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New Event Calendar: July-August 2020


Othin
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3 minutes ago, X-Naut said:

Mustafa has popularity behind him as a sympathetic enemy boss whereas Aran and Dadven have far thinner followings.

Kieran would fit right in on a Crimean Royal Knights banner but I'd be very surprised if he shared a banner with Jill (assuming axes) or the Greil Mercs. Granted we did get a Catria alt on an Echoes banner for the army she wasn't in but it depends on whether they feel like it.

 

1 minute ago, Tybrosion said:

Mustafa got a little over a thousand votes in the first CYL, while both Devdan and Danved do not even have a thousand votes all-time (only 768 and 517, respectively). They really will be lucky to even get in at all, especially since Tellius still has a lot missing (unlike Awakening). 

Since we have Mustafa, what would you say are the odds of the GHB being Shiharim to go along with Jill?

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2 minutes ago, Gregster101 said:

Since we have Mustafa, what would you say are the odds of the GHB being Shiharim to go along with Jill?

Given that Shiharam isn't even in CYL, I'm going to say not likely at best. The presence of Altina and Bramimond grants him a chance of course, but I'm don't think that he is significant enough to have that much of a chance especially when Petrine is still an option. Besides, why should IS bother digging Shiharam up when they can just fuck Shinon over instead and make him the mediocre GHB unit?

I'm still bitter and cynical after what happened to Haar, if you couldn't tell.

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1 minute ago, Tybrosion said:

Given that Shiharam isn't even in CYL, I'm going to say not likely at best. The presence of Altina and Bramimond grants him a chance of course, but I'm don't think that he is significant enough to have that much of a chance especially when Petrine is still an option. Besides, why should IS bother digging Shiharam up when they can just fuck Shinon over instead and make him the mediocre GHB unit?

I'm still bitter and cynical after what happened to Haar, if you couldn't tell.

Shiharim isn't votable in CYL? What the heck. How come Mustafa and fucking Brigand Boss are votable but not Shiharim?

 

And yeah, I'm still mad over them butchering Haar as well.

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So the New Heroes banner is set to launch 7/20, a Monday. Do we have a pattern for which night trailers go up for Monday banners? I remember something about certain weekend days not getting used for trailers but I forget how exactly that works out.

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14 minutes ago, Gregster101 said:

Shiharim isn't votable in CYL? What the heck. How come Mustafa and fucking Brigand Boss are votable but not Shiharim?

No, but he also isn’t the only one. Others include Bryce, Levail, Ludveck, Numida, that wyvern lord boss in PoR who dies to his own boulder traps who was enough of a meme that he got a Cipher card, and of course Lekain.

Edited by Tybrosion
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Moonbow candidates:

  • Red 3-4*: Palla, Athena
  • Blue 3-4*: Odin
  • Green 3-4: Python
  • Red 5*: Lysithea
  • Blue 5*: Ephraim, Tana, Nephenee, Ishtar, Tsubasa
  • Green 5*: Sonya, Flying Nino, Sue, Hilda, Gerik

Lysithea already made perfect sense, but this just makes it even clearer. Blue is probably Tsubasa, she's by far the newest of them and while she's been rerun on a legendary banner, she hasn't been on a skill banner yet. Green could be Python, he's a demote but he hasn't gotten a rerun yet while Hilda and Gerik should both be off the table due to overlap.

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29 minutes ago, Tybrosion said:

No, but he also isn’t the only one. Others include Bryce, Levail, Ludveck, Numida, that wyvern lord boss in PoR who dies to his own boulder traps who was enough of a meme that he got a Cipher card, and of course Lekain.

You know I am surprised Lekain isn't a votable option in CYL considering he has official art unlike the other unvotable characters, as well as being the closest thing RD has to a main villain outside of Sephiran. I wouldn't vote for him, but still

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35 minutes ago, Othin said:

Moonbow candidates:

  • Red 3-4*: Palla, Athena
  • Blue 3-4*: Odin
  • Green 3-4: Python
  • Red 5*: Lysithea
  • Blue 5*: Ephraim, Tana, Nephenee, Ishtar, Tsubasa
  • Green 5*: Sonya, Flying Nino, Sue, Hilda, Gerik

Lysithea already made perfect sense, but this just makes it even clearer. Blue is probably Tsubasa, she's by far the newest of them and while she's been rerun on a legendary banner, she hasn't been on a skill banner yet. Green could be Python, he's a demote but he hasn't gotten a rerun yet while Hilda and Gerik should both be off the table due to overlap.

Totally agree with Tsubasa and Lysithea. I am actually leaning toward Python not being on this banner because he has the BHB with Forysth coming up. I have noticed, however, that Book 2 5-star exclusives have been making their appearance on random banners, so I'm leaning towards either Flying Nino or Ishtar.

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4 minutes ago, SockPuppet said:

Totally agree with Tsubasa and Lysithea. I am actually leaning toward Python not being on this banner because he has the BHB with Forysth coming up. I have noticed, however, that Book 2 5-star exclusives have been making their appearance on random banners, so I'm leaning towards either Flying Nino or Ishtar.

Ooh, I forgot about the BHB. I'll guess Nino, then.

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15 minutes ago, Etrurian emperor said:

If I'm going to keep guessing a Genealogy gen one banner to get things up to parity with gen two then I'll eventually be right....right? 

I mean as much as I would prefer a Gen 2 banner just cuz of Patty and I'm still mad about her not being on the previous banner with Shannan btw, it does probably make sense for the next FE4 banner to be Gen 1 so we can get characters like Lex and Azel. Or best case scenario, a banner with characters from both Gen 1 and 2, though I doubt it. 

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44 minutes ago, Etrurian emperor said:

If I'm going to keep guessing a Genealogy gen one banner to get things up to parity with gen two then I'll eventually be right....right? 

While I'm hoping for (and expecting) FE9 this time around, FE4 Gen 1 is definitely the next thing I'm hoping for after it and the only other thing I can imagine having any possible justification for taking the July slot.

That said, I'm not sure another Gen 1 banner would actually get things more in parity. Right now, Gen 1 has 13 units in Heroes, consisting of 13 unique characters and 11 unique playables. Even if you include the relevant FE5 units (Leif x2, Finn, Nanna, Soiree Ishtar), Gen 2 has 19 units in Heroes but just 14 unique characters and 11 unique playables, pretty much the same as Gen 1. Gen 1 doesn't have alts while Gen 2 does, but in terms of character counts, they're essentially tied. The next Gen 1 banner should put it in a solid lead, and then we'll need another Gen 2 banner to bring them back to parity. (Both of which I'm very much hoping for, along with Gen 1 taking some seasonal/legendary slots to catch up in that regard.)

Edit: Oh, yeah, counting it that way means Finn counts for Gen 1 as well. So Gen 1 actually has more of its playable cast in Heroes than Gen 2 as things already stand.

Edited by Othin
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9 hours ago, Othin said:

Shinon has no horse access in the Tellius games. 

Shinon is also a lot more popular than the other non-Jill missing Tellius units, so I'd expect him as a top candidate. Particularly over Volke, who's another guy with the same color access. 

Undoubtedly Shinon "deserves" the slot more based on voting, but I was reluctant to name two archers in the same banner. Naturally given the choice I will always pick the mounted archer over the infantry one.

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Moonbow banner... Lysithea?

This is what I kinda don't hope... because I'm busted now. Need and want a +atk Lys so badly.

Oh, Tsubasa has moonbow too. She's my most wanted 5* exclusive blue I don't have, so 100% reason for me to pull from this banner.

My third guess is Gerik who I have, but wouldn't mind to get more copies because he has amazing skills to pass.

 

As for the New Heroes banner I think it'll be something no one would expect like Tokyo Mirage Sessions.

True, FE10 hasn't had a banner in this book yet, but I could imagine this could become an appetizer for the new book.

Edited by Falcom Knight
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Personally, my FE4 banner hopes are Azelle/Erinys/Lex/Brigid + Chulainn GHB for Gen 1 and Ulster/Tine/Arthur/Patty + Arion GHB for Gen 2.

The neat thing is that it would pretty thoroughly clean out FE4 of relevant characters, but that's also the downside. It wouldn't leave any remaining characters who got above 300 votes on CYL4, so it's hard to imagine what they'd do for any more banners past those. So unless that'd lead to some of the remaining characters really starting to spike, I could see those being the last proper FE4 banners for the foreseeable future, with the remaining characters needing to hijack seasonal banners for a shot at getting in. Which, honestly, is good enough in my book.

Now I'm curious what it'd take to get other games to that point. Looking at CYL4 votes:

  • Above 1000:
    • 3 Heroes: Plumeria, Triandra, Hel
    • 2 FE1/3: Kris M, Xane
    • 1 FE2: Luthier
    • 1 FE4: Brigid
    • 0 FE5
    • 2 FE6: Merlinus, Dieck
    • 3 FE7: Erk, Athos, Sain
    • 0 FE8
    • 6 FE9/10: Jill, Jorge, Shinon, Sephiran, Boyd, Volke
    • 1 FE13: Severa
    • 2 FE14: Nyx, Dwyer
    • 18 3H: Marianne, Felix, Ashe, Rhea, Linhardt, Shamir, Seiros, Dedue, Flayn, Caspar, Seteth, Leonie, Nemesis, Anna, Catherine, Cornelia, Manuela, Raphael, Jeralt
    • 4 TMS: Tiki, Maiko, Touma+Cain, Yashiro+Navarre
  • Between 300 and 1000:
    • 1 Heroes: Freyr
    • 12 FE1/3: Nyna, Kris F, Elice, Anna, Julian, Wolf, Matthis, Lena, Medeus, Samuel, Malice, Lorenz
    • 7 FE2: Tatiana, Brigand Boss, Fernand, Zeke, Kamui, Deen, Hestia
    • 8 FE4: Erinys, Tine, Azelle, Patty, Lex, Arthur, Ulster, Arion
    • 5 FE5: Sara, Asbel, Ronan, Galzus, Linoan
    • 5 FE6: Guinivere, Gonzalez, Melady, Hugh, Niime
    • 9 FE7: Limstella, Guy, Sonia, Kent, Nergal, Farina, Oswin, Merlinus, Wil
    • 11 FE8: Knoll, Colm, Gilliam, Artur, Vanessa, Duessel, Neimi, Natasha, Franz, Saleh, Ismare
    • 22 FE9/10: Lucia, Pelleas, Stefan, Dheginsea, Edward, Astrid, Zihark, Kurthnaga, Volug, Tormod, Vika, Marcia, Ashera, Muarim, Heather, Geoffrey, Skrimir, Petrine, Kieran, Meg, Janaff, Aran
    • 9 FE13: Priam, Miriel, Flavia, Gregor, Ricken, Kellam, Vaike, Basilio, Laurent
    • 12 FE14: Orochi, Anankos, Scarlet, Mozu, Reina, Shura, Benny, Arete, Sophie, Mitami, Kiragi, Layla
    • 7 3H: Ignatz, Jeritza, Rodrigue, Cyril, Alois, Monica, Judith
    • 2 TMS: Ayaha+Aversa, Barry
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1 minute ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

Replace Brigid with Edain and that's my hope as well!

I don't think Brigid is going anywhere, she's the most popular missing FE4 character by far. I could see Edain taking Erinys's spot alongside her sister if they decide they want to save Erinys for a future FE4 banner, though. Although in that case Edain would probably be the demote and I want it to be Azelle.

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4 hours ago, Othin said:

I don't think Brigid is going anywhere, she's the most popular missing FE4 character by far. I could see Edain taking Erinys's spot alongside her sister if they decide they want to save Erinys for a future FE4 banner, though. Although in that case Edain would probably be the demote and I want it to be Azelle.

I'm not very familiar with FE 4 & 5, but isn't Brigid also Eyvel, who is in the game already? 

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13 minutes ago, uhmuzing said:

I'm not very familiar with FE 4 & 5, but isn't Brigid also Eyvel, who is in the game already? 

Yes and no. Brigid is a princess who uses the legendary bow Yewfelle. Eyvel is an amnesiac swordmaster who leads the Fiana militia. Eyvel used to be Brigid before losing her memories, and she apparently regains her memories some time after the events of FE4/5, but during the events of the two games, Brigid and Eyvel have completely different memories and abilities. They are, for all intents and purposes, separate people.

In CYL3, before Eyvel was added, Eyvel got 321 votes while Brigid got 1,012. In CYL4, after Eyvel was added, Eyvel dropped to 106 votes while Brigid got 1,026, roughly maintaining her vote count and position relative to other missing FE4 characters. This suggests that Brigid fans do not consider Eyvel a substitute for Brigid.

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Is it a pretty solid bet that the seasonal heroes on 8/7 will be the dancing/performance banner? 
 

I know dancer Felix is a long shot with the recent summer 3H units, but he’s still a dream unit I’d love to have. 
 

I’ve enjoyed all the dancing units though so I’m sure it’ll be interesting! 

Edited by Liliesgrace
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1 hour ago, Liliesgrace said:

Is it a pretty solid bet that the seasonal heroes on 8/7 will be the dancing/performance banner? 
 

I know dancer Felix is a long shot with the recent summer 3H units, but he’s still a dream unit I’d love to have. 
 

I’ve enjoyed all the dancing units though so I’m sure it’ll be interesting! 

It's certainly what the precedent points to. So far, each year, the dancer banner has been the only banner in August/September. It was in August in 2018, and in September in 2017 and 2019.

So, unless they make a new seasonal theme, that seems like the default scenario. Who knows if it'll actually play out that way, though.

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17 hours ago, Liliesgrace said:

Is it a pretty solid bet that the seasonal heroes on 8/7 will be the dancing/performance banner? 
 

I know dancer Felix is a long shot with the recent summer 3H units, but he’s still a dream unit I’d love to have. 
 

Dancer Felix and dancer Dimitri would make for a very... interesting banner, that's for sure. I'd love to see that.

16 hours ago, Othin said:

It's certainly what the precedent points to. So far, each year, the dancer banner has been the only banner in August/September. It was in August in 2018, and in September in 2017 and 2019.

If not for the summer Three Houses banner, I'd be 100% sure that the August seasonal banner would have Three Houses characters. Now, honestly, I think anything's up for grabs. I feel like they might not even have a dancer banner in August, just because we never got a random themed seasonal banner (like Hot Springs or Picnic), and the potential for Three Houses Heron Cup dancers is probably too much for IS to pass up, but having two seasonals from the same series back to back would be kinda awkward. 

I really hope we have Three Houses dancers in August though.

Edited by SirErrant
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I wouldn't be surprised if the next dancer banner is based on 3H's Heron Cup or if all of the characters on there are 3H-based. 3H is in a bit of a ... unique situation, in which they are the first completely new game to be released during Heroes' lifetime. Echoes doesn't really count because it technically existed in the form of Gaiden before Heroes, which makes it not an entirely new entry.

Also, unless my memory is wrong, while all of the Echoes characters got a popularity boost from the game being remade it was Celica and Alm who were the biggest winners. I don't recall the other Echoes characters making it quite as high up as some of the 3H cast did. Like ... the Blue Lions dudes really pushed their way into the top 20, and some of the girls also did really well too. I wouldn't be surprised if 3H gets quite a few popular characters debuting as seasonal units who get their later forms down the line.

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30 minutes ago, Sunwoo said:

I wouldn't be surprised if the next dancer banner is based on 3H's Heron Cup or if all of the characters on there are 3H-based. 3H is in a bit of a ... unique situation, in which they are the first completely new game to be released during Heroes' lifetime. Echoes doesn't really count because it technically existed in the form of Gaiden before Heroes, which makes it not an entirely new entry.

Also, unless my memory is wrong, while all of the Echoes characters got a popularity boost from the game being remade it was Celica and Alm who were the biggest winners. I don't recall the other Echoes characters making it quite as high up as some of the 3H cast did. Like ... the Blue Lions dudes really pushed their way into the top 20, and some of the girls also did really well too. I wouldn't be surprised if 3H gets quite a few popular characters debuting as seasonal units who get their later forms down the line.

I'd be surprised if it was based on the White Heron Cup with how early in the year it is now, that's in December. It's more likely it'll be another summer festival akin to the 2018 banner. That and I really don't want another 3H dominated seasonal right after we just got one and on the heels of them owning CYL4.

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