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July 2020 New Heroes Speculation


July 2020 New Heroes  

44 members have voted

  1. 1. What game are you predicting the banner to be based on?

    • Shadow Dragon/New Mystery
      4
    • Gaiden/SoV
      3
    • Geneology of the Holy War
      2
    • Thracia 776
      1
    • Binding Blade
      1
    • Blazing Sword
      0
    • Sacred Stones
      0
    • Path of Radiance/Radiant Dawn
      21
    • Awakening
      0
    • Fates
      1
    • Three Houses
      9
    • Warriors
      1
    • Tokyo Mirage Sessions
      1
    • Cipher
      0
    • Original
      0
    • Multiple games/themed
      0
  2. 2. What game would you want it to be for?

    • Shadow Dragon/New Mystery
      3
    • Gaiden/SoV
      3
    • Geneology of the Holy War
      1
    • Thracia 776
      1
    • Binding Blade
      1
    • Blazing Sword
      3
    • Sacred Stones
      0
    • Path of Radiance/Radiant Dawn
      15
    • Awakening
      0
    • Fates
      1
    • Three Houses
      5
    • Warriors
      0
    • Tokyo Mirage Sessions
      3
    • Cipher
      3
    • Original
      1
    • Multiple games/themed
      4

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  • Poll closed on 07/16/2020 at 05:10 PM

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3H or Archanea are my hopes~ Seems like Tellius gets new units every other Banner so I'd honestly like a break from Tellius but it'd be an easy skip for me to save some Orbs so I wouldn't mind it this month~

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I never feel one way or another about New Heroes. It's nice knowing they will always be around, so I don't panic as much as I do when my faves get seasonals. That said, I do have so many units I wanna build up.

If it's TH, which it might, I want Ashe or Caspar, though I expect Felix, Marianne, Dedue and Linhardt first and foremost. The summer units may indeed just be a way to tide their fans over for the NEXT next banner. 

Tellius... there are a couple I want. I would love Rhys, but his summer form is cute and really satisfies me /for now/, but I would love regular Rolf and, of course, Boyd. Geoffrey and Lucia are also welcome. Of course, I suspect Jill at long last and Shinnon and Marcia right behind. 

But yeah, like most everyone here, my bets are on these 2.

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How about they come of out left field and a few days before this NH, IS announces the next FE and throws a far ahead of actual release teaser banner at us? 😉

No, it's not likely if you assume they've been concentrating on a 4/6 Remake, and hence have plenty o' characters in already. Nintendo is short on new games though for the future and I hope August fills in the void with awesome announcements.

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9 hours ago, Othin said:

OCs seem to all be mythics now: with some of them even joining otherwise normal New Heroes banners, I'm not sure they're likely to have more dedicated OC banners. 

There are still plenty of villains left in the current book, so I would assume that a villains banner will be brought before closing the book.

August might be too early though.

I don't hope they will bring up random mythics like Mirabilis to the remaining new heroes banners till the end because they just steal spots of new heroes from regular games.

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6 hours ago, Falcom Knight said:

There are still plenty of villains left in the current book, so I would assume that a villains banner will be brought before closing the book.

August might be too early though.

I don't hope they will bring up random mythics like Mirabilis to the remaining new heroes banners till the end because they just steal spots of new heroes from regular games.

Villains like Plumeria and Triandra could get the Mirabilis treatment, while Freja and Freyr could show up on regular mythic banners.

Peony and Mirabilis did not steal anyone's spot. A New Heroes banner typically adds 4 units to the summoning pool and 1 unit to the grail roster. By having Tania and Emmeryn as extra demotes, both of those banners met that standard. (Mareeta/Osian/Eyvel/Tania+Kempf, and Anna/Say'ri/Mustafa/Emmeryn+Gangrel.) On the other hand, devoting an entire New Heroes banner slot to an OC banner would mean stealing the spots of 5 regular characters, which I would be quite opposed to.

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1 hour ago, Othin said:

Peony and Mirabilis did not steal anyone's spot. A New Heroes banner typically adds 4 units to the summoning pool and 1 unit to the grail roster. By having Tania and Emmeryn as extra demotes, both of those banners met that standard. (Mareeta/Osian/Eyvel/Tania+Kempf, and Anna/Say'ri/Mustafa/Emmeryn+Gangrel.)

All the other banners with an extra demote added 5 pool units and 1 grail unit. With the introduction of the 4* focus, banners reverted to the usual 4 pool and 1 grail, so Mirabilis is an extra unit, but Peony took the place of a 5th pool unit.

 

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1 hour ago, Baldrick said:

All the other banners with an extra demote added 5 pool units and 1 grail unit. With the introduction of the 4* focus, banners reverted to the usual 4 pool and 1 grail, so Mirabilis is an extra unit, but Peony took the place of a 5th pool unit.

 

Four New Heroes banners added 5 pool units and 1 grail unit: Three Houses (Byleth M), The Chosen Ones (Bantu), Zofia's Call (Valbar), and Guardians of Peace (Chad). We've also gotten three New Heroes banners that added 4 pool units, 1 grail unit, and 1 limited unit: Desert Mercenaries (Ephraim and Ross), Peony and More (Peony and Tania), and Mirabilis and More (Mirabilis and Emmeryn). All 15 of the other New Heroes banners added since the start of Book 3 have had 4 pool units and 1 grail unit.

5 pool units is not, in any sense, a standard. The standard is 4 pool units, and all the New Heroes banners so far to also introduce limited units have held to that standard. The fact that a few banners in late Book 3 had an extra pool unit does not mean any of the banners with limited units would have had a 5th if not for that limited unit. At the time that was happening, it seemed like it was becoming a standard, but it wasn't.

If any limited unit took the spot of a pool unit, it's Ephraim, since he was right in the middle of the 5-pool banners. You could make a case for Peony, since she directly followed those banners, but it seems they just had no plan to continue the 5-pool lineups into Book 4. Imagine if Peony had been separated from the New Heroes banner and instead featured on a Hero Fest, leaving a banner of Mareeta/Osian/Eyvel/Tania and no fifth unit. The lack of a direct demote would have been noteworthy, but no more so than when the FE4 banner worked the same way a month later.

Since the beginnings of Book 4 and 2020, there have been no banners with 5 pool units. Now that we're well into this era, with no signs of it changing, I don't see any possible way to claim that Mirabilis's banner or any future banner like it would have plausibly had a 5th pool unit if not for having an OC. (Edit: Rereading, I see that you said the same thing, so never mind.)

While we're comparing time periods, I have to think back to 2018. February, March, May, and October of that year each had only 4 New Heroes total: 3 pool and 1 grail. (The same was true for September and November of 2017.) I remember, at the time, considering the May 2018 lineup surprisingly good because all 4 of its New Heroes were actual new characters rather than any of them being alts - something that was not the case for February or March. Things have gotten so much better since then.

Edited by Othin
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2 hours ago, Othin said:

Villains like Plumeria and Triandra could get the Mirabilis treatment, while Freja and Freyr could show up on regular mythic banners.

Peony and Mirabilis did not steal anyone's spot. A New Heroes banner typically adds 4 units to the summoning pool and 1 unit to the grail roster. By having Tania and Emmeryn as extra demotes, both of those banners met that standard. (Mareeta/Osian/Eyvel/Tania+Kempf, and Anna/Say'ri/Mustafa/Emmeryn+Gangrel.) On the other hand, devoting an entire New Heroes banner slot to an OC banner would mean stealing the spots of 5 regular characters, which I would be quite opposed to.

Oh, I forgot there have been 3-4* instant demotes.

But I think this is also past since I haven't seen this lately.

 

Stealing the character's spotlight was not quite accurately worded, rather stealing the story and music.

I was miffed when no FE5 music was played in the FE5 banner with Peony.

In the Mirabilis banner FE13 music was played on the other hand.

 

A villain banner would feature four regular characters from Heroes after all.

Ok, I name its child Heroes banner from now on to prevent misunderstandings.

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7 minutes ago, Falcom Knight said:

Oh, I forgot there have been 3-4* instant demotes.

But I think this is also past since I haven't seen this lately.

 

Stealing the character's spotlight was not quite accurately worded, rather stealing the story and music.

I was miffed when no FE5 music was played in the FE5 banner with Peony.

In the Mirabilis banner FE13 music was played on the other hand.

 

A villain banner would feature four regular characters from Heroes after all.

Ok, I name its child Heroes banner from now on to prevent misunderstandings.

There were no 3-4* instant demotes for several months, then Emmeryn showed up alongside the Mirabilis banner. It does not appear to be a coincidence: Emmeryn seems specifically meant to replace the banner slot Mirabilis took, so we'd still have the same number of proper FE13 New Heroes. So I assume the same would go for similar banners in the future, although I'd certainly be unhappy if that turns out to not be the case.

That's fair about the FE5 banner music.

I don't think I said anything about Heroes villains specifically, only about Heroes banners in general.

Edited by Othin
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14 hours ago, Othin said:

Four New Heroes banners added 5 pool units and 1 grail unit: Three Houses (Byleth M), The Chosen Ones (Bantu), Zofia's Call (Valbar), and Guardians of Peace (Chad). We've also gotten three New Heroes banners that added 4 pool units, 1 grail unit, and 1 limited unit: Desert Mercenaries (Ephraim and Ross), Peony and More (Peony and Tania), and Mirabilis and More (Mirabilis and Emmeryn). All 15 of the other New Heroes banners added since the start of Book 3 have had 4 pool units and 1 grail unit.

My mistake, I did say pool units but I don’t really care about that. My personal problem with Peony is not that she’s limited, but that she’s not a Thracia character.

Quote

The fact that a few banners in late Book 3 had an extra pool unit does not mean any of the banners with limited units would have had a 5th if not for that limited unit. At the time that was happening, it seemed like it was becoming a standard, but it wasn't.

That’s another difference between The situation of Peony and Mirabilis. The former banner reverted to the standard of 5 units per game per banner that had been re-established by the time of the latter banner.

Quote

If any limited unit took the spot of a pool unit, it's Ephraim, since he was right in the middle of the 5-pool banners. You could make a case for Peony, since she directly followed those banners, but it seems they just had no plan to continue the 5-pool lineups into Book 4.

But they did continue the instant demote, the reason the standard was deviated from, into Book 4. A more coherent plan would have been to introduce 4* focus at the start of book 4 and and keep instant demotes a book 3 thing.

Quote

Imagine if Peony had been separated from the New Heroes banner and instead featured on a Hero Fest, leaving a banner of Mareeta/Osian/Eyvel/Tania and no fifth unit. The lack of a direct demote would have been noteworthy, but no more so than when the FE4 banner worked the same way a month later.

That banner is noteworthy - it’s the only book 4 banner with a demote but no 4* focus, so Altenna is the only unit in the 4-5* pool. If the Thracia banner had been like that, it would have been more obvious their plan was “Jugdral doesn’t get to have nice things”.

 

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6 hours ago, Baldrick said:

My mistake, I did say pool units but I don’t really care about that. My personal problem with Peony is not that she’s limited, but that she’s not a Thracia character.

That’s another difference between The situation of Peony and Mirabilis. The former banner reverted to the standard of 5 units per game per banner that had been re-established by the time of the latter banner.

But they did continue the instant demote, the reason the standard was deviated from, into Book 4. A more coherent plan would have been to introduce 4* focus at the start of book 4 and and keep instant demotes a book 3 thing.

That banner is noteworthy - it’s the only book 4 banner with a demote but no 4* focus, so Altenna is the only unit in the 4-5* pool. If the Thracia banner had been like that, it would have been more obvious their plan was “Jugdral doesn’t get to have nice things”.

 

Thracia got 5 characters, like Awakening and Genealogy and every other Book 4 banner. Within Book 4, there is no discrepancy.

Thracia and Awakening, the two games to get instant demotes in Book 4, obviously got them specifically to offset the fact that they each had an OC taking a banner slot. They did not continue "6 characters from a game" into Book 4, and we can see by now that that is a general trait of Book 4 rather than having anything to do with "Jugdral doesn't get to have nice things".

The fact that Altena is the only unit in the 4-5* pool is an odd quirk of the banner sequence combined with the cutoffs they chose for revising how they handle banner demotes and for the April summoning pool revision. It has nothing to do with the FE4 banner not having an instant demote.

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After my spectacular failure at getting the summer Three Houses units I really wanted, I kind of want it to be a banner that I care about.

That said, Dheginsea and Skrimir getting into the game would be seriously cool. Tellius has gone a long while without a regular New Hero banner too, though they have had a very strong presence in the seasonal banners this last year.

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On 7/12/2020 at 9:15 PM, Othin said:

Thracia and Awakening, the two games to get instant demotes in Book 4, obviously got them specifically to offset the fact that they each had an OC taking a banner slot

If that pattern continues, then every banner with an OC mythic has two demotes to offset it. Except for the Thracia banner, naturally.

On 7/12/2020 at 9:15 PM, Othin said:

They did not continue "6 characters from a game" into Book 4, and we can see by now that that is a general trait of Book 4 rather than having anything to do with "Jugdral doesn't get to have nice things".

The 4* focus is a general trait on book 4, but three book 4 New Hero banners missed out. One was TMS, which wouldn’t have had it anyway.

On 7/12/2020 at 9:15 PM, Othin said:

The fact that Altena is the only unit in the 4-5* pool is an odd quirk of the banner sequence combined with the cutoffs they chose for revising how they handle banner demotes and for the April summoning pool revision. It has nothing to do with the FE4 banner not having an instant demote.

The lack of instant demote is not why the Genealogy banner is noteworthy. What I was saying was if Tania had been a normal demote like in your hypothetical, she would be in the 4-5 pool as well.

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7 hours ago, Baldrick said:

 

If that pattern continues, then every banner with an OC mythic has two demotes to offset it. Except for the Thracia banner, naturally.

The 4* focus is a general trait on book 4, but three book 4 New Hero banners missed out. One was TMS, which wouldn’t have had it anyway.

The lack of instant demote is not why the Genealogy banner is noteworthy. What I was saying was if Tania had been a normal demote like in your hypothetical, she would be in the 4-5 pool as well.

It depends on what "the pattern" is. Maybe some future banners along those lines will have an extra 5* like Byleth M in place of a second demote. Maybe they'll all have an "extra" demote like Tania and Emmeryn but the start-of-book ones will be like Thracia in not having a banner demote, to counterbalance the OC on the banner being free. If neither of those things happen, Thracia will certainly be a deviation from other OC-involving banners in having 3 rare units and 1 demote rather than 2 rare units and 2 demotes, but 3 and 1 is the standard for normal banners nowadays anyway so I still don't see cause to complain.

Tania would be in the 4-5* pool in that case, yes. I'm not sure what is relevant about that.

Edited by Othin
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1 hour ago, Othin said:

Tania would be in the 4-5* pool in that case, yes. I'm not sure what is relevant about that.

Being in the 3-4* pool is better than being in the 4-5* pool.

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15 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

 

Being in the 3-4* pool is better than being in the 4-5* pool.

Slightly, yes, but trivially. I still don't see the relevance.

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39 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

 

Being in the 3-4* pool is better than being in the 4-5* pool.

 

23 minutes ago, Othin said:

Slightly, yes, but trivially. I still don't see the relevance.

And here I am wishing that 3 stars were removed from the game entirely. All they do is add an extra 2,000 feather cost to merges/skill inheritance (which is why I stopped promoting them ages ago). The only thing I actually use them for anymore is movement skill fodder.

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33 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

 

And here I am wishing that 3 stars were removed from the game entirely. All they do is add an extra 2,000 feather cost to merges/skill inheritance (which is why I stopped promoting them ages ago). The only thing I actually use them for anymore is movement skill fodder.

Yeah, this is pretty much my feeling. I no longer want to spend the 2k to upgrade them to 4*, so the only real uses I have for them are any skills they already have at 3*. So it's hard for me to care whether or not a unit is available at 3*, although at least it means they aren't clogging up the 5* pool.

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9 hours ago, Othin said:

Slightly, yes, but trivially. I still don't see the relevance.

It is trivial. Eyvel being demoted, Travant getting a prf, either banner getting a 4* focus are all trivial wants as well. Still, they would be nice to have.

I have non-trivial ideas for improving Jugdral’s representation, but they’re too radical. On the other hand, those trivial things shouldn’t be too much to ask for, but apparently they are.

Edited by Baldrick
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I just send all my unwanted 3 star units home and get feathers. Individually, they may not give a lot, but when I go on big summoning sprees, it adds up and helps me quite a bit! It's one reason I was able to +10 Sylvain as soon as I was and I'm so happy to get him there that quickly. He's so awesome. 🥰

Edited by Anacybele
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9 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

I just send all my unwanted 3 star units home and get feathers. Individually, they may not give a lot, but when I go on big summoning sprees, it adds up and helps me quite a bit! It's one reason I was able to +10 Sylvain as soon as I was and I'm so happy to get him there that quickly. He's so awesome. 🥰

I've tended to save them as manuals just in case, but there are certainly a bunch I'm never likely to use. I've been thinking about at some point going through and sending home some 3* manuals for units I have like over 20 copies of, although there are some where I'd make exceptions from even that because their fodder is potentially relevant enough.

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I keep and manual all units I don't intend to use as a base copy, even the 3-stars. Even if I have to spend 2000 feathers to get atk smoke from a 3-star Kaze or something, I like having the fodder on hand in case I need it right now. And I've stopped sending home even the characters with "useless" skill inheritance. Because who knows, someday you just may need shove.

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