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Three Hopes - Rate their Chances


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I could see Anna appear as a bonus character if for no other reason than it's Anna; the recurring FE character.

I'd say 6/10.

At this rate, we might have to start rating the likelihood of joke characters even outside of April Fools Day.

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14 minutes ago, vanguard333 said:

I could see Anna appear as a bonus character if for no other reason than it's Anna; the recurring FE character.

I'd say 6/10.

At this rate, we might have to start rating the likelihood of joke characters even outside of April Fools Day.

In retrospect, Gatekeeper on April Fools Day would have been a good call (except that he's unironically pretty likely).

 

But I regret nothing. Pikachu day was fun for me, and some of you seemed to enjoy the joke too. And now I want a Pokemon Warriors.

Edited by Fabulously Olivier
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29 minutes ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

Anna has a high chance, she's just so iconic. You know they're gonna find some way to put her in. 8/10

In other news, I am incredibly happy that Mercedes has been confirmed. She was one of my 10/10 personal hopes. And I LOVE her design!

Congratulations! 

 

May we all get our favorites.

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This also gives us a lot of hindsight to think about. Mercedes was considered by most to be fairly low on the list as far as the Lions are concerned. If we take the aggregate scores and assume she was the 6th most likely lion, who is now confirmed, a lot of low scores that considered a smaller cast are likely inaccurate. Mercedes getting in if we only get, say, 4 lions, seems preposterous. 

Scores should remain archived of course, but I think it's worth talking about this flipping the script somewhat.

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16 minutes ago, Ether said:

This also gives us a lot of hindsight to think about. Mercedes was considered by most to be fairly low on the list as far as the Lions are concerned. If we take the aggregate scores and assume she was the 6th most likely lion, who is now confirmed, a lot of low scores that considered a smaller cast are likely inaccurate. Mercedes getting in if we only get, say, 4 lions, seems preposterous. 

Scores should remain archived of course, but I think it's worth talking about this flipping the script somewhat.

I don't remember the exact score I gave Mercedes in likelihood, but I do remember most of us thinking that she at least had some chance on account of her being Jeritza's sister, so it's not exactly "flipping the script". You do have a point though that a lot of us probably thought this game would have a smaller cast than it actually will have.

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1 hour ago, Ether said:

This also gives us a lot of hindsight to think about. Mercedes was considered by most to be fairly low on the list as far as the Lions are concerned. If we take the aggregate scores and assume she was the 6th most likely lion, who is now confirmed, a lot of low scores that considered a smaller cast are likely inaccurate. Mercedes getting in if we only get, say, 4 lions, seems preposterous. 

Scores should remain archived of course, but I think it's worth talking about this flipping the script somewhat.

Too early to tell. There's a lot that could be going on here:

 

A) Roster is bigger than some of us are thinking.

 

B) Someone on the dev team favors Mercedes.

 

C) Mercedes has been prioritized because Jeritza has a bigger role.

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8 hours ago, Ether said:

This also gives us a lot of hindsight to think about. Mercedes was considered by most to be fairly low on the list as far as the Lions are concerned. If we take the aggregate scores and assume she was the 6th most likely lion, who is now confirmed, a lot of low scores that considered a smaller cast are likely inaccurate. Mercedes getting in if we only get, say, 4 lions, seems preposterous. 

Scores should remain archived of course, but I think it's worth talking about this flipping the script somewhat.

If I remember correctly, I believe I gave Mercedes a 7.5/10? Still not as high as Felix (pretty sure I said 10/10?), or Sylvain and Ingrid (8 for both), but I thought her connection to Jeritza would play in her favor. I obviously don't know if her Jeritza connection actually is playing a role, but I was right about her having pretty good odds!

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Mercedes being confirmed absolutely makes everyone else a bit more likely, if we're going by raw percent chance. Of course, the relative value of scores is mostly the same, although Mercedes' confirmation may specifically make Jeritza a bit more likely.

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Thales is a villain that I could easily see being playable as a bonus/postgame character; he's a main villain and he has access to unique spells like quake that could easily set him apart.

I'd say 5/10 likelihood. My question is: if he were to be playable, would it be as Thales or as "Arundel"?

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55 minutes ago, vanguard333 said:

Thales is a villain that I could easily see being playable as a bonus/postgame character; he's a main villain and he has access to unique spells like quake that could easily set him apart.

I'd say 5/10 likelihood. My question is: if he were to be playable, would it be as Thales or as "Arundel"?

Thales with a costume for Arundel.

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Thales is a notable antagonist on each route, albeit sometimes in his alternative identity of "Arundel". I imagine he's probably one of the major villains in Three Hopes as well, so making him playable wouldn't make very much sense. He's not very interesting as a character, although as a unit, he does get a unique class in Agastya, and a unique dark spell in Quake. I think a 2 out of 10 is appropriate here.

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Personally with TWISD I think the better question is do they even still exist as we still know them in three hopes with the new story. If this is a golden route they could easily replace him outright with a new enemy group. If its modified version of the existing route they could easily leave him out so he can do what he does in the plot at the end of the existing routes (be Lord Aurindel in CF be an endgame fight in post timeskip VW ect).

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Well he's no doubt going to show up since he's essentially the main villain. But as a playable character I give him a 5/10. They're probably going to ''Gharnef'' him in the sense that he's around but not playable nor with an unique moveset. 

Want: /1/10. Why would I want him? He's so incompetent that he's got the dubious honor of being the only FE villain who can be defeated by accident, and his only real role is to make Edelgard a less interesting character. 

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1 hour ago, Etrurian emperor said:

Well he's no doubt going to show up since he's essentially the main villain.

Is he, though? I don't think either CF or AM treat him that way at all, and even in VW/SS where he comes closest, you could definitely debate it. Certainly the game never treats him as a major fight on any route the way it does the lords and Rhea; he gets the same boss theme as all the other Agarthans (fun fact: I've never seen his VW/SS form get a turn).

2/10 for Thales. A total dud for popularity who has at least some plot importance but not enough to overcome this, and definitely runs the risk of the Validar treatment even if he is in. More likely than Solon, but I don't think he's any more likely than the other Agarthans, and they're already all collectively low in my eyes.

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1 hour ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Is he, though? I don't think either CF or AM treat him that way at all, and even in VW/SS where he comes closest, you could definitely debate it. Certainly the game never treats him as a major fight on any route the way it does the lords and Rhea; he gets the same boss theme as all the other Agarthans (fun fact: I've never seen his VW/SS form get a turn).

At least with CF I think it probably was because of the time crunch that the route clearly had as the offscreening of Aurindel and TWSID makes no sense other than time crunch. As for AM I honestly just think it was bad writing with how Thales was written in that route.

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1 hour ago, vikingsfan92 said:

At least with CF I think it probably was because of the time crunch that the route clearly had as the offscreening of Aurindel and TWSID makes no sense other than time crunch. As for AM I honestly just think it was bad writing with how Thales was written in that route.

Rhea is clearly the main antagonist for Edelgard and no amount of extra content was going to change that.

Well, agree to disagree on writing quality. And regardless, while I think Thales could have worked as the main antagonist to Dimitri (since he almost surely had a hand in orchestrating the Tragedy of Duscur), but that's not the direction they went.

(Oddly enough I don't think he works very well as a main antagonist to Claude, which is the one he's closest to being... the Agarthans are pretty unrelated to Claude's personal goals. Though he does potentially work as a main antagonist to Byleth due to being behind Solon and Kronya who both inflict direct personal injury on people Byleth cares about.)

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10 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Rhea is clearly the main antagonist for Edelgard and no amount of extra content was going to change that.

Well, agree to disagree on writing quality. And regardless, while I think Thales could have worked as the main antagonist to Dimitri (since he almost surely had a hand in orchestrating the Tragedy of Duscur), but that's not the direction they went.

(Oddly enough I don't think he works very well as a main antagonist to Claude, which is the one he's closest to being... the Agarthans are pretty unrelated to Claude's personal goals. Though he does potentially work as a main antagonist to Byleth due to being behind Solon and Kronya who both inflict direct personal injury on people Byleth cares about.)

Wasn't Claude's route more about uncovering the truths behind Fodlan? I would say that Thales works as an antagonist in Claude's route for that reason, as the true nature behind the Crest, the Ten Elites, etc. is all a large mystery to Claude and the Agarthans and Rhea are in the center of that mystery.

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