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James Marshall

List the 2 worst cases of being RNG-Screwed in Three Houses

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For a laugh how about we each list the 2 worst cases of 1 or more of your units being RNG-Screwed in Three Houses?. Mine happened less then 20 minutes ago, they happened on the same Auxillary Battle, 1 happened on The Player Phase and the other happened on the following Enemy Phase

During The Auxillary Battle in question my Shamir used A Brave Bow but despite A 88% chance to hit only 1 of her 4 attacks hit then on The Enemy Phase 4 enemies attacked her and despite none of them having better then A 37% chance to hit 3 of them managed to hit her. How heavily did The RNG-Screw my Shamir?

Edited by James Marshall

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I don't remember any funny experiences about being Rng- Screwed in battles themselves.

I do remember my Edelgard being outsped by speedsters like Hanneman though. I think she had like 14 or 15 speed in endgame, but i'm not entirely sure about the number. I am certain she got doubled by everything and that it made her very frail.

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Level 43 Bow Knight Dimitri with only 19 defense. On the other hand, he did hit 39 speed, so not screwed along every dimension.

He had more speed and less defense than a almost identically leveled Felix(they went through the exact same class lines).

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Not three houses, but this RNG screwing was so bad I just have to post it.

A 20/12 Rebecca from FE7 with 12 strength.

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Lvl 29 Ferdinand (Myrmidon > Mercenary > Thief > Assassin) with 21 Spd. Given that Assassin ensures 19 Spd with base + stat boost, and I was looking for a dodge tank Ferdinand, this stung.

Also this one's funny more than anything else, but one enemy Grappler got 2 crits out of four hits on Sylvain, with their hit rate being high 80s and their crit rate being like 12 or something. Still dealt zero damage, but imagining the grappler's feelings when their face pops up and yells something each time they got a crit, just to do absolutely nothing at all, was quite funny. If they'd gone for anyone else, it would have been really dangerous though.

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I have an uncanny ability to look at the battle forecast as combat starts, notice the low crit rate an enemy has, think “eh it should be fine” and then get crit a second later. Case in point: Marianne got shot at by the onager in chapter 14, and as the projectile drifts through the air I notice his 1% crit rate. Dismissing it, I suddenly hear Marianne scream, quickly look at her and see 111 damage.

Lucky nobody was home, otherwise my anger would have disturbed someone.

1 minute ago, haarhaarhaar said:

Also this one's funny more than anything else, but one enemy Grappler got 2 crits out of four hits on Sylvain, with their hit rate being high 80s and their crit rate being like 12 or something. Still dealt zero damage, but imagining the grappler's feelings when their face pops up and yells something each time they got a crit, just to do absolutely nothing at all, was quite funny. If they'd gone for anyone else, it would have been really dangerous though

Similar story along the same vein as my first: Balthus was in range of 2 archers, one with a 2% crit rate and the other with a 5% crit rate. First archer attacked him for 0x2, I noticed the 2% and thought, “heh, go ahead and try”. He did. Then the second one attacked him, 0x2, and I noticed his 5% chance to crit. He crit.

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4 minutes ago, Anathaco said:

Marianne got shot at by the onager in chapter 14, and as the projectile drifts through the air I notice his 1% crit rate. Dismissing it, I suddenly hear Marianne scream, quickly look at her and see 111 damage.

Completely feel you there - I have terrible ballista luck across the whole FE series, to the point where I now avoid even using them or, expecting them to miss, use them for some cheap exp. 

Edited by haarhaarhaar

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Trying to Battalion Wrath/Vantage the final map on Azure Moon with Dimitri. The Mortal Savants have decent luck so he has about an 88% chance to crit them. Eventually he fails to crit one of them and then they proceed to crit him in return.

Not the worse thing since I use Battalion Desperation, but after I my got Leonie into Falcon Knight she refused to gain Defense having about 18 at level 40. Which is slightly more than my Lysithea with 16.

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6 hours ago, James Marshall said:

How heavily did The RNG-Screw my Shamir?

Vigbiorn from Ask statistics says:

”I am still a student so I wanted to give a crack at this, to see how well my learning has been going, so any criticism is welcome..

I also like TTRPGs, so I know how unfair randomness can seem.

First, both instances are independent events, unless there's an ability I'm not aware of but we should be able to use the probabilities as if they're independent, regardless.

I'm modeling each round as if they're sampling from binomial distributions. The first has 1 success and 3 fails with 88% success. The second has 3 successes and 1 fail at 37% success (I'm bundling the four attacks against together since, again, I see them as separate identical samplings, as we were given 1 hit chance, it's effectively one 'person' taking four shots).

I used R to run a multinomial test (using the EMT package) comparing the suspected binomial distribution to your results in the first round. The probability of getting that result is ~6/1000. Seems unlikely, but how frequently is the game played? Unlikely outputs are possible, and especially since this is a single instance, it sucks but it may be within reason. As is, there is evidence that your first round may not have had an 88% chance to hit.

The multinomial test for the second round came back as 14/100. That's not significant at all. That's in-line of what you'd expect. There's no evidence of a deviation from the stated distribution.

Overall, depending on what you mean by "RNG screwed", you might have been. Ideally, RNG should be random, but if this is a computer game, a lot of programs go with "good-enough" randomness, and so non-random patterns can pop-up from time to time. But, the flip-side is that 88% chance of success can end in 4 failures, and that's perfectly reasonable as an outcome. Maybe it seems extra unlikely because you had three successes from a low-chance attack right after, but they're unrelated. Even given deterministic issues with RNG functions, they were independent at the code level.“

Seems like you did get RNG screwed.  X)

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This is only one, because rng screws are generally harder in three houses, but last play through, my Gilbert with a 55% strength growth got oNe point of strength in his 11-13 levels. He had 27 strength at end game. Even Ingrid had higher strength than him 😂

Edited by Sooks1016

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My first playthrough with Verdant Wind, I had a level 38 Leonie with 22 STR. In my 2nd playthrough for Verdant Wind, my Lorenz had both 27 STR and MAG at level 37, then at level 45, he had only 29 STR and MAG.

... So for 8 levels straight, he only gained 2 points in either stat.

However, I did find it quite satisfying that both stats managed to stay even with each other. LOL But what really surprised me is that, during this playthrough, Lorenz excelled in the beginning ORKO-ing pretty much all of his enemies and ended up MVP at least once or twice in part 1. I should have known, though, because my first playthrough with VW, he was my worst unit.

Also, in my Blue Lions run, Ignatz managed to land a 1% crit chance on my Mercedes in a forest during the first mock battle 💀 Thankfully she survived LOL

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