Three Hopes - Rate their Chances

[Fabulously Olivier]

18 minutes ago, Florete said:

I don't think anyone warrants 100% unless they're literally confirmed already. I gave Lysithea 95% and that's the highest rating anyone will get from me.

Keep in mind with these comparisons that I rated Marianne 75%.

Then I suppose you'll just have to reasonably accept that as a quirk of different biases. We all have them.

 

I'm pretty open about my bias, which is that I think a big roster is much more likely than not. Albeit their insistence on wasting dev time with new outfits makes me somewhat less confident now.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[Florete]

4 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

Then I suppose you'll just have to reasonably except that as a quirk of different biases. We all have them.

I mean, I am. I'm not sitting here calling people insane or something for their lower ratings. But I'm still going to point out what I think is flawed logic.

[ThePrimeOne]

8/10. Gatekeeper could unironically be a great pick, DLC or otherwise.

Edited April 12, 2022 by ThePrimeOne

[Dark Holy Elf]

I don't think Gatekeeper is "actually" as popular as Marianne. To some extent I'd liken him to that year a Tetris block won one of those big GameFAQs character contests. A lot of people got on the hype train, but I don't think it really holds up with time. This is arbitrary and may depend on how you define popularity, but that's how I feel.

Marianne is also already playable, already has established fighting styles, has meaningful connections with other characters who are confirmed for the game (e.g. Claude and Hilda), and slides in well whatever system (class sets vs. individual) they end up going for.

So yeah, I'd say Marianne is more likely than Gatekeeper. I think he gets a 7/10 for me. Honestly I had him a bit lower then I remembered DLC, and he's a great fit for that. I'd probably rank him a bit higher if everyone gets a unique design so they can make some silly meme build for him akin to the Summoning Gate, a bit lower if there are class sets since he'd lose a lot of what would make him distinctive (but presumably they could still have fun with his musou attack animation etc.).

Can't say I really care one way or another about him getting in. FE3H has so many characters I actually love that I know I won't be bothered to play anyone just for memes.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Gatekeeper scored a respectable 6.81, skewed down by one outlier.

 

We now have a name for Purple Hair. And Dedue, Flayn, Monica, and Lorenz are confirmed. Because Monica was confirmed separately of Kronya, I will add Kronya to today's characters. Does that make Monica's original score skewed? Yes, but whatever.

 

Day 49 - Nemesis and Kronya

 

Nemesis - 3/10 likelihood as a secret unlockable. 6/10 want. Maybe they could make him work like one of the playable boss characters from Pirate Warriors 4.

 

Kronya - 4/10 likelihood, 3/10 want.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Well, the outlier made the overall score much more realistic than it otherwise would have been.

Honestly, part of me kinda feels like Monica being confirmed as separate from Kronya makes Kronya slightly more likely? I can absolutely see them having Monica vs. Kronya somewhere in the story. But, still, not super likely. 4.5/10

Nemesis, on the other hand...I don't really know what to think about him. I'll give him a 3.5/10

Personal want for both isn't very high. Maybe 3/10, if not lower.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Nemesis could be a pretty fun "secret" and/or "DLC" character. He's built different, and another Sword-of-the-Creator user would be neat to play as. Then again, he might just be one of the enemies. I think a 4 out of 10 is pretty fair for the Liberation-King.

Kronya sits in a tricky spot. We know that "Monica" is in the game, but not if she'll be playable. We also don't know whether she's truly Monica, or Kronya in disguise. She has a great juggalette design, and a personal weapon in Athame. But like the other Agarthans, she could just be an enemy. Let's say 3 out of 10.

[drattakbowser]

[Fabulously Olivier]

Why did Dedue steal Claude's beard? Maybe that's the true inciting incident of the war.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

It's a bit too late now but one consideration we could have had if we'd gotten the new trailer earlier with the confirmation of route splits and picking houses again, is that all students are very likely. If we're picking houses, I don't see them limiting us to 4-5 students a house.

Edited April 12, 2022 by Fire Emblem Fan

[Fabulously Olivier]

1 minute ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

It's a bit too late now but one consideration we could have had if we'd gotten the new trailer earlier with the confirmation of route splits and picking houses again, is that all students are very likely. If we're picking houses, I don't see them limiting us to 4-5 students a house.

It certainly would be weird if even a low budget game like Warriors All Stars had more way more playables per route (8-10 characters) than this game.

 

I'm fully onboard the big roster train here.

[Use the Falchion]

Nemesis is a 5/10 want. I think he'll be in the game just not playable. 

Kronya is a solid 7/10 want with a 3/10 chance. I liked her design and thought she'd be the potential psycho ally defector like Henry in Awakening, but she was a throwaway villain at best. Maybe this game can redeem that. 

[Fabulously Olivier]

Nemesis scores 3.5.

 

Kronya scores 3.63. 

 

We're rating the big bosses

 

Indech (Immovable), who I am giving 1/10 chance, 6/10 want.

 

Macuil (Windcaller), also 1/10 chance, 5/10 want.

 

Aelfric (Umbral Beast), 0/10 chance 1/10 want.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Indech could be our very own "Geriatric Mutant Ninja Turtle", so that's fun. To his credit, he can potentially be fought on every route. But I have no idea how they would design him. Let's say 2 out of 10.

Macuil shows up just on Claude's route, after apparently abandoning humanity. The only way I see him in is if the game includes a "War of Liberation" portion, maybe as DLC. It's not impossible, so again, 2 out of 10.

Aelfric is a simp. Maybe he could get a role if Jeralt and/or Teach's mother are bigger deals this time around. But even then, I don't see him as playable. Easy 1 out of 10.

[Fabulously Olivier]

4 minutes ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

Indech could be our very own "Geriatric Mutant Ninja Turtle", so that's fun. To his credit, he can potentially be fought on every route. But I have no idea how they would design him. Let's say 2 out of 10.

Macuil shows up just on Claude's route, after apparently abandoning humanity. The only way I see him in is if the game includes a "War of Liberation" portion, maybe as DLC. It's not impossible, so again, 2 out of 10.

Aelfric is a simp. Maybe he could get a role if Jeralt and/or Teach's mother are bigger deals this time around. But even then, I don't see him as playable. Easy 1 out of 10.

If you want a crash course in how they could design Nemesis, Macuil, Indech, and the Immaculate One, the best example would be One Piece Pirate Warriors 4 with 3 particular playable characters - Whitebeard, Big Mom, and Kaido. Gameplay videos are worth watching because they're really something. The feeling of playing a boss is distinct even in a franchise like this one where everyone is already overpowered. They're big. They're slow. They feel like playing on Very Easy mode. And I'm very here for it.

[ciphertul]

I’m just gonna throw this in here, I’m fairly certain this is our favorite little shut-in.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Indech, Macuil, and Aelfric all get a 1/10

[ThePrimeOne]

Indech and Macuil being playable in their beast forms like the big characters in Pirate Warriors 4 would be so sick, but I'm sticking with a 5/10 for both.

 

Aelfric is meh all around, so he's a 2/10.

Edited April 13, 2022 by ThePrimeOne

[Seazas]

They all get a 1/10. I could care less about them, too disconnected for my taste and I don't get any value from seeing them be involved unlike Monica.

[Use the Falchion]

Indech and Macuil I can see as being bosses again, so I think a 2/10 is a safe bet. I want to see them as playable DLC though, so I'll give them a 6/10. I think they'd be fun to see in their human forms and then see their supports with Flayn, Seteth, Rhea, and Byleth. Indech indicates that as much as he knows about Flayn, and vice versa, the two never officially met. I'd like to know why. 

 

[Fabulously Olivier]

Indech and Macuil get 2.67.

 

Simplord gets 1.00.

 

I've saved the biggest for last. Today we're rating Rhea.

 

Who I am giving a 9/10 chance. And a 3/10 want.

[Use the Falchion]

Rhea is a 9/10 chance - she's in the base game, has playable stats, and will most likely be playable here. I'll also give her a 9/10 want. I like Rhea as a character. She's basically an older, successful version of Edelgard with different philosophies in a lot of ways to me, so I don't really mind her. I also want to see her have proper supports with Seteth, Flayn, and others. 

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I had thought Sothis might be the single most likely NPC, I forgot about Rhea. Yeah, I absolutely don't see them excluding Rhea from the roster. 9/10

Personal want is about 6.5/10 Edelgard is equally as guilty as Rhea.

[Dark Holy Elf]

9/10 for Rhea. Her not being playable is a slight mark against her, but she's both very popular (particularly for an NPC) and very important.

Want is... reasonably high. Unlike Seteth/Catherine/Gilbert, the rest of the "bad people who are interesting" group, Rhea doesn't actually have supports yet, so I think there's huge potential there, and I also just find Rhea really straight-up interesting. She's one of the characters who symbolizes how much more interesting FE3H is about its main conflict than most other games in the series.

Also she's the highest chance for a playable manakete-type character who is actually fun. Unlike Tiki who was dreadful in her base state, Rhea is a badass even untransformed so I imagine that would translate.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

It's very tricky to grade Rhea without accounting for the recent trailer revelation: that the protagonist and antagonist may have swapped. If the "Ashen Demon" is really an enemy, could Rhea find it in herself to oppose them? Well, she does on CF, so it's not impossible.

Anyway, Rhea's lack of playability is one of the most consistent criticisms leveled against 3H - and the Silver Snow route, in particular. Despite being a major player in the story, she only ever shows up as an enemy or an NPC. Three Hopes could be a chance to fix this, to finally give us a playable Rhea. But will she be playable in the present-day, or the past? In her human form, or as the Immaculate One? It's hard to say just yet. And of course, if they lean too hard on what 3H set up, then playability could elude her yet again.

But I think Rhea's chances are fairly strong this time around. Not having been playable previously, and the unclear narrative function of the Church in the upcoming game, means she's not a shoo-in. Still, I would say a 7 out of 10 rating is appropriate for her.