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Diovani Bressan

Voting Gauntlet: AHR 2021 Finals!

Voting Gauntlet Poll  

62 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. So... Which army will you support?

    • Seiros: Saint of Legend
    • Micaiah: Dawn Wind's Duo
    • Freyja: Lady of Nightmare
    • Corrin: Child of Dusk
    • Lyn: Ninja-Friend Duo
    • Byleth: Fell Star's Duo
      0
    • Dimitri: Savior King
    • Edelgard: Adrestian Emperor

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  • Poll closed on 03/04/21 at 02:59 AM

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I meant it when I said I didn't really care who wins, but this is still a pretty nice situation for me. If Seiros wins, I get a Mythic I don't have. If Lynja wins, I get...well, another Lynja. If Lynja wins I might try my luck at getting them to +10.

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24 minutes ago, Florete said:

I meant it when I said I didn't really care who wins, but this is still a pretty nice situation for me. If Seiros wins, I get a Mythic I don't have. If Lynja wins, I get...well, another Lynja. If Lynja wins I might try my luck at getting them to +10.

If you ever get a [+Atk, -HP] copy on your way to +10, make sure to set it aside and save it! That -HP is really handy to guarantee reaching Wings of Mercy range in three rounds of combat. If we get Fury Sacred Seal, then she can enter Wings of Mercy range within two rounds of combat.

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3 minutes ago, XRay said:

If you ever get a [+Atk, -HP] copy on your way to +10, make sure to set it aside and save it! That -HP is really handy to guarantee reaching Wings of Mercy range in three rounds of combat. If we get Fury Sacred Seal, then she can enter Wings of Mercy range within two rounds of combat.

That's actually the one I've got now, exactly as originally summoned. But I don't take AR seriously enough to worry about Fury/WoM shenanigans.

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Seiros wins, I can give Halloween Robin Dragon Wall real easily.
Ninja Lyn wins, I can... give Lyn a merge I guess? Give someone some good skill fodder? I mean, I got +Atk -HP too, so kinda just waiting for a Fury seal...

Either way, the aHR banner will be good, I get a free unit, and also I get the usual Voting Gauntlet rewards. Usually I don't care who wins, and this time I really don't care.

...you know, it'd be cool if there was a VG reward based on the number of times your Castle Rep "helped" another person in battle, like 10 feathers per "help" or something like that. Not exactly helpful or exploitable for feather hunters, just a neat little bonus for having a good little helper.

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So now for me it's either a new unit, or Spd/Def Rein 3 + Swift Sparrow 3 for Cordelia.

Yeah, count me in on the Seiros train. Sorry Lynja supporters, I'm not looking for a free unit who'll just be fodder.

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I'll choose randomly again because both would be new for me and both would be atrocious to have to go up against in AR and arena.

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So, my top 3 got into the top 4, and my preferred winner has lost. Further, the final fight is between my 2nd and 3rd pick our of the 8. Not bad. As I said before, if the Blue Lion lost, I'd jump over to the Blue Dragon.

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8 hours ago, Diovani Bressan said:

I hope Lyn wins, since I don't have her.

Agreed.

It's looking like a coin toss right now. Both armies are so similar in size that they tend to keep alternating multipliers, the predictor is currently expecting a Seiros win but a bit of difference earlier on could easily change that.

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On 3/2/2021 at 5:09 PM, Ice Dragon said:
On 3/2/2021 at 4:47 PM, vikingsfan92 said:

concentrated among the 3 options in the legend pool than it is the normal pool.

And even though you got the pity bonus wrong and it's even higher than you said it was, you're still wrong.

8% divided 3 ways is 2.67%. 8.5% divided 3 ways is 2.83%. That's an increase of 1.0625×.

3% divided 1 way is 3%. 3.25% divided 1 way is 3.25%. That's an increase of 1.0833×.

You get a bigger increase to your pity rate from a normal banner than from a Legendary Hero banner.

And even if I let you compare to a non-Focus character, 3% divided 50 ways is 0.06%, and 3.25% divided 50 ways is 0.065%, which is still an increase of 1.0833×. Multiplication and division are wonderful like that.

And if you try to argue about the additive boost, that's ultimately meaningless because the difference it makes depends on the size of the original value. Being off by a meter is a huge deal when building a house, but being off by a meter is meaningless when planning a road trip.

Lets just say I think the additive bonus isn't as easily written off. I think I have made my larger points and have no problems just agreeing that we won't see fully eye to eye.

 

On 3/2/2021 at 5:25 PM, XRay said:

I guess picking LOAK!Henriette for her Save skill makes some sense.

It is fully known. We even have a summoning simulator, so we know Mythics and Legendaries are more expensive.

For the current Mythic Focus, using the above simulator with a sample size of 5,000, if a player only wants merge Triandra to +10, players need to spend 1,850 Orbs on average.

For Princess of Bern Focus, also with a 5,000 sample size, if a player only wants to merge Dieck to +10, players need to spend 1,552 Orbs on average.

Mythics and Legendaries are about 20% more expensive ([1850-1552]/1552~19.2%) to merge up.

Look I know summoning simulators exist. I do think they are cool and novel . I do respect that they take a lot of effort and work to even make something close to the main thing.  Maybe I am just the real hands on type or just cynical but I don't just trust them because they exist.  I know I have for other game ran into sims that I think where I felt where more generous than the actual games.

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The mechanics of summoning are well known and not particularly complex. Provided the summon simulator is updated regularly with new additions to the summoning pool, they will be accurate. Being that the linked one officially supports the current Legendary banner, it is safe to assume the underlying summoning pool is accurate (which would be testable by seeing if the latest demotes turn up). The other one on fullyconcentrated is somewhat out of date though, true, because it is not being constantly updated, but then again that tool exists for a different purpose than this one.

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5 minutes ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Lets just say I think the additive bonus isn't as easily written off. I think I have made my larger points and have no problems just agreeing that we won't see fully eye to eye.

Okay. But can you actually substantiate that claim? Thinking that something is true doesn't make it true.

A multiplicative difference can be directly applied to the number of pulls you should be expected to make. Having a 2× chance means the expected number of pulls you need to make is reduced to 1/2 regardless of what the original chance or the original expected number of pulls was. Having a 3× chance means the expected number of pulls you need to make is reduced to 1/3 regardless of what the original chance or the original expected number of pulls was.

Expressed as an equation,

[multiplicative change in expected number of pulls] = 1 / [multiplicative increase in chance]

This is not the case with an additive difference, where the relationship to the expected number of pulls depends not only on the difference, but also the original chance. An additive difference of 50% matters more when your original chance is 1% (reduces your expected number of pulls to 1/51 of the original) than when your original chance is 50% (reduces your expected number of pulls to 1/2 of the original).

Expressed as equations,

[multiplicative change in expected number of pulls] = 1 / (1 + [additive increase in chance] / [original chance]).

[additive change in expected number of pulls] = 1 / ([original chance] + [additive increase in chance]) − 1 / [original chance]

There's no way to remove the original chance from either equation, making the effect of the additive increase in chance completely dependent on the original chance.

 

No, I don't think I can agree to not agree. Not unless you're fine agreeing that I think you just want to cut your losses by backing out of a losing argument. Your alternative is to prove me wrong by substantiating your claim rather than just asserting it.

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5 hours ago, vikingsfan92 said:

Lets just say I think the additive bonus isn't as easily written off. I think I have made my larger points and have no problems just agreeing that we won't see fully eye to eye.

 

Look I know summoning simulators exist. I do think they are cool and novel . I do respect that they take a lot of effort and work to even make something close to the main thing.  Maybe I am just the real hands on type or just cynical but I don't just trust them because they exist.  I know I have for other game ran into sims that I think where I felt where more generous than the actual games.

I'm not going to try to rehash the existing arguments, but I want to jump in as another voice to say that you're just wrong. We understand the math, and as Ice Dragon has been explaining, it does not agree with you.

Edited by Othin

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Yeah dude, facts are facts even if you don't like them. You can't just say "let's agree to disagree" because you don't like facts.

Anyway, back to the VG topic because - holy shit - who's currently predicted to win? Any unexpected surprises happen overnight?

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3 hours ago, Sunwoo said:

Yeah dude, facts are facts even if you don't like them. You can't just say "let's agree to disagree" because you don't like facts.

Anyway, back to the VG topic because - holy shit - who's currently predicted to win? Any unexpected surprises happen overnight?

JTGfOYi.png

Current prediction is for the current stalemate to end in a bit over an hour, and then they start trading multipliers until Lyn takes the lead with the last one.

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@Othin did the predictor change since it is still a stalemate?  Just want to know when there is a chance of a multiplier happening so I can spend my last flags.

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2 minutes ago, EricaofRenais said:

@Othin did the predictor change since it is still a stalemate?  Just want to know when there is a chance of a multiplier happening so I can spend my last flags.

Yeah, it's now predicting only one multiplier for each team and a Seiros win.

RRvOA0V.png

Which goes to show how much things can change, lol.

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Just now, Othin said:

Yeah, it's now predicting only one multiplier for each team and a Seiros win.

RRvOA0V.png

Which goes to show how much things can change, lol.

Thanks now I can plan for that.

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1 hour ago, EricaofRenais said:

Thanks now I can plan for that.

NLddKg4.png

Maybe these aren't the most useful for planning.

On the one hand, rip my remaining 800 flags. On the other hand, go Lyn!

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To be fair, the last few hours have been unpredictable, probably since the teams are so close in size. Seiros was pulling ahead slowly, now Lyn is gaining.

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Maybe we're in the stalemate where both sides are waiting to use all their flags and ballots, so only people who don't do that are battling and increasing score now?

This is a battle people actually wanna win after all... well, people who care about Seiros and Duo Lyn.

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