What if Marth never embarked?

[Jotari]

Everything was peaceful until the Fire Nation attacked is a rather popular trope used in Fire Emblem. But the first use of it actually does something a bit different that I'd like to see more of in the series, namely it's backstory more than anything else. There's a four year time skip between the start of the war and Marth going to war. This makes his decision, well more of a decision. Eprhaim, Roy, Ike etc, their decisions to go to war are more reactions than choices. It's all happening in the now. Marth has some time to deliberate and stew on things. And it's not really a straightforward choice for him (this is something I actually really respect the anime for considering). Marth could be contributing more to the violence by going on the offensive and he has a very unlikely chance of winning. Him simply accepting defeat and staying safe, hidden away on Talys isn't an unreasonable decision. So let's speculate for a second, what if he did choose just that?

Now the answer to this might seem immediately obvious. Doluna finally conquers Orleans, Nyna and Hardin are killed. However, in this story there's more actors than just Medeus vying for control of the continent. Namely Gharnef, Michalis and Gotoh. Gharnef obviously holds Falchion and Imhullu which makes him a match for Medeus, Michalis seems like the weakest player, however Gotoh lives in Macedonia and without Marth he still needs someone to fix things and in lieu of anyone else, Michalis might just be his guy. So let's hear your suggestions for how a Post War of Shadows Marth free conflict might go down.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Jotari

[TriforceP]

In the end, while Medeus would have reached his full potential using the combined powers of Elice and Aum, it would've been Gharnef who ended up conquering Archanea. As the game implied, both Michalis and Gharnef had plans to betray Dohlr at some point. However, unlike Michalis, Gharnef held all the cards that would actually enable him to do so - namely Falchion and Tiki. While he didn't have the ability to wield it himself, and I don't thiiiiink Elice could've done so (thobe able ugh I could be wrong), the Daughter of Naga, wielding her own Divinestone, would be able to smite the Shadow Dragon where he stood, as she's been known to do in-game. Once the Dohlr empire ruled all, it would just take Gharnef sending his little loli assasin over to cut the head off the dragon. With Gharnef having conquered Archanea, I imagine Xane and Gotoh would go North to the Ice Dragon Temple, and stay there, to allow things to play out; Gotoh's faith in humanity was already thin come Shadow Dragon, and, while Marth was able to restore it over the course of the game, that obviously didn't happen in this reality. So that's another player off the board. That, of course, leaves Michalis. 

The problem is, once Gotoh leaves, there's no way to defeat Gharnef. As far as we're aware, he's the only person who knows how to use the Star and Light spheres to craft Starlight, which is itself the only power able to stop the Darksphere. So, without that knowledge, I imagine Michalis would attempt to supplant Gharnef, but would end up failing. While it is possible that he'd follow Anri's Way to go track down Gotoh for help, by then the thieves would have arrived to steal the orbs from the Thane of Ramen, and Starlight would be lost. 

Game over, return of Ganon.

[Solvaij]

I like this premise! Without Marth coming to mess with things, I think it's possible Michalis could go through with his plan of betraying Medeus. Whether or not he's able to kill Medeus without Falchion is the question. I see no reason why someone else wouldn't be able to recruit Merric and acquire Gotoh's help in order to deal with Gharnef so I think he could get that squared away, but I believe unless he has the Falchion, he can't kill Medeus. Unless Gharnef himself could do it? It's possible Michalis could put together an alliance with Grust since they're both working with Dolhr not exactly of their own volition, and since Camus would no longer have any reason to be hostile toward the forces fighting Dolhr, maybe he would be able to help out with the whole situation in Aurelis.

But actually, I think if Marth didn't go out himself, Gotoh may have started to contact him anyway.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Solvaij

[Jotari]

55 minutes ago, TriforceP said:

In the end, while Medeus would have reached his full potential using the combined powers of Elice and Aum, it would've been Gharnef who ended up conquering Archanea. As the game implied, both Michalis and Gharnef had plans to betray Dohlr at some point. However, unlike Michalis, Gharnef held all the cards that would actually enable him to do so - namely Falchion and Tiki. While he didn't have the ability to wield it himself, and I don't thiiiiink Elice could've done so (thobe able ugh I could be wrong), the Daughter of Naga, wielding her own Divinestone, would be able to smite the Shadow Dragon where he stood, as she's been known to do in-game. Once the Dohlr empire ruled all, it would just take Gharnef sending his little loli assasin over to cut the head off the dragon. With Gharnef having conquered Archanea, I imagine Xane and Gotoh would go North to the Ice Dragon Temple, and stay there, to allow things to play out; Gotoh's faith in humanity was already thin come Shadow Dragon, and, while Marth was able to restore it over the course of the game, that obviously didn't happen in this reality. So that's another player off the board. That, of course, leaves Michalis. 

The problem is, once Gotoh leaves, there's no way to defeat Gharnef. As far as we're aware, he's the only person who knows how to use the Star and Light spheres to craft Starlight, which is itself the only power able to stop the Darksphere. So, without that knowledge, I imagine Michalis would attempt to supplant Gharnef, but would end up failing. While it is possible that he'd follow Anri's Way to go track down Gotoh for help, by then the thieves would have arrived to steal the orbs from the Thane of Ramen, and Starlight would be lost. 

Game over, return of Ganon.

I don't think Gotoh's actions are entirely based on Marth restoring his faith in humanity. He has the combined issues of the guilt over failing Gharnef as a teacher and also the desire to keep loyal to Naga. Failing fate in humanity might erode the latter, but I don't really see Gotoh not trying to take down Gharnef.

[Lau]

Honestly, I think a better scenario would be, what if Marth never made it to Talys in the first place? What if he was killed back in Altea? That eliminates any possibility of him being persuaded to join the war later, possibly by Gotoh contacting him.

In a Marth-less Shadow Dragon, I could honestly see Michalis and Camus meeting on the battlefield after Michalis goes through with his plan on betraying Medeus. While Camus wouldn't join him, I can see him giving Michalis some vital information, possibly enemy movement, idk. Either way, I don't think Michalis would have succeeded against Medeus unless he somehow bought Tiki into the conflict, and considering how far out of the way Tiki is (if memory serves, it's been a while) I doubt he'd even learn of her existence.

Basically, Archanea would be in shit street without Marth. There's no indication that Elice can wield Falchion, and I doubt many others would end up finding Tiki.

[Jotari]

15 minutes ago, Lau said:

Honestly, I think a better scenario would be, what if Marth never made it to Talys in the first place? What if he was killed back in Altea? That eliminates any possibility of him being persuaded to join the war later, possibly by Gotoh contacting him.

In a Marth-less Shadow Dragon, I could honestly see Michalis and Camus meeting on the battlefield after Michalis goes through with his plan on betraying Medeus. While Camus wouldn't join him, I can see him giving Michalis some vital information, possibly enemy movement, idk. Either way, I don't think Michalis would have succeeded against Medeus unless he somehow bought Tiki into the conflict, and considering how far out of the way Tiki is (if memory serves, it's been a while) I doubt he'd even learn of her existence.

Basically, Archanea would be in shit street without Marth. There's no indication that Elice can wield Falchion, and I doubt many others would end up finding Tiki.

Tiki is in Grust, which is only a short sea hop over from Macadonia. For comparison, in Marth's route there's only one chapter after recruiting Tiki before you're in Macedonia. In addition Tiki wasn't really massive secret. Rumors of her had already reached Marth before he arrived at the Fane of Ramen. Bantu is also still going to be around searching for and trying to save Tiki. So much like what Marth did, someone would either pick Bantu up or he could find her unaided and possibly whisk her away from the war entirely. Assuming no one manages to kill him first (whether he'd still end up going to Pyarthi and finding his dragonstone is anyone's guess).

[Koops]

Imagine a game where the agressor is actually you, and it turns out your reason for invading was actually a misunderstanding, and for the rest of the game (or at least a big chunk of it) you have to deal with the consequences?

Of course you still gotta need a villain within that same plot but imagine an FE game that opens up with that.

[The Roger The Paladin]

1 hour ago, Koops said:

Imagine a game where the agressor is actually you, and it turns out your reason for invading was actually a misunderstanding, and for the rest of the game (or at least a big chunk of it) you have to deal with the consequences?

Of course you still gotta need a villain within that same plot but imagine an FE game that opens up with that.

Like Mystery of the Emblem and New Mystery, where Marth's Grustian expedition is literally because the corrupted Hardin sent him there as an opportunity to conquer Altea despite the fact Grust had done nothing wrong? Hence Marth kind of was the aggressor... and spent the rest of the game dealing with the consequences of the deception once it's uncovered at the end of Chapter 4. Hence, we have Hardin, who serves as the antagonist for much of the game and the reason for the misunderstanding.

Come to think of it... Hardin's basically what happens if you take Birthright! Garon and actually write the character well. Monarch corrupted by external power, who sends protagonist who trusts him on a mission with ulterior motives. Protagonist is royally screwed over, but refuses to believe they've been betrayed, assuming it's the work of an underhanded in-between (Hans and Lang) until evidence mounts to the contrary, including the monarch's other underhanded dealings (the faceless, the pursuit of Yumina and Yubello). You even have the maps, both involving water and bridges, where Hardin and Garon show up early with stats that make it clear you don't want to fight them. (Chapter 8: Soulful bridge, and Chapter 12: Dark reunion in Birthright). Mind, Garon actually can be defeated there... Hardin can't. If we go with original Mystery of the Emblem, the Wolf Guard (save Roshea), all Camus out refusing to believe the man they knew is gone. The key difference, is Hardin's got an attachment to the player by virtue of his history in Shadow Dragon and flashbacks. Whereas, the only point we hear reasons why anyone trusts Garon is in support conversations. Characters acknowledge Hardin's changed, while Garon's apparently enough of a dick no one noticed.

[Koops]

Oop, my bad I forgot about that... but in this case wasn't Marth following orders from Archanea? I'm talking like, you actually have a villain's reason for invading and it turns out it turns everyone against you.

[Jotari]

3 hours ago, Koops said:

Imagine a game where the agressor is actually you, and it turns out your reason for invading was actually a misunderstanding, and for the rest of the game (or at least a big chunk of it) you have to deal with the consequences?

Of course you still gotta need a villain within that same plot but imagine an FE game that opens up with that.

Not that this isn't a decent train of thought. But what's the relevance to the Michalis, Gharnef, Medeus free for all?

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Gotoh wouldn't help Medeus, and he's certainly not going to help Gharnef. I could see him helping either Hardin and Nyna, or Michaelis, though. The Starsphere and Lightsphere are in the Fane of Raman, not too far from Macedon, so Michaelis would have a better shot at getting them. He could also volunteer to lead the assault on Aurelis, capturing Hardin and Nyna - in order to ally with them. Nyna, as a Bishop, is a potential Starlight user (so is promoted Maria I guess, but that'd take some grinding). Together, they could potentially defeat Gharnef (imagine, Michaelis carrying Nyna to him as a prisoner, before she whips out the Starlight spell to break Imhullu's dark aura). Killing Gharnef might also free Tiki from his spell, so we've got her (and even if not, we could still get Nagi). It'll be harder to fell Medeus without a known Falchion user, but not impossible. 

Of course, this is all contingent on a) Michaelis learning about the Starlight tome and the Orbs' locations, b) Gotoh cooperating with him to make it, c) Nyna (or another Sage or Bishop) cooperating with him to use it, and d) Gharnef being none the wiser. It's a tall order, but it seems plausible, at the very least.

[Jotari]

31 minutes ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

Gotoh wouldn't help Medeus, and he's certainly not going to help Gharnef. I could see him helping either Hardin and Nyna, or Michaelis, though. The Starsphere and Lightsphere are in the Fane of Raman, not too far from Macedon, so Michaelis would have a better shot at getting them. He could also volunteer to lead the assault on Aurelis, capturing Hardin and Nyna - in order to ally with them. Nyna, as a Bishop, is a potential Starlight user (so is promoted Maria I guess, but that'd take some grinding). Together, they could potentially defeat Gharnef (imagine, Michaelis carrying Nyna to him as a prisoner, before she whips out the Starlight spell to break Imhullu's dark aura). Killing Gharnef might also free Tiki from his spell, so we've got her (and even if not, we could still get Nagi). It'll be harder to fell Medeus without a known Falchion user, but not impossible. 

Of course, this is all contingent on a) Michaelis learning about the Starlight tome and the Orbs' locations, b) Gotoh cooperating with him to make it, c) Nyna (or another Sage or Bishop) cooperating with him to use it, and d) Gharnef being none the wiser. It's a tall order, but it seems plausible, at the very least.

I can definitely see Gotoh working with Michaelis as they live right beside each other and in Shadow Dragon they add a scene which shows Michalis has concern for Gotoh and Gotoh seeming quite fond for Michaelis despite his villainous deeds, however I don't really see Gotoh helping Nyna or Hardin given that in the canon he doesn't. Marth saves Aurelis at, basically, the last second. Gotoh didn't lift a finger to help them and I doubt Marth being out of the picture would change his mind there. Gotoh might be able to perdict the future, but he isn't all knowing, it's not like he was holding off on saving Nyna because he knew Marth would do so, at least nothing suggests that afaik. To boot it was also Michalis's army that was doing the bulk of the attacking on Aurelis, so it would take significant coordination before the hypothetical point of divergence (which isn't actually Chapter 1, it's really chapter 4 as Marth was fighting bandits and Pirates prior to that which would have little influence in the grand scheme of things). If we're talking about likely Starlight users, then I think the most likely one is the one who I think canon best suits (due to everyone else already having some associated weapon), that being Wendell who is already fighting in the Macedonian army...for some reason.