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Diovani Bressan

Voting Gauntlet: AHR 2021 Finals!

Voting Gauntlet Poll  

62 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. So... Which army will you support?

    • Seiros: Saint of Legend
    • Micaiah: Dawn Wind's Duo
    • Freyja: Lady of Nightmare
    • Corrin: Child of Dusk
    • Lyn: Ninja-Friend Duo
    • Byleth: Fell Star's Duo
      0
    • Dimitri: Savior King
    • Edelgard: Adrestian Emperor

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  • Poll closed on 03/04/21 at 02:59 AM

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2 hours ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Edelgard is not my only frustration though or even my biggest.  It goes well beyond who goes who made into top 8 in the first place heck even beyond that possibly beyond the top 20. So many mythics and Legendaries dominate the rankings. I am not just arguing that normal banner units are being undervalued but seasonal as well who are useful casually and in modes of your choosing.  Also pity brakers are an argument that doesn't work in practice because its such a crap shoot and you can go years without summoning a common unit.  There are streamers with white whale units in the common pool. 

Mythic and Legendary Heroes are highly valued because of the resources they can bring. Normal Heroes and Special Heroes do not have the same impact on obtaining resources as those former two types.

1 hour ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Also don't think people give legendary banners enough credit. Sure misses happen but the misses on the legend mythc banners are purposely selected to be better than misses on normal banners. Sure they range in quality individually but still usually the best units on a given other banner tend to make it on to them.

Missing is a lot more common on Legendary and Mythic Foci compared to other Foci. The misses may be better, but it is not good enough to offset the higher cost of sniping the unit you want.

For example, when I am sniping for Triandra, I got five Triandrias, but I also got pity broken by Hel at least five times and once by Freyja. If I was a Freyja fan and actually wanted Freyja, I would be pretty pissed. Hel having Distant Counter is nice, but once you hit a certain point in the game, you have already accumulated good stockpile of Distant Counter fodder and/or have a lot of Distant Counter units, and you simply do not need more of it. Additionally, Distant Counter is also in the 4* pool now, so Hel is even more worthless as fodder. Guard Bearing is an extremely niche skill, and it is pretty much crap for most players. Freyja also is not great as a Mythic unit since she is a combat unit and combat units cannot get stat boosts.

1 hour ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Thing is that seasonal and common banner units are often just as good if not better in the given modes while being usable in All of them.  So if I wanted to do the bare minimum amount of effort I can make them work more consistently due to being able to change more things about them. Legendary units don't work often in AR as they need to be in the right week to get the most out of them.  Same is true with Mythics in Arena.  Both legendaries and mythics can feel like shelve until the actual date changes units.  Take Legendary chrom for an example outside of the top 8. He is a real good unit but would still sit on the bench more than say brave dimtri or Brave Claude. Simply because you can change which mode they are focused on simper.

Common units are easier to obtain, and the latest ones can even be guaranteed summoned.

— — —

Legendaries might not have worked well in Aether Raids, but that is no longer the case as Legendaries can be used in the extra slot without having an impact on your score. Not every player cares about scoring optimally anyways, and for those that do not, there is nothing wrong with running Legendaries as key components in your Aether Raids teams. When I first started Aether Raids, my player phase team utilized no Mythics at all, so running one or more Legendary Hero on that team is not going to impact my ranking very much at the end of the day.

— — —

Mythics definitely do work in Arena. In fact, due to how Mythic Seasons work, you can use Mythic Heroes very reliably in Arena. Mythic Heroes counts as having Legendary Blessings if it is during their Mythic Season. So during a Fire/Water/Light/Dark Season, Eir counts as having Fire and Water Blessing. In fact, it is arguably easier to run a core team around Mythics than regular Heroes, assuming cost is not a concern.

Your Arena core could consist of Peony and Triandra during Light/Dark, and Mirabilis and Plumeria during Astra/Anima. For the Legendary component, you can cycle between SK!Dimitri, FL!Lilina, SK!Alm, and COD!Corrin, the four strongest Legendary Heroes.

Just like in Aether Raids, not everyone cares about scoring optimally in Arena, so there is nothing stopping a player from running Peony or Plumeria in Arena if they are fine with being in Tier 19.5 or lower.

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5 hours ago, XRay said:

Missing is a lot more common on Legendary and Mythic Foci compared to other Foci. The misses may be better, but it is not good enough to offset the higher cost of sniping the unit you want.

For example, when I am sniping for Triandra, I got five Triandrias, but I also got pity broken by Hel at least five times and once by Freyja. If I was a Freyja fan and actually wanted Freyja, I would be pretty pissed. Hel having Distant Counter is nice, but once you hit a certain point in the game, you have already accumulated good stockpile of Distant Counter fodder and/or have a lot of Distant Counter units, and you simply do not need more of it. Additionally, Distant Counter is also in the 4* pool now, so Hel is even more worthless as fodder. Guard Bearing is an extremely niche skill, and it is pretty much crap for most players. Freyja also is not great as a Mythic unit since she is a combat unit and combat units cannot get stat boosts.

You are leaving out that you have a higher rate to get a 5 star in general on the banner than you do on a normal one. Its much much easier to go deeper on a normal unit and not even walk away with a wrong 5 star unit only 3-4 stars.

 

5 hours ago, XRay said:

Legendaries might not have worked well in Aether Raids, but that is no longer the case as Legendaries can be used in the extra slot without having an impact on your score. Not every player cares about scoring optimally anyways, and for those that do not, there is nothing wrong with running Legendaries as key components in your Aether Raids teams. When I first started Aether Raids, my player phase team utilized no Mythics at all, so running one or more Legendary Hero on that team is not going to impact my ranking very much at the end of the day.

Aether raids defense says hi.  It doesn't take much commitment or knowledge to know that running a unit without the right blessing gives worse results.  And Legendary units are not only less consistent but mean you have to change whole teams out entirely.  AR defense is infinitely more emphasized as a mode  than arena defense is.  So it hurts more if you are out of season and legends are simply out of season more. Its easier to even stay slightly optimal with normal units and you can actually do something other than wait until a given day.

I will say mythics do have it slightly better in arena but still want to point out that they spend weeks without use just like legendaries in AR. A seasonal or normal unit can be more flexible and not have to wait as long.

6 hours ago, XRay said:

Common units are easier to obtain, and the latest ones can even be guaranteed summoned.

Again 5 stars in general have issues obtaining in the first place.  You can spend alot more trying to  get a 5* in the first place and hope its the right one on a normal banner.  People are undervaluing the 8% starting 5 star rate  and how painful building rate on normal banners can be. 

 

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1 hour ago, vikingsfan92 said:

You are leaving out that you have a higher rate to get a 5 star in general on the banner than you do on a normal one. Its much much easier to go deeper on a normal unit and not even walk away with a wrong 5 star unit only 3-4 stars.

 

Aether raids defense says hi.  It doesn't take much commitment or knowledge to know that running a unit without the right blessing gives worse results.  And Legendary units are not only less consistent but mean you have to change whole teams out entirely.  AR defense is infinitely more emphasized as a mode  than arena defense is.  So it hurts more if you are out of season and legends are simply out of season more. Its easier to even stay slightly optimal with normal units and you can actually do something other than wait until a given day.

I will say mythics do have it slightly better in arena but still want to point out that they spend weeks without use just like legendaries in AR. A seasonal or normal unit can be more flexible and not have to wait as long.

Again 5 stars in general have issues obtaining in the first place.  You can spend alot more trying to  get a 5* in the first place and hope its the right one on a normal banner.  People are undervaluing the 8% starting 5 star rate  and how painful building rate on normal banners can be. 

 

8% is better than the usual total of 6%, but if a normal banner has color sharing, sniping the shared color can give you a rate of 9% or higher. 

Regardless of all that, a higher total rate isn't worth much if it's only high because of including units you don't care about. If a legendary banner has the unit you want sharing a color with two units you already have, your rate of getting a new 5* is much lower than on a normal banner.

Edited by Othin

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25 minutes ago, Othin said:

8% is better than the usual total of 6%, but if a normal banner has color sharing, sniping the shared color can give you a rate of 9% or higher. 

Regardless of all that, a higher total rate isn't worth much if it's only high because of including units you don't care about. If a legendary banner has the unit you want sharing a color with two units you already have, your rate of getting a new 5* is much lower than on a normal banner.

First of 6%? The standard normal banner starts off with 3% 5 star rate.  Only special banners like double specials have 6 % sure but you get on them once and not again in favor of the years newer heroes. Even revival banners start off 4% 5 star rates.  And even if you do pull a 5 star there are more options to give you what you don't want than what you do.

Look both have issues but I think people have a bit of the blinders on when it comes to legendary/Mythic banners.  You still have to defy the odds that are against you in the first place to get the unit that you want and 8% is a better shot. Not to mention that you are restarting at this higher point if you do miss which most of your summons are going to be anyways.

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35 minutes ago, vikingsfan92 said:

The standard normal banner starts off with 3% 5 star rate.

No, a normal banner starts off with a 3% focus rate. Prior to the pseudo-demote system being implemented, the 5-star rate was 6%. Currently, the 5-star rate is 9%.

Regardless, a 3% focus rate divided 3 or 4 ways is still higher than an 8% focus rate divided 12 ways.

Additionally, on the off chance that you build up more than a +2% pity bonus on a normal banner, a pity breaker will only reduce your pity bonus by 2%. However, all of the possible pity breakers on a Legendary/Mythic Hero banner are focus units, which will always result in your pity bonus being completely reset.

Finally, Legendary/Mythic Hero banners don't have sparks, whereas New Heroes banners do. Additionally, CYL banners not only give you a free unit off the bat, but also give you 3 chances to spark to obtain the other 3 units.

Edited by Ice Dragon

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4 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

No, a normal banner starts off with a 3% focus rate. Prior to the pseudo-demote system being implemented, the 5-star rate was 6%. Currently, the 5-star rate is 9%.

Regardless, a 3% focus rate divided 3 or 4 ways is still higher than an 8% focus rate divided 12 ways.

The point of this a hero rises is to focus in particular units to be made free.  The math of the other color orbs doesn't exactly matter once you lock in your colored orb. You have a zero percent chance of pulling a red unit on a green, colorless, or blue orb.  So the focus rate of pulling say normal Lysethia on any banner don't exactly matter for your result on a blue orb because its simply not going to happen outside of a major major summoning glitch. All green, Red or blue units go down to zero the second a colorless orb is picked.  8% divided by three is 2.66 repeating percent to get a given legend on the right orb. Yes that is 0.34% less than 3 but that isn't exactly the full story as you can only get one of three possible options for a 5 star of a given color per legend banner.  So if the game decides you are getting a 5 star there is less options for the game to roll through than normal banners which have ~26 other options (the Sue banner for instance has that number of greens I counted).  The math has to be adjusted somehow due to the limitedness and it clearly is more generous towards the banner with less choices in getting a particular unit.  Adjusting for that I am not exactly sure on but I am willing to bet it makes up up for a large portion if not makes it in favor of the legend banners.

I also want to reemphasize the structuring and planning around when the heroes returning being a thing. Pick a legend that exists and there is a convenient chart telling you how long you have to save.  Compare that to say even the brave heroes  and its who knows when gamble.  Brave Dimtri has not had a focus banner with him on it since cyl. Lysethia just got hers as the voting gauntlet is up.  So even the most popular common pool units can appear like once or twice a year on focus. Where as Legendary units like even the newest one Claude can have more time a year appearances.  We already know he is back in May and he could easily be back in say November or December. Leif who is on the banner with Claude right now is back in June and again could easily make a  reappearance in the second half of the year in the november/December timeframe. The fact we know this now and not later is a big edge for savers for a particular cause budget at the exact right time.

5 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Finally, Legendary/Mythic Hero banners don't have sparks, whereas New Heroes banners do. Additionally, CYL banners not only give you a free unit off the bat, but also give you 3 chances to spark to obtain the other 3 units.

Again this point is less relevant for next year with the remix banners. I think people are being a little silly if they don't think they won't spice up banners with some of the more current legends. They won't be as current as the year passes. I am not just making this about this year in mind which yes I am extremely frustrated with but I would like people to be more open in the future. Because the same thing happening next year is just going to repeat the negatives of this year.

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7 hours ago, vikingsfan92 said:

You are leaving out that you have a higher rate to get a 5 star in general on the banner than you do on a normal one. Its much much easier to go deeper on a normal unit and not even walk away with a wrong 5 star unit only 3-4 stars.

I guess I was not too clear, but I have not left it out.

14 hours ago, XRay said:

Missing is a lot more common on Legendary and Mythic Foci compared to other Foci. The misses may be better, but it is not good enough to offset the higher cost of sniping the unit you want.

7 hours ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Aether raids defense says hi.  It doesn't take much commitment or knowledge to know that running a unit without the right blessing gives worse results.  And Legendary units are not only less consistent but mean you have to change whole teams out entirely.  AR defense is infinitely more emphasized as a mode  than arena defense is.  So it hurts more if you are out of season and legends are simply out of season more. Its easier to even stay slightly optimal with normal units and you can actually do something other than wait until a given day.

I will say mythics do have it slightly better in arena but still want to point out that they spend weeks without use just like legendaries in AR. A seasonal or normal unit can be more flexible and not have to wait as long.

 

Aether Raids defense means squat for the vast majority of players. If you are playing Aether Raids just to have decent rewards and you do not care about ranking, then it makes absolutely no sense to devote a lot of resources to defense. A player's offensive performance is far more important than their defensive performance in determining which Tier they will end up in. A free player can bounce in and out of Vault of Heaven without much difficulty, since it is absolutely trivial to get into Tier 27 with a little investment. And if a player does not care about Vault of Heaven at all and just wants to put in the minimal effort required, maintaining Tier 21 involves expending a peanut amount of effort.

You can use whatever Legendary Hero you want in the extra slot. There is absolutely no score penalty to using one out-of-season Legendary Hero in Aether Raids. This applies to both offense and defense. You just need someone like Reginn and Seiros to open up that extra slot, and Reginn is already free.

— — — — — — —

Regular Heroes and Special Heroes are definitely NOT as flexible as Mythic Heroes in Arena. You need to build three or four different core teams if you are using regular and Special Heroes.

Assuming you want to utilize the bare minimum of units, you will need three Legendaries and four Mythics to rank well in Arena. That is a total of seven units split into two core teams with a rotating semi-core of the three Legendaries.

If you want to do the traditional team composition route to rank well in Arena, you will need three Legendaries and six Heroes. That is a total of nine units split into three teams.

7 hours ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Again 5 stars in general have issues obtaining in the first place.  You can spend alot more trying to  get a 5* in the first place and hope its the right one on a normal banner.  People are undervaluing the 8% starting 5 star rate  and how painful building rate on normal banners can be. 

Sniping on Legendary and Mythic Foci is a LOT more painful than sniping on regular Foci. Regular Foci at least got guaranteed summons so you can always at least get one unit you want.

Edited by XRay

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2 hours ago, vikingsfan92 said:

The math of the other color orbs doesn't exactly matter once you lock in your colored orb.

Thanks for explaining conditional probability to me as if I didn't know how it works, but that doesn't refute my point.

A 3% focus rate divided 3 or 4 ways is still higher than an 8% focus rate divided 12 ways.

On a 3-character normal banner, you have on average a 4% chance to pull the focus character you want when selecting the matching color.

On a 4-character normal banner, you have on average a 3% chance to pull the focus character you want when selecting the matching color.

On a Legendary/Mythic Heroes banner, you have a 2.7% chance to pull the focus character you want when selecting the matching color.

 

2 hours ago, vikingsfan92 said:

So if the game decides you are getting a 5 star there is less options for the game to roll through than normal banners which have ~26 other options (the Sue banner for instance has that number of greens I counted).

Why are you comparing the chances of pulling for a standard pool character from a banner that they are not a focus of to the chances of pulling for a Legendary/Mythic Hero from a banner that they are a focus of?

You have a 3-4% chance to pull for a standard pool character from a banner that they are a focus of compared to a 2.7% chance to pull for a Legendary/Mythic Hero from a banner that they are a focus of.

You have a 0.11% chance to pull for a standard pool character from a banner that they are not a focus of compared to a 0% chance to pull for a Legendary/Mythic Hero from a banner that they are not a focus of.

No matter how you slice it, if you're looking for a specific character, you have better chance of pulling them if they are a standard pool character than if they are a Legendary/Mythic Hero.

 

2 hours ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Compare that to say even the brave heroes  and its who knows when gamble.

There's nothing stopping you from picking an amount of orbs you want to save and then not spending those orbs until the character you want to pull for gets a rerun.

Additionally, as we've all been saying, CYL characters are guaranteed to get a rerun every August. You can always plan on saving orbs for August. If they get rerun sooner, you can spend your orbs sooner, but that still doesn't screw up plans to save for August because you can just pretend like the sooner banner doesn't exist and continue saving for August and still have exactly as many orbs as you expect to have in August when the August CYL rerun banner rolls around.

A character showing up sooner than a guaranteed rerun cannot possibly screw any plans up because of the latter example above, and a character showing up later than a predicted rerun also cannot possibly screw any plans up because of the former example above.

 

If you really think that not knowing when a character will be rerun is so big of a deal to offset the lower chances to pull Legendary/Mythic Heroes, then what you should actually be angry about is that the characters that players are voting for are not exclusively Duo/Harmonic Heroes, which aren't on an announced rerun schedule and also aren't available from the standard summoning pool. Yet you're going on about standard pool characters as if they were harder to pull for than characters that are in neither the Legendary/Mythic rotation nor the standard summoning pool.

What it sounds like to me is that either there is a character you want that didn't get voted for or a character you don't want that did get voted for and you're trying to find some way to justify why they should or shouldn't have been voted for. In other words, you've already made your mind on the conclusion and are only searching for arguments that support your conclusion while ignoring or downplaying arguments that refute it.

 

2 hours ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Again this point is less relevant for next year with the remix banners.

We have zero reason to believe that any of the recently released Legendary and Mythic Heroes will appear on Remix banners. In fact, we do have reason to believe that they won't appear on Remix banners.

Remix banners are clearly intended as a means to retire older Legendary Heroes from rotation on the Legendary/Mythic Hero banners. The most recent Remix banner featured characters released three years ago. Next year, we can at best expect Remix banners to include Legendary Heroes from 2019.

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4 hours ago, vikingsfan92 said:

The point of this a hero rises is to focus in particular units to be made free.  The math of the other color orbs doesn't exactly matter once you lock in your colored orb. You have a zero percent chance of pulling a red unit on a green, colorless, or blue orb.  So the focus rate of pulling say normal Lysethia on any banner don't exactly matter for your result on a blue orb because its simply not going to happen outside of a major major summoning glitch. All green, Red or blue units go down to zero the second a colorless orb is picked.  8% divided by three is 2.66 repeating percent to get a given legend on the right orb. Yes that is 0.34% less than 3 but that isn't exactly the full story as you can only get one of three possible options for a 5 star of a given color per legend banner.  So if the game decides you are getting a 5 star there is less options for the game to roll through than normal banners which have ~26 other options (the Sue banner for instance has that number of greens I counted).  The math has to be adjusted somehow due to the limitedness and it clearly is more generous towards the banner with less choices in getting a particular unit.  Adjusting for that I am not exactly sure on but I am willing to bet it makes up up for a large portion if not makes it in favor of the legend banners.

The size of the non-focus pool does not affect the probability of pulling a specific unit from the focus pool.

On Sue’s banner, you have a 3% chance of a focus 5* and a 3% chance of a non-focus 5*. That roughly translates to 3% chance of Sue from a green orb (assuming a four focus unit banner, a three focus unit banner has a 4% chance), and 0.1153% chance of each of the green 26 non-focus units. Say there were 300 green units in the non-focus pool. You would have a 0.01% chance of pulling each one, but still 3% chance of Sue.

The chance of Sue will always be higher than the 2.66% chance of pulling a specific legendary.

Edited by Baldrick

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5 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

If you really think that not knowing when a character will be rerun is so big of a deal to offset the lower chances to pull Legendary/Mythic Heroes, then what you should actually be angry about is that the characters that players are voting for are not exclusively Duo/Harmonic Heroes, which aren't on an announced rerun schedule and also aren't available from the standard summoning pool. Yet you're going on about standard pool characters as if they were harder to pull for than characters that are in neither the Legendary/Mythic rotation nor the standard summoning pool.

What it sounds like to me is that either there is a character you want that didn't get voted for or a character you don't want that did get voted for and you're trying to find some way to justify why they should or shouldn't have been voted for. In other words, you've already made your mind on the conclusion and are only searching for arguments that support your conclusion while ignoring or downplaying arguments that refute it.

I have made the point I am supporting seasonal as well as normal banner units. Btw I don't support just duo/harmonics for seasonal just any really good seasonal. Henriette, Gustav, insert good seasonal here, ect.  It just gets lost in the other point because people are so focused on arguing against my opinion.  I get it that my other point is not shared so its going to take up the bulk of peoples attention but I have made points supporting seasonal units in my arguments both here and when I brought it up before.  

A rise of seasonal would be more than ok with me. Its really only my okayness with normal banner units that is causing the disagreements.

 

5 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

We have zero reason to believe that any of the recently released Legendary and Mythic Heroes will appear on Remix banners. In fact, we do have reason to believe that they won't appear on Remix banners.

Remix banners are clearly intended as a means to retire older Legendary Heroes from rotation on the Legendary/Mythic Hero banners. The most recent Remix banner featured characters released three years ago. Next year, we can at best expect Remix banners to include Legendary Heroes from 2019.

Staleness is a real thing they have to balance. Repeating the same units on the remix banners over and over again is going to kill interest in them for people. Look at how they have done the normal legendary banners they make a real effort to mix it up.  Yes it is part of the point but interest in the banners still needs to generate interest or else they aren't worth doing and IS will look elsewhere.  And its not just about the banner units but they have to give off color options for the banners themselves. That I think is going to get spiced up at least once or twice in the multiple they are doing in this year.

5 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

Thanks for explaining conditional probability to me as if I didn't know how it works, but that doesn't refute my point.

A 3% focus rate divided 3 or 4 ways is still higher than an 8% focus rate divided 12 ways.

On a 3-character normal banner, you have on average a 4% chance to pull the focus character you want when selecting the matching color.

On a 4-character normal banner, you have on average a 3% chance to pull the focus character you want when selecting the matching color.

On a Legendary/Mythic Heroes banner, you have a 2.7% chance to pull the focus character you want when selecting the matching color.

 

Thing is I don't even think that covers all the math involved on both banner types. There has to be some part of the equations that puts limits on who is in and who is out due to the exclusivity of options in the Legend banner and sorts through pity breakers on the normal ones.  Just like there has to be some part of the summoning algorithm that excludes units based on color.  What that exactly looks like I don't know and don't know if we have ways of knowing but it likely means that the 2.7% figure is an approximate base on part of the equation when the actual figure could vary depending on how they handle what choice of 5 star at the end. And how much IS actually is giving focus an advantage in the complex summoning math for both.  I do think there is a possibility of an edge factor in both because the actual math used might be giving to low of numbers for rates and they actually have to put an a bit extra in to comply with gacha laws or compete with other gachas that get us to the 8% and 3% focus rates we know and love that makes summoning both types of a heroes a bit easier than the math implies.

 

5 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

There's nothing stopping you from picking an amount of orbs you want to save and then not spending those orbs until the character you want to pull for gets a rerun.

Additionally, as we've all been saying, CYL characters are guaranteed to get a rerun every August. You can always plan on saving orbs for August. If they get rerun sooner, you can spend your orbs sooner, but that still doesn't screw up plans to save for August because you can just pretend like the sooner banner doesn't exist and continue saving for August and still have exactly as many orbs as you expect to have in August when the August CYL rerun banner rolls around.

A character showing up sooner than a guaranteed rerun cannot possibly screw any plans up because of the latter example above, and a character showing up later than a predicted rerun also cannot possibly screw any plans up because of the former example above.

 

As I keep getting ignored on this comes back to timing alot.  Sure it happens on August but guess what also happens in August regular cyl and reruns of the other cyls.  Its not like players have just one interested character.  I don't think its particularly sound advice to say wait until the one of the most summoned banners of the year if not the most summoned banner and use orbs on something else if there is something you have interest in. People can have multiple interests and Cyl is something the entire community looks forward to.   Look I get that if the focusing on a hero you have to make sacrifices but I think we can at agree that this one is has some timing problems.

5 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

A character showing up sooner than a guaranteed rerun cannot possibly screw any plans up because of the latter example above, and a character showing up later than a predicted rerun also cannot possibly screw any plans up because of the former example above.

Yes it can absolutely can because if you look at most people who do save they usually have more than one time they are saving up for.  Savers don't usually just plan for one thing they plan for multiple banners in advanced. Look at reactions to new banners a common comment is "why did this character come out this month I was budgeting for month x instead" because they have multiple characters they want and multiple save projects.  Maybe you still can have no problems with your first project but it can impact your others and have a ripple effect on your budget.

 5 hours ago, XRay said:

Aether Raids defense means squat for the vast majority of players. If you are playing Aether Raids just to have decent rewards and you do not care about ranking, then it makes absolutely no sense to devote a lot of resources to defense. A player's offensive performance is far more important than their defensive performance in determining which Tier they will end up in. A free player can bounce in and out of Vault of Heaven without much difficulty, since it is absolutely trivial to get into Tier 27 with a little investment. And if a player does not care about Vault of Heaven at all and just wants to put in the minimal effort required, maintaining Tier 21 involves expending a peanut amount of effort.

You can use whatever Legendary Hero you want in the extra slot. There is absolutely no score penalty to using one out-of-season Legendary Hero in Aether Raids. This applies to both offense and defense. You just need someone like Reginn and Seiros to open up that extra slot, and Reginn is already free.

Your wrong slightly  about the extra slot  Legendary heroes in the extra slot is dependent on season if it works. The extra slot currently requires Reginn or Serios and must be either anima/Astra blessed depending on which mythic you are running or the in season legendary.  You can't use a wind legend in the extra slot outside of wind season. You could put a Astra/Anima unit in that slot but not wind.  

And even if you aren't trying to get vault to heavens a slight improvement to defense still can be a tiers worth of rewards. So having the option to be run consistently defensively can make a difference to how much you get per year even if it is small.

5 hours ago, XRay said:

Missing is a lot more common on Legendary and Mythic Foci compared to other Foci. The misses may be better, but it is not good enough to offset the higher cost of sniping the unit you want.

I will just repeat what I said above the math isn't so simple.

 

 

 

Edited by vikingsfan92

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1 hour ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Your wrong slightly  about the extra slot  Legendary heroes in the extra slot is dependent on season if it works. The extra slot currently requires Reginn or Serios and must be either anima/Astra blessed depending on which mythic you are running or the in season legendary.  You can't use a wind legend in the extra slot outside of wind season. You could put a Astra/Anima unit in that slot but not wind.

I see. I was mistaken.

1 hour ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Your wrong slightly  about the extra slot  Legendary heroes in the extra slot is dependent on season if it works. The extra slot currently requires Reginn or Serios and must be either anima/Astra blessed depending on which mythic you are running or the in season legendary.  You can't use a wind legend in the extra slot outside of wind season. You could put a Astra/Anima unit in that slot but not wind.

For a player who does not care about ranking, the cost to invest in defense is not worth the amount in return, if there are any. It makes far more sense to invest in offense than on defense when offense contributes to Lift far more. For these players, losing a Tier is no big deal as long as they still get decent rewards.

1 hour ago, vikingsfan92 said:

I will just repeat what I said above the math isn't so simple.

The math says Mythics and Legendaries are more expensive to snipe on average. That is indisputable.

For most players, if they can pick something for free, they will choose units that are more expensive. It makes no sense for them to pick something that costs less.

  

1 hour ago, vikingsfan92 said:

I have made the point I am supporting seasonal as well as normal banner units. Btw I don't support just duo/harmonics for seasonal just any really good seasonal. Henriette, Gustav, insert good seasonal here, ect.  It just gets lost in the other point because people are so focused on arguing against my opinion.  I get it that my other point is not shared so its going to take up the bulk of peoples attention but I have made points supporting seasonal units in my arguments both here and when I brought it up before.  

A rise of seasonal would be more than ok with me. Its really only my okayness with normal banner units that is causing the disagreements.

Players who are after powerful characters do not want something that is just "good". They want something top tier. Most Special Heroes that are not Duos nor Harmonics are nowhere near top tier.

LOAK!Henriette is the prime example of being a decent unit that is nowhere near top tier. She may seem top tier because of her Save skill, but top tier units can make better use of that Save skill by being more difficult to kill. LOAK!Henriette has nowhere near the level of bulk that top tier tanks have, such as AOTB!Hector, FF!Idunn, and ANF!Edelgard.

Edited by XRay

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24 minutes ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Btw I don't support just duo/harmonics for seasonal just any really good seasonal.

A non-seasonal Duo Hero exists, by the way.

 

18 minutes ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Repeating the same units on the remix banners over and over again is going to kill interest in them for people.

Remix banners appear to be running every other month instead of every month. There are currently 14 Legendary Heroes that do not have Pair Up as their Legendary effect, which is a pretty reasonable place to put the cut-off between Remix Heroes and the standard rotation. Even if they decide to never rerun units from this hypothetical Remix rotation until all other units have been run, at 4-5 Legendary Heroes per banner, that's still 6 months between reruns.

 

29 minutes ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Thing is I don't even think that covers all the math involved on both banner types.

The numbers are accurate enough.

For example, the numbers for Enduring Legacy look like this (average from above is 3%):

  • Mahnya and Azel are 2.83% each when pulling red
  • Ferry is 2.91% when pulling blue
  • 5-star Lex is 3.51% when pulling green

The numbers for Claude's Legendary Hero banner looks like this (average from above is 2.67%):

  • Hrid, Seliph, and Altina are 2.53% each when pulling red
  • Tiki, Naga, and Melady are 2.52% each when pulling blue
  • Hel, Triandra, and Annette are 3.49% each when pulling green
  • Mila, Claude, and Leaf are 2.37% each when pulling colorless

Note that green is consistently much higher than the rest due to the fact that there are significantly fewer green units in the 4-star and 3-star pools with red, blue, and colorless relatively the same as each other, which skews the green 5-star rate higher than average and the other colors lower than average. This is because if you multiply the probability that you pull a 5-star character by the probability that any given orb is that color and add them up for all 5-star characters on the banner, you get the exact value of the average, e.g.

P(Mahnya | red) × P(red) + P(Azel | red) × P(red) + P(Ferry | blue) × P(blue) + P(Lex | green) × P(green) = P(5-star focus) ÷ [number of 5-star focuses] × [number of colors] = average
(2.83% × 26.46%) + (2.83% × 26.46%) + (2.91% × 25.76%) + (3.51% × 21.35%) = 3% ÷ 4 × 4 = 3%

 

1 hour ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Sure it happens on August but guess what also happens in August regular cyl and reruns of the other cyls.

That doesn't change anything. You can plan to save for multiple characters just as easily as you can plan to save for one character.

You can save 500 orbs each starting in March for one character being run in May and another character being run in August just as easily as you can save 500 orbs each starting in March for two characters being run in August.

All you need to do is give yourself enough time to stock up that many orbs and have the restraint to not use them up on other banners.

 

1 hour ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Look at reactions to new banners a common comment is "why did this character come out this month I was budgeting for month x instead" because they have multiple characters they want and multiple save projects.

If you're budgeting for multiple projects and the timing of a banner is what screws up your budget, then that means you wouldn't have had enough orbs for your planned budget anyways.

And if for some reason all of your projects suddenly get banners all around the same time, you can simply choose not to pull on some of those banners and wait for the unit to return in another rerun. There is no unit in the game that will ever be permanently disqualified from ever being on a banner again.

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So, it's looking like finals will be between the two colorless units. 
That's great for me, as I want merges for Corrin and I don't have Lynja. 

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4 hours ago, Rinco said:

So, it's looking like finals will be between the two colorless units.

It’s still way too early to definitively call either semifinal match.

Plus as things stand now in Seiros v Corrin, the former is now likely to win as that match has now entered same hell and will likely stay there for the rest of the round.

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9 minutes ago, Tybrosion said:

It’s still way too early to definitively call either semifinal match.

Plus as things stand now in Seiros v Corrin, the former is now likely to win as that match has now entered same hell and will likely stay there for the rest of the round.

Yeah, just saw it in the spreadsheet. 
Team Corrin needs to spend some flags and try to trigger a multiplier earlier for Seiros, that's what I'll be doing even if its not the best for scoring.

I really don't want Seiros to win, since I already have one and I'll possibily pull more in the banner going for Dimitri merges and redundant Seiros aren't that great. Her fodder isn't that great and merges on defensive Mythics like Seiros (combat units) are also not something good on the long run.

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11 hours ago, XRay said:

Players who are after powerful characters do not want something that is just "good". They want something top tier. Most Special Heroes that are not Duos nor Harmonics are nowhere near top tier.

LOAK!Henriette is the prime example of being a decent unit that is nowhere near top tier. She may seem top tier because of her Save skill, but top tier units can make better use of that Save skill by being more difficult to kill. LOAK!Henriette has nowhere near the level of bulk that top tier tanks have, such as AOTB!Hector, FF!Idunn, and ANF!Edelgard.

Are you forgetting about fodder purposes for the units you mentioned?  Anyways its not about being too attached to which particular seasonal its just imo seasonals> Legendaries in terms of what should get credit.

 

11 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

Remix banners appear to be running every other month instead of every month. There are currently 14 Legendary Heroes that do not have Pair Up as their Legendary effect, which is a pretty reasonable place to put the cut-off between Remix Heroes and the standard rotation. Even if they decide to never rerun units from this hypothetical Remix rotation until all other units have been run, at 4-5 Legendary Heroes per banner, that's still 6 months between reruns.

If refines/Resplendent are anything to by I don't think we can count on set orders or anything like that.  While I broadly agree that they will take age into account I don't think IS will be straight forward with how they do it. I also don't think the other options have nearly as restricted rules as people want to say.  I do think there is an argument that we need to wait and see on future remixes. I just don't think we can take a set view on them right now or that they aren't going to throw in surprises or a wrench in expectations given how they tend to like doing that with other stuff like resplendent, refines, divine codes ect.

11 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:
12 hours ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Btw I don't support just duo/harmonics for seasonal just any really good seasonal.

A non-seasonal Duo Hero exists, by the way.

I don't oppose people voting for said hero either.  Strength is what matters most and I simply thing people are undervaluing the strengths of the non-legend/Mythics.

11 hours ago, XRay said:

The math says Mythics and Legendaries are more expensive to snipe on average. That is indisputable.

For most players, if they can pick something for free, they will choose units that are more expensive. It makes no sense for them to pick something that costs less.

No what it actually says is up for debate as its not fully known. People are taking incomplete math as fact when its simply that incomplete math. What the actual completed math says isn't so clear cut.  It is important to consider that pity rate ups exist and those actually tip the favor in legendarys. Going from 8% to 8. 25% divided 3 ways is more meaningful than going 3 to 3.25% divided alot more than three times because that growth is more concentrated among the 3 options in the legend pool than it is the normal pool.

As for how often it takes takes a rate up to get said unit needs a rate up in general is something that is growing beyond my scope and but I do think is important to keep in mind though because you are already beating the odds to get a 5 star without a pity rate up on both banner regardless. The general expectation from experience is you are probably going to need at least one rate up to get a 5 star in general.   Where exactly the break even point is I am not sure but I do think it isn't accurately portrayed by just the initial rate stat alone. I don't claim to have all the answers here but I do know enough to say that we are only looking at pieces of the larger whole.

 

11 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

That doesn't change anything. You can plan to save for multiple characters just as easily as you can plan to save for one character.

You can save 500 orbs each starting in March for one character being run in May and another character being run in August just as easily as you can save 500 orbs each starting in March for two characters being run in August.

All you need to do is give yourself enough time to stock up that many orbs and have the restraint to not use them up on other banners.

Good budgeting lets you go a little pass the target number without issues to account for disaster scenarios.  People aren't realistically going to ignore a 11% rate (aka they got super unlucky) after summoning hard for something if that is what happens at the end of 500.  The problem with two targets simultaneously is your ability to flex is almost not existent. Not to mention more time in between may also give you a chance to up that budget altogether with just log in bonus orbs alone in not other factors.  That alone dents your chance of hitting your targets if they are too near each other in terms of time.

 

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There are enough mistakes in one sentence that I'm going to have to split this up into separate quote blocks. Damn.

 

23 minutes ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Going from 8% to 8. 25%

The first pity bonus on a Legendary Hero banner brings the Focus rate up to 8.5%, not 8.25%.

 

23 minutes ago, vikingsfan92 said:

3 to 3.25% divided alot more than three times

You're trying to compare a Legendary Hero Focus pull with a standard pool non-Focus pull again. Those situations are not comparable.

If you're comparing a Legendary Hero Focus pull with a standard pool Focus pull, that 3% or 3.25% is divided one way on a 4-character banner or less than one way on a 3-character banner.

 

23 minutes ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Going from 8% to 8. 25% divided 3 ways is more meaningful than going 3 to 3.25% divided alot more than three times because that growth is more concentrated among the 3 options in the legend pool than it is the normal pool.

And even though you got the pity bonus wrong and it's even higher than you said it was, you're still wrong.

8% divided 3 ways is 2.67%. 8.5% divided 3 ways is 2.83%. That's an increase of 1.0625×.

3% divided 1 way is 3%. 3.25% divided 1 way is 3.25%. That's an increase of 1.0833×.

You get a bigger increase to your pity rate from a normal banner than from a Legendary Hero banner.

And even if I let you compare to a non-Focus character, 3% divided 50 ways is 0.06%, and 3.25% divided 50 ways is 0.065%, which is still an increase of 1.0833×. Multiplication and division are wonderful like that.

And if you try to argue about the additive boost, that's ultimately meaningless because the difference it makes depends on the size of the original value. Being off by a meter is a huge deal when building a house, but being off by a meter is meaningless when planning a road trip.

 

EDIT: Furthermore, the 5-star summon rate is higher on a Legendary Hero banner, so it will on average take fewer pulls to reset your pity bonus. This means that on average, you will have a lower pity bonus than on a standard banner.

For example, on a Legendary Hero banner, if you pull 1 5-star unit exactly every 1/8% = 12.5, rounded to 13, pulls, your average pity bonus is 0.42%.

But on a standard banner, if you pull 1 5-star unit exactly every 1/6% = 16.7, rounded to 17, pulls, your average pity bonus is 0.46%.

So even in terms of pity bonus, standard banners give you better outcomes when aiming for exactly one Focus character.

Edited by Ice Dragon

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@vikingsfan92 Akariss on youtube has some videos on the math behind summoning on different kinds of banners. Could be useful to check it out. He event links a summoning simulator, so you'd be able to crunch the numbers there to check everything out.

Edited by Rinco

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1 minute ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Are you forgetting about fodder purposes for the units you mentioned?  Anyways its not about being too attached to which particular seasonal its just imo seasonals> Legendaries in terms of what should get credit.

I guess picking LOAK!Henriette for her Save skill makes some sense.

19 minutes ago, vikingsfan92 said:

No what it actually says is up for debate as its not fully known. People are taking incomplete math as fact when its simply that incomplete math. What the actual completed math says isn't so clear cut.  It is important to consider that pity rate ups exist and those actually tip the favor in legendarys. Going from 8% to 8. 25% divided 3 ways is more meaningful than going 3 to 3.25% divided alot more than three times because that growth is more concentrated among the 3 options in the legend pool than it is the normal pool.

It is fully known. We even have a summoning simulator, so we know Mythics and Legendaries are more expensive.

For the current Mythic Focus, using the above simulator with a sample size of 5,000, if a player only wants merge Triandra to +10, players need to spend 1,850 Orbs on average.

For Princess of Bern Focus, also with a 5,000 sample size, if a player only wants to merge Dieck to +10, players need to spend 1,552 Orbs on average.

Mythics and Legendaries are about 20% more expensive ([1850-1552]/1552~19.2%) to merge up.

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Dimitri got what he wanted, to defeat Edelgard, so he don't give a fuck what happens later I guess

Between Seiros and Corrin, who's the likely winner over there?

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1 minute ago, Sunwoo said:

Between Seiros and Corrin, who's the likely winner over there?

Seiros is going to win. We've been trapped in same hell for hours in that match.

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I already have Seiros and I want Lyn, so this will determine whether or not I go for the spark.

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I want ITM!Lyn to win since it would make free guides easier. Double Brazen Atk/Spd is pretty bonkers on someone like her. 

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In terms of what free unit from the banner I'd like, the order is Lyn >>>>>> Corrin > Seiros > Dimitri, so with candidates #1 and #3 facing off in the final, it's not an ideal situation but it could have been far worse. I'll take it, since the spark will save me anyway and without being an active player, merges won't matter.

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