So, uh, the Ukraine-Russian situation

[Punished Dayni]

And now we have official Russian military movement into Ukraine, with bombing and Ukranian resistance.

The situation has become an invasion. We'll see before long how many others go into it, though the room doesn't exactly read like there's going to be more than our current players.

[Etrurian emperor]

Well that's concerning. Not just the invasion but Putin's claim that his aim isn't just to secure the separatist regions but just flat out destroy Ukraine. 

[Jotari]

He says he won't occupy Ukraine, but come on, what else is he going to do >.> Man I hope this doesn't escalate, but I can't see how it won't from here.

[Etrurian emperor]

Not to be alarmist but the chances for WW3 will increase dramatically now. Not only does Russia feel emboldened but now the US has every reason to fear losing their status. Remember how Russia's fear of no longer being a great power was one of the factors in WW1? That they simply couldn't afford another course even if they knew it was wrong.

China will also be emboldened to take Taiwan now. They have every reason to assume the rest of the world will roll over and let them have it. But after the Middle East and Ukraine the US cannot afford another defeat if they wish to preserve their status so even if they desperately want to abandoning Taiwan they simply cannot afford to do so anymore.

[Armchair General]

1 hour ago, Etrurian emperor said:

Not to be alarmist but the chances for WW3 will increase dramatically now. Not only does Russia feel emboldened but now the US has every reason to fear losing their status. Remember how Russia's fear of no longer being a great power was one of the factors in WW1? That they simply couldn't afford another course even if they knew it was wrong.

China will also be emboldened to take Taiwan now. They have every reason to assume the rest of the world will roll over and let them have it. But after the Middle East and Ukraine the US cannot afford another defeat if they wish to preserve their status so even if they desperately want to abandoning Taiwan they simply cannot afford to do so anymore.

As of now, it'll probably be another situation with Kuwait, at this point. Hopefully, the Ukrainians were ready for this, considering how Putin was trying to probe them an while ago. But as far as actually sending foreign aid towards Ukraine, it'll be kind of delayed until Putin keeps pushing his luck, considering how the only thing Biden did was impose an series of stronger economic sanctions against Russia.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Armchair General

[Acacia Sgt]

Seems they're aiming for a swift decapitation strike. Russian forces just took Chernobyl and Pripyat, likely intending to just head straight to Kyiv.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/24/ukraine-russia-chernobyl-risk/

That said... yikes, not a pleasant thought, considering it's, well, Chernobyl.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Acacia Sgt

[Interdimensional Observer]

2 hours ago, Etrurian emperor said:

Not to be alarmist but the chances for WW3 will increase dramatically now.

But MAD! Surely in the case of Russia, the chance of losing millions of Russians to nuclear weapons will outweigh the costs of gaining 7 million in the Baltic states... right?😨

...Humanity is destined for its own self-destruction. There won't be anyone left to celebrate the end of WWII at this rate. -So much for Pakistan and India being the culprits of WWIII.

[Acacia Sgt]

Well, Putin has made threats for NATO to not interfere, precisely invoking MAD.

[Interdimensional Observer]

16 minutes ago, Acacia Sgt said:

Well, Putin has made threats for NATO to not interfere, precisely invoking MAD.

True, it does work both ways. NATO quite simply has its member states value the lives of its hundreds of millions of members over that of the Ukrainians. It's sad, but understandable. Whether MAD has worked more for or against the "free world order" in total, I do not claim to know. But it sure is awful to see it favor the blatant tyrants in this instance presently unfolding. 

[Acacia Sgt]

4 minutes ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

True, it does work both ways. NATO quite simply has its member states value the lives of its hundreds of millions of members over that of the Ukrainians. It's sad, but understandable. Whether MAD has worked more for or against the "free world order" in total, I do not claim to know. But it sure is awful to see it favor the blatant tyrants in this instance presently unfolding. 

It's pretty much the crux of the matter. Ukraine was trying to get into NATO in the past years, so of course Russia had to act now. The same happened to Georgia back in 2008. Since one of the clauses of NATO membership is not having territorial disputes, Russia quickly went and started supporting rebels in Georgia, and outright attacked and invaded as well, effectively blocking Georgia from NATO-admission. Now the same thing is happening with Ukraine. First with Crimea, and now in the Donbass.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Acacia Sgt

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

On 2/22/2022 at 12:43 PM, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

I doubt Putin will launch a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, beyond the two breakaway "republics". We've seen this before: in Abkhazia, in South Ossetia, and in Crimea. Putin's too smart to try to overtake a whole nation - rather, he'll use salami tactics to eat up the areas that are content to exist as a sattelite of Moscow. Frankly, the Ukrainian government's failure to reassert its control in the Donbass region made this just a matter of time. Not that it excuses what Putin's doing, of course.

Wow, what a shit take. The person who thought this should be totally embarrassed.

It means little at this point, but: solidarity with the people of Ukraine, and the continued existence of a Ukrainian nation.

[Armchair General]

32 minutes ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

It means little at this point, but: solidarity with the people of Ukraine, and the continued existence of a Ukrainian nation.

For what it's worth, the Ukrainians aren't going down quietly; considering how the Russians have lost a few tanks and helicopters.

[Jotari]

12 hours ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

But MAD! Surely in the case of Russia, the chance of losing millions of Russians to nuclear weapons will outweigh the costs of gaining 7 million in the Baltic states... right?😨

...Humanity is destined for its own self-destruction. There won't be anyone left to celebrate the end of WWII at this rate. -So much for Pakistan and India being the culprits of WWIII.

That's only if someone has the guts to launch a nuke. Why subject your own countries to the horrors of nuclear fires to defend the Baltics. Funny enough, Uktraine actually had nukes once. But they got rid of them on Russia's assurance to respect their borders.

11 hours ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

Wow, what a shit take. The person who thought this should be totally embarrassed.

It means little at this point, but: solidarity with the people of Ukraine, and the continued existence of a Ukrainian nation.

I was of the exact same opinion. Now this brash act of aggression is really throwing my hippieqsue beliefs into question. I really don't knwo what the best course of action for anyone is.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Jotari

[XRay]

Hm... Depending on how bad the situation gets, if morale is still high after Kyiv capitulates, Ukraine can still "mobilize" the entire population to fight for survival. No time for boot camp at this point, and people can just grab a gun or knife and go. Quantity is a quality all its own, so unless Russia mobilizes its entire population, Ukraine should enjoy numerical superiority on their home turf. If the world sees women and children fighting on the front lines, it would paint an extremely bad picture of Putin and hopefully make it extremely demoralizing for the invading Russian troops. If manpower is an issue, there is also the option of recruiting international volunteers and foreign fighters to help reinforce the resistance, similar to how terrorist organizations like ISIS have done in the Middle East, except in this case, I highly doubt the West and NATO will actively stem the flow of these volunteers, so in theory, it should be easier for volunteers to get to Ukraine and fight.

I think this is controvisial, but with the survival of the people, culture, and nation at stake fighting a defensive war, there is no point in observing the rules of war. I would not be outraged if Ukraine uses chemical weapons to defend itself, and I also would not complain either if Russian embassies throughout the world get bombed.

[Excellen Browning]

edit: if anyone's going to be using chemical weapons, it'll be the russians

EDIT 2: I guess I shouldn't be calling you names but this is probably the most smooth brained take I've seen these last two days.

For one, Ukraine does not have chemical weapons. Russia does. Second, even if the Ukrainians were to use chemical weapons, which again they don't have, Russia will retaliate. Russia didn't have any objections to chemical weapons use against civilian targets in Syria, it will not decide not to gas Kyiv or some other major Ukrainian city.

EDIT 3: recent news:

"Putin appealed to the Ukrainian army: “Take power into your own hands, it looks like it will be easier for us to negotiate with you than with this gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis who settled in Kiev and took the entire Ukrainian people hostage.”

Edited February 25, 2022 by Excellen Browning

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

6 hours ago, Jotari said:

I was of the exact same opinion. Now this brash act of aggression is really throwing my hippieqsue beliefs into question. I really don't knwo what the best course of action for anyone is.

I feel the same way. It's easy to say that Ukrainians should "fight to the very end" from my big comfy bed. I'm hardly in a position to criticize any Ukrainian who does what they have to, to save their own lives or their family's lives.

It is heartening to see many Russians protesting Putin's war effort, although of course that's undercut by the brutality dealt to said protesters. I couldn't blame anyone for keeping quiet in an authoritarian state.

As for the U.S. and other "Western" nations, I think the sanctions and cutting off of business deals is a good step. Anyone who is in a position where they're doing business with Russia should stop it as soon as possible. It sucks for the average citizenry, no doubt, but ultimately this is the wages for Putin's warmongering. Hopefully the people of Russia force him out, whether by the ballot or the bullet, although I don't see it as likely.

58 minutes ago, Excellen Browning said:

Putin appealed to the Ukrainian army: “Take power into your own hands, it looks like it will be easier for us to negotiate with you than with this gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis who settled in Kiev and took the entire Ukrainian people hostage.”

It's astonishing what leaps of logic the aggressor will take to represent themselves as a savior.

[Etrurian emperor]

2 hours ago, Excellen Browning said:

Putin appealed to the Ukrainian army: “Take power into your own hands, it looks like it will be easier for us to negotiate with you than with this gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis who settled in Kiev and took the entire Ukrainian people hostage.”

I wonder if Putin genuinely believes this or if this is just framing meant for his domestic audience. Putin's general reputation implies the second option, but in his blood and soil speech Vladmir's mental faculties seemed...lacking. As if he's not entirely thinking clearly and is just stewing in his resentment. 

I also wonder if his offer to the Ukranian army is a sign of strength or weakness. He could be doing so well he expects the army to fold and turn over to his side, or he's annoyed at how slow his invasion is proceeding and needs to speed things up. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by Etrurian emperor

[Jotari]

2 hours ago, Excellen Browning said:

"Putin appealed to the Ukrainian army: “Take power into your own hands, it looks like it will be easier for us to negotiate with you than with this gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis who settled in Kiev and took the entire Ukrainian people hostage.”

 

1 hour ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

It's astonishing what leaps of logic the aggressor will take to represent themselves as a savior.

It's ridiculous how much international diplomacy has become similar to stupid internet arguments.

[Etrurian emperor]

So the big guns have finally been unleashed by the west. Russia....can no longer join Euro-vision. 

 

[Armchair General]

Wasn't Biden supposed to give an another announcement about this, yesterday?

[XRay]

5 hours ago, Excellen Browning said:

For one, Ukraine does not have chemical weapons. Russia does. Second, even if the Ukrainians were to use chemical weapons, which again they don't have, Russia will retaliate. Russia didn't have any objections to chemical weapons use against civilian targets in Syria, it will not decide not to gas Kyiv or some other major Ukrainian city.

NATO could secretly give Ukraine chemical weapons. Russia could absolutely retaliate with chemical weapons of their own, but it will look bad on them since they are the aggressor. If a nation is fighting for survival, I do not think anyone is going to complain about them doing whatever it takes to survive and repel invaders.

4 hours ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

I feel the same way. It's easy to say that Ukrainians should "fight to the very end" from my big comfy bed. I'm hardly in a position to criticize any Ukrainian who does what they have to, to save their own lives or their family's lives.

I do not expect everyone to fight to the last man standing à la Japan in WWII, and we should give any Ukrainian who wants to leave asylum and/or citizenship if necessary. There is no cowardice in fleeing, as there is always a chance to fight another day.

But if many people do fight to the last man and drag the war on, it will make it extremely difficult for Putin and Russia to swallow. Unlike Iraq where it is half a world away for the United States, an insurgency right next door with the potential to spread to Russia itself would be much harder to contain, especially if that insurgency has covert NATO and western support.

4 hours ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

As for the U.S. and other "Western" nations, I think the sanctions and cutting off of business deals is a good step. Anyone who is in a position where they're doing business with Russia should stop it as soon as possible. It sucks for the average citizenry, no doubt, but ultimately this is the wages for Putin's warmongering. Hopefully the people of Russia force him out, whether by the ballot or the bullet, although I don't see it as likely.

Economic sanctions are not going to be enough, but I agree it is a good step. Putin only respects military might, so what we could do is to close the Baltic and Black Sea and bottle up the Russian fleet.

We could also raise tensions by rescinding military treaties, circle Russia with nuclear bombers 24/7, and hope Putin bites the bait and commits to an arms race he cannot afford.

2 hours ago, Etrurian emperor said:

So the big guns have finally been unleashed by the west. Russia....can no longer join Euro-vision. 

 

I am glad Eurovision got more guts than the IOC.

[Armchair General]

2 hours ago, XRay said:

NATO could secretly give Ukraine chemical weapons. Russia could absolutely retaliate with chemical weapons of their own, but it will look bad on them since they are the aggressor. If a nation is fighting for survival, I do not think anyone is going to complain about them doing whatever it takes to survive and repel invaders.

This could work, provided that the Russians would actually be the first ones to use chemical weapons on the Ukrainians. But as it is, we're mostly looking at conventional warfare and it's kind of hard to justify using scorched earth tactics on your own country.

[Jotari]

Let's not normalize using gas weapons again. That is not a road that leads to something positive.

[Armchair General]

14 minutes ago, Jotari said:

Let's not normalize using gas weapons again. That is not a road that leads to something positive.

You know, there's an WW1 battlefield in France where hardly anything grows and it's been cordoned off from the public. And considering how chemical weapons were engineered to be "more effective" as the decades went by, it's hard to say what the environmental effects of modern chemical warfare would be.

[Zapp Branniglenn]

Furthermore I doubt the Geneva Convention-abiding NATO has a stockpile of chemical weapons ready to borrow.