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War was inevitable. Edelgard just sped things up.

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Everyone's talking about Edelgard starting a war, but after re-playing AM I just realised something - the war between the Kingdom + Church and the Empire is inevitable.

Dimitri has been investigating Arundel before Edelgard declares war. He's onto Arundel and he would very likely manage to connect Arundel to the Tragedy of Duscur if his investigation wasn't brought to a halt because of the war, which means the entire kingdom will be declaring war on the empire and demand Edelgard hand over Arundel to them. The Church will likely join in because they are allies and may even discover Arundel's true identity and through the empire, discover the activity of TWSITD in the empire.

War was bound to come. Edelgard just sped things up.

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My guess as to what would have actually happened would be not Dimitri declaring war as a means of getting a hold of Arundel, but just assassinating him at the earliest opportunity, whether by actually breaking into his house and killing him or inviting him out under a pretense of catching up. Dimitri at this point still cares about the lives of his people- he already suspected Arundel was involved so my guess is he wouldn't snap as badly as he did when Edelgard was revealed as the Flame Emperor. Thus he'd seek to resolve it on his own without declaring war.

Whether or not this leads to war via the Empire declaring that the Kingdom murdered its regent is a separate matter, mainly depending on if Dimitri would get caught. An Arundel that arouses Dimitri's suspicion is definitely one that is still a double, courtesy of TWSITD, so it stands to reason that the only way for this to actually happen is if Dimitri were to find solid evidence of Arundel's involvement before Edelgard declares war- keep in mind that Edelgard would still plan to declare war anyway. She might use Arundel's death as the pretense to start a war with the Kingdom and hope that the Church backs them up so she can go for them as well, or she can stick to her normal plan, knowing that TWSITD's remnants will elect a new leader and she still has their co-operation.

Regardless, the decision for the war is still on Edelgard's shoulders, so I'm not sure how "inevitable" it is in that context.

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No, war wasn't inevitable because TWSITD/the Agarthans aren't the Empire.  If Dimitri discovered on his own that Arundel was actually a conspiring heretic who wanted to see to the end of the Church and the rise of his own insidious faction, Dimitri would simply just need to apprehend Arundel and maybe whoever else was part of the conspiracy.  Who would stop that?  Edelgard.  Why?  Not because of family obligation, but because she's working with these conspirators to bring down the Church.

It doesn't matter if she just pulled the trigger early like she did in this game or if she waited until the Church-aligned forces were catching onto the conspiracy.  The issue is that she's supporting TWSITD as a means to destroy the Church.  And as misguided as Seiros and the Church may be, they aren't responsible for the horrible state that Fodlan is in.  Or at least, not wholly responsible.  They granted crests to humans and censored history, but in truth the kind of cruel society Fodlan developed into would've probably happened without crests.

Why?  Because that society is basically what late medieval Europe was like, just without the crest stuff (and perhaps with a bit less drama in reality, though funnily enough there was this little known dramatic play an English poet wrote about a pair of lovebirds that opposed the will of their families who wanted to see them married to people from other families, which was called "Romeo and Juliet").  Primogeniture was a law created to retain stable lordships through inheritance, because before such a law came to be most of the time every child would get a slice of the holdings when their parents died, and that resulted in grievous realm instability.  Also, marriages were arranged for women so as to create powerful, lasting dynasties - marriages were effectively political tools.  Fodlan's crest-obsessed society is basically just a primogeniture-based medieval society with the added bonus of genetic favoritism (crest obsession).  This added factor doesn't make this way of running things any more or less cruel for the families involved, though there are some tossups like Miklan suddenly getting disinherited because of Sylvain's crest.

The only additional thing about crests to consider in this is the experimentation.  However, this experimentation was solely carried out by TWSITD - at least, the more vicious, harmful kind.  Rhea did perform her own sort of experiment, but it was much more ethical, as each of the vessels she planted the Crest of Seiros in were fully consenting to this - perhaps she may have taken advantage of her authority or their bias, but at least the people she "experimented" on were aware of and accepting of the entire situation (though poor Jeralt wasn't).  And of course, it would seem that Thales is responsible for Edelgard's crests and the failures that happened in her siblings.

The ultimate point I'm making is that the fundamental issue - why people take issue with the war and blame Edelgard - is because Edelgard was manipulated by TWSITD into waging war against the Church.  She was set up to be aligned with the very people who are responsible for her suffering, and to fight against a faction that really are just as much victims of the people she's working with as she herself is.  It's a situation that's just so very inane and backwards, and while one may sympathize with Edelgard, any reasonable person who knows the full story can see that Edelgard has her sights set completely wrong.

Though of course, it isn't just about the crests - she claims she wants to dismantle the nobility and instead form a meritocratic system of government, where the most able people are given the highest roles in society.  But the problem is, the nobility and those who were fortunate enough to be granted higher education are the most able people, because they got a very strong leg up over the rest of the people.  A meritocracy is an inherently flawed system, but also this demonstrates an issue with trying to introduce radical change in a government - which is that while you may fundamentally change the laws and how people come into power, it's ultimately just gonna be the same people who retain that power because they can find some way to force themselves into these positions unless a radical revolution were to occur where all these people were just straight up killed or imprisoned for life.

 

But I digress.  Edelgard is responsible for the war.  She's an active agent in starting the war.  If she didn't start it immediately and allowed for Arundel to be discovered, she would've started it when she refused to hand her fellow conspirator over.  If Edelgard wasn't a factor - if the emperor was someone else who wasn't involved with TWSITD - the Empire would have no reason to keep from handing over Arundel, and thus there would be no cause for war.  Sure, Arundel is a noble of the Empire and one of the emperor's consorts, but most sensible people would prefer avoiding war even if it meant betraying one's vassals.  Perhaps a lesser emperor could see it as an excuse to subjugate and conquer the other nations, but the point remains that it's the emperor that is ultimately causing the war, not TWSITD or Dimitri.

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No, it would probably just be another Lonato situation, as it's only Arundel. Most of the other houses probably wouldn't intervene, just as none had intervened with house Hrym. Edelgard could use it as an excuse to start the war later though.

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Even if a full scale war broke out between the Kingdom and the Empire, it's unlikely that the church would even back the Kingdom. The Church is an independent acting entity, but they are not a full country like the other three powers. They don't have a massive army and loads of resources to make use of. Their power over the continent is entirely of the soft kind with the Knights of Seiros basically being a well trained and equipped mercenary force. The Church might make declarations that they support the Kingdom in such a case because they are closest to the Kingdom, but really in such a scenario the Church has no reason to actually align themselves with the Kingdom. And the Alliance even less so. So even in this hypothetical war, it'd be significantly less of a continent wide war than Edelgard actually starts in the game.

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3 hours ago, Jotari said:

Even if a full scale war broke out between the Kingdom and the Empire, it's unlikely that the church would even back the Kingdom. The Church is an independent acting entity, but they are not a full country like the other three powers. They don't have a massive army and loads of resources to make use of. Their power over the continent is entirely of the soft kind with the Knights of Seiros basically being a well trained and equipped mercenary force. The Church might make declarations that they support the Kingdom in such a case because they are closest to the Kingdom, but really in such a scenario the Church has no reason to actually align themselves with the Kingdom. And the Alliance even less so. So even in this hypothetical war, it'd be significantly less of a continent wide war than Edelgard actually starts in the game.

I think the Knights of Seiros are a bigger entity than you give them credit for. Why else would they keep being called in to deal with other nation's problems? Fighting Lonato makes sense, because he declared war on the Church. But what about Miklan? I know a Hero's Relic is involved, but why don't Kingdom troops, or those loyal to House Gautier, handle it? Heck, they don't even help. And then there's the Shamir/Alois paralogue, in which Dierdriu, the capital of the Alliance, is under attack from bandits. Who fends them off - Alliance troops, or those loyal to House Riegan? Neither, they call in the Knights of Seiros instead. And in the Hildalogue (feat. Cyril), it's our forces who wind up saving the Goneril Knights.

At the very least, the Kingdom and Alliance's militaries are disorganized, if not entirely incompetent. The one military force that appears to rival the Knights of Seiros is the Imperial Army, and that appears to be due more to quantity, and Cresperimentation, than to the quality of its members (consider Jeralt is called "the strongest knight ever", and Catherine is renowned for her Relic). Even Kostas knows to fear the "Knights of damned Seiros".

In terms of the war itself, though, you're probably right. If Edelgard declared war on the Kingdom, on the basis of "your Prince/King assassinated our Regent", then I don't see the Church of Alliance involving themselves- except, perhaps, to attempt to broker a peace deal. Curiously enough, such a scenario would actually be ripe for Cornelia to exploit for her coup. If she convinces enough Kingdom lords that Dimitri plunged their country into war over an act of revenge, then she may be able to garner their support with the promise of an armistice.

6 hours ago, Jotari said:

War is only ever inevitable if we treat it as such.

Agreed. Everything that happens is the result of human (and dragon... and mole-person) actions. To treat Edelgard as an agent of some inevitable fate, I feel, undermines her agency and sense of purpose.

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19 minutes ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

I think the Knights of Seiros are a bigger entity than you give them credit for. Why else would they keep being called in to deal with other nation's problems? Fighting Lonato makes sense, because he declared war on the Church. But what about Miklan? I know a Hero's Relic is involved, but why don't Kingdom troops, or those loyal to House Gautier, handle it? Heck, they don't even help. And then there's the Shamir/Alois paralogue, in which Dierdriu, the capital of the Alliance, is under attack from bandits. Who fends them off - Alliance troops, or those loyal to House Riegan? Neither, they call in the Knights of Seiros instead. And in the Hildalogue (feat. Cyril), it's our forces who wind up saving the Goneril Knights.

At the very least, the Kingdom and Alliance's militaries are disorganized, if not entirely incompetent. The one military force that appears to rival the Knights of Seiros is the Imperial Army, and that appears to be due more to quantity, and Cresperimentation, than to the quality of its members (consider Jeralt is called "the strongest knight ever", and Catherine is renowned for her Relic). Even Kostas knows to fear the "Knights of damned Seiros".

In terms of the war itself, though, you're probably right. If Edelgard declared war on the Kingdom, on the basis of "your Prince/King assassinated our Regent", then I don't see the Church of Alliance involving themselves- except, perhaps, to attempt to broker a peace deal. Curiously enough, such a scenario would actually be ripe for Cornelia to exploit for her coup. If she convinces enough Kingdom lords that Dimitri plunged their country into war over an act of revenge, then she may be able to garner their support with the promise of an armistice.

That would be the well trained well equipped mercenary part of my comment (plus or minus some contrived scenarios to have you visit maps that were actually designed for some other moment in the story in paralogues). I don't want to downplay the quality of the Knights of Seiros, but I think it's clear in how Part 1 ends and from just simply looking at the map and the logistics of such a small area that the knights of Seiros are a strong force, but that the Church simply can't muster the hard power to match the other countries in full scale military.

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I agree with OP to a certain degree. I think Faerghus will likely declare war on Adrestia, if Dimitri manages to find the evidence that links Arundel to the Tragedy of Duscur. But for Faerghus to actively ally with the Church during the war between Adrestia and the Church, it's not a scenario that benefits Edelgard and TWSITD’s respective goals, hence Cornelia’s coup.

In a hypothetical scenario, in which Dimitri successfully traced the Tragedy of Duscur back to Arundel without ever discovering Flame Emperor’s identity via the dagger (thus not clouded by his mixed emotion towards Edelgard), I think he would attempt to reveal this information publicly, as well as demand Adrestia to formally hand Arundel over to Faerghus for punishment.

My reasoning is that, he’s generally very concerned about the concept of justice, and one of his primary goals at this point of the game is to clear Duscur’s name for the apparent regicide. He wasn’t able to do it before, because he lacked the authority at the time, and more importantly, he lacked the evidence. Now with the hypothetical evidence in hand, I think he’ll be determined enough to use his political power, which he had mostly left untouched at the beginning of the game.

As for the reaction from Adrestia, I think they’ll refuse to hand over Arundel. Since Ionius had already been stripped off his power by Aegir & Co., and Aegir as the Prime Minister was shown to be easily manipulated, the real authority thus resides within Arundel as the regent of Adrestia. Assuming Edelgard hasn’t yet secured Hevring and Bergliez’s support to ascend the throne, Arundel really has no reason and no obligation to surrender to Faerghus. Even if Edelgard manages to secure her political power within Adrestia, Arundel and TWSITD are still valuable tools for her planned conflict with the Church, so I don’t think she’d hand him over either. Then we reach a stalemate between Adrestia and Faerghus.

Personally, I think Faerghus is very susceptible of declaring war on Adrestia for being responsible of the regicide, as evidenced by the Duscur genocide during Rufus’ regency. Even if Dimitri manages to secure the throne from Rufus, his preference to retributive justice before his redemption arc, informed by Faerghus’ culture heavily emphasising on honouring and appeasing the dead, will make the war more likely than not. Edit: (I also think that the Church will likely sit it out until there is a more clear winner or benefit between these two, as shown by the Church’s behaviour during Faerghus’ independence war and the Church’s non intervention during the Duscur genocide. I initially thought the Church would sit it out like in the initial war of the eagle and the lion, but the reasoning @omegaxis1 provided for the Church to choose side is very convincing. So yes, the Church will probably ally with Faerghus if Dimitri declares war on Adrestia with the evidence that links Arundel to the regicide.)

For Adrestia, I actually think they’re less likely to declare war on Faerghus in this case. Because for both Edelgard and Arundel/Thales, Rhea and the Church are their primary target. Weakening Adrestian forces before engaging with Rhea and the Church doesn’t seem a sensible choice, at least to me. If Adrestia declares the war, I think it’ll still be against the Church and they’ll more or less proceed like in the game. This will prompt Faerghus to ally with the Church to fight a common enemy in this hypothetical scenario, and will push Adrestia into a less favourable position militarily speaking, evidenced by the contrasting outlook after time skip in CF and non-CF routes.

As a result, Cornelia’s presence and her planned coup in Faerghus is vital to prevent this inconvenient alliance between the Kingdom and the Church by further destabilising the former. If she ever catches wind of Dimitri finding the evidence and attempting to go public with it, I think she’ll enact the coup as soon as possible.

Edited by DriftingWaterBottle

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Keep in mind that Arundel is the regent of the Empire. The Insurrection of the Seven meant that the Agarthans and other corrupt nobles of the Empire hold the power. If you try to attack Arundel, then you basically declared war. 

Yeah, Dimitri learning that Arundel was connected to Duscur and trying to harm Arundel would instigate war. 

Let's not pretend that Dimitri wouldn't do that. He literally admits that he came to Garreg Mach for revenge, and he wouldn't have the clarity to really understand that if he were to try and harm the Empire's regent, he would basically cause war to happen. 

 

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Everyone is talking about Dimtri and Fargheus going to war which I think is a likely happening if he learns of Aurndel but lets not forget that Claude is also likely to go into battle.  He is a schemer whos scheme was not able to be put into action only because another plan was further along in planning  stages.  Claude has his own issues with Rhea and the church as a whole as seen in his own route and I am not convinced that what ever his scheme was entirely benign or the TWSID wouldn't spin it in a way that also leads to war.  TWSID factor alone pretty much ensures that war happens somewhere at some place imo just a matter of where and when.

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3 hours ago, Jotari said:

That would be the well trained well equipped mercenary part of my comment (plus or minus some contrived scenarios to have you visit maps that were actually designed for some other moment in the story in paralogues). I don't want to downplay the quality of the Knights of Seiros, but I think it's clear in how Part 1 ends and from just simply looking at the map and the logistics of such a small area that the knights of Seiros are a strong force, but that the Church simply can't muster the hard power to match the other countries in full scale military.

While that is true, the Knights of Seiros are still a large enough force that are pretty powerful.

And overall, they don't even need to be the strongest military. 

The Church's political influence basically allows them to employ the other nations to fight alongside with them. The Kingdom being basically subservient to the Church means that most of the Kingdom would, by default, aid them. 

That's kind of the importance of the Church holding sway over the masses and having political influence over nations and the nobility. 

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Is the main conflict from this game avoidable? In my honest opinion, yes and no.

Broadly speaking, certain decisions like looking for allies elsewhere, talking with each other and seeking for a mutual consensus where everyone wins and loses something could potentially prevent the whole war from happening. However, making the important players from Three Houses take those choices without absolutely breaking their character is in my opinion an impossible feat without heavily rewriting them to the point their names is the only thing kept from the original draft (in particular Edelgard and Rhea).

In that regard, it very much feels like the writers did an spectacular job with writing Fódlan into a wall so it gets wrecked by a conflict with the pieces the game offers you. But if everyone wasn't so flawed and traumatised? Then yeah, you could potentially fix stuff more peacefully.

Edited by Moltz23

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2 minutes ago, Moltz23 said:

Is the main conflict from this game avoidable? In my honest opinion, yes and no.

Broadly speaking, certain decisions like looking for allies elsewhere, talking with each other and seeking for a mutual consensus where everyone wins and loses something could potentially prevent the whole war from happening. However, making the important players from Three Houses take those choices without absolutely breaking their character is in my opinion an impossible feat without heavily rewriting them to the point their names is the only thing kept from the original draft (in particular Edelgard and Rhea).

In that regard, it very much feels like the writers did an spectacular job with writing Fódlan into a wall so it gets wrecked by a conflict with the pieces the game offers you. But if everyone wasn't so flawed and traumatised? Then yeah, you could potentially fix stuff more peacefully.

For there to be an avoidance of war, Dimitri needs to get over his revenge (so post-Gronder AM Dimitri), Claude needs to trust others more (VW development), Rhea needs to let go of her mother (5 year imprisonment in non-CF routes), and Edelgard needs to overall regain her "heart" (CF development). 

Overall, everyone needs the development that they only get in Part 2 of their general respective routes. 

It's impossible, therefore. 

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7 hours ago, omegaxis1 said:

While that is true, the Knights of Seiros are still a large enough force that are pretty powerful.

And overall, they don't even need to be the strongest military. 

The Church's political influence basically allows them to employ the other nations to fight alongside with them. The Kingdom being basically subservient to the Church means that most of the Kingdom would, by default, aid them. 

That's kind of the importance of the Church holding sway over the masses and having political influence over nations and the nobility. 

Yeah, but that's not the scenario in question here. The scenario is that the Kingdom is starting the war, in which case the church doesn't have any real reason to assist them (militarily).

Edited by Jotari

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1 minute ago, Jotari said:

Yeah, but that's not the scenario in question here. The scenario is that the Kingdom is starting the war, in which case the church doesn't have any real reason to assist them (militarily).

Actually, do they not? It was THEM that took over the investigation of Duscur and executed various nobles of Faerghus. 

So by all accounts, the Church is now involved with the matter and can't just back out when there's a link of the Tragedy of Duscur to the Empire.

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8 minutes ago, omegaxis1 said:

Actually, do they not? It was THEM that took over the investigation of Duscur and executed various nobles of Faerghus. 

So by all accounts, the Church is now involved with the matter and can't just back out when there's a link of the Tragedy of Duscur to the Empire.

So you think Dimitri would want revenge on them and push the Church into an alliance with the empire? That's certainly flip things on its head.

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1 minute ago, Jotari said:

So you think Dimitri would want revenge on them and push the Church into an alliance with the empire? That's certainly flip things on its head.

Dimitri does exactly that in CF. He entered the war with the Empire by allying himself with the Church. He used the Church as a means to get his revenge. Even tried to use the Church as bait in the Tailtean Plains so that he could flank the Empire, which only got thwarted because of the rain. 

CF Dimitri proves that he can hold onto his obsessive desire for revenge and madness, without being particularly open about it. He learned to hide it better under false pretenses. Basically a much more advanced form of how Dimitri acted in Part 1, pretending to be a nice guy, when secretly masking the desire to get revenge.

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2 minutes ago, omegaxis1 said:

Dimitri does exactly that in CF. He entered the war with the Empire by allying himself with the Church. He used the Church as a means to get his revenge. Even tried to use the Church as bait in the Tailtean Plains so that he could flank the Empire, which only got thwarted because of the rain. 

CF Dimitri proves that he can hold onto his obsessive desire for revenge and madness, without being particularly open about it. He learned to hide it better under false pretenses. Basically a much more advanced form of how Dimitri acted in Part 1, pretending to be a nice guy, when secretly masking the desire to get revenge.

That's not really the same thing at all though. We're talking about who or if at all the Church would get involved in a war between the Empire and the Kingdom if the Kingdom was the one starting the war.

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1 minute ago, Jotari said:

That's not really the same thing at all though. We're talking about who or if at all the Church would get involved in a war between the Empire and the Kingdom if the Kingdom was the one starting the war.

And I'm saying that Dimitri would actually grow to want revenge so badly that he would start to use any means necessary to get his revenge, including getting the Church to back him up on this.

And as I said, the Church got involved with the Tragedy of Duscur, meaning that the Church now has an obligation to support the Kingdom on this. 

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1 minute ago, omegaxis1 said:

And I'm saying that Dimitri would actually grow to want revenge so badly that he would start to use any means necessary to get his revenge, including getting the Church to back him up on this.

And as I said, the Church got involved with the Tragedy of Duscur, meaning that the Church now has an obligation to support the Kingdom on this. 

Dimitri might claim that, but Rhea really has no reason to agree with him.

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Just now, Jotari said:

Dimitri might claim that, but Rhea really has no reason to agree with him.

Perhaps, but at the same time, this would hurt Rhea and the Church's reputation, because this can be used to make people believe that the Church actually conspired with the Empire to assassinate Lambert.

The Church executed several nobles under the pretense of executing the people that conspired for Lambert's death. 

If Dimitri ultimately declares that the Empire was the true mastermind behind it, the Church will thus be seen with mistrust, as that might mean that the Church lied to them.

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I'm not sure if war was inevitable, but it was certainly a high probability. Between Dimitri/Arundel, and Claude's desire to unite Fodlan, not to mention the fact that parts of Fodlan are clearly bordering on being a failed state and something has to give, I think there's a high chance of war breaking out. It could have been avoided, but would involve all the major players of the game not being the people they are.

The conditions of Fodlan are somewhat similar to the conditions leading up to the various revolutions in our history. Society has very clearly progressed beyond "medieval": the arts (opera), understandings of astronomy and medicine, the academy itself all point at an Enlightenment-era society, not a medieval one. Yet we still see nobles hanging on to power using religious doctrine as their justification, and we also see a breakdown of social order with bandits everywhere. This is not sustainable.

Perhaps a purely peaceful solution could have been reached, but it seems unlikely, especially when the most powerful political player is immortal with an obvious dislike of change.

 

On 10/30/2020 at 1:31 AM, Ertrick36 said:

But I digress.  Edelgard is responsible for the war.  She's an active agent in starting the war.  If she didn't start it immediately and allowed for Arundel to be discovered, she would've started it when she refused to hand her fellow conspirator over.  If Edelgard wasn't a factor - if the emperor was someone else who wasn't involved with TWSITD - the Empire would have no reason to keep from handing over Arundel, and thus there would be no cause for war.  Sure, Arundel is a noble of the Empire and one of the emperor's consorts, but most sensible people would prefer avoiding war even if it meant betraying one's vassals.  Perhaps a lesser emperor could see it as an excuse to subjugate and conquer the other nations, but the point remains that it's the emperor that is ultimately causing the war, not TWSITD or Dimitri.

If the church demands the Empire hand over Arundel and Edelgard refuses, that is absolutely not her "causing a war". Quite the opposite; if the church sends the Knight of Seiros into Imperial territory to capture him, they would be the ones starting a war. Especially given that the Church has already executed someone for a crime they didn't commit, why on earth would Edelgard hand over Arundel on their say-so unless she wanted to ensure her nobles' loss of faith in her? (Ditto Duke Aegir, if Edelgard hadn't won the power struggle and he had remained the de facto leader of the Empire.)

I agree that Edelgard is the active agent in the war we had, mind, and in particular second @Shanty Pete's 1st Mate that to say otherwise is to undermine her agency in the story. She says it herself in Azure Moon Chapter 21: she weighed the victims of war against the victims of the world as it is now, and chose the former.

 

On 10/30/2020 at 1:31 AM, Ertrick36 said:

Though of course, it isn't just about the crests - she claims she wants to dismantle the nobility and instead form a meritocratic system of government, where the most able people are given the highest roles in society.  But the problem is, the nobility and those who were fortunate enough to be granted higher education are the most able people, because they got a very strong leg up over the rest of the people. 

While you're right that a more merit-based society does not prevent those who have amassed power from keeping it, it is still a necessary step towards a more equal society - few would contest that the liberal democracies of today are more equal than ones with primogeniture, even if even today those born wealthy still have a leg up over the rest of the people. On the note of education, the Edelgard/Ferdinand support shows that some sort of public education may be possible in the system Edelgard plans to create, which would go a further ways to addressing your concerns.

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Hapi says the empire nobles were already preparing for war. This is why they made Edelgard with the crest of flames experiments, as a "peerless emperor to rule Fodlan", according to Edelgard. Then Ferdinand talks about the nobles wanting to unify Fodlan, and the librarian NPC saying they saw the others as traitors for rebelling. Then you have Arundel and Cornelia who already plan to take over Fodlan from the inside and have already big reach into two of the three counties. And of course Rhea herself who admits the way she manipulated people might have something to do with them wanting to rebel against the church, such as what we see in Lonato.

So there is a ton of evidence that war was on the horizon. The only people denying this at this point is those who do it by proxy for saying Edelgard is "wrong", but they are biased and should be taken with a grain of salt. Some in this thread have taken to saying non-arguments such as "it doesn't matter" when presented with this evidence that they don't want to accept. A shame.

I won't bother with arbitrary speculatio on "what-ifs" but here's a question about about Dimitri investigating Arundel: it is strange why he accuses Edelgard of Duscur in CF. In that route he never witnesses the Flame Emperor conversing with Thales when he brings up Duscur, which is what connected Edelgard to the tragedy in his mind. So why does he say Edelgard killed their mom before his death? Maybe he continued investigating into Arundel, but then still, why wouldn't he blame it on him who he already suspects, instead of her who he knows is his childhood friend who was 14 at that time? It's very strange, and kinda smells of plot hole to me, but there are more weird things like this about Dimitri among all routes...

Also: "education is unfair in favour of the nobles", no it's not, it's public education as the game states. Also the crests have no value outside war according to Lynhardt, "it's as if crests are only tools of war" so they do not grant them an advantage in merit. And come on, this stuff is not part of the subject of this thread. Let's try to keep our protests over "every single thing Edlegard does is wrong" to a minimum when it's not part of the topic and at least stick to the topic at hand.

Edited by SRPG Tryhard
Typos and a few more points

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49 minutes ago, SRPG Tryhard said:

I won't bother with arbitrary speculatio on "what-ifs" but here's a question about about Dimitri investigating Arundel: it is strange why he accuses Edelgard of Duscur in CF. In that route he never witnesses the Flame Emperor conversing with Thales when he brings up Duscur, which is what connected Edelgard to the tragedy in his mind. So why does he say Edelgard killed their mom before his death? Maybe he continued investigating into Arundel, but then still, why wouldn't he blame it on him who he already suspects, instead of her who he knows is his childhood friend who was 14 at that time? It's very strange, and kinda smells of plot hole to me, but there are more weird things like this about Dimitri among all routes...

I'm of the mind that everything you see from the characters in Part 1 during their routes canonically happens.

In that Dimitri overhears the conversation between Thales and the Flame Emperor on every route, as Claude reads up about the Immaculate One, and so on and so forth. 

Also, Dimitri isn't exactly sane in the head. Hell, even in gameplay, he has a bane in "Reason", so he's not exactly logical. Obviously he will convince himself that Edelgard was responsible for Duscur, no matter how illogical it might seem. 

I think the dumber thing is that no one bothers to even correct him in the game. Like, no one points out that there's no way that a 13-14 year old girl could have been behind Duscur.

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