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So, uh, the Ukraine-Russian situation


Jotari
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17 hours ago, Tetragrammaton said:

This is what the President did for a living before people elected him.

 

So, what's the context behind this? Because I know that he's an comedian who starred in an few romantic comedies and worked for an television network; but this feels like an random satirical vid.

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1 hour ago, Armchair General said:

So, what's the context behind this? Because I know that he's an comedian who starred in an few romantic comedies and worked for an television network; but this feels like an random satirical vid.

He had his own tv station so he could really produce anything he wanted. So, yeah, totally in character for it to be some random one off. Could also have been from his variety show years. A bit hard to tell as he has one of those faces that doesn't seem to age.

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Not really relevant for the current war, unless someone has a different say on the matter. What is, however:

Severodonetsk not yet down, it seems.

Edited by Acacia Sgt
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  • 2 weeks later...

Ukraine is running out of ammunition for their artillery batteries, shipments are arriving too slowly to halt the Russian advance, the Ukrainians are supposed to get an few MLRS trucks from the UK and America, and the Russians are implied to be running the "scorched earth" routine.

 

Note that I'm having a lot of trouble finding an free article about this, for some reason

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Well, it has come to this.

https://www.brusselstimes.com/eu-affairs/268817/russian-forces-threaten-to-blow-up-europes-largest-nuclear-reactor

These past days they have been shelling the plant, has already sustained some damage, and now there's reports it has been mined and rigged to blow up should they start losing further ground. Should this really be happening.

---

In a different tone of news, an airbase in Crimea was attacked, with high chances everything in it got neutralized, or most of it at least. Considering its far behind the frontlines...

 

Edited by Acacia Sgt
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  • 1 month later...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/19/russia-no-longer-has-full-control-of-luhansk-as-ukraine-recaptures-village

So the incredible Ukrainian military offensive begun taking -however slightly- the separatist republics in the east.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/19/ukraine-russia-war-nuclear-plant-pugacheva/

And it has got the separatists panicked to the point of asking for outright Russian annexation now. I'm totally IDK if the calls for annexation are to be taken seriously, and if so, whether they would change the war at all.

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Putin announces partial military mobilization for Russian citizens (axios.com)

Flights out of Russia sell out after Putin orders partial call-up | Reuters

He's looking for as many as 300,000 reserves and is also trying to fast-track annexation referendums in separatist-held territories in an effort to legitimize more force in the name of "defending Russian soil." Which has resulted in widespread protests and mass flights to Turkey and the Trans-Caucasus nations which don't require a visa.

Oh, and he's threatening the nuclear option too:

Putin Raises Nuclear Threat Following Battlefield Losses | Time

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It's getting more and more difficult for the average Russian to ignore the consequences of autocratic leaders who aren't held accountable for their actions.

At the start of the year 2000 the Russians aspired to become a peaceful and eventually prosperous 21st century country. And nothing was stopping them either. But now, 22 years later, they're being drafted to go die in an absolutely pointless conflict that their own leaders started for no reason. People who think the difference between democracy and dictatorship is inconsequential are deluding themselves.

Edited by Hrothgar777
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15 minutes ago, Hrothgar777 said:

But now, 22 years later, they're being drafted to go die in an absolutely pointless conflict that their own leaders started for no reason

In all fairness, they're trying to flee the country to avoid the draft. If anything, it's an indicator that Ukraine is bleeding the Russian army dry in terms of manpower.

 

15 minutes ago, Hrothgar777 said:

People who think the difference between democracy and dictatorship is inconsequential are deluding themselves

Well, it all depends on finding the perfect candidate to run against someone who's been routinely re-elected. As it is, he's set to remain as Russia's president until 2036 thanks to that referendum that was passed.

Edited by Armchair General
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2 hours ago, Hrothgar777 said:

At the start of the year 2000 the Russians aspired to become a peaceful and eventually prosperous 21st century country. And nothing was stopping them either. But now, 22 years later, they're being drafted to go die in an absolutely pointless conflict that their own leaders started for no reason. People who think the difference between democracy and dictatorship is inconsequential are deluding themselves.

To be fair when your very first president starts shooting the parliamentary building with tanks things already aren't off on a good start. And given a bunch of robber barons immediately started hoarding all the wealth and power after the Soviet collapse there were a lot of things stopping Russia from becoming a prosperous country. The same intelligence service from the Soviet dictatorship also never really went away and supplied a good portion of the robber barons taking over Russia. 

So the Russian project was likely doomed for failure even in the Yeltsin days. 

Edited by Etrurian emperor
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  • 2 weeks later...

Amazing, the Ukrainian momentum keeps going.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/01/ukraine-forces-encircle-thousands-of-russian-troops-in-key-city

Northern Donetsk Oblast is practically liberated by now if not soon enough. Already reports of fighting happening east and northeast over at Luhansk Oblast either way.

Edited by Acacia Sgt
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In surprising news:

The bridge over the Kerch Straight was... well, no one really knows at this point what exactly happened, but the point is that part of it collapsed onto the water and a fuel train is on fire over the rail line. Suffice to say, this is going to effectively cut-off the supply line through Crimea (or at least make it even harder to use without the bridge), putting the Russian elements there and at Kherson in more trouble than they already are.

Edited by Acacia Sgt
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  • 10 months later...
On 2/19/2022 at 8:31 AM, Jotari said:

I'm pretty sure Putin isn't stupid enough to invade

Unfortunately, it turned out to be rather stupid. My relatives live in Ukraine. The fight against Russian aggression is a stark reminder of the importance of protecting sovereignty and respecting international law. The global community must come together to provide humanitarian assistance, diplomatic support and military assistance, if necessary. This organization https://nhukr.org/ is engaged in providing comprehensive assistance to Ukrainian people who have suffered from hostilities. By supporting Ukraine, we are not only protecting its territorial integrity, but also protecting the principles that underlie a just and peaceful world order.

Edited by Tom2515
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Since someone already bumped this thread, I guess I'll comment on it.

 

In the latest news:

The Ukrainian counteroffensive, mainly concentrated in the south in the Melitopol-Mariupol area but also in the east near Bakhmut, has achieved a breakthrough at the settlement of Urozhaine after many weeks where the operation seemed completely dead in the water.

It's been pointed out countless times before that Ukraine's job here is incredibly difficult given the scale of Russia's defenses, but in the same vein they don't really have to liberate a vast piece of real estate. All they have to do is cut off the land bridge between Crimea and Donbass, even at a narrow point. If this holding, once taken, can then be sustained, it'll be a huge symbolic and practical blow to the Kremlin even if the counteroffensive accomplishes nothing else.

 

I'm no expert in logistics or whatnot but I can give one rather mundane example of how this would impact Russia: earlier this summer there was a wave of Russian civilians vacationing to Crimea who drove through occupied Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson to get to and from there. Thanks to last year's invasion it was as easy for them as to travel, say, from Moscow to Novgorod.

To lose that land route would de-normalize their perception of Crimea as naturally and permanently Russian, though of course they could still venture to the peninsula across the Kerch Strait Bridge (which comes under periodic attack). In turn this could set the stage for Russia conceding Crimea in eventual negotiations, as losing it would no longer be seen as unthinkable by that time.

 

But most importantly, success in this venture would help convince the West to keep the aid flowing as it'd re-embolden hopes that Russia can, contrary to old myths, be defeated.

The opposite is also true: if Ukraine doesn't pull this off, then that support could wane. I am a proud Republican but one thing I'm disappointed by is my party's lesser enthusiasm to spend what is necessary to win our little Cold War 2.0 compared to Democrats, who for the most part aren't faltering at all on this front. Antiwar voices within the party could gain traction if pumping money into Ukraine seems an increasingly pointless ordeal in the aftermath of a failed counteroffensive. And since they control the House and can exercise filibuster in the Senate, well...you get the idea.

In other words, like the beginning of the invasion itself, what we're witnessing right now is a pivotal moment in contemporary history. How Ukraine performs could non-hyperbolically determine the future of our world. A future where Ukraine eventually falls to Russia could set the stage for further wars of conquest in Europe and elsewhere, or even escalate to WW3, whereas a future where Russia's imperialist ambitions decisively fail in Ukraine could serve to truly and finally materialize Francis Fukuyama's vision of the "end of history".

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Let me reiterate that Ukraine wins if they pull this off anywhere along the current southern front, with or without retaking any big cities.

But wouldn't it be a spectacular end to this summer if the war-weary troops defending their country, in the style of the protagonists from a certain obscure Japanese cartoon, got their own "Return to Mariupol Arc" which ended with them bathing in the sea?

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  • 2 weeks later...

Mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is presumed dead after a plane crash outside Moscow - ABC News

For context, Prigozhin is the leader of the Wagner Group, who have been helping Putin in the war effort. Relations with the army eroded over several months which led to what was essentially an armed protest two months back in late June. Negotiations with Belarus mediating defused the situation before it became a full-on coup, but such an uproar is speculated to have put a target on Prigozhin's back... well, this might be it. Details are still emerging but heavily lean towards kill confirmed, never mind the likelihood this was a Kremlin plot to remove another rogue element.

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On 8/15/2023 at 12:14 AM, Hrothgar777 said:

Let me reiterate that Ukraine wins if they pull this off anywhere along the current southern front, with or without retaking any big cities.

But wouldn't it be a spectacular end to this summer if the war-weary troops defending their country, in the style of the protagonists from a certain obscure Japanese cartoon, got their own "Return to Mariupol Arc" which ended with them bathing in the sea?

I’d settle for the Russkies back off, after having been taught they dont get to just march across any border they want and not expect to get shot at

I hope the resolve of the Ukrainians holds out

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