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So, uh, the Ukraine-Russian situation


Jotari
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I think Russia made the mistake of not committing all their forces at once, if a quick victory is what they are seeking, although I guess it also possible they could not commit everything at once if they have logistical issues. I hope Ukraine can hold on for now until more international volunteers can come in to help out.

I have a bad feeling that the war might drag on for a while and prolong the suffering of Ukrainians. Even if Russia commits everything right now, they might face an extremely intense insurgency.

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1 hour ago, XRay said:

I have a bad feeling that the war might drag on for a while and prolong the suffering of Ukrainians. Even if Russia commits everything right now, they might face an extremely intense insurgency.

I'm not at all an expert but you hear a lot of talk of Russia not having the resources for a drawn out war and that their operation hinged on a quick Ukranian collapse. Apparently many Russian vehicles are already running out of fuel and needed to be abandoned. 

But I think that just means we'll be more likely to see a stark increase in warcrimes the coming days since Putin's time is running out and that if he can't win soon he'll lose. 

Edited by Etrurian emperor
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52 minutes ago, Etrurian emperor said:

I'm not at all an expert but you hear a lot of talk of Russia not having the resources for a drawn out war and that their operation hinged on a quick Ukranian collapse. Apparently many Russian vehicles are already running out of fuel and needed to be abandoned. 

...How do they run out exactly?

I'm genuinely confused, this isn't Operation Barbarossa. You'd think an autocrat who basically owns a petrol company and can squeeze Europe by the energy nuts via said oil powerhouse, could flood his army with all the black gold he needs when he needs it for a huge glorious gambit he has been long in planning.

 

15 minutes ago, Acacia Sgt said:

Seems hackers are in full work mode:

 

Nice to see Russia on the receiving end of hacking for a change.

Edited by Interdimensional Observer
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22 minutes ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

...How do they run out exactly?

I'm genuinely confused, this isn't Operation Barbarossa. You'd think an autocrat who basically owns a petrol company and can squeeze Europe by the energy nuts via said oil powerhouse, could flood his army with all the black gold he needs when he needs it for a huge glorious gambit he has been long in planning.

Russia exports almost half of it. Then consider that public consumption also takes another good chunk. So the percentage that goes to the military isn't that large. Of course, he could start forcing his people to ration...

Also, having all that oil matters little if the refineries can't work it all at the same time, which could be the case here, maybe. So if the army is spending more fuel than they can produce...

Gasoline also has a shelf life, even if it's admittedly around a year for diesel, but it still means the surplus stock can't be too huge either. So if they are actually going through those reserves...

---

SWIFT related actions finally happening:

 

Edited by Acacia Sgt
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30 minutes ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

I'm genuinely confused, this isn't Operation Barbarossa. You'd think an autocrat who basically owns a petrol company and can squeeze Europe by the energy nuts via said oil powerhouse, could flood his army with all the black gold he needs when he needs it for a huge glorious gambit he has been long in planning.

Maybe Russia just isn't well managed enough? Its essentially a gangster oligarchy. Or its possible that the decission to invade was made later than we'd thing. But that's all speculation of course. 

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52 minutes ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

...How do they run out exactly?

I'm assuming that they haven't resorted to looting the locals, yet. But at any rate, this might be an indicator that this wasn't premeditated; or at the very least, Putin is unaware of how logistics works.

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Don't know how truthful it is, but...

Seems even some of the Russian soldiers had enough of this.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/russia-ukraine-live-updates-n1289976/ncrd1289985#liveBlogCards

Kazakhstan has also refused to send troops upon being requested by Russia. They're also refusing to recognize the breakaway republics.

Edited by Acacia Sgt
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5 hours ago, Etrurian emperor said:

Maybe Russia just isn't well managed enough? Its essentially a gangster oligarchy. Or its possible that the decission to invade was made later than we'd thing. But that's all speculation of course. 

This is an article from January which has proved to be quite accurate and gives a better under standing of Russia's point of view.

https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/

Tl;Dr Russia is getting I increasingly nervous about Ukraine's militarization, especially their construction if long range ballistic missiles that could hit Moscow. So the whole thing is basically to embarrass and decimate the Ukranian military. It also reveals that yes, this had been brewing for some months now.

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It's also possible they're doing this to prevent Ukraine to become an oil and gas competitor. Ukraine has a lot of natural gas reserves... including shale gas at the Donbas. Likewise Ukraine lost access to a lot of deposits after what happened to Crimea.

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I've just heard this from a friend, so I don't know how much of it is true. Is it the case that there's also some domestic opposition within Russia in regards to this live conflict round? I know that there were over a thousand people who marched and protested in Moscow a few days ago.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/24/ukraine-crisis-hundreds-detained-in-anti-war-protests-in-russia

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Yeah, that video provides great context for Russia's situation, and the history behind said situation. Thanks for posting it.

In other news...

Turkey, overseeing passage to Black Sea, calls Russian invasion 'war' | Reuters

Previously Turkey stated that they could not block passage of Russian ships through the Dardanelled and Bosphorus. This might indicate a change in action.

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2 hours ago, Excellen Browning said:

This isn't good

I don't really see any nukes being launched. I doubt Biden will launch one for the sake of Ukraine, and Russia isn't likely to launch one unless provoked, especially with the knowledge of retaliation in play...but I really didn't think Putin would go for Kiev, which has shaken my confidence in anything. Makes me wonder how the US would be reacting now if Trump were still in office though.

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1 hour ago, Jotari said:

Makes me wonder how the US would be reacting now if Trump were still in office though.

Well, no American is cheering louder about what's happening than mister Trump so I guess he'd abandon Ukraine at the first opportunity. Perhaps also in part to punish him for not making up dirt about his personal rivals. 

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7 minutes ago, Etrurian emperor said:

Well, no American is cheering louder about what's happening than mister Trump so I guess he'd abandon Ukraine at the first opportunity. Perhaps also in part to punish him for not making up dirt about his personal rivals. 

I could see him wanting to out hardman Putin as well though. And I don't think what Trump does in this time can really be an indication of what he'd do if events are different...Hell I'm not sure you can say what Trump did last week can be counted on as an indication of what he's about to do.

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3 hours ago, Excellen Browning said:

This isn't good

I did some reading.  First of all, pretty sure that "Defcon" user is just pure bull, AFAIK nations don't reveal DEFCON (or equivalent) levels to the public (not unless they felt like doing so, which they'd do through regular public channels, not through a special little website that doesn't even capitalize the damn letters of DEFCON properly).  There's speculation about the levels - it has been suspected that the US armed forces reached DEFCON 2 during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and beyond that at most it's probably only ever reached DEFCON 3 - but nobody knows for sure.

The most credible thing I can find amidst the mess of the internet is this tweet about Russia's defense readiness system, spoilered below:

Spoiler

 

It seems in line with other information I've seen, being that Russia has four readiness levels and they go from least dangerous at 1 to most dangerous at 4.  In the video released of him giving orders, he specifically said to put the nuclear deterrence forces on high alert.  He didn't say to deploy nuclear weapons, but rather to ready a deterrence force.  Granted, nuclear deterrence has traditionally involved using the threat of more nukes to dissuade a foe from using them (MAD), but it can involve other things as well (radars, anti-missile systems, personnel, special electronics equipment, etc.), and does not necessarily signal that he's just going to nuke the world if he doesn't get what he wants.

I think this paints a picture that Russia believes there is a possibility of a legitimate threat to their sovereignty by NATO.  Generally what I've come to understand with Russia's military doctrine is any form of militaristic operation by NATO that occurs along the Russian border could potentially be seen as a threat to Russia's sovereignty.  The reason NATO has maintained a position of no direct interference in Ukraine - as in, no putting their boots on the ground in Ukraine, so-to-speak - is because that would give Russia ample cause to get ready for a nuclear war.

The reality I perceive here is Russia feels slightly attacked and threatened.  Not in a major way, despite what Putin's tough and biting rhetoric might portray, but he certainly seems to think NATO is escalating the conflict even though Putin himself was the one that started it.  And his position makes sense because practically nobody was sending Ukraine much of anything until the people of Ukraine themselves proved they're tough enough to withhold the Russian onslaught by preventing the Russian military from achieving their main objectives within a timely manner (or at all, for that matter, lmao) - there sort of has been a kind of escalation on NATO's part, but that's only because Putin's attack was so abhorrent in its lack of proper justification and so sudden and deliberate, and there's no indication that NATO will escalate things any further.

It should also be noted that while leaders are calling Putin's readying of the deterrence forces a "needless escalation", none of them are in a panic.  Part of that of course is the burden of responsibility politicians already have reducing their propensity for intensity, but also because they believe it's just a pattern of Putin's behavior, as well the general strategy of Russian leaders to "escalate to de-escalate" should a dangerous situation come to a head.  So really, it's just bluffing to try to get his way.  Perhaps Putin still will have the audacity to demand some form of payment from Ukraine, or perhaps he simply wants to prevent Russia from being punished too severely for their transgression... it's hard to say for sure, but all and all, I think nuclear warfare is still a long shot from here.

 

With all this said, Godspeed to those fighting against the Kremlin's tyrannical ambitions, may we all find a swift and peaceful end to this cursed war, and I hope to all that is divine, holy, and reasonable that we all don't get atomized over some stupid territorial conflict instigated by some dickhead tyrant who was mad that he didn't get everything handed to him on a silver platter because he kicked and screamed loudly.

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7 hours ago, Acacia Sgt said:

"Allegedly" indeed.

Maybe they'll soon just stop pretenses and we might see a "support for annexation to Russia" referendum next...

That actually wouldn't be a terrible thing. Belarus's regime is markedly more authoritarian than Russia's. Russia is, of course, no spring chicken in the freedom and democracy fields, but it is better than Belarus.

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Chalk up another mark on the list of recent Russian blunders:

Russian state news accidentally publishes article saying Russia has defeated Ukraine and restored its 'historical borders' (msn.com)

In actual news, the first round of ceasefire talks has been largely unsuccessful and Ukraine is starting down the road to EU membership.

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That map seems to actually show an invasion path from Odessa... into Moldova/Transnistria.

Edited by Acacia Sgt
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