Three Hopes - Rate their Chances

[vikingsfan92]

59 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Rhea is clearly the main antagonist for Edelgard and no amount of extra content was going to change that.

Well, agree to disagree on writing quality. And regardless, while I think Thales could have worked as the main antagonist to Dimitri (since he almost surely had a hand in orchestrating the Tragedy of Duscur), but that's not the direction they went.

(Oddly enough I don't think he works very well as a main antagonist to Claude, which is the one he's closest to being... the Agarthans are pretty unrelated to Claude's personal goals. Though he does potentially work as a main antagonist to Byleth due to being behind Solon and Kronya who both inflict direct personal injury on people Byleth cares about.)

Personally I feel that you can argue Rhea and Aurindel are equal obstacles for Edelgard. While I can see the argument for Rhea being the more thematic antagonist in some regards Thales can be a good contrast (to both Rhea and Edelgard) while also being more personal with his direct role in Edelgard's family's tragedy.   I see it more of a toss up and either one can work as a final boss than I do think it has to be one or the other so long as both are finished off.  I don't think an extension of CF be forced to story wise have to put Thales after Rhea for any reason other than coding the game itself as it is now may not allow otherwise but I also wouldn't care too much if he was after so long as both of them are dealt with.

Also Thales being badly written in AM imo is more to do with his lack of existence and the imo harmful effects it has on other characters than it does himself.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Thales gets a 3.25.

 

Day 47 - Jeralt

 

Jeralt gets a 5/10 chance, 9/10 want from me. It would be cool to see him actually have a chance to show off his alleged badassery.

 

Dying doesn't actually preclude a character from being playable in these games either. DW characters die (usually from melodramatic arrow scenes) all the time, and some of One Piece Pirate Warriors most popular characters are the very-much-dead Ace and Whitebeard.

Edited April 10, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

It would be hilarious to see Jeralt raise all the same death flags as before, only to not actually die. The original trailer gave us Monica (Kronya?), so while she's in the game, it's possible she doesn't try to kill Jeralt, or is otherwise unsuccessful. And this could be one of the areas where Three Hopes manages to right one of the wrongs of its predecessor. Then again, Paladin is likely to be a competitive class (Ferdinand, Sylvain, possibly Lorenz and Leonie). I'll grant Jeralt a 4 out of 10.

[Use the Falchion]

I'll give Jeralt an 8/10. We know he's in the game, he was an NPC in the previous game, and Mercedes being the game throws everything about limited playable characters off (or for those who have been hoping for all playable characters to return, it could be seen as a little more proof for that), so I'm going to vote higher than I may have otherwise done so. 

[Dark Holy Elf]

3/10 for Jeralt. Again, I'm not adjusting my scores now that Mercedes is in, for all that I think she makes everyone (even NPCs) more likely. I just think he's definitely less likely than, say, Lorenz.

Jeralt's not even in FEH yet so it's pretty clear the devs don't consider him some sort of priority character.

Want is... definitely higher! I like Jeralt. A good dad in a game full of bad dads.

[Florete]

80% for Jeralt and Mercedes has nothing to do with it. That trailer tease is significant. If your dead dad is going to have the same role as in the original game, you're not going to put such a tease in the first trailer.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Jeralt is an interesting case. On one hand, I'm not sure how important IS truly deems him. On the other hand, I concur that the trailer tease is significant, and he does have a decently prominent role in TH. I'll go with a 6/10

Personal want is, eh, I guess 5/10

[ThePrimeOne]

Catching up with Thales - 8/10

As for Jeralt, 9/10. In the trailer where he gets back up, it's already started raining, which only occurs after Jeralt dies. Imo, he's meant to come back from the dead somehow, so I think he'll be playable after that point in the story.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Jeralt gets 6.14.

 

Day 48 - Gatekeeper

 

Gatekeeper is the perfect dlc character. He's not important to the story, but he'll make great headlines and memes. He's also a great joke character, which every Warriors game seems to have at least one of. 

 

So I'm going with an 8/10 chance, and a 10/10 want.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Gatekeeper is the only good kind of gatekeeper, because he's not standing between me and necessary medication.

...Ahem. Gatekeeper memed his way into CYL, and he's become a much-beloved NPC. It'd be fun having a generic-styled playable unit, as well as getting Kyle McCarley a continuing role in the series. Then again, he might be hard to fit narratively - after all, it would mean abandoning his all-too-precious post!

I think he's got a decent chance to make it in, especially via the DLC. Nothing to report today, except a 5 out of 10 for our helmeted hero.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Shanty Pete's 1st Mate
Typo.

[Florete]

It's my boy!

Depending on when the game began development, I wouldn't be surprised if Gatekeeper wasn't in the original plan (but it's still possible he was, because he was popular pretty quickly), but his CYL win was over a year ago, and it was a huge one, being the 2nd highest voted CYL winner of all time. Even if development was underway, there should have been time to add him at least as a bonus character or conceptualize him for DLC. And he'll honestly just be good for viral marketing, since people are going to talk more about the nameless NPC getting added than characters who, while popular, aren't surprising to see included.

85%

He's also my 2nd most-wanted after Dorothea.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Yeah. I thought this would be a fun bump for one of the last few days. The last few will be Nemesis, the boss bunch (Indech, Macuil, Aelfric), and Rhea.

 

Everyone else is so minor that I don't think they're even worth rating (even if it might be amusing to have a day where we pretend Kostas is the second coming of Brigand Boss).

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Actual popularity? Nonexistent. Meme power? Abundant. It's a shame his Meme CYL Win hoodwinked so many people into thinking he's genuinely popular, because he's not, his genuine fanbase is a very loud minority. He gets a 2/10, there is no way he's being picked over any playable TH character or any actually popular/prominent NPC. If he's confirmed, then mark my words, it confirms every playable TH character, he's not being picked over any of them.

Personal want is maybe a 4/10. I've gone from totally indifferent to mildly aggravated about him, largely in part to his obnoxious minor fanbase constantly clamoring his CYL win as some kind of holy sign that he's as popular as Edelgard and Dimitri.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Fire Emblem Fan

[Fabulously Olivier]

Do I think Gatekeeper is as popular as Edelgard and Dimitri? No. Do I think he's comparably popular to some of the less-popular students? Yes. Do I think him stealing the first place win from the alleged 'face of the franchise' after 5 years is the funniest shit I've ever seen? YES!

Edited April 11, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[Etrurian emperor]

7/10. Gatekeeper has the power of memes on his side. It be a fairly obvious and even somewhat ''hype worthy'' candidate for the joke/shock character slot. 

My big hope is still that Monica is spared by the Slitherers and that they instead kill and replace Gatekeeper, turning him into the mighty hatekeeper! 

[Fabulously Olivier]

8 minutes ago, Etrurian emperor said:

My big hope is still that Monica is spared by the Slitherers and that they instead kill and replace Gatekeeper, turning him into the mighty hatekeeper! 

Easy, now. I don't think the Game Awards could handle the storytelling equivalent of Citizen Kane. We have to give the other games a chance.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[vanguard333]

I don't think there's anything I can say about Gatekeeper's chances; there really is nothing to report. Sorry; I had to make that pun

There's no way that Three Hopes isn't going to utilize his sheer overwhelming meme-popularity. They don't necessarily have to utilize it through making him playable, but he's an infantry lance-wielder; he only really has Dimitri for competition there.

I'd say 9/10.

[Florete]

I'm just gonna sit here wondering what makes Marianne too popular not to include in many people's eyes, while Gatekeeper, who more than doubled her votes in their winning CYL, is currently sitting at ~66% chance with not a single perfect score to his name.

Like even if you account for the vote inflation, which I often bring up in other contexts, he still got a whopping 38,712 more votes, an amount I really don't think inflation covers.

And don't give me shit about "meme popularity." For one, saying that doesn't mean anything; meme popularity is popularity, like it or not. For two, he's been popular the whole time; this article was published shortly after Three Houses released. Someone even hacked him in to be playable (and an article was published about it). He was added to CYL at all because people wanted to vote for him!

[Fabulously Olivier]

16 minutes ago, Florete said:

I'm just gonna sit here wondering what makes Marianne too popular not to include in many people's eyes, while Gatekeeper, who more than doubled her votes in their winning CYL, is currently sitting at ~66% chance with not a single perfect score to his name.

Like even if you account for the vote inflation, which I often bring up in other contexts, he still got a whopping 38,712 more votes, an amount I really don't think inflation covers.

And don't give me shit about "meme popularity." For one, saying that doesn't mean anything; meme popularity is popularity, like it or not. For two, he's been popular the whole time; this article was published shortly after Three Houses released. Someone even hacked him in to be playable (and an article was published about it). He was added to CYL at all because people wanted to vote for him!

Well, I agree that he's probably getting in. But it isn't just popularity in question. Marianne and Lysithea are playable students and obvious frontrunners for their house. They are the (excuse my pun) gatekeepers for their whole house. Gatekeeper is an NPC. That is some kind of disadvantage, and it says so much in his favor that he is scoring above any other NPC right now - including four who are in the trailer.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[Florete]

2 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

Well, I agree that he's probably getting in. But it isn't just popularity in question. Marianne and Lysithea are playable students and obvious frontrunners for their house. They are the (excuse my pun) gatekeepers for their whole house. Gatekeeper is an NPC. That is some kind of disadvantage, and it says so much in his favor that he is scoring above any other NPC right now - including four who are in the trailer.

I do acknowledge that being a nameless NPC vs a house student is in some ways a disadvantage, but I don't think Marianne is a gatekeeper for her house. I said back on her day that if the roster is small and each house gets 4 characters, I could plausibly see GD being Claude, Hilda, Lorenz, and Lysithea. The first three for their relevance, the last for popularity. It is also an even gender split.

Regardless, what I was getting at in my post was that multiple people on Marianne's day rated her chances perfectly with the logic that she's too popular not to make it (in one phrasing or another). If Marianne is too popular not to make it, Gatekeeper is getting two roster slots.

The only way I can see the logic of "too popular not to make it" getting Marianne in is if Koei decided they wanted every TH CYL winner in which, y'know, gets Gatekeeper in, too.

[ciphertul]

I'm not gonna lie, Gatekeeper and Abysskeeper are the only 2 none 3 Hopes OCs that I thin k would actively lower the quality of roster slots. Not all popularity is good.

[Fabulously Olivier]

7 minutes ago, ciphertul said:

I'm not gonna lie, Gatekeeper and Abysskeeper are the only 2 none 3 Hopes OCs that I thin k would actively lower the quality of roster slots. Not all popularity is good.

You take that back about Abysskeeper!

 

Just kidding. I don't even think we need an Abysskeeper rating day. Basically the same discussion, but less.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Meme popularity isn't genuine popularity, if it was then Jar Jar Binks is very popular and the Star Wars prequels are much more popular than the original trilogy.

Being modded into a game also does not equal popularity, people mod EVERYTHING into games nowadays. NPCs, Winnie the Pooh, Big Chungus Bugs Bunny, everything.

The CYL votes also say nothing, because you can vote for the same character SEVEN times. If just 5000 people vote for the same character seven times, that's 35,000 votes right there, that easily makes up the difference between Marianne and Gatekeeper's votes. And we all know FEH's player base is in the millions, not just 5000. Memes on the internet are a powerful thing and I can easily see that number of people all voting for the meme. The only CYLs that were truly popularity contests were CYL 1, MAYBE 2.

To compare Gatekeeper to Marianne is honestly insane.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Fire Emblem Fan

[Fabulously Olivier]

49 minutes ago, Florete said:

I do acknowledge that being a nameless NPC vs a house student is in some ways a disadvantage, but I don't think Marianne is a gatekeeper for her house. I said back on her day that if the roster is small and each house gets 4 characters, I could plausibly see GD being Claude, Hilda, Lorenz, and Lysithea. The first three for their relevance, the last for popularity. It is also an even gender split.

Regardless, what I was getting at in my post was that multiple people on Marianne's day rated her chances perfectly with the logic that she's too popular not to make it (in one phrasing or another). If Marianne is too popular not to make it, Gatekeeper is getting two roster slots.

The only way I can see the logic of "too popular not to make it" getting Marianne in is if Koei decided they wanted every TH CYL winner in which, y'know, gets Gatekeeper in, too.

Well, ultimately, you scored him well, multiple of us scored him well, and even you did not feel a perfect score was justified. You could and can issue a 100% if you think he warrants one.

 

11 minutes ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

Meme popularity isn't genuine popularity, if it was then Jar Jar Binks is very popular and the Star Wars prequels are much more popular than the original trilogy.

Being modded into a game also does not equal popularity, people mod EVERYTHING into games nowadays. NPCs, Winnie the Pooh, Big Chungus Bugs Bunny, everything.

The CYL votes also say nothing, because you can vote for the same character SEVEN times. If just 5000 people vote for the same character seven times, that's 35,000 votes right there, and we all know FEH's player base is in the millions, not just 5000. Memes on the internet are a powerful thing and I can easily see that number of people all voting for the meme. The only CYLs that were truly popularity contests were CYL 1, MAYBE 2.

To compare Gatekeeper to Marianne is honestly insane.

You say that, but if Disney would just take my calls about "Meesa in Love - a Jar Jar Binks Dating Sim," I'd be rich.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[Florete]

3 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

Well, ultimately, you scored him well, multiple of us scored him well, and even you did not feel a perfect score was justified. You could and can issue a 100% if you think he warrants one.

I don't think anyone warrants 100% unless they're literally confirmed already. I gave Lysithea 95% and that's the highest rating anyone will get from me.

Keep in mind with these comparisons that I rated Marianne 75%.