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So, uh, the Ukraine-Russian situation


Jotari
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Not an event in Ukraine proper, but Azerbaijan is taking advantage that Russia is sort-of distracted:

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-702402
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/03/26/Russia-says-Azerbaijan-enters-Russian-peacekeepers-zone-in-Nagorno-Karabakh

Since the conflict began Armenia has expressed worry that Azerbaijan might try something big again:

https://en.armradio.am/2022/03/25/armenia-applies-to-echr-and-un-court-requesting-an-interim-measure-against-azerbaijan/

A ramification of the consequences of the current war to other areas.

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1 hour ago, Armchair General said:

Well, there isn't much of anything new going on, outside of the fact that the Ukrainians have accepted an legion of foreign volunteers and that the Russians might be losing their momentum with their invasion, at this point.

 

Only thing that's notable, today, is that the Russians have lost their sixth general in this war and a seventh official might have been died with him

What are those Russian generals even doing over there? I was under the assumption that being a general was primarily a desk job these days and didn't involve actual combat on the front lines. 

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3 hours ago, Etrurian emperor said:

What are those Russian generals even doing over there? I was under the assumption that being a general was primarily a desk job these days and didn't involve actual combat on the front lines. 

I think it's related to the lack of having an reliable long-range communications network. Plus, one of them were killed by airstrikes on what could be considered an field headquarters or an forward base. And there's also that incident where the deputy commander of the Russia's Baltic Fleet was killed aboard his ship.

But at any rate, it looks like the Ukrainian military is trying to make an point by killing them off.

 

Edited by Armchair General
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22 hours ago, Etrurian emperor said:

What are those Russian generals even doing over there? I was under the assumption that being a general was primarily a desk job these days and didn't involve actual combat on the front lines. 

19 hours ago, Armchair General said:

I think it's related to the lack of having an reliable long-range communications network. Plus, one of them were killed by airstrikes on what could be considered an field headquarters or an forward base. And there's also that incident where the deputy commander of the Russia's Baltic Fleet was killed aboard his ship.

At least according to Forein Policy, the Russian military practically needs to have their generals hold their hands on the front lines. Their military personnel also are not trained to take initiatives and rely heavily on commands from above.

I think it is also due to the use of conscripts and them being confused about being thrown into an actual freaking war when they just thought it would be a simple "operation".

22 hours ago, Acacia Sgt said:

A ramification of the consequences of the current war to other areas.

I am a little surprised Georgia has not done anything right now to open up a second front to take back their territory.

I am not sure how Belarussians feel about their government and leader, but now is also a good time to resume protests against Lukashenko. A good way to overthrow governments is to overwhelm them with multiple crises at once.

Edited by XRay
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4 minutes ago, XRay said:

I am a little surprised Georgia has not done anything right now to open up a second front to take back their territory.

I am not sure how Belarussians feel about their government and leader, but now is also a good time to resume protests against Lukashenko. A good way to overthrow governments is to overwhelm them with multiple crises at once.

From my understanding, Georgia hasn't recovered enough from the 2008 war to try to do something. Not to mention, it might still not dare to try anything. Which is probably instead why South Ossetia feels it can afford to send troops to help Russia:

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/03/26/Georgia-s-breakaway-region-sends-troops-to-Ukraine-

Lukashenko isn't popular. There was already a coup attempt last year, which Russia helped stop. This is also why he doesn't actually join Putin in the war, because if he sends the few loyal troops he has, the rest will just try to coup him again. There's already Belarussian volunteers fighting for Ukraine. The military has already stated they don't want to join the war on Russia's side. His hands are tied on the matter. So who knows what may happen.

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2 hours ago, XRay said:

At least according to Forein Policy, the Russian military practically needs to have their generals hold their hands on the front lines. Their military personnel also are not trained to take initiatives and rely heavily on commands from above.

Yeah, that's essentially an death sentence for an modern army. I'd see if it was mostly field-grade officers being targeted; but it kind of makes you wonder how they're actually training their younger officers, though.

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Well, the Ukrainians captured at least three Russian tanks in the process of retaking an village near Kyiv.

 

Apparently, they've managed to salvage an little bit over an regiment's worth of tanks, going by this.

 

 

Edited by Armchair General
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So this could possibly be a thing:

If true, that's... yikes. Though they did kept garrisons at Chornobyl, so this was perhaps going to happen sooner or later. But to actually have them at the Exclusion Zone or around? That still sounds... hmm...

Edited by Acacia Sgt
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4 minutes ago, Acacia Sgt said:

So this could possibly be a thing:

If true, that's... yikes. Though they did kept garrisons at Chornobyl, so this was perhaps going to happen sooner or later. But to actually have them at the Exclusion Zone or around? That still sounds... hmm...

That is kind of weird. Chernobyl is pretty safe aside from a domed area near the centre that no one has any reason to go into anyway.

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59 minutes ago, Jotari said:

That is kind of weird. Chernobyl is pretty safe aside from a domed area near the centre that no one has any reason to go into anyway.

Well, according to this:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/unprotected-russian-soldiers-disturbed-radioactive-dust-chernobyls-red-forest-2022-03-28/

It seems the soldiers were passing through the still-dangerous-but-not-cordoned-off areas without the protective gear. The Red Forest is still very dangerous to be at. Kicking up all that radioactive dust did no favors either.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Forest

Which... well, considering the Russian performance so far, it's not really that out of plausibility.

Apparently they also dug trenches. So yeah, the topsoil was disturbed, and they got in contact with contaminated soil and inhaled contaminated dust.

Edited by Acacia Sgt
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On 3/26/2022 at 8:00 PM, Acacia Sgt said:

Not an event in Ukraine proper, but Azerbaijan is taking advantage that Russia is sort-of distracted:

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-702402
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/03/26/Russia-says-Azerbaijan-enters-Russian-peacekeepers-zone-in-Nagorno-Karabakh

Since the conflict began Armenia has expressed worry that Azerbaijan might try something big again:

https://en.armradio.am/2022/03/25/armenia-applies-to-echr-and-un-court-requesting-an-interim-measure-against-azerbaijan/

A ramification of the consequences of the current war to other areas.

Russia did not help Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh war, despite Armenia being in the CSTO and technically being obligated to. Russia currently being busy in Ukraine changes nothing for Armenia in any practical way

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9 hours ago, Excellen Browning said:

Russia did not help Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh war, despite Armenia being in the CSTO and technically being obligated to. Russia currently being busy in Ukraine changes nothing for Armenia in any practical way

True. But in the context of the Russian-Ukraine War, this is the first (?) case of another country actually trying to do something during it. Even if for Azerbaijan this is just a continuation of 2020.

---

EDIT: Though I typed "do something" I probably should've meant taking direct action, since there is Japan bringing again the whole topic of the Kurils. On that subject:

 

Last time they were only talking about the southern islands... now it looks they're going for the entire island chain.

---

An update on the situation at Chornobyl:

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-38-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine

Seems the thing about Russian soldiers with Acute Radiation Sickness remains unconfirmed. Still, they are retreating from the area nonetheless as part of the withdrawal.

Edited by Acacia Sgt
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https://www.axios.com/photos-russia-dead-ukrainian-civilians-bucha-ac95a4c9-3533-423c-b609-4d1e9a1f81e4.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/03/they-were-all-shot-russia-accused-of-war-crimes-as-bucha-reveals-horror-of-invasion
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-retreat-leaves-trail-slain-civilians-town-near-kyiv-2022-04-02/

Super fucked up, but we are seeing evidence of massacre of civilians in Bucha.

I will not link them here, but I think people should Google and look at the raw pictures and videos of the atrocities. It can potentially be grotesque, nauseus, upsetting, uncomfortable, and unpleasant. However, I think this needs to be seared into people's minds. This is the least we can do to internalize Ukraine's pain and get a better understanding of the gravity of the situation. As Ukraine regains more territorial control, there is a possibility that more massacres like this will be discovered. While the quantitative scale is unlikely to match the Holocaust, the sheer brutality and cruelty seems like it might be on par. Hopefully, Bucha is an outlier, but we should steel ourselves for the worst.

On the US side, sanctions should be absolute; we cannot let short term thinking blind our long term strategic goals, and if we must apply sanctions to India and other US partners for continued trade with Russia, we must do so. As for Europeans, I understand that they are heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports, but their gas supply is tainted with Ukrainian blood, but they should find ways to diversify their energy sources as soon as possible, if not going completely green (and this applies to the US too, we need to kill our addiction to fossil fuel).

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16 hours ago, XRay said:

https://www.axios.com/photos-russia-dead-ukrainian-civilians-bucha-ac95a4c9-3533-423c-b609-4d1e9a1f81e4.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/03/they-were-all-shot-russia-accused-of-war-crimes-as-bucha-reveals-horror-of-invasion
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-retreat-leaves-trail-slain-civilians-town-near-kyiv-2022-04-02/

Super fucked up, but we are seeing evidence of massacre of civilians in Bucha.

I will not link them here, but I think people should Google and look at the raw pictures and videos of the atrocities. It can potentially be grotesque, nauseus, upsetting, uncomfortable, and unpleasant. However, I think this needs to be seared into people's minds. This is the least we can do to internalize Ukraine's pain and get a better understanding of the gravity of the situation. As Ukraine regains more territorial control, there is a possibility that more massacres like this will be discovered. While the quantitative scale is unlikely to match the Holocaust, the sheer brutality and cruelty seems like it might be on par. Hopefully, Bucha is an outlier, but we should steel ourselves for the worst.

On the US side, sanctions should be absolute; we cannot let short term thinking blind our long term strategic goals, and if we must apply sanctions to India and other US partners for continued trade with Russia, we must do so. As for Europeans, I understand that they are heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports, but their gas supply is tainted with Ukrainian blood, but they should find ways to diversify their energy sources as soon as possible, if not going completely green (and this applies to the US too, we need to kill our addiction to fossil fuel).

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US imported up to 100,000 barrels of Russian crude per day from March 19 to 25, 2022.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/wpsrall.pdf

 

Russia’s own food and agricultural exports are not under sanction by the U.S. or allies and partners.

https://www.state.gov/remarks-by-deputy-secretary-of-state-wendy-sherman-at-a-un-security-council-meeting-on-the-humanitarian-impact-of-russias-war-against-ukraine/

 

Meanwhile, Viktor Orban was elected again.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/03/europe/hungary-election-results-viktor-orban-intl/index.html

Edited by Tetragrammaton
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4 hours ago, Tetragrammaton said:

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US imported up to 100,000 barrels of Russian crude per day from March 19 to 25, 2022.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/wpsrall.pdf

Hm... That is strange. I hope a news organization can pick up on this more and explain.

The only explanation I can think of is that those oil have already been purchased and were enroute to the US.

4 hours ago, Tetragrammaton said:

We are the largest exporters of food. While we might not be able to replace wheat supplies in the short term, we might be able to just send food in general to the Middle East to help keep prices down.

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Kinda creepy but the Russian state media has published an article named ''what to do with Ukraine'' where they seem to inform the Russian public of future attempts to ethnically cleanse and destroy the Ukrainian state once they've conquered it. It also has the dubious statement that in this day and age ''nazism'' is ''elusive'' and can manifest itself in things such as wanting independence from Russia. That article literally state that the idea of Ukranian nationhood is in itself a sign of ''Nazi'' ideology. 

I won't list to the article outright but this journalist's twitter account has the highlights and if you're that eager to watch the freakshow then you can find a full link somewhere in her tweets. 

 

 

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23 hours ago, XRay said:

On the US side, sanctions should be absolute; we cannot let short term thinking blind our long term strategic goals, and if we must apply sanctions to India and other US partners for continued trade with Russia, we must do so.

You have an point, but the main problem is that everyone has became too dependent on international trade to the point where isolationism is no longer an short-term option.

 

2 hours ago, Etrurian emperor said:

Kinda creepy but the Russian state media has published an article named ''what to do with Ukraine'' where they seem to inform the Russian public of future attempts to ethnically cleanse and destroy the Ukrainian state once they've conquered it.

If this is actually endorsed by Putin, we might be looking at an prelude for the next world war if he does this to another country.

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