Three Hopes - Rate their Chances

[Fabulously Olivier]

So, let's evaluate every Three Houses character, and determine their likelihood of being playable on a scale of 1 to 10 - least to most. These will be averaged out at the end of each day. And on release, we'll get to compare our predictions to the roster.

 

Let's consider Byleth, Edelgard, Dimitri, Claude, Hubert, and Hilda to be confirmed, as they've all made the trailer and are either confirmed playable, or are so likely to be such that it is pointless to speculate. We'll save potential/likely NPCs like Judith and Jeralt for later, but they will have their day.

 

Eagles

Edelgard - Confirmed

Hubert - Confirmed

Bernadetta - 8.68 - Confirmed

Dorothea - 8.44 - Confirmed

Ferdinand von Aegir - 7.63 - Confirmed

Petra - 6.63 - Confirmed

Linhardt - 4.33 - Confirmed

Caspar - 3.56 - Confirmed

 

Lions

Dimitri - Confirmed

Felix - 9.56 - Confirmed

Ingrid - 8.55 - Confirmed

Sylvain - 8.15 - Confirmed

Dedue - 7.69 - Confirmed

Mercedes - 6.61 - Confirmed

Annette - 5.86 - Confirmed

Ashe - 5.70 - Confirmed

 

Deer

Claude - Confirmed

Hilda - Confirmed

Lysithea - 9.86 - Confirmed

Marianne - 9.61 - Confirmed

Lorenz - 6.33 - Confirmed

Leonie - 4.50 - Confirmed

Raphael - 3.71 - Confirmed

Ignatz - 3.10 - Confirmed

 

Church

Byleth - 10.00 - Confirmed

Rhea - 8.63 - Confirmed

Seteth - 8.00 - Confirmed

Flayn - 7.86 - Confirmed

Anna - 7.22 - NPC

Catherine - 6.20 - Confirmed

Shamir - 6.13 - Confirmed

Jeritza - 5.85 - Confirmed

Manuela - 4.83 - Confirmed

Alois - 4.67 - NPC

Cyril - 3.88 - NPC

Hanneman - 3.00 - NPC

Gilbert - 1.56 - NPC

 

Wolves

Yuri - 7.86 - Confirmed

Constance - 5.29 - Confirmed

Balthus - 4.25 - Confirmed

Hapi - 4.00 - Confirmed

 

NPCs/Villains/Other

Shez (Protag) - Confirmed

Gatekeeper - 6.81 - Confirmed

Monica - 6.14 - Confirmed

Jeralt - 6.14 - Confirmed

Sothis - 5.86 - Confirmed

Judith - 5.50 - NPC

Randolph - 4.57 - NPC

Kronya - 3.63 - NPC

Nemesis - 3.50

Rodrigue - 3.43 - Confirmed

Ladislava - 3.36 - NPC

Thales - 3.25 - NPC

Fleche - 2.93 - NPC

Cornelia - 2.93 - NPC

Indech - 2.67

Macuil - 2.67

Holst - 1.75 - Confirmed

Nader - 1.50 - NPC

Bergliez - 1.50 - NPC

Claude's relative - 1.38

Solon - 1.25 - NPC

Aelfric - 1.00

Kostas - 1.00 - NPC

Cleobulus - 1.00 - NPC

Hegemon Husk - 1.00 - NPC

Margrave Gautier - 1.00 - NPC

Count Galatea - 1.00

Count Gloucester - 1.00 - NPC

Tomas - 0.88 - NPC

Metodey - 0.62 - NPC

Baron Von Ochs - 0.53 - NPC

Acheron - 0.44 - NPC

Gwendal - 0.42 - NPC

Lonato - 0.22 - NPC

Miklan - 0.22 - NPC

Edited July 7, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[ciphertul]

I got a strong feeling he will be playable both as a retainer and as a male armor knight.

So I rate 9/10 score.

Edited February 23, 2022 by ciphertul
Numerical score added

[Fabulously Olivier]

I'll assign an 8/10 score. He's definitely lower on the popularity scale. He's likely to be there because of his status as a retainer, but he's also the only retainer to notably have a reason to not be there - his disappearance in the time skip in which he only survives if a certain quest is complete.

 

He's also a bit more tertiary than other retainers in that he's... replaceable. For Edelgard, Hubert is her uncontested one and only closest character. For Claude, no one else gets as close as Hilda. For Dimitri, he has a seperate trio of friends (Sylvain, Ingrid, and Felix) who are all more popular and perfectly capable of fulfilling Dedue's role.

 

I'll assign a "want" score of 10/10. I generally prefer playing male characters, he has a badass design, he's a great character, and he could be really fun to play regardless of whether they assign him lance or axe as a knight. (Note - want scores aren't factored, as they aren't predictions).

Edited February 23, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[ciphertul]

1 minute ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

I'll assign an 8/10 score. He's definitely lower on the popularity scale. He's likely to be there because of his status as a retainer, but he's also the only retainer to notably have a reason to not be there - his disappearance in the time skip in which he only survives if a certain quest is complete.

If would be based heavily on A if that quest was done and B where the game takes place story wise.

[King Marth 64]

I still think Dedue will might appear in Three Hopes since he is Dimitri's retainer. I don't think it's going to make any sense why he was absent in Three Hopes since it's takes place directly in the Three Houses timeline.

[vanguard333]

I'd say that he is likely to be a playable character in the game. Hubert and Hilda's confirmation suggests that retainers will be playable, though of course Hubert is the most plot-relevant retainer, and there are other reasons they would want Hilda to be a playable character...

Another thing that Dedue has is that he is the obvious choice to use as the Heavy Armour character (other than Edelgard of course).

I'd say that the likelihood of playable Dedue in Three Hopes is 9/10.

[Troykv]

Dedue is one of the safest choices for a playable character, being one of the only characters that always gets unique roles in 3H (with the other non-MC like this being, of course, Hubert). I'm extremely sure he's gonna appear one way or another, the only reason I hesitate to give him a proper 10/10 is because... well... he's unpopular xDU.

Dedue gets a 9/10, he's likely gonna be the Frederick of the game, the character you know is here for how things just worked out his way, but people won't likely mind.

Edited February 23, 2022 by Troykv

[Etrurian emperor]

Not as likely as you'd think. I still recall him being the only retainer absent when they initially got into Heroes. He'll probably be there but he's not the sure bet that some other characters like Felix or Lysithea are. 

7/10.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

I'm gonna say 8 out of 10. We've already seen Hubert and Hilda, so why not Dedue? He's the only playable character from Duscur, so not having him around would totally sideline the region. Still, the fact that he can die during the timeskip gives me pause. Presumably, things go different from the Battle of Garreg Mach, if not earlier, so Dedue probably never has to break Dimitri out of prison. Then again, Dimitri's life could be threatened in another way, so they might give Dedue a "Rodrigue Moment". In which case, Dedue wouldn't be playable. I hope not, but who knows what the writers' designs are?

[Dark Holy Elf]

3 hours ago, Etrurian emperor said:

Not as likely as you'd think. I still recall him being the only retainer absent when they initially got into Heroes. He'll probably be there but he's not the sure bet that some other characters like Felix or Lysithea are. 

7/10

Yeah I agree with this. Whether it's race-related or another reason, Dedue has always been notably less popular than the other retainers.

I'd look at it this way: if they do only 2-4 characters per house, is he a slam-dunk? I wouldn't say so. Felix is definitely ahead of him in the line, Sylvain possibly is as well, and I can't see them doing 4 men + 0 women, so I'd say there will need to be at least 5 or 6 Lions in before Dedue starts to feel safe to me. It's of course possible they decide to go "retainer = automatically in", but I wouldn't count on it.

[Ether]

22 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Yeah I agree with this. Whether it's race-related or another reason, Dedue has always been notably less popular than the other retainers.

I'd look at it this way: if they do only 2-4 characters per house, is he a slam-dunk? I wouldn't say so. Felix is definitely ahead of him in the line, Sylvain possibly is as well, and I can't see them doing 4 men + 0 women, so I'd say there will need to be at least 5 or 6 Lions in before Dedue starts to feel safe to me. It's of course possible they decide to go "retainer = automatically in", but I wouldn't count on it.

I think there is a possibility that all of the GD in the game, Claude aside, are women. Lysithea and Marianne dwarf all of the GD men, and while Lorenz might sneak in over Leonie for his dynamic with Claude, I wouldn't call it a sure bet. If they do this, I think an all-male Blue Lions cast is reasonably likely. Overall I'd give Dedue an 8, maybe an 8.5.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Dedue seems pretty likely to me. Despite probably being the least popular Blue Lions house member, I think he's still one of the most important Blue Lions. For that, I think he's more likely than Ashe, Mercedes, and Annette. I think he's about as likely as Sylvain and Ingrid, who I both think will get into the game. The only unconfirmed member of his house that I think is more likely than him is Felix.

That being said, they could pull a fast one and exclude Dedue, which would be odd and a shame (even though he's low on my personal tier list of TH characters). I'll give him a score of 8.5/10

[Dark Holy Elf]

20 minutes ago, Ether said:

I think there is a possibility that all of the GD in the game, Claude aside, are women. Lysithea and Marianne dwarf all of the GD men, and while Lorenz might sneak in over Leonie for his dynamic with Claude, I wouldn't call it a sure bet. If they do this, I think an all-male Blue Lions cast is reasonably likely.

I agree with the first part of your statement, but I'll note that GD still won't be all women, because they'll have Claude. As such I don't think it's terribly likely we'll get an all-male Lions squad either, provided it's at least four people.

If it's three, I could absolutely see three men [which could include Dedue, but not a sure thing], especially if the other houses are two women and one man, which would be my bet at that point.

[Florete]

Assuming scores are equivalents with percents, I'll give Dedue...60%, or 6/10. I can easily imagine scenarios where he doesn't make it in. If he wasn't Dimitri's right-hand man, he'd be in a situation where I think he wouldn't make it in unless all students make it in.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Florete

[Fabulously Olivier]

47 minutes ago, Ether said:

I think there is a possibility that all of the GD in the game, Claude aside, are women. Lysithea and Marianne dwarf all of the GD men, and while Lorenz might sneak in over Leonie for his dynamic with Claude, I wouldn't call it a sure bet. If they do this, I think an all-male Blue Lions cast is reasonably likely. Overall I'd give Dedue an 8, maybe an 8.5.

I'd say there's a few reasons for Lorenz or Raphael getting in over Leonie (her being unpopular, being fairly unimportant, and sharing her prf weapon with a super popular character who *spoilers* we'll be rating tomorrow). But Leonie is a character for another day.

 

The way I'm going to try to do this is BL, BE, GD, Church, BL, and so on. Alternating the Three Houses male/female together, and alternating the Church by itself (though Church is mainly female). When the church runs out, work in NPCs and Ashen Wolves.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[vanguard333]

50 minutes ago, Ether said:

I think there is a possibility that all of the GD in the game, Claude aside, are women. Lysithea and Marianne dwarf all of the GD men, and while Lorenz might sneak in over Leonie for his dynamic with Claude, I wouldn't call it a sure bet. If they do this, I think an all-male Blue Lions cast is reasonably likely. Overall I'd give Dedue an 8, maybe an 8.5.

Yeah; I can definitely see that happening.

Honestly, Black Eagles is the only house with any reasonable likelihood of being at least somewhat equal; Ferdinand and Linhardt are standout characters and, since Raphael is unlikely to happen, Caspar would probably have to be included to be the gauntlets-wielder, but at the same time, Bernadetta, Dorothea and Petra are also popular characters with a lot they can contribute, so Black Eagles is probably the only house where there's a chance of it being somewhat-equal number of male and female characters included.

[lenticular]

I give Dedue a 4/10. Really, the only thing he has going for him is that he's Dimitri's retainer. Other than that, he's not particularly popular, not particularly plot relevant, doesn't have a relic or personal weapon, and has a main class (armor/axe) that doesn't offer anything unique given that Edelgard exists. The real question here is, do we think that the retainers will be automatically included just for being retainers? I think probably not, though I wouldn't be surprised if they do go that way.

[Malfaria]

I'd say 7.5 out of 10, since he's the only student to die off due to plot reason, and he is Dimitri's retainer after all. He Does share the heavy armor class line with Gilbert/Edelgard, though. Might make him easier to implement into the game, tbh.

[LoneStar]

Isn't there a shot in the trailer where a character with brown gauntlets touches Dimitri's hand? I'm pretty sure that's Dedue, obviously we haven't seen a full glimpse, so I'll go with 9/10. Even if he isn't inherently that popular compared to characters like Felix or Sylvain, it would be weird to not have Dimitri's right-hand man present. 

[Fabulously Olivier]

Dedue's score averages out to 7.69/10.

 

Now onto Day 2 - Bernadetta.

 

I'm giving a likelihood score of 10/10. As ironic as it is to see this crowd-fearing ball of anxiety mowing down thousands of foes (she'll basically be the Olivia of this game), I think she's one of those characters who is simply much too popular to leave out (alongside Hilda, Felix, Marianne, and Lysithea). I think that even in the worst world where we only get three students (counting lords) per house, she'd still be a lock, and that chance just goes way up with each additional student. The only way I don't see any of the aforementioned characters making base game is if they are considered DLC-bait.

 

I'll also state my want score of 10/10. Bernie-bear is my 2nd favorite FE girl after Hapi. I definitely want to play the likely Bow Knight class she'd bring, and if there is class swapping, it's likely that she'd have Paladin and Sniper. Let's see her evolve from "must protecc" to "must protecc herself."

Edited February 24, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[Etrurian emperor]

Yeah I could see Berniebear getting into the game. She's popular, cute and ''funny'' enough to allow Koei go get a bit creative with her musou attacks. 

Still I hope the roster won't be entirely decided by popularity. Such choices always leads to a flawed roster.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Just now, Etrurian emperor said:

Yeah I could see Berniebear getting into the game. She's popular, cute and ''funny'' enough to allow Koei go get a bit creative with her musou attacks. 

Still I hope the roster won't be entirely decided by popularity. Such choices always leads to a flawed roster.

Well, one can at least rest assured that 3H is such a well-balanced game that any roster is likely to have good class distribution. They would have to go out of their way to make something ridiculous like the "Oops All Swordies" roster of FEW.

[ciphertul]

Yup gonna mimic Olivier here, 10/10 on her being in the game and giving a 10/10 on my personal want scale as well. 

[Florete]

Bernadetta: 90%. She's the most popular of the bow-based students and the others don't have any special reason to be added over her.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I see no world where Bernadetta doesn't make it into the game. She's one of the characters that's almost guaranteed a lock. 9.75/10