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Who do you think would have won the part 2 war if Byleth never rejoined anyone?


Faellin
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Lets say Byleth just says "Screw it, i'm done with this nonsense" and never rejoins up with any of the 3 leaders or the church in part 2. How do you think things would play out in this hypothetical scenario of him just staying in hiding the whole time?

Edit: Sorry wrong board... Just noticed that. Meant to post in the 3 houses board. Sorry

Edited by Faellin
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The Adrestian Empire would've won. They were already winning when you wake up in Part 2. Crimson Flower is also the shortest route, which makes sense because they had less work to do in that route. They just had to keep being aggressive.

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I don't really think Edelgard is the clear option. Yes, her empire is the biggest, yes she had agents pulling a coup on Faergus, yes she has the Agarthans on her side with their nukes and demonic beasts, yet despite all of that the war was still a complete stalemate until Byleth showed up. Despite all the massive advantages Adrestia still could not make any meaningful progress in half a decade. I don't see why that state of affairs would suddenly change if Byleth never showed up. Neither side has the military advantage, the game makes that quite clear, so its an out and out war of attirtion that would probably come down to which side would lose the will of the people first. And to that end I think it might actually be Adrestia. Faergus has probably the most fanatically loyal characters of the three and the Alliance has suffered the least from the war. Edelgard is also quite popular, but she has the uphill battle of trying to change the regime. If her people continue dying without gaining any progress in a war that continues for several more years then a lot of the population might just start viewing her politically crippled father as a preferable situation.

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Easily Edelgard. In three of the routes she's effectively already won before Byleth shows up to turn the tide. Dimitri as a crazy hobo and the eastern Kingdom lords can't turn back the tide and glue Faerghus back without Byleth just like Claude can't fully unify the alliance without Byleth.

If Byleth didn't show up then its likely Edelgard and Cornelia would just trample over the eastern Kingdom lords and then finish off the impotent alliance.

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Tbh the biggest deciding factor is what happens to Rhea in the no byleth setting. Does it go the way of CF or the other routes or some new changed fate entirely?  Wherever she goes the knights of serios goes. When they don't scatter and go looking for her things like Cornellia's rebellion don't happen (see CF) because the knights didn't lose there leader and scatter there forces to search for her. Which makes the kingdom significantly harder to conquer. Still possible for any side to win just think Rhea is a huge oddsmaker in this because it effects the church faction as a whole which in turn effects other countries.

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One thing that also makes me think Edelgard would have won is that in silver snow route they mentioned that that the 3 armies had fought with this results: Edelgard was badly injured and forced to retreat to Enbarr, Dimitri is dead, and Claude is missing.

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I suppose, as @vikingsfan92 pointed out, it would depend on whether or not Rhea was captured in Part 1. If Rhea was captured, then the coup in Fearghus occurs and the Knights of Seiros are scattered. If Rhea is not captured, she forms an Alliance with Fearghus and the coup never happens, strengthening the kingdom. 

That said, either outcome would then have to factor in The Alliance, and Claude does have an ace up his sleeve: Almyra. The moment the Empire crosses into Alliance territory, Claude can have Almyran forces fly in like heroes. Would they be able to win against the Empire, who have demonic beasts and TWSITD? Probably not, but they do stand a better chance than most. They have magical beasts of their own in the form of giant birds, and the combination of archers and fliers would certainly pose a threat against the Imperial forces. 

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I'm going to speculate that TWSITD would have won had Byleth not shown up. The fact that they have nukes makes them easily most powerful of anyone except possibly Rhea. AM and VW don't even know they exist (Well, Claude might, but no way does he know the extent) and I don't think Edelgard would have been able to wipe them out after the fact without Byleth. If I'm remembering correctly, it's actually stated in CF that they were relying on TWSITD for their strength pretty heavily before Byleth showed up, which is one of the reasons they were able to sort of part ways with them.

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3 hours ago, Burklight said:

I'm going to speculate that TWSITD would have won had Byleth not shown up. The fact that they have nukes makes them easily most powerful of anyone except possibly Rhea. AM and VW don't even know they exist (Well, Claude might, but no way does he know the extent) and I don't think Edelgard would have been able to wipe them out after the fact without Byleth. If I'm remembering correctly, it's actually stated in CF that they were relying on TWSITD for their strength pretty heavily before Byleth showed up, which is one of the reasons they were able to sort of part ways with them.

I actually don't think the Slitherers would have won without Byleth. I assume that if Edelgard won the other three routes she'd just have destroyed the Slitherers same as with Crimson Flower.

The Slitherers are not an all powerful faction. They have gimmicks like monsters and indeed very impressive weapons in the form of nukes, but they don't have much troops and resources. Edelgard, Dimitri and Claud lead countries while the Slitherers lead a single city of crazy mole people. 

But more important the Slitherers are too inept to conquer the world. I don't think their reputation for incompetence is an unintentional one. In Crimson Flowers Hubert notes that they are far too busy looking down at everyone to even consider that they'd be seriously challenged. I don't think its a coincidence that in that very same paralogue we see their scientists make a complete mess of things. Kronya and Solon get destroyed by high school students and Thales never comes across as overly powerful himself. Its even possible for all of Thales plans to fall apart by complete accident in Dimitri's route. 

Their leaders are unimpressive, their numbers are small and their overly snooty mentality ensures they'd lower their guard so much they'd trip over it. Even with their nukes they are the evil  FE cult I'd likely fear the least. Its also worth noting that while Byleth is present in the assault on mole town the Hubert paralogue suggests that its mostly house Vestra which will end up destroying the Slitherers. The ending mural of Crimson Flowers involved hidden daggers to further reinforce that point. 

The only route where I give the Slitherers a shot is Azure Moon since Dimitri is too busy with his personal issues to discover them. But even this gets more questionable with Hapi's inclusion. 

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Best chance: Claude. He is the only one of the 3 leaders that is actually capable of getting help from outside of Fodland.
Dimitri will fall to the Adrestian Empire
Edelgard falls to the people who lurke in the shadows.

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I do think Edelgard, the real question is can a version of Edelgard, who never learns to open up to people actually defeat the Agarthans or would they forever more have strings tied to her Empire?

Another factor would also be if the war takes longer than in the standard timelines, which it might. Edelgard is trying to bury just how much the atrocities of war is affecting her under her ice queen demeanour, but if this goes on for long enough without any real progress made, maybe she would eventually decide this isn't worth it. Which could result in the war ending in a stalemate. That is if the Agarthans would even allow her to quit, so I am uncertain what would actually happen in such a timeline. Because if the Agarthans still have power in the Empire at this time, Edelgard deciding to stop her war with the kingdom and the alliance could lead to a civil war within the Empire between Edelgard and her "uncle". It is important to remember that there are factions within the Empire that demand war, regardless of if Edelgard has changed her mind or not

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