Owns Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 (edited) I wanted to start this conversation because I find that many people dislike these types of builds while I'm personally a fan of them, depending on the character. So I wanted to go through what I think makes a good crit build and why, and hopefully convince more people to give them a chance. In the end crits come down to chance, and I think that's why many people avoid them because they prefer 'more reliable' builds like brave attacks with enough Mt to ORKO. While I agree that a guaranteed kill is always favorable over something that is chance-based, not many characters can actually pull that off. This leads to players doing what I call the Juggernaut approach: "who should I recruit for X route?" The answer always falls down to Sylvain, Leonie, Lysithea, Ferdinand, Felix, Shamir, Cyril etc., basically anyone who can pull off brave skills pretty well (Swift Strikes, Hunter's Volley, Point-Blank-Volley, Fierce-Iron-Fists, etc.). Then comes, "what should I do with Ashe/Ingrid/Ignatz/Bernie" and any other poor shmuck who was designed with high speed/dex but low str and the standard answer usually lies between an evade tank incapable of anything else (poor Ingrid) or Sniper for Hunter's Volley, if not recruit someone else to use entirely. Don't get me wrong, all the above is sound and good advice because it works. Especially the Hunter's Volley approach for the bow boon characters, but I wanted to take a look at the mechanics (and numbers) behind crits and hopefully shed a light on how to maximize them. At the same time I'll look at the value of the Dex (and Lck by analogy) for such builds. Okay so to start off, Crit = (Dex + Lck) / 2. Which as many point out, means you only add 0.5% chance to crit with each Dex point and from that many conclude that Dex sucks. The thing is, with these types of things you want to maximize your chance to crit and there's two ways to do so: 1) Increase your crit chance via Dex, Lck, and Crit from abilities/weapons. 2) Increase you chance of landing a crit by actually hitting more frequently. If you've ever played Rogue type classes in MMORPGs or other games you might recall those crit-relying units always having higher attack speed or what comes down to more hits in the same amount of time. The reason here being that the more attempts you can make "per turn", the more you're likely to crit, and this goes up in a non-linear fashion. Take a look at the graph below which shows your chance of triggering at least 1 crit out of the number of hits you make in 1 action: Edit: I made reference plots of effective crits from some of these cases taking into account hit as well. They are posted further down in this thread. [Apologies for any color-blind people seeing this, higher hit goes up in the curves, sequentially]. So while the battle predictor tells you your "Crit chance per hit", the above plot is the actual "Effective Crit" for the entire attack. While yes, "a point in Dex only adds 0.5% chance to crit", that's only true for single hits. If you are getting more hits, then you can actually get more than 1% chance to crit per point of Dex (and Lck), depending on how high your crit already is. At lower values, each point of Dex (and Lck) contributes more towards your chance. The next plot might be a little more confusing, it shows how much each added point of Dex (or Lck) adds to your chance to crit. Meaning if you're at 21 Dex for example, the y-axis value is how much Crit you'd gain going from 20 Dex to 21 Dex, etc. Okay so what does all this mean? Well it means that the first plot is the "effective" Crit you're getting depending on how many hits you land. Clearly, it's a lot easier to land "at least 1 crit" the more chances you can attack, and often times this is all you need for these lower str characters to get a ORKO. Not on the toughest enemies like armored units, grapplers, warriors and war masters, but most anyone else (like mages, archers, thieves, and when using effective weapons). It also means that the value of Dex can be higher than 0.5% chance to crit if you make more attempts. For example, Dedue or Alois using One-Two Punch with only a 20 displayed crit chance, is actually a 60% of getting a crit (or roughly 35% chance of getting a crit in the first round of double punches). This is why for example using Hunter's Volley is such a great strategy for some of these characters. It not only guarantees 2 hits, but also adds 10 to Crit. On top of that Snipers tend to have high dex/lck stats making it fairly easy to land at least 1 crit with Hunter's Volley, especially with a crit bow. This also explains why Felix wielding gauntlets can land at least 1 crit with nearly every attack as you get close to the end game, because he has high Dex, and Spd allowing him to frequently get x4 hits with a good base crit chance. It also means, that you can land a stupid amount of crits using Astra combined with high crit chance. This is the real reason why Astra costs so much durability, not the mediocre 1.5x base damage which would suck if that was all. Finally I wanted to look at another interesting skill and how it looks under this type of analysis: Lethality. So Lethality triggers as Dex/4, which sucks, unless? Well here's the graph: Suddenly it doesn't look too bad for an insta-kill ability if you combine it with Astra. Wait, what? I can use an unlimited Rusted Sword to get kills with 1/4 to 1/3 chance? (Okay maybe don't since they weigh 20, ruining your avoid, but a cheap Training Sword works too). At 22-23 Dex you get a 1/4 chance of Lethality using Astra, while you need a 31 Dex for a 1/3 chance (using Astra). That's sounds pretty amazing to me (and like a lot of fun). Low str characters, can typically easily evade axe wielding enemies but deal little to no damage to them, why not take that chance if they have nothing better to do on that turn? Admittedly, I don't know if Lethality can trigger if you're only doing 0 damage. The only reason I say this is because I noticed monster barriers don't get hurt if you do 0 damage, so idk. So ultimately, should you go with str or dex? Well you want a balance of both since even if you crit you'll only be dealing 3x damage and if that damage is only 10 you're not getting a ORKO either way. That said, if you're at this junction of needing "at least 1 crit to ORKO" then you want to maximize Dex/Lck as well as "No. of Hits". Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that usually, these low str characters are in this situation of needing at least 1 crit, unless they have Death Blow and using Hunter's Volley against a flier. And Deathblow can be quite out of the way for some of them (and unnecessary if you build crits). From my experience though, honestly anything above 70 Crit (as displayed in the battle-prediction) seems to land almost every single time. And as low as 30 Crit triggers more often than I expect it to. I don't know if the double rng is used for crits or not. If anything crits feel skewed towards triggering but that's just a feeling, and feelings are not only subjective, they also depend on expectations and mine are usually low, so don't take my word for it. The last thing I want to say is that while any % Chance should on average yield that chance, these things are ultimately binary in this system. You roll a number, if it's less than or equal to your crit it lands. Say your crit is 30 and you rolled a 31, no crit. But had you just one more crit then it would've landed. It's not like crit damage scales with your chance, it's either x3 damage or it isn't. So that's why for me, every single point of Dex/Lck matters. Again, on average you expect to get the same % of crits as your crit value but that's only true for a very large number of trials. Anyone who's played around with rng's before knows the results can be very skewed in the short term (in either direction). As an example, take a look at the coin toss simulation on the wikipedia page of the Gambler's Fallacy (not that the gambler's fallacy is relevant here). Watch it restart say 5-10 times, and see how often one side gets favored over the other in that limited number of trials. Usually by a small amount, but this is why I say every point matters. To conclude, obviously if you have a guaranteed route to ORKO then go for it, but for characters who can't achieve that, consider a crit build that maximizes both Crit and No. of Hits. Edit: See further discussion/analysis of Astra's effective crit chance of getting at least X crits out of the 5 hits, below. Edit: Another analysis comparing Astra and double hits, here. Edited August 16, 2020 by Owns Corrected error about One-Two-punches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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