New Event Calendar: July-August 2020

[Humanoid]

If this is about there being two seasonal banners in a row, that's just cancelling out the two consecutive New Heroes banners in Late February to Early March (Blazing then Three Houses). And that's before we consider that there were two New Heroes to one Special Heroes in January, meaning that actually right now we're dead even in terms of releases this year at seven apiece. The late July New Heroes means non-seasonals will creep ahead once more.

August will maintain the status quo, then if September is double New Heroes as predicted, then New Heroes will blast forward to be three ahead.

[Othin]

The current pattern seems to be that over the course of a year, we get 15 New Heroes banners and 10 Special Heroes banners, with the Special Heroes banners being:

1. New Year's (January)
2. Valentine's (February)
3. Spring (March)
4. Picnic or Anniversary (April)
5. Wedding (May)
6. Summer 1 (June)
7. Summer 2 (July)
8. Dancers (August or September)
9. Halloween (October)
10. Christmas (December)

This is perfectly in keeping with that: so far, the only change compared to 2018's seasonal lineup is the addition of the Anniversary banner. I don't see any cause for concern.

I think the New Heroes banner is very likely to be Path of Radiance. Not only is it the game that's gone by far the longest without a New Heroes banner, it's also gotten only a single new unit (Ashnard) since Book 4 started, and game affiliations actually matter now. Looking at the full breakdown over that timeframe:

• Heroes: 6 - Peony, NY Alfonse, NY Anna, NY Eir, Lif, Mirabilis
• FE1/3: 7 - Winter Marth, Spring Est, Anniversary Caeda, Anniversary Marth, Anniversary Merric, Anniversary Palla, Anniversary Minerva
• FE2: 7 - Legendary Celica, Valentine's Alm, Valentine's Conrad, Valentine's Faye, Valentine's Rudolf, Valentine's Silque, Mila
• FE4: 7 - Altena, Ced, Larcei, Shannan, Travant, Fallen Julia, Legendary Seliph
• FE5: 5 - Eyvel, Mareeta, Osian, Tanya, Kempf
• FE6: 4 - Spring Fir, Spring Idunn, Spring Narcian, Spring Bartre
• FE7: 8 - Winter Nino, Winter Zephiel, Winter Jaffar, Fiora, Leila, Nils, Rath, Heath, Brammimond
• FE8: 4 - Fallen Lyon, Summer Joshua, Summer Lute, Summer Selena
• FE9: 1 - Fallen Ashnard
• FE10: 7 -  NY Lethe, Fallen Ike, Wedding Micaiah, Wedding Nailah, Wedding Rafiel, Summer Mia, Summer Rhys
• Awakening: 6 - Legendary Chrom, Merchant Anna, Emmeryn, Mustafa, Say'ri, Gangrel
• Fates: 9 - NY Selkie, Forrest, Lilith, Midori, Rinkah, Iago, Fallen Corrin M, Wedding Oboro, Wedding Hinata
• 3H: 12 - Winter Sothis, Annette, Bernadetta, Ferdinand, Lysithea, Flame Emperor, Legendary Edelgard, Summer Byleth, Summer Dorothea, Summer Ingrid, Summer Sylvain, Summer Lorenz
• TMS: 5 - Eleonora, Kiria, Mamori, Tsubasa, Itsuki

Back in Book 3, when the Tellius New Heroes banners were FE10, the Tellius seasonals were counted as FE9, even for Sigrun, who had a larger role in FE10. In Book 4, the Tellius seasonals we've been getting have been FE10, even for Rhys, who had a larger role in FE9. I don't think that's a coincidence.

I don't think we're getting another 3H banner this soon. We're getting to the part of the year that could actually be influenced by CYL, and it's certainly influenced by the awareness that they just gave us a bunch of new 3H characters on the summer banner. I don't see another conventional 3H New Heroes banner happening before late September at the earliest.

Speaking of CYL: Now that Awakening Anna got added on the last New Heroes banner, Jill is now the most-voted CYL3 character not in Heroes, and also the most-voted non-3H/OC character on CYL4. I think her odds of getting added are very high.

On CYL4, the highest-voted FE9 characters not yet in the game are:

• 24. Jill
• 71. Shinon
• 114. Sephiran
• 141. Boyd
• 145. Volke
• 157. Lucia
• 175. Stefan
• 181. Dheginsea
• 204. Astrid
• 208. Zihark
• 209. Kurthnaga
• 232. Tormod
• 245. Marcia
• 272. Muarim
• 303. Geoffrey
• 327. Petrine
• 339. Kieran
• 345. Janaff

Of these, Sephiran, Dheginsea, and Kurthnaga would seem very strange on an FE9 banner, since they have much larger roles in FE10 where they actually take to the battlefield, and the former two would also be good fits for mythics. The others seem like fair game, though.

Edited July 10, 2020 by Othin

[Anacybele]

6 hours ago, Sentinel07 said:

I doubt CYL has any effect honestly. They plan these banners out months in advance. We likely would have gotten this TH Summer banner regardless if TH dominated CYL or not.

But the TH summer banner would affect it. I don't think they'd plan that banner and then plan another TH banner literally right after.

[Diovani Bressan]

Heroes with Moonbow? Yeah, I expect Lysithea on that banner. Not sure about the others... maybe Lethe and a 3-4* hero like Python, although we will get BHB with Python on it...

Heroes with Rouse Skills? We don't have that many candidates... being Edelgard, Mereeta, Fallen Lyon, Fallen M Corrin, Perceval and Ferdinand Von Aegir. It's not been that long since we got all these heroes. Edelgard had a rerun of her original banner on May, Mareeta was in the VG banner, Lyon and Corrin were released in May, and Perceval was in a banner and May as well, being "Heroes with Solo Skills", although in Perceval's case the banner started on April and ended in May... But Ferdinand? Yeah, I can see him appearing there.

And that's all the "Heroes with" banners of this calendar... unless I missed something...

I expect a Feh Channel at beginning of August, mainly to announce CYL 4 units and maybe to say what happened to Sothis.

For the New Heroes... I have no guess. I could say "It can be Shadow Dragon/New Mystery since we are also getting BHB Tiki & Nagi", but not always BHB are connected to the current banner. I just want something thatis easy to skip... If it's Tellius, with the loved Jill... What's a super easy skip.

[Othin]

Ooh, I forgot about Mareeta having just been rerun. In that case I'm guessing Edelgard, Ferdinand, and Perceval. 

[EricaofRenais]

Please let Elphin be the dancer TT unit please IS, I know he isn't popular enough to be on the main banner.  I also would love Yashiro on the dancer banner as well.  As to the new heroes banner I hope it is Tellius, with Volug on it as a demote which could be possible if it is a Daein banner with Jill as well hopefully as an ax unit.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

10 hours ago, Anacybele said:

I wasn't though. But okay.

You don't get to decide if someone else was hurt, offended, or felt condescended to by something you said. I felt that way.

9 minutes ago, EricaofRenais said:

Please let Elphin be the dancer TT unit please IS, I know he isn't popular enough to be on the main banner.  I also would love Yashiro on the dancer banner as well.  As to the new heroes banner I hope it is Tellius, with Volug on it as a demote which could be possible if it is a Daein banner with Jill as well hopefully as an ax unit.

I'm actually kinda expecting Elffin within the next banner or two for Binding Blade. Him and Dieck feel like the two biggest male omissions to me.

Edited July 10, 2020 by Fire Emblem Fan

[Anacybele]

Just now, Fire Emblem Fan said:

You don't get to decide if someone else was hurt, offended, or felt condescended to by something you said. I was.

No, but that doesn't mean I'm not allowed to believe that there was nothing wrong with what I said.

I do think Jill ought to be an axe flier rather than lance flier. We have so many lance fliers already and the green pool is still smaller than the other colors.

[Gregster101]

19 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

I do think Jill ought to be an axe flier rather than lance flier. We have so many lance fliers already and the green pool is still smaller than the other colors.

EXACTLY THIS! Please for the love of god let Jill be an axe flier instead of generic lance flier 5623478

[Ice Dragon]

Path of Radiance was the first game that made the dragon knight line use axes and Radiant Dawn was the first game to give them axes as their base weapon, and they even retconned Akaneia's dragon knights (and Narcian) to use axes afterwards, so I really can't imagine them passing up making Jill an axe unit. I would be more surprised to see Jill as a lance unit than an axe unit.

Edited July 10, 2020 by Ice Dragon

[daisy jane]

i just hope Jill is the demote. 

that is all. 

[Othin]

23 minutes ago, daisy jane said:

i just hope Jill is the demote. 

that is all. 

Seems very unlikely, since she's the most popular missing Tellius unit by a considerable margin.

I'm hoping for Marcia as the demote, personally. She seems to be less popular than the likely 5* picks, so that'd be a more likely way for her to get in, and it'd make it easy for me to get her.

[X-Naut]

Despite increasing the summer seasonal banner bloat I'm sort of glad the dancer banner is coming sooner than later, if for the simple fact that it makes a 3H focus a lot less likely. They need more banners, but not all at once and CYL4 belongs to them.

[Sunwoo]

31 minutes ago, Othin said:

Seems very unlikely, since she's the most popular missing Tellius unit by a considerable margin.

I'm hoping for Marcia as the demote, personally. She seems to be less popular than the likely 5* picks, so that'd be a more likely way for her to get in, and it'd make it easy for me to get her.

I'd be totally cool with Marcia being the demote (and was pretty happy to see that all three of my most wanted Tellius units were on your list), but ... well. After they made Fiora the 5-star over Rath, who's more popular than her and in a less saturated class, I can totally see Marcia being a mediocre 5-star while making Boyd, who's more popular than her, the 4-star drop.

[Tybrosion]

19 minutes ago, Sunwoo said:

After they made Fiora the 5-star over Rath, who's more popular than her and in a less saturated class, I can totally see Marcia being a mediocre 5-star while making Boyd, who's more popular than her, the 4-star drop.

And they also did the same to Forrest while the less popular (but female) Midori is a 5*.

Honestly, I’m surprised they defied that trend with Joshua and Lute on the first summer banner but I suppose they did throw Josh under the bus back in 2017 (and he’s still waiting for his turn for a refine too).

[Humanoid]

It'd be a bit pointless to make Jill an axe flier if then in the same banner the blue slot is freed up to add ...a lance flier.

That said, I don't know the Tellius cast well enough to suggest a suitable lance infantry or blue mage/bow/dagger as an alternative.

[Othin]

30 minutes ago, Humanoid said:

It'd be a bit pointless to make Jill an axe flier if then in the same banner the blue slot is freed up to add ...a lance flier.

That said, I don't know the Tellius cast well enough to suggest a suitable lance infantry or blue mage/bow/dagger as an alternative.

There's plenty of point, it'd make the highly-anticipated Jill more exciting while also making it possible to feature Marcia alongside her.

If they want a blue unit that isn't a lance flier, regular Ilyana as a blue tome infantry seems like the most likely. Or they could just make Shinon or Volke a blue bow/dagger user.

[Gregster101]

My prediction for a Tellius banner if we do get one is Jill as a green axe flier, Zihark as a red sword infantry, Shinon as a colorless bow infantry, and Ilyana as a blue tome infantry. As much as I love Marcia and consider her my second favorite Tellius girl after Jill, I don't know how likely she is. Then again, I guess since Ilyana is technically already in the game, someone else could show up on the banner instead of her like Marcia.

As for the GHB, normally I would say Petrine, but after they added Mustafa, I'm gonna be bold and say I think Shiharim should be the GHB to go along with Jill.

[Ice Dragon]

8 minutes ago, Othin said:

If they want a blue unit that isn't a lance flier, regular Ilyana as a blue tome infantry seems like the most likely. Or they could just make Shinon or Volke a blue bow/dagger user.

Or Geoffrey.

 

42 minutes ago, Humanoid said:

That said, I don't know the Tellius cast well enough to suggest a suitable lance infantry or blue mage/bow/dagger as an alternative.

Ilyana is the only thunder mage in both games. Bow options are Shinon and Rolf for infantry and Astrid for cavalry. Dagger has young Sothe, Volke, and Heather.

Gatrie and Tauroneo are options for lance armor. Lance cavalry has Geoffrey and Fiona.

Lance infantry has Aran, Devdan, and Danved, but let's be honest; none of them have a chance.

[Othin]

2 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Or Geoffrey.

 

Ilyana is the only thunder mage in both games. Bow options are Shinon and Rolf for infantry and Astrid for cavalry. Dagger has young Sothe, Volke, and Heather.

Gatrie and Tauroneo are options for lance armor. Lance cavalry has Geoffrey and Fiona.

Lance infantry has Aran, Devdan, and Danved, but let's be honest; none of them have a chance.

Huh, I forgot about Gatrie. He's not exactly popular, but he could make sense to feature alongside Shinon. That'd be neat.

[Humanoid]

Blue cavalry archer? Sold! Red would be a new class too though, so either way works. Come to think of it, red might be better to block off any sword infantries.

Assembling a theoretical line-up, let's see... red horse archer Astrid, Ilyana, Jill, Volke I guess? If Shinon is willing to get on a horse then he should get the red slot I suppose based on voting.

Mind you, this list is assembled from looking at the names mentioned on this page and punching them into the wiki to see their classes. I don't know anything about them as characters.

Edited July 10, 2020 by Humanoid

[Othin]

27 minutes ago, Humanoid said:

Blue cavalry archer? Sold! Red would be a new class too though, so either way works. Come to think of it, red might be better to block off any sword infantries.

Assembling a theoretical line-up, let's see... red horse archer Astrid, Ilyana, Jill, Volke I guess? If Shinon is willing to get on a horse then he should get the red slot I suppose based on voting.

Mind you, this list is assembled from looking at the names mentioned on this page and punching them into the wiki to see their classes. I don't know anything about them as characters.

Shinon has no horse access in the Tellius games. 

Shinon is also a lot more popular than the other non-Jill missing Tellius units, so I'd expect him as a top candidate. Particularly over Volke, who's another guy with the same color access. 

[Anacybele]

47 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Lance infantry has Aran, Devdan, and Danved, but let's be honest; none of them have a chance.

Dude, we got Mustafa in the game. ANYBODY has a chance at this point. lol

Kieran is more needed than any lance units imo. He's the rare axe cavalry whom we still get VERY little of.

[X-Naut]

1 hour ago, Anacybele said:

Dude, we got Mustafa in the game. ANYBODY has a chance at this point. lol

Kieran is more needed than any lance units imo. He's the rare axe cavalry whom we still get VERY little of.

Mustafa has popularity behind him as a sympathetic enemy boss whereas Aran and Dadven have far thinner followings.

Kieran would fit right in on a Crimean Royal Knights banner but I'd be very surprised if he shared a banner with Jill (assuming axes) or the Greil Mercs. Granted we did get a Catria alt on an Echoes banner for the army she wasn't in but it depends on whether they feel like it.

[Tybrosion]

1 hour ago, Anacybele said:

Dude, we got Mustafa in the game. ANYBODY has a chance at this point. lol

Mustafa got a little over a thousand votes in the first CYL, while both Devdan and Danved do not even have a thousand votes all-time (only 768 and 517, respectively). They really will be lucky to even get in at all, especially since Tellius still has a lot missing (unlike Awakening).