that Three Houses does not offer single DLCs either.

I wanted to bring it up since it really pisses me off since I am not willed to invest as much money for extra content about the potential content I do not know as I would do for a whole game.

Seeing Three Houses's pass for 25 € literally makes me laugh.

I can get complete Switch games for less and the main game does not cost much more either (40 €).

dlc became a mess starting from awakening. the dlc came close or surpassed the base game for seperate chapters wich in pretty much all cases where just fodder.

I miss the old days

Fire emblem path of radiance storyline  was a bit to long for one game so we got dlc it's called radiant dawn.

Why can't we go this route anymore, that way the added story line isn't extra fodder but actually a solid experience. dlc in a ton of cases is such bad value and especially in rpg's it's not to great. rpg's add stories that really feel like they tried to tape it onto the main story postgame it doesnt fit or is very meh just to make some extra cash, fanservice like hotsprings bathhouse dlc, easy equips and exp. yea right titles like radiant historia where so good with that dlc. it's trash and usually surpassing the base game in costs aswell. the extra content for such games is usually pretty forgettable.

BOTW dlc was actually pretty good but even than it kinda stings since all the dlc was done before the game was released. and now even small titles like luigi's mansion have dlc. the best case scenario is a sizable chunk of content for 20 to 30$ these days.

 

Edited February 15, 2020 by SwordsDude

[XRay]

53 minutes ago, SwordsDude said:

Why can't we go this route anymore, that way the added story line isn't extra fodder but actually a solid experience. dlc in a ton of cases is such bad value and especially in rpg's it's not to great. rpg's add stories that really feel like they tried to tape it onto the main story postgame it doesnt fit or is very meh just to make some extra cash, fanservice like hotsprings bathhouse dlc, easy equips and exp. yea right titles like radiant historia where so good with that dlc. it's trash and usually surpassing the base game in costs aswell. the extra content for such games is usually pretty forgettable.

Content costs money to make. The amount you pay is the experience you will get. If everything was included into the game, games will be much more expensive for customers and not everyone can afford those prices. And it makes no sense to lock out customers just because you cannot offer a more basic product for a lower price. Developers also have to eat and support their families, and sex sells. Just because you do not think DLCs add value to the game, that does not mean other paying customers share the same opinion as you. If you do not care about content in the DLCs, be glad you are not forced to pay for it since it does not come with the base game.

It would be like complaining about how a burger at a fast food place does not automatically come with a drink and fries, you have to pay extra for those items, and then also complain about how the drinks and fries are unhealthy. If all burgers automatically came with drinks and fries, the price will be much higher and people will then complain about how they just want to pay just for the burger and not the drinks and fries. If you do not like the drink and fries and you do not want to pay for it, no one is forcing you to buy it, so I do not really see the point in complaining about a product that you are not the target audience of to begin with.

Edited February 15, 2020 by XRay

[SwordsDude]

52 minutes ago, XRay said:

Content costs money to make. The amount you pay is the experience you will get. If everything was included into the game, games will be much more expensive for customers and not everyone can afford those prices. And it makes no sense to lock out customers just because you cannot offer a more basic product for a lower price. Developers also have to eat and support their families, and sex sells. Just because you do not think DLCs add value to the game, that does not mean other paying customers share the same opinion as you. If you do not care about content in the DLCs, be glad you are not forced to pay for it since it does not come with the base game.

It would be like complaining about how a burger at a fast food place does not automatically come with a drink and fries, you have to pay extra for those items, and then also complain about how the drinks and fries are unhealthy. If all burgers automatically came with drinks and fries, the price will be much higher and people will then complain about how they just want to pay just for the burger and not the drinks and fries. If you do not like the drink and fries and you do not want to pay for it, no one is forcing you to buy it, so I do not really see the point in complaining about a product that you are not the target audience of to begin with.

Fries and a drink add to the experience they aren't inferior they actully make the experience better. if where comparing food. if where talking botw okay this is a great example it had some legitmate good stuff in the dlc even it is a bit stingy to held the dlc back considering that it was done before the base game was released. if this was old Nintendo that dlc would have been in the base game. xenoblade 2 was yet again another great example of decent dlc

If I where to go to that fast food join again I would add those fries and a drink to my burger every time.

Now back to what most dlc is: added fodder even the added story lines in a ton of cases. 

You have an excellent burger but your going to buy some chicken nuggets with those on the side, problem is the chicken nuggets while alright werent that great and they did not add that much to the experience. in otherwords if I where to go to that fast food joint again. I'd stick with the burger and skip them nuggets. good dlc adds to the experience and isn't mediocre fodder

 

Back with actually game comparisons

First of all radiant dawn costed 60$ and it was at least 1 year or two later so everyone could join the party. I'd rather pay 60$ for an actual game in wich the story actually adds some value not to mention excellent gameplay. The money excuse isnt there dlc is paying more for less content. and mostly content that isnt even that good with very few exceptions. Only for the most die hard fans is it an option and even than they might feel a bit empty after playing it.

The dlc in all past fire emblem games where like fodder. awakening, valentia, fates. btw the bathhouse dlc etc isnt even that sexy it's a game after all if you really need it that badly commision some stuff from an artist or look some stuff up online. so that sex sells i don't buy it with dlc unless your in it for them lines.

the dlc in especially the 3ds titles was a total mess. trash lvl story some fan service some easy items surpassing the base game costs fantastic.

tree houses is maybe the best deal for a modern fe game dlc since it is only 25$ compared to the 3ds titles surpassing that value but even than it's an inflated price compared to the base game and the content isnt that notable. That's how dlc works I get that but it's a shame really.

 

2nd of all could you imagine games like mario galaxy 2 being dlc instead

Shorter development time means just a few added galaxies lesser content for an inflated price. that's what dlc does. less time to produce some additional product for an inflated price compared to the base game. 

Could you imagine radiant dawn actually being modern day dlc in path of radiance?

The story would absolutely suck and the content would be rushed. Radiant dawn could have been total garbage if they where to go the modern dlc route on that one. you would get way less. radiant dawn as dlc could have been a bad after taste instead of the excellent game that we luckily got when dlc was non existent for console games. 

 

Also games being more pricy if everything was included from the get go?

are the nes to ps2 and wii era a joke? how the *** did nintendo sony and xbox get this big in the first place. the old system wasnt a problem at all. Sure nowdays they smell more money but this system of additional revenue and being greedy to hold stuff back wasn't needed for nice profits.

Sure they need to make money but saying that dlc is essential to stay afloat is just being ignorant. literally every console generation was succesfull withouth dlc prior to the last 2 gens.

also gacha games are another lvl of bad in terms of value so dlc is god lvl of generous compared to that.

relying on whales to make a profit. that's just abusing some people to spend hundreds if not thousands on a very inflated experience. so a ton of people can enjoy the game for free. a dumbed down experience with some fan service but a free game nonetheless at the cost of the people with them spending problems. There is a reason why multiple countries are starting to ban games such as feh heroes. It's not a fair business strategy to rely on such people.

 

Nintendo had big succes with the nes snes and gameboy gba era

And do I need to remind you that nintendo's most profitable era by far was Nintendo ds and wii era with zero dlc at all

Ps2 and psp same thing

If game devs really want to gain more revenue stick with collectors editions or merchandice for those die hard fans imo.

Edited February 15, 2020 by SwordsDude

[NekoKnight]

In regards to the Free Merge giveaway idea for the FEH pass, one thing they could do is give it out but only for non 5* exclusives. Obviously that wouldn't be as enticing, but it probably wouldn't hurt IS' bottom line while helping out players who just aren't pulling their favorite low rarity unit. They could also tie 5* merge items to consistent subscription renewals. I don't know what would be a fair trade in subscription fees for a merge, but it would encourage players to be subscribed for long periods of time,which is better than people who would otherwise just pop in to grab resplendent heroes they like and canceling again.

[XRay]

42 minutes ago, SwordsDude said:

Shorter development time means just a few added galaxies lesser content for an inflated price. that's what dlc does. less time to produce some additional product for an inflated price compared to the base game.

42 minutes ago, SwordsDude said:

Also games being more pricy if everything was included from the get go?

Less time and resources to produce? Sure. At inflated prices? I doubt it.

How would you feel if a customer walks up to you one day and complains about how you are overpricing your services, and that your soda machine is total rip off because he can buy sodas cheaper at the dollar store and that your sodas are also contributing to the obesity of the nation? And that same customer also have no clue how much money goes into running a business and they do not consider that you also have a family to feed, bills to pay, and all your employees to take care of?

Inflation is also a thing. Base games that cost $60 20 years ago still cost $60 today. The price of base games effectively dropped by a third. Cost of living in most cities also did not drop by a third, if it dropped at all. I do not think developers should take a pay cut just for your entertainment.

42 minutes ago, SwordsDude said:

relying on whales to make a profit. that's just abusing some people to spend hundreds if not thousands on a very inflated experience. 

That would be like saying Gucci and Ferrari are abusing rich people by selling overpriced everyday items. Just because you do not think a $2,000 Gucci jacket is worth it does not mean it is not worth it to other people. If you do not think Lyn +10 with a pimped out skill kit is worth it, it does not mean she is not worth it to other people.

I could use the same argument against any of your purchasing habits and hobbies and say that those purchases and hobbies are price gouging and not worth it because they are not tailored for me.

Edited February 15, 2020 by XRay

[Othin]

9 hours ago, eclipse said:

Does anyone have the stats on total unique characters in Heroes so far (so Azura + all her alts counts as one Azura)?  My gut tells me that we're looking at at least two years of new characters, straight, assuming every new banner has nothing but new characters. I'd like to verify this with math.

The problem is that there are lots of questions of what does or doesn't count. Is Owain a different character compared to Odin? Do different gender versions of avatar characters (and their kids) count separately? Which cases of the same character appearing in multiple games count as separate, if any? What do you do with characters that have only appeared as seasonals, or as duo heroes, or as an evil dragon possessing the "real" character the unit counts as?

Personally, my preference is to ignore duplicate appearances of a character that have their votes counted together on CYL, and count other ambiguous cases as half a unit. So, for example, Shigure counted as 0.5 of a unit when his PA version released, then increased to a full unit when his regular version showed up, so the regular version also counted as 0.5. This could have some odd results in circumstances where a character is ambiguous for multiple reasons - for example, PA Inigo already counts as 0.5 of a unit, but because Laslow is already in the game, regular Inigo would also have counted as 0.5, so if regular Inigo were added now, he wouldn't count for anything. That could be solved by counting doubly-questionable cases as just 0.25, I guess? I'm not sure whether or not that's worth the trouble. (Some other units it could affect include Elise, Young Zephiel, and Zelgius.)

I could use one of those counting methods to determine what we have so far, but if you're wondering what we have left to add, that could be even more complicated due to the matter of determining who to count in the first place.

[SwordsDude]

1 hour ago, XRay said:

That would be like saying Gucci and Ferrari are abusing rich people by selling overpriced everyday items. Just because you do not think a $2,000 Gucci jacket is worth it does not mean it is not worth it to other people. If you do not think Lyn +10 with a pimped out skill kit is worth it, it does not mean she is not worth it to other people.

I could use the same argument against any of your purchasing habits and hobbies and say that those purchases and hobbies are price gouging and not worth it because they are not tailored for me.

If you wanted to get rid of that ferrari you would get a sizable chunk of your money back. heck most versions of a ferrari are only sold to a limited amount of people that the 2nd hand price surpasses the retail price. 

also if you where to buy those cars 2nd hand unless you demolish them you'll gain pretty much all your money back.

gucchi lowers in price 2nd hand but yet again you'll gain some money back. at the end of the day in both those cases you purchases some valuable raw materials in combination of craftmanship. quality had it's price. and while you could buy a ton of nice cars for the same money. it doesnt have that ferrari quality. You want something of the same quality your going to spend just as much on a different brand like the lambogini.

If where talking raw materials in a ferrari or lambo them profit margins arent as big as you might think that in the combination with the craftmanship the profit margin is lower than what one would expect them car parts are legit pricy to make. this isnt like a restaurant in wich you literally pay 10 to 20% of the raw material costs and 80% for the service of not having to cook yourselves.

also comparing a ferrari. a car wich pretty much anyone in the world would want to have. with a motor wich is very pricy to make handmade interior and comfy seats. you can't be serious.

not the greatest comparison. if you where to spend 10.000$ in a gacha game you lost 10.000$ for some jepegs and voice lines you could buy a ton of sizable games for the same price. also if you where to sell an account in wich you invested 10K not only is it very hard to do. you'll get a mere fraction of your money back if you do it fast enough before some power creep wich devalues older stuff.

If where talking gacha games i would rather compare it to the more hardcore merhandice collectors however gacha games are a bit of a downgrade compared to that since you have nothing to show for. also a gacha game could end at any point. People can do with their money what they want but you can't convince me that pretty much anthing else has better value than some jpegs with some voice lines. especially if where talking games the sector in wich these gacha games are at. if you really needed some of them jepegs and voice lines for the majority all that stuff is there online.

Gacha games with mainly the fanservice I'd say it's a different kind of merchandice collecting with a bit of gameplay for especially the whales, since grinding ain't fun mainly collecting for those kinds of people. i guess you can't really call them games if you want to try to justify the price. like literally 5$ for 2 or 3 summons.

 

Also your quote in terms of inflation

 

Inflation is also a thing. Base games that cost $60 20 years ago still cost $60 today. The price of base games effectively dropped by a third. Cost of living in most cities also did not drop by a third, if it dropped at all. I do not think developers should take a pay cut just for your entertainment.

20 years ago you say? them most profitable wii era was until 2011 ds era even until 2012 with them big releases. that's 7 to 8 years.

or what about mario odyssey why aren't they bankrupped yet it didnt have any dlc at all on switch. OMG games need dlc to make a profit. that was a big investment title.

also most wii u and 3ds titles had no dlc at all especially the big titles like mario kart 7 so in other words especially for nintendo it was literally just a few years ago

Mainly switch titles have dlc. wii u barely had any dlc at all with smash bros being that exception

also if where talking FE 3 houses most games where on handheld for 40$ so they increased it by 20$ since it is a console game. that's an increase of 50%. inflation is not 50% for even 10 or 15 years. your overestimating it a bit. the grapics in tree houses are nothing to write home about so let's not pretend that it was a big budget title. it's probably one of the weakest looking switch games. only surpassing stuff like pokemon sword & shield.

also if where talking price cuts the amount of game sales determine if a game is profitable or not. the purchase price of a game is irrelevant.

I could charge 1000$ for a game but if not enough people are buying it the game will be a total flop.

Last time i checked classic Fire emblem games had sales ranging from 50 to only 300ish K copies worldwide they had mediocre sales.

Fire emblem awakening sold 2million + and fates and tree houses are around the 3 million copy mark

So especially in the case of fire emblem I highly doubt the inflation was an issue here. those past games even at just a couple hundred K where however still profitable enough to keep it going lol. 10+ games before awakening

also speaking of inflation Nintendo games are the least affected by this. if you go to buy a game at any other console that isnt nintendo the games retail price of 60$ drop so fast after just 1 month to like 30$ or less even brand new in stores. very few games stay pricy on say the ps4 they drop fast. nintendo years later for a ton of games just 50 or 60$

Edited February 15, 2020 by SwordsDude

[Othin]

6 hours ago, Othin said:

The problem is that there are lots of questions of what does or doesn't count. Is Owain a different character compared to Odin? Do different gender versions of avatar characters (and their kids) count separately? Which cases of the same character appearing in multiple games count as separate, if any? What do you do with characters that have only appeared as seasonals, or as duo heroes, or as an evil dragon possessing the "real" character the unit counts as?

Personally, my preference is to ignore duplicate appearances of a character that have their votes counted together on CYL, and count other ambiguous cases as half a unit. So, for example, Shigure counted as 0.5 of a unit when his PA version released, then increased to a full unit when his regular version showed up, so the regular version also counted as 0.5. This could have some odd results in circumstances where a character is ambiguous for multiple reasons - for example, PA Inigo already counts as 0.5 of a unit, but because Laslow is already in the game, regular Inigo would also have counted as 0.5, so if regular Inigo were added now, he wouldn't count for anything. That could be solved by counting doubly-questionable cases as just 0.25, I guess? I'm not sure whether or not that's worth the trouble. (Some other units it could affect include Elise, Young Zephiel, and Zelgius.)

I could use one of those counting methods to determine what we have so far, but if you're wondering what we have left to add, that could be even more complicated due to the matter of determining who to count in the first place.

Alright, let's take a crack at this. I'll use the 0.25 method because I can. Brackets denote counting for 0.5, double brackets denote counting for 0.25.

• Launch: 88
  • 85 regular (Abel, Barst, Caeda, Cain, Catria, Draug, Est, Gordin, Jagen, Jeorge, Linde, Maria, Marth, Merric, Minerva, Ogma, Palla, Sheena, Tiki Y, Wrys, Bartre, Cecilia, Clarine, Fae, Fir, Gwendolyn, Lilina, Raigh, Roy, Shanna, Sophia, Eliwood, Florina, Hawkeye, Hector, Lyn, Matthew, Nino, Raven, Serra, Cherche, Chrom, Cordelia, Donnel, Frederick, Gaius, Henry, Lissa, Lon'qu, Lucina, Nowi, Olivia, Robin M, Stahl, Sully, Tharja, [Tiki A], Virion, Arthur, Azama, Azura, Beruka, Camilla, Corrin M, [Corrin F], Effie, Elise, Felicia, Gunter, Hana, Hinata, Hinoka, Jakob, Kagero, Laslow, Leo, Niles, Oboro, Odin, Peri, Ryoma, Saizo, Sakura, Selena, Subaki, Takumi)
  • 3 OCs (Alfonse, Anna, Sharena)
• Feb 17: 11.5 (Narcian, Julia, Seliph, Eirika, Ephraim, [Robin F], Eldigan, Lachesis, Olwen, Reinhardt, Klein, Sanaki)
• Mar 17: 8.5 (Ursula, Jaffar, Karel, Lucius, Ninian, Priscilla, Rebecca, Michalis, [Spring Xander])
• Apr 17: 10 (Navarre, Alm, Clair, Faye, Lukas, Zephiel, Ike, Mist, Sorin, Titania)
• May 17: 6 ([Xander], Boey, Celica, Genny, May, Lloyd, [Bride Charlotte])
• Jun 17: 7.5 (Camus, [Masked Marth], Athena, Katarina, Luke, Roderick, Legion, Clarisse)
• Jul 17: 8 (Tobin, Delthea, Gray, Leon, Mathilda, Saber, Sonya, Berkut)
• Aug 17: 6 (Clive, Amelia, Innes, Seth, Tana, Valter)
• Sep 17: 4.75 (Elincia, Nephenee, Oscar, Black Knight, [[PA Inigo]], [PA Shigure])
• Oct 17: 6 (Dierdre, Sigurd, Tailtiu, Arvis, Ayra, Arden)
• Nov 17: 5
  • 4 regular (Dorcas, Lute, Mia, Joshua)
  • 1 OC (Fjorm)
• Dec 17: 5
  • 4 regular (Rhajat, Siegbert, Shiro, Soleil)
  • 1 OC (Gunnthra)
• Jan 18: 7.25 (Micaiah, Sothe, [[BK Zelgius]], Oliver, L'Arachel, Myrrh, Lyon, Marisa)
• Feb 18: 1.5 (Hardin, [Grima M])
• Mar 18: 3 (Morgan M, [Morgan F], Geroma, [Grima F])
• Apr 18: 5.5 (Leif, Nanna, Saias, Finn, Kana F, [Shigure])
• May 18: 5.5 (Kaze, [Kana M], Ares, Ishtar, Lene, Julius)
• Jun 18: 4.5 (Karla, Legault, Linus, Canas, [Summer Noire])
• Jul 18: 4 (Libra, Maribelle, Sumia, Walhart)
• Aug 18: 0.5
  • 0.5 OCs ([Brave Veronica])
• Sep 18: 13
  • 10 regular (Jamke, Lewyn, Quan, Silvia, Ethlyn, Flora, Nina, Ophelia, Silas, Garon)
  • 3 OCs (Helbindi, Laegjarn, Laevatein)
• Oct 18: 3.5
  • 2.5 regular (Kliff, [Owain], Aversa)
  • 1 OC (Loki)
• Nov 18: 4.5
  • 1.5 regular ([Dream Mikoto], Gharnef)
  • 3 OCs (Surtr, Ylgr, Hrid)
• Dec 18: 1
  • 1 OC (Eir)
• Jan 19: 6 (Leanne, Nailah, Reyson, Tibarn, Naesala, Duma)
• Feb 19: 5.5 ([Valentine's Greil], Kaden, Keaton, Selkie, Velouria, Panne)
• Mar 19: 6.5
  • 6 regular (Idunn, Lugh, Sue, Thea, Rutger, Yune)
  • 0.5 OCs ([Spring Bruno])
• Apr 19: 5 (Caineghis, Lethe, Mordecai, Ranulf, Haar)
• May 19: 3.5 ([Dark Mareeta], [Groom Pent], [Bride Sigrun], [Bride Tanith], [Bride Louise], Naga)
• Jun 19: 5 (Brady, Kjelle, Nah, Yarne, Cynthia)
• Jul 19: 6.5 ([Summer Wolt], [Summer Fiora], Byleth F, Claude, Dimitri, Edelgard, [Byleth M], Sothis)
• Aug 19: 6.5 (Kronya, Hilda, Hubert, Mercedes, Petra, Death Knight, [Sigrun])
• Sep 19: 7
  • 6 regular ([Soiree Rinea], Nagi, Norne, Phina, [Sirius], Bantu, Astram)
  • 1 OC (Thrasir)
• Oct 19: 6.5 [Halloween Dozla], [Halloween Ilyana], [Halloween Rolf], Forsyth, Python, Silque, Valbar, Conrad)
• Nov 19: 12 (Ewan, Gerik, Tethys, Ross, Cormag, Echidna, Igrene, Larum, Perceval, Chad, Brunnya, Altina)
• Dec 19: 6
  • 5 regular (Eyvel, [Mareeta], Osian, Tanya, Kempf, [[Duo Winter Elise]], [[Winter FE7 Zephiel]])
  • 1 OC (Peony)
• Jan 20: 11
  • 5 regular (Altena, Ced, Larcei, Shannan, Travant)
  • 5 TMS (Eleonora, Kiria, Mamori, Tsubasa, Itsuki)
  • 1 OC (Lif)
• Feb 20: 5 ([Valentine's Rudolf], [Fiora], Leila, Nils, Rath, Heath)

Totals:

• Launch: 85 regular, 3 OCs
• 2017 (post-launch): 76.25 regular, 2 OCs
• 2018: 48.25 regular, 8.5 OCs
• 2019: 73.5 regular, 2.5 OCs
• 2020 (so far): 10 regular, 5 TMS, 1 OC
• Overall: 293 regular, 5 TMS, 17 OCs

I was on the fence about whether to count Thrasir and Lif as full units or just half. I decided to go with full, but if you disagree, feel free to call it 16 OCs. I feel like that isn't the total people are as concerned with here, anyway.

Edit: De-bracketed Hardin since he's a full game's worth of Hardin. Also added subtotals. Which kept not adding up but I think I got it right this time?

Edited February 15, 2020 by Othin

[eclipse]

3 hours ago, Othin said:

Totals:

• Launch: 85 regular, 3 OCs
• 2017 (post-launch): 76.25 regular, 2 OCs
• 2018: 48.25 regular, 8.5 OCs
• 2019: 73.5 regular, 2.5 OCs
• 2020 (so far): 10 regular, 5 TMS, 1 OC
• Overall: 293 regular, 5 TMS, 17 OCs

I was on the fence about whether to count Thrasir and Lif as full units or just half. I decided to go with full, but if you disagree, feel free to call it 16 OCs. I feel like that isn't the total people are as concerned with here, anyway.

That's way more detail than I was expecting, thanks!

I think the CYL poll hit close to 600 characters - given that OCs are every year, it'll probably reach that point (never mind the new 3H DLC).  Now assuming that every month has two new banners (four each) plus a GHB/TT+ (two more), that's ten a month.  Next, let's assume that there's no more alts.  Assuming the rate of 10/month, with a ballpark of 300 left, that's 30 months of content - or two and a half years.  In order for it to be less than two years, I'd need to be off by over 60. . .and this is also assuming that the Cipher characters don't make the hop over, either.

This doesn't take into account that there's a lot of unpopular characters in there, as well as a bunch of NPCs.  But it's an illustration as to how NOT starved IS is for new units.

[Othin]

37 minutes ago, eclipse said:

That's way more detail than I was expecting, thanks!

I think the CYL poll hit close to 600 characters - given that OCs are every year, it'll probably reach that point (never mind the new 3H DLC).  Now assuming that every month has two new banners (four each) plus a GHB/TT+ (two more), that's ten a month.  Next, let's assume that there's no more alts.  Assuming the rate of 10/month, with a ballpark of 300 left, that's 30 months of content - or two and a half years.  In order for it to be less than two years, I'd need to be off by over 60. . .and this is also assuming that the Cipher characters don't make the hop over, either.

This doesn't take into account that there's a lot of unpopular characters in there, as well as a bunch of NPCs.  But it's an illustration as to how NOT starved IS is for new units.

Both CYL3 and CYL4 have over 600 characters listed in the results (they have a whole page for ranks 600+), but they get listed with numerical rankings of under 600 because it has ties only take up one ranking rather than multiple.

When thinking about units left to add, the half-countings aren't really significant, since adding something like regular Rolf or regular Laslow would still be a full slot. Also it doesn't matter how trivial some of the variations are if they have their own CYL spot. So, adjusting for that:

• Launch: 89 (3 OCs)
• 2017: 78 (2 OCs)
• 2018: 54 (8 OCs)
• 2019: 78 (2 OCs)
• 2020: 16 (1 OC, 5 TMS)
• Total: 315 (16 OCs, 5 TMS)

Altina still isn't on CYL, so that's 314 of the CYL units that are in the game as regular versions and like 350+ that aren't. So you could add 10 new ones per month for about three years, but like you said, that ends up really scraping the bottom of the barrel. I think they would prefer to not have to be adding units like Troude, Asaello, Sandima, and Daniel in just a few years.

[eclipse]

1 minute ago, Othin said:

Altina still isn't on CYL, so that's 314 of the CYL units that are in the game as regular versions and like 350+ that aren't. So you could add 10 new ones per month for about three years, but like you said, that ends up really scraping the bottom of the barrel. I think they would prefer to not have to be adding units like Troude, Asaello, Sandima, and Daniel in just a few years.

Right, completely forgot about the Altina Exception.

Which means if alts were even one banner every other month, we'd still have a good supply of brand-new units.