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What would have happened if the Flame Emperor never went on the offensive?


Jotari
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Scenario: Edelgard never reveals herself as the Flame Emperor, but still takes control of Adrestia and declares herself split from the church. She then doesn't launch any form of attack on the church and waits for Rhea to make the next move. The key things to consider here.

*Rhea would no doubt be pissed, but would she go on the offensive against the Empire merely for the emperor declaring herself an atheist.

*If Rhea does initiate the war, would the Kingdom and Alliance support her when there is no active threat to their own lands?

*How would the Agarthans react? Would they be happy to have a large anti Church empire or would that not be acceptable?

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Rhea might have been pissed enough to try and start something, but she also might hold off creating a "Cold War" until she was in a better position. The difference being determined by the lack of Byleth's "betrayal" to set her off.

Dimitri certainly would want her head, and so would Dedue by extension. So, even if she never went on the offensive... it'd be a matter of time until Dimitri ruled the Kingdom... and  revealed what he believed to be the truth behind the tragedy of Duscur. Which would certainly turn people of both the Kingdom and Duscur itself against the Empire. Unless, perhaps, Dimitri did something irrational and attempted to pull off a solo assassination... which is crazy enough to be in character for him at that stage of the game.

While the years would have given Edelgard time to fortify the Empire... the same would apply to the neighboring lands. That and the loss of the element of surprise that allowed the victory at Garreg Mach (as there wasn't time to get reinforcements in the necessary numbers from the Kingdom and Alliance) would weigh on the Empire. The winner of such a war is hard to say for certain. Given the stories have the game go three/four different ways based on the allegiance of Byleth, the Alliance, and who holds Garreg Mach, I'd say those are the determining factors still.

The Alliance would likely have taken a neutral stance, with no active conquest going on. Indeed, with Claude's own beliefs he may have even leaned towards the Empire in such circumstances.

The Agarthans would likely be discontent with anything less than the death of all involved with the church, and exert any pressure they could to try and ignite full war early as possible. This could include assassinating and/or impersonating individuals from one or more nations to initiate hostilities.

So yeah. I more or less conclude there'd be a Cold War until either Dimitri or the Agarthans saw it blow up by their own inability to let it lie. Then whoever the perceived aggressor is would get curb-stomped by the other two nations. Unless the Agarthans decided to assassinate someone in the Empire while impersonating a still living Claude or something. Because that'd be a tactical blunder that puts everyone against the Empire after they lost the element of surprise.
 

Spoiler

Funny enough, the first time I played the game in the Blue Lions route, I incorrectly guessed that Edelgard's sudden closeness to Monica (who I'd gathered was a plant by the same group responsible for Tomas/Solon) meant that she'd been killed and replaced by a shape-shifting imposter as well and the difference in Crimson Flower would be Byleth being present to stop it. I was wrong, and preferred what was actually done to an extent. But I can't help but think it's something that may have been a back-up plan for Thales in the event Edelgard didn't play ball. Personally I would have had it as something he attempted after Rhea was dead to add a couple much needed chapters and a real resolution to the Agarthans to the route. But alas, it was not to be.

 

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I don't see Rhea declaring war. It could depend on context, though - if the Empire were executing Church figures within their boundaries, then Rhea may have a causus belli. In the Kingdom, it's unclear whether Cornelia will orchestrate her coup. If so, she may attempt to force the Empire and Church into a war. If not, I don't see Dimitri declaring war on the Empire, unless Edelgard is revealed as the Flame Emperor - and even then, I can't say for sure.

So in all likelihood, it's a tense peace, at least until the Slitherers force somebod's hand. Maybe trade between the nations become impossible, IDK.

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36 minutes ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

I don't see Rhea declaring war. It could depend on context, though - if the Empire were executing Church figures within their boundaries, then Rhea may have a causus belli. In the Kingdom, it's unclear whether Cornelia will orchestrate her coup. If so, she may attempt to force the Empire and Church into a war. If not, I don't see Dimitri declaring war on the Empire, unless Edelgard is revealed as the Flame Emperor - and even then, I can't say for sure.

So in all likelihood, it's a tense peace, at least until the Slitherers force somebod's hand. Maybe trade between the nations become impossible, IDK.

Yeah going to war with the Empire would kinda defeat the whole "keep peace in Fodlan" thing she built the Church around.

Plus, I think people are giving her way more power than what she actually has. Remember, Adrestia's already been giving the Church the middle finger for years now and they really haven't  been able to do anything except hope diplomatic relations improve once Edelgard starts attending classes there.  The Alliance is filled with nobles perfectly willing to backstab her and do in-game.

Heck, she doesn't even really have a good support on her own sphere of control: The Western Church hates her guts and has frequently attempted to kill her, of which she only relatively recently had enough ammo to use against them. The Southern Church in Adrestia has long been dissolved way before the start of the game and they couldn't help that either. 

I seriously doubt Rhea has the power to convince or force either the Alliance or the Kingdom into war against Adrestia outside of their own interests. The Alliance seems like a hard no, mostly because they really aren't that loyal to the Church and Claude's MO is closer to political manipulation. I don't think she could get the Kingdom to do anything either since declaring war based on a difference of beliefs would be really OOC for Dmitri. The best attempt she could make would be to try to convince him that Edelgard was involved with Duscur, but if Edelgard doesn't act then A) she would have no basis for this, and B) Rhea wouldn't even know about her collaborating with TWSITD.

Not saying Rhea is completely powerless; a big flaw of hers is that she plays whack-a-mole with her problems and doesn't really solve things that could become issues in the long term until they do. For example, she wasn't responsible for the Crest system and it would have popped up anyway due to their inherent value, but she still could've pushed harder with her soft power to create a better environment over time. Sure she could get in trouble for meddling to much in nobles' affairs, but it would make it easier for if they're devalued enough that their origins won't make an impact on her race.

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Have her split from the church, but not declare war.  Let Rhea determine the next move.  Probably call them heretics and start the war herself, if the Western Church arc was any indication.

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Rhea wanted to kill Edelgard because she was stealing crest stones. Y'know the hearts of her loved ones which should be kept out of the hands of humans anyway due to being biological weapons. Since she's willing to harbor atheists in her own home, I don't expect she'd be all too disturbed at an atheist Empire when they have such a distant relationship already.

But the words "Rhea makes the next move" are interesting to me, since Rhea does very little decision making in Three Houses, in general. Either spending most of the plot being mysterious and offscreen or captured and offscreen.

Edited by Glennstavos
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49 minutes ago, eclipse said:

Have her split from the church, but not declare war.  Let Rhea determine the next move.  Probably call them heretics and start the war herself, if the Western Church arc was any indication.

The Western Church was very different, though. First, they supported Lonato basically declaring war on the (Central) Church. Then they broke into the Holy Mausoleum. Why they did this, the game doesn't explain very well. But the campaign against the Western Church was retribution towards their own attack.

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1 minute ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

The Western Church was very different, though. First, they supported Lonato basically declaring war on the (Central) Church. Then they broke into the Holy Mausoleum. Why they did this, the game doesn't explain very well. But the campaign against the Western Church was retribution towards their own attack.

Her treatment of the captured Western Church members goes beyond mere law-breaking IMO.  She really hates those that go outside of her control.

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That was more extreme though precisely because they were part of the church if they had been outsiders the punishment may have been different. It was even specified that because they were members of the church there could only bee one punishment.

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5 minutes ago, eclipse said:

Her treatment of the captured Western Church members goes beyond mere law-breaking IMO.  She really hates those that go outside of her control.

In all fairness this was pretty much the third time they tried to attack her and the second time they've directly endangered her students and Garreg Mach and she knows this. Not to mention, the relics are both the corpses of her fallen brethren and incredibly dangerous tools of destruction that create beasts.

This was also changed from the original JP text for some reason, but Seteth states that they did in fact run an investigation and found them guilty which ties in to Ashe and Catherine's paralogue I think.  I found the students' reactions to be kind weird imo, because in the feudalistic environment established in Three Houses' world an investigation followed by a quick verdict shouldn't have seemed so out of place. And this stuff is somewhat present as shown in AM and CF. In both cases near the end of their routes Edelgard and Dmitri are both in perfect positions to capture the other, hold them up for trial, have an official execution/imprisonment etc etc, especially since by then the war against their respective countries would be nearing an end.

On a side note one thing I did find funny was that Caspar thought the thing with the Western Church was too far but was perfectly fine with murdering someone for stealing food in his support with Ashe.

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I don't see why Dimitri would go againist Edelgard, as he only hated her because her being the FE made him believe she did the tragedy of Duscur, unless she publicly admit her allegiance to the Slither, wich she won't do. If Dimitri concludes that Arundhel was being Duscur, Edelgard would likely side whit him in order to get rid of Thales(she don't need him if she does not want to declare war) and getting the chance to sway him againist the church.

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8 minutes ago, Cyan1456 said:

In all fairness this was pretty much the third time they tried to attack her and the second time they've directly endangered her students and Garreg Mach and she knows this. Not to mention, the relics are both the corpses of her fallen brethren and incredibly dangerous tools of destruction that create beasts.

This was also changed from the original JP text for some reason, but Seteth states that they did in fact run an investigation and found them guilty which ties in to Ashe and Catherine's paralogue I think.  I found the students' reactions to be kind weird imo, because in the feudalistic environment established in Three Houses' world an investigation followed by a quick verdict shouldn't have seemed so out of place. And this stuff is somewhat present as shown in AM and CF. In both cases near the end of their routes Edelgard and Dmitri are both in perfect positions to capture the other, hold them up for trial, have an official execution/imprisonment etc etc, especially since by then the war against their respective countries would be nearing an end.

Run an investigation or interrogation?  The latter would be far more helpful for the greater good IMO.

The kids may not have been privy to an actual sentencing before, so I can forgive them for being young and whatnot.

10 minutes ago, Cyan1456 said:

On a side note one thing I did find funny was that Caspar thought the thing with the Western Church was too far but was perfectly fine with murdering someone for stealing food in his support with Ashe.

He saw it happen in front of him.  đŸ˜›

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1 minute ago, eclipse said:

Run an investigation or interrogation?  The latter would be far more helpful for the greater good IMO.

The kids may not have been privy to an actual sentencing before, so I can forgive them for being young and whatnot.

He saw it happen in front of him.  đŸ˜›

IIRC it was an investigation.

As for the second part the point was that he was willing to personally kill the guy for doing that. Not really a criticism I just found it funny because I got the support almost immediately after the Western Church thing happened.

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3 minutes ago, Cyan1456 said:

As for the second part the point was that he was willing to personally kill the guy for doing that. Not really a criticism I just found it funny because I got the support almost immediately after the Western Church thing happened.

The Western Church and their crimes are mostly words - the students see Lonato, and not much else.

In Caspar's support, he sees the crime happen in front of him, hence why he'd be willing to enact that justice.  It's definitely amusing, but not completely incompatible with his other views.

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33 minutes ago, eclipse said:

The Western Church and their crimes are mostly words - the students see Lonato, and not much else.

In Caspar's support, he sees the crime happen in front of him, hence why he'd be willing to enact that justice.  It's definitely amusing, but not completely incompatible with his other views.

Deliberately attacking students some of which are royals and nobles, raiding a holy tomb, provoking and then secretly backing someone into assassinating a leading religious figure not once, but twice, goes beyond the scope of mostly words. Or do you mean that they only heard that by word of mouth? Then maybe I could kinda see that, but they still attacked them with the intent to kill in addition to trying to steal something worth more than food, all in front of Caspar depending on route.

Imo I think it's just a writing inconsistency which I might let slide since I heard they outsource the support writing IIRC, or was that only for Fates? (Also, other highlight: MERCEDES being the only one to go "They totally deserved that" during the execution. Guess she has some Emile in her. I didn't see that coming and burst out laughing).

Edited by Cyan1456
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14 minutes ago, Cyan1456 said:

Deliberately attacking students some of which are royals and nobles, raiding a holy tomb, provoking and then secretly backing someone into assassinating a leading religious figure not once, but twice, goes beyond the scope of mostly words. Or do you mean that they only heard that by word of mouth? Then maybe I could kinda see that, but they still attacked them with the intent to kill in addition to trying to steal something worth more than food, all in front of Caspar depending on route.

Imo I think it's just a writing inconsistency which I might let slide since I heard they outsource the support writing IIRC, or was that only for Fates? (Also, other highlight: MERCEDES being the only one to go "They totally deserved that" during the execution. Guess she has some Emile in her. I didn't see that coming and burst out laughing).

 

Well Mercedes is quite the pious one. So attacking a holy place with armed forces on a holy festival.... fully intending to murdering however comes into their way did get a little bit under her skin.

 

To topic: Nothing would happen. The Central Church would probably write her an letter asking what she means with "splitting from the church", as she was never affiliated with them in the first place. Nor did the Central Church had any influence in the empire to begin with. That was the job of the Southern Church, which only has a little bit of influence after their actions in the rebellion (unfortunetaly it was never mentioned who their were rebelling against ... or if it was their rebellion to begin with). The Clerics actually hoped that Empire and church would get a little bit closer after Edelgard enrolled in the academy. So they would probably be disappointed but nothing more because that was the state before her enrollment anyway.

 

If she also hold her nĂ¼rnber rally - accussing the church of aiding the kingdom and the alliance in their splitting, things might get a little bit complicated. But I doubt that Rhea would start a war. After all she did nothing, when the southern church was depowered by the empire. Or when the alliance split from the kingdom. or when the kingdom split from the alliance. She does not seem to do anything when things dont come to her doorstep or someone asks her for aid.

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Well, The Flame Emperor not going on the offensive would mean one less thing in the already very small list of things that the Flame Emperor actually does in part 1. So... the Flame Emperor would be a bit more boring than they already are, I guess?

I mean, come on; when Zuko puts on the Blue Spirit mask in ATLA, he does important stuff when he wears it! At least Amon in LOK actually does important stuff while wearing the mask. The most important thing the Flame Emperor does pre-reveal is hire Kostas to kill a bunch of students that includes herself, and their only interaction with Byleth (or with any of their opponents for that matter) is to tell them that they weren't involved in what Solon did at Remire Village.

That's right; their only interaction pre-reveal is to say they weren't involved in something somewhat important. Remind me, the first time "the Blue Spirit" interacts with Aang, what do they do? Oh, yeah; rescue Aang from the Fire Nation. 

Say what you will about Edelgard, but the Flame Emperor specifically is a pathetic antagonist, as if the Agarthans sprayed Edelgard in "bad villain spray" every time she's the Flame Emperor, and the whole reason for the outfit is that Bad Villain Spray stains clothes. 

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There likely would be a civil war within the Empire that Edelgard would have to worry about, seeing that a good amount of nobles were expecting a continental war to take over Fodlan. Of course, this is better than a continental war, and I doubt Rhea would want to feed into the conflict unless Edelgard/the opposing forces start persecuting members of the church like Edelgard did in non-CF routes.

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It's hard to say because Rhea would likely not be keen on the largest nation in Fodlan operating in a fashion that would undermine her goals (control of the progress of Fodlan), but I wouldn't call her a very proactive leader, either. It may make a difference if Edelgard goes full hog on eradicating the church's influence within her borders by ordering the destruction of churches/temples and allowing the persecution of followers, because that could give Rhea the preamble necessary to react militarily without necessarily being seen as the subjugating force that she'd be.

Can see her being crafty and sneaky instead, too, and taking advantage of the civil unrest where she may. 

Edited by Crysta
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16 minutes ago, Crysta said:

It's hard to say because Rhea would likely not be keen on the largest nation in Fodlan operating in a fashion that would undermine her goals (control of the progress of Fodlan), but I wouldn't call her a very proactive leader, either. It may make a difference if Edelgard goes full hog on eradicating the church's influence within her borders by ordering the destruction of churches/temples and allowing the persecution of followers, because that could give Rhea the preamble necessary to react militarily without necessarily being seen as the subjugating force that she'd be.

Can see her being crafty and sneaky instead, too, and taking advantage of the civil unrest where she may. 

 

I have doubt it would be that subtle. Church of Seiros definitely has undetones of Catholcism, and when the leader of half the conitnent just breaks away through the explicit ditching and criticism of key aspects of the doctrine... The terms 'Heresy' and Crusades' come to mind while the Church could still organize them (Cathars, Hussites...), or at least civil war (the Reform). I mean, it is an even bigger challenge of Rhea's autority than the Western Church's one, from the nation whose she crowns the ruler (who likely skipped that part in this reality too). Her unwillingness to bend aside, she'd need to react, or her authority and prestige would just go poof.

For inside nobles... I'd say it's dicey. Most of them 'shift' from Aegir to Edelgard (where everyone remain under Mole Men puppeteering, no matter how unwilling from Edelgard, unless CF) under the promise of reunifying Adrestia, so there is a need of changes here for Edelgard to manage to take her throne. And she is probably running purges inside Adrestia precisely because she can't have nobles backstab her in these conditions.

Interestingly, I notice a... lack of mention of inner purges during the war, beyond one mention in first chapter of CF after the timeskip. The 'only' civil unrest comes from Hrym and Tharundel, and I guess if resistance pro-Church was a thing, it would warrant a mention in other routes, or desertion of believers from the army. It would imply that while it would certainly not be monolithic, Edelgard could have the support of the majority of the population of Adrestia against. the Church. I would consider such an idea... Again, interesting.

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13 hours ago, The Roger The Paladin said:

Rhea might have been pissed enough to try and start something, but she also might hold off creating a "Cold War" until she was in a better position. The difference being determined by the lack of Byleth's "betrayal" to set her off.

Dimitri certainly would want her head, and so would Dedue by extension. So, even if she never went on the offensive... it'd be a matter of time until Dimitri ruled the Kingdom... and  revealed what he believed to be the truth behind the tragedy of Duscur. Which would certainly turn people of both the Kingdom and Duscur itself against the Empire. Unless, perhaps, Dimitri did something irrational and attempted to pull off a solo assassination... which is crazy enough to be in character for him at that stage of the game.

While the years would have given Edelgard time to fortify the Empire... the same would apply to the neighboring lands. That and the loss of the element of surprise that allowed the victory at Garreg Mach (as there wasn't time to get reinforcements in the necessary numbers from the Kingdom and Alliance) would weigh on the Empire. The winner of such a war is hard to say for certain. Given the stories have the game go three/four different ways based on the allegiance of Byleth, the Alliance, and who holds Garreg Mach, I'd say those are the determining factors still.

The Alliance would likely have taken a neutral stance, with no active conquest going on. Indeed, with Claude's own beliefs he may have even leaned towards the Empire in such circumstances.

The Agarthans would likely be discontent with anything less than the death of all involved with the church, and exert any pressure they could to try and ignite full war early as possible. This could include assassinating and/or impersonating individuals from one or more nations to initiate hostilities.

So yeah. I more or less conclude there'd be a Cold War until either Dimitri or the Agarthans saw it blow up by their own inability to let it lie. Then whoever the perceived aggressor is would get curb-stomped by the other two nations. Unless the Agarthans decided to assassinate someone in the Empire while impersonating a still living Claude or something. Because that'd be a tactical blunder that puts everyone against the Empire after they lost the element of surprise.
 

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Funny enough, the first time I played the game in the Blue Lions route, I incorrectly guessed that Edelgard's sudden closeness to Monica (who I'd gathered was a plant by the same group responsible for Tomas/Solon) meant that she'd been killed and replaced by a shape-shifting imposter as well and the difference in Crimson Flower would be Byleth being present to stop it. I was wrong, and preferred what was actually done to an extent. But I can't help but think it's something that may have been a back-up plan for Thales in the event Edelgard didn't play ball. Personally I would have had it as something he attempted after Rhea was dead to add a couple much needed chapters and a real resolution to the Agarthans to the route. But alas, it was not to be.

 

If Edelgard never reveals herself to be the Flame Emperor than Dimitri would have no solid reason to believe she is behind the Tragedy of Duscur.

7 hours ago, eclipse said:

Have her split from the church, but not declare war.  Let Rhea determine the next move.  Probably call them heretics and start the war herself, if the Western Church arc was any indication.

She probably would call them heritics, but I without support from the alliance and the kingdom she wouldn't have the martial power to go to war.

Now, something she could possibly do is attack Enbar as the Immaculate One and spin it as Sothis performing divine intervention. Though whether Rhea alone could win in a surprise attack on Enbarr is rather doubtful. 

4 hours ago, MrPerson0 said:

There likely would be a civil war within the Empire that Edelgard would have to worry about, seeing that a good amount of nobles were expecting a continental war to take over Fodlan. Of course, this is better than a continental war, and I doubt Rhea would want to feed into the conflict unless Edelgard/the opposing forces start persecuting members of the church like Edelgard did in non-CF routes.

If the empire collapsed into civil war, that could be a good scenario to see Machiavellian Claude make his move in a bid of conquest.

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29 minutes ago, vanguard333 said:

Yes, but their shocked statements made it clear that they were unwitting pawns; unwitting pawns that could've been more useful alive for information. 

That's true. That would've been clever. Though it would've been OOC for Rhea, maybe ? As she's always a bit on edge and well, weird. 

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