So, uh, the Ukraine-Russian situation

[Etrurian emperor]

A post with a bit more brevity but its shocking just how weird our world can be. The leader of a besieged country who loudly requests to join the EU is also the same man who played a fictional president also wanting to join the EU, and also getting a rather tepid reaction there. 

 

The goofy guy here really is the same guy who now has to dodge Russian assassins while trying to prevent his country from getting toppled by them.  Apparently there's also a scene in that show where actor Zelensky shouts that they need to stop Putin. 

 

Edited March 2, 2022 by Etrurian emperor

[Jotari]

Has anyone here watched Servant of the People? I actually did start watching it around this time last year, the whole thing is on youtube. But about four or five episodes in they just arbitrarily stopped subtitling the episode literally half way through the video, which was pretty demotivating. I didn't really want to get invested in a show which might just drop it's subtitling at any random point. I'm thinking of giving it another shot though given the recent events. Hopefully it's just that one episode someone got lazy with. What I saw of it was good though.

Edited March 2, 2022 by Jotari

[Etrurian emperor]

1 hour ago, Jotari said:

Has anyone here watched Servant of the People? I actually did start watching it around this time last year, the whole thing is on youtube. But about four or five episodes in they just arbitrarily stopped subtitling the episode literally half way through the video, which was pretty demotivating. I didn't really want to get invested in a show which might just drop it's subtitling at any random point. I'm thinking of giving it another shot though given the recent events. Hopefully it's just that one episode someone got lazy with. What I saw of it was good though.

I'd be surprised if the series doesn't get a sudden spike of interest in the west since Zelensky's rapidly acquiring a sort of hero status. Complete with cringe inducing ''captain Ukraine'' memes. 

[Sunwoo]

20 hours ago, Acacia Sgt said:

That map seems to actually show an invasion path from Odessa... into Moldova/Transnistria.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Putin eventually made Moldova the next target of his attacks had he succeeded with Ukraine. This is something we've seen before in history, people like this don't just stop, because it's never enough for them.

[X-Naut]

Volunteers cross Polish border into Ukraine to fight Russian forces (msn.com)

On top of the humanitarian aid and weapons, Ukraine is starting to receive more manpower to fend off the Russians.

[Acacia Sgt]

I guess this is another way to stick it to Russia:

Though as it is, it's unlikely they'd do more than that. So no "special military operations" on the Kurils any time soon... I hope...

[Jotari]

10 minutes ago, Acacia Sgt said:

I guess this is another way to stick it to Russia:

Though as it is, it's unlikely they'd do more than that. So no "special military operations" on the Kurils any time soon... I hope...

It might actually be the perfect time for it. I doubt Russia would be all that invested in defending them while they have Ukraine going on. Course it's also been like 80 years so I doubt Japan really wants them either at this point.

[Acacia Sgt]

3 minutes ago, Jotari said:

It might actually be the perfect time for it. I doubt Russia would be all that invested in defending them while they have Ukraine going on. Course it's also been like 80 years so I doubt Japan really wants them either at this point.

Oh, don't underestimate how long some good old revanchism can last. Just look at the Alsace-Lorraine.

Sure, Russia may not be invested to send troops... but what about 'them nukes? Only needs to threaten to use them if Japan actually were to try something...

Edited March 7, 2022 by Acacia Sgt

[Jotari]

1 minute ago, Acacia Sgt said:

Oh, don't underestimate how long some good old revanchism can last. Just look at the Alsace-Lorraine.

Sure, Russia may not be invested to send troops... but what about 'them nukes? Only needs to threaten to use them if Japan actually were to try something...

If Russia were willing to nuke Japan over the Kurill Isles then they would absolutely be willing to nuke Ukraine in a war they are actively fighting right now. Thus far they have not shown that willingness (and by anything that is holy is this desolate universe in which we live, let's hope it stays that way).

[Acacia Sgt]

Just now, Jotari said:

If Russia were willing to nuke Japan over the Kurill Isles then they would absolutely be willing to nuke Ukraine in a war they are actively fighting right now. Thus far they have not shown that willingness (and by anything that is holy is this desolate universe in which we live, let's hope it stays that way).

It would boil down if Japan dare to call on any possible nuclear bluff.

Even if not, the situations are much different. Russia has interests to keep Ukraine as untouched as possible, specially when you factor just how much food is produced there. Not to mention, it's right next door to the core region of Russia, so any fallout is bound to affect them directly. Meanwhile, Japan is basically off the eastern frontier, and Russia doesn't have much plans on the Japanese land itself. So they'd be more willing to actually launch a nuke against Japan than Ukraine... so it'd ultimately boil down if they are willing to escalate that far.

[Jotari]

2 minutes ago, Acacia Sgt said:

It would boil down if Japan dare to call on any possible nuclear bluff.

Even if not, the situations are much different. Russia has interests to keep Ukraine as untouched as possible, specially when you factor just how much food is produced there. Not to mention, it's right next door to the core region of Russia, so any fallout is bound to affect them directly. Meanwhile, Japan is basically off the eastern frontier, and Russia doesn't have much plans on the Japanese land itself. So they'd be more willing to actually launch a nuke against Japan than Ukraine... so it'd ultimately boil down if they are willing to escalate that far.

Nukes are not launched willy nilly. A lot of those same sentiments stand for Syria too yet Russia never launched a nuke there. And they have proven they are willing to absolutely eviscerate even their own territory during the Chechnyan revolt. The very fact that the islands are so far from the core of Russia is why it's unlikely they'd burn what precious few bridges they have by nuking Japan (of all places) over a bunch of fishing villages. Now that being said if I were in charge of Japan I absolutely wouldn't do it. As there is a small but vocal nationalism movement in Japan that really wants to remilitarize in large scale and the success of such a venture could end up being more poisonous to Japan than actual failure would be.

[Interdimensional Observer]

34 minutes ago, Jotari said:

Course it's also been like 80 years so I doubt Japan really wants them either at this point.

Not to mention Japan has the Senkaku/Diaoyu/Tiaoyutai Islands dispute with China and Taiwan. Japan has to pick their territorial dispute priorities.

[Acacia Sgt]

26 minutes ago, Jotari said:

Nukes are not launched willy nilly. A lot of those same sentiments stand for Syria too yet Russia never launched a nuke there. And they have proven they are willing to absolutely eviscerate even their own territory during the Chechnyan revolt. The very fact that the islands are so far from the core of Russia is why it's unlikely they'd burn what precious few bridges they have by nuking Japan (of all places) over a bunch of fishing villages. Now that being said if I were in charge of Japan I absolutely wouldn't do it. As there is a small but vocal nationalism movement in Japan that really wants to remilitarize in large scale and the success of such a venture could end up being more poisonous to Japan than actual failure would be.

Well, I'd guess it's since Syria is allied with Russia, so even if it's rebel-held, it'd be in bad faith to nuke an ally's territory. No such condition with Japan. And they didn't resort to nukes on the Chechnyan conflict. So yes, no fear to eviscerate, but there's still a line to not cross, specially since, with the intent to reannex Chechnya, it'd be nuking their own land.

Ultimately, it wouldn't be about actually launching nukes, it's again the threat of use to cause a deterrent, and unlike other situations, they wouldn't have as many qualms with Japan. That's the point they'd threaten with to deter conflict.

Edited March 7, 2022 by Acacia Sgt

[XRay]

I think Japan is under America's nuclear umbrella though, while Ukraine is not, so if Russia nukes Japan, we will retaliate. Realistically, I highly doubt Japan is going to actually do anything about it, and I think they are just saying it to make fun of Russia.

For something that hits a bit closer to home, gas prices are rising a lot, and the cheapest gas stations in my city is selling it for well over $4.60 per gallon, and my friend said he saw prices around $6.00 per gallon. Despite owning a car and driving a lot, I think I am in the odd ball minority who is happy that gas prices are high, and I actually want gas prices to go even higher to be as high as possible. I want gas prices to be so high to the point that it becomes unaffordable, so it pushes people to consider pressuring governments to invest more into public transportation (or at least electric vehicles). The added benefit of being less reliant on fossil fuels also means we are taking away wealth and power from Russia too, since a lot of their government revenue comes from fossil fuel.

I hope Europe is prepared to reduce, and ideally completely shut down, the trade in fossil fuels with Russia. While I am personally okay with high gas prices though, most of my fellow Americans probably are not, which is a shame in my opinion.

[Jotari]

1 hour ago, XRay said:

I think Japan is under America's nuclear umbrella though, while Ukraine is not, so if Russia nukes Japan, we will retaliate. Realistically, I highly doubt Japan is going to actually do anything about it, and I think they are just saying it to make fun of Russia.

For something that hits a bit closer to home, gas prices are rising a lot, and the cheapest gas stations in my city is selling it for well over $4.60 per gallon, and my friend said he saw prices around $6.00 per gallon. Despite owning a car and driving a lot, I think I am in the odd ball minority who is happy that gas prices are high, and I actually want gas prices to go even higher to be as high as possible. I want gas prices to be so high to the point that it becomes unaffordable, so it pushes people to consider pressuring governments to invest more into public transportation (or at least electric vehicles). The added benefit of being less reliant on fossil fuels also means we are taking away wealth and power from Russia too, since a lot of their government revenue comes from fossil fuel.

I hope Europe is prepared to reduce, and ideally completely shut down, the trade in fossil fuels with Russia. While I am personally okay with high gas prices though, most of my fellow Americans probably are not, which is a shame in my opinion.

Hopefully this will encourage the various Green parties in Europe to wake up and embrace nuclear energy. I saw one comment on Quora that went into pretty good detail about how France has, almost accidentally, made all the right decisions for the outcome of this new development in international politics, while Germany has made all the wrong decisions. While I don't think that's necessarily true for Germany, France definitely is going to come out of this better than Germany and France's use of nuclear power is definitely part of that.

[Zapp Branniglenn]

8 hours ago, Jotari said:

Hopefully this will encourage the various Green parties in Europe to wake up and embrace nuclear energy. I saw one comment on Quora that went into pretty good detail about how France has, almost accidentally, made all the right decisions for the outcome of this new development in international politics, while Germany has made all the wrong decisions. While I don't think that's necessarily true for Germany, France definitely is going to come out of this better than Germany and France's use of nuclear power is definitely part of that.

I think nuclear energy is great! High yield, totally clean (except for, of course, the metldown scenario which certainly isn't a guaranteed eventuality. There is the issue of nuclear waste, but we can just launch that crap into outer space. Wouldn't be the only thing flying outside the Earth's atmosphere that will radiate other planets billions of years from now. It may be a good fit for the population-dense Central Europe. Since I imagine unlike here in the US, they don't have as much wide open space as we do to plant a bunch of lower yield wind turbines and solar panel farms. Hey speaking of, where's the Public Works project hiring people to set that up? You don't need much electrical engineering training to do it, I imagine. Whereas building a nuclear power plant, well that's nuclear science. Not a lot of those experts sitting around waiting for a job like there was when we were building enough nuclear bombs to glass the entire planet.

10 hours ago, XRay said:

I hope Europe is prepared to reduce, and ideally completely shut down, the trade in fossil fuels with Russia. While I am personally okay with high gas prices though, most of my fellow Americans probably are not, which is a shame in my opinion.

Well, we're going all in on it now. Gee. I sure hope all the conservatives that agreed with this suggestion won't 180 and parrot the cries of muh gas obliviously. America relies much less than Europe on Russia's contribution in this department, so I wouldn't be surprised if they don't follow suit on account of they can't afford to. To make a microscopic comparison, I am fine with any raise in gas prices because while I may not be flowing in cash, I work entirely at home and thus only need the gas to run necessary errands, rather than a daily commute like the average Californian. I feel for those guys and hope that the pay raises have been enough. But just because wages are higher doesn't mean the average person's got more money in their pocket. There are more factors than that. Mostly rent. 

[Jotari]

2 hours ago, Zapp Branniglenn said:

I think nuclear energy is great! High yield, totally clean (except for, of course, the metldown scenario which certainly isn't a guaranteed eventuality. There is the issue of nuclear waste, but we can just launch that crap into outer space. Wouldn't be the only thing flying outside the Earth's atmosphere that will radiate other planets billions of years from now. It may be a good fit for the population-dense Central Europe. Since I imagine unlike here in the US, they don't have as much wide open space as we do to plant a bunch of lower yield wind turbines and solar panel farms. Hey speaking of, where's the Public Works project hiring people to set that up? You don't need much electrical engineering training to do it, I imagine. Whereas building a nuclear power plant, well that's nuclear science. Not a lot of those experts sitting around waiting for a job like there was when we were building enough nuclear bombs to glass the entire planet.

I haven't heard of disposing nuclear waste by launching it into space as viable. The more common tactic is to bury it in the Earth. It takes a few centuries but it does vanish over time, and fossil fuels actually produce literal nuclear waste of their own in more abundance than nuclear energy (or at least coal does, not sure about oil), only they release it into the air for all of us to breath rather than being contained in a small toxic area that seems scarier but it actually pretty safe so long as you just don't go near it. Launching it into space sounds like an awful idea because it takes a hell of a lot of energy to actually get something off of earth, and you would need to send it so far away that it never comes back down. We certainly don't want nuclear waste raining down from the sky on us.

[Acacia Sgt]

A little more on what else Japan is doing:

https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/press3e_000333.html

Bringing the situation in Ukraine up to the ICC.

Also...

This could escalate...

Also of significace:

Success in the economic war?

 

Edited March 14, 2022 by Acacia Sgt

[Tetragrammaton]

The president is pretty good at playing piano

 

[Acacia Sgt]

What are the chances Moldova could actually try to take advantage of the situation...?

[Jotari]

7 hours ago, Acacia Sgt said:

What are the chances Moldova could actually try to take advantage of the situation...?

Ehh. I doubt it. If Moldova could take Transnistria they would have done so long ago. It's not like Russia has a border with Transistria that they could quickly and effectively reinforce. I haven't looked into Moldova's military capacity, but I do know it's the poorest country in Europe so I can't imagine they can muster all that much strength (not that lack of wealth = lack of military power, hello there North Korea, but I still doubt Moldova's forces are that strong).

[Acacia Sgt]

8 hours ago, Jotari said:

Ehh. I doubt it. If Moldova could take Transnistria they would have done so long ago. It's not like Russia has a border with Transistria that they could quickly and effectively reinforce. I haven't looked into Moldova's military capacity, but I do know it's the poorest country in Europe so I can't imagine they can muster all that much strength (not that lack of wealth = lack of military power, hello there North Korea, but I still doubt Moldova's forces are that strong).

Possibly, as it'd have been seen as an act of aggression. However, the circumstances have changed. Moldova knows they're next, should Ukraine fall. Transnistria is to them what Crimea and Donbas is to Ukraine, and South Ossetia and Abkhazia is to Georgia. I wouldn't be surprised if they know that if they don't do something now, the next "special military operation" could be now on them. Who would condemn Moldova then, outside the usual Russia and co. group? The Council of Europe has already declared it as occupied territory, as well as revoke Russia's membership:

https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/16/council-of-europe-designates-transnistria-russian-occupied-territory/

Exactly. Transnistria is isolated, and so far Russia has mostly stalled in their advance across Ukraine, so any chances of reinforcing Transnistria look slim. For now, it hasn't devolved to Moldova taking up arms to dislodge the Russians there... so who knows, what may happen.

Edited March 17, 2022 by Acacia Sgt

[Jotari]

5 hours ago, Acacia Sgt said:

Possibly, as it'd have been seen as an act of aggression. However, the circumstances have changed. Moldova knows they're next, should Ukraine fall. Transnistria is to them what Crimea and Donbas is to Ukraine, and South Ossetia and Abkhazia is to Georgia. I wouldn't be surprised if they know that if they don't do something now, the next "special military operation" could be now on them. Who would condemn Moldova then, outside the usual Russia and co. group? The Council of Europe has already declared it as occupied territory, as well as revoke Russia's membership:

https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/16/council-of-europe-designates-transnistria-russian-occupied-territory/

Exactly. Transnistria is isolated, and so far Russia has mostly stalled in their advance across Ukraine, so any chances of reinforcing Transnistria look slim. For now, it hasn't devolved to Moldova taking up arms to dislodge the Russians there... so who knows, what may happen.

My point isn't that Moldova doesn't want to take Transistria by force, it's that they literally can't. As they haven't been able to get it in the decades it's existed. Transnistria is different to the Ukrainian territories. Moldova as a modern independent state has never had control of Transnistria, it's existed as is since the fall of the Soviet Union (and from what I know of Transistria, it might just be too hard core to even accept Russian rule, as Transistria seems far more Soviet than Russian in its values). Transnistria is far more of an independent country than the rebel regions in Ukraine. The only reason it's internationally recognised as part of Moldova is because it was part of Moldova when both were an internal region of the USSR.

[eclipse]

So I'm back for now.  Two things:

1. Stay topical.  Most of you are doing a great job of this.
2. Passing off Russian propaganda as proper discussion will result in heavy consequences.  For new accounts, it's an outright ban.  I need to read this topic in more depth, but I don't remember seeing anything horrifically obvious (just remember that the capital is "Kyiv").

[Armchair General]

Well, there isn't much of anything new going on, outside of the fact that the Ukrainians have accepted an legion of foreign volunteers and that the Russians might be losing their momentum with their invasion, at this point.

 

Only thing that's notable, today, is that the Russians have lost their sixth general in this war and a seventh official might have been died with him

Edited March 26, 2022 by Armchair General