Three Hopes - Rate their Chances

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

Raphael only gets in if all the students get in. He's, at best, the 7th-most-popular of the Golden Deer. Which is a shame, because he's a himbo who always looks on the bright side of life. Still, I think an "all students from the three houses are playable" scenario is decently likely, so I'll give him a 4 out of 10.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Raphael averages out to 3.71. 

 

Day 4 - Flayn

 

Flayn is my least favorite 3H character. So she gets a personal score of 1/10.

 

But in terms of likelihood? 8/10. I think she'll be the Elise of this game. I'll hate having her there, but she's so popular and important that I'll be stuck with her, and she may even keep out characters I like - namely Linhardt, who shares her Crest/prf item and faces steep in-house competition. Hopefully she'll at least bring Seteth.

 

Edit: Changed from Annette to Flayn, realizing that I skipped Church. And that's why I shouldn't switch these out when my insomnia wakes me up at 3 in the morning.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[ciphertul]

Oh, Flayn she is an odd one isn’t she? I think she has a 7/10 chance of getting in.

I would give her a 5/10 for personal score, I think she is pretty cute but I do find her personality aggravating.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Flayn is one of the most likely church candidates, in my opinion. The only ones who has a higher chance are Seteth and Rhea. If we only get a few of the church/faculty members, I could easily see the group being Rhea, Seteth, Flayn, and Catherine. 8.5/10

[Use the Falchion]

Flayn is definitely getting in the game IMO. She, like Byleth, is a mixture of Church and School in the game. 8.5/10

[vanguard333]

There's zero reason for Flayn to not be playable. She has lots of plot importance, she's a fairly major character, and she has a fair amount of gameplay potential.

Sorry; now that I think about it, she has one reason to not be playable: Seteth forbidding her from being a playable character. But that probably wouldn't stop her anyways.

Overall, 10/10.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

I think Flayn is very realistic. Like, we're more likely to get "half of each house, plus a smattering of Church units" than "all of each house, but no Church units". Flayn is an obvious pick - she's (somewhat) plot-significant, she has a unique background, and she joins for free on every route. Also a nice dynamic with Seteth, who I think is pretty likely as well. Plus, in terms of obvious "Priest/Bishop" candidates, I would only give higher odds to Marianne. I'll give Flayn a solid 7 out of 10.

[Dark Holy Elf]

Bernadetta: 9/10. Bernie does well on every popularity poll, she's come very close to getting a CYL nod. She's the most obvious choice for a (non-Claude) archer in this game to boot. Most likely character discussed so far.

Raphael: 3/10. Only if all students get in.

Flayn: 6/10. Ehhh... she's not that popular, and doesn't have a unique gameplay niche, so it really depends if KT decides to do several church characters for the sake of it. If they do, she and Seteth are first in line (pending what is done with Rhea), and that's enough to get her an okay score, but my mind is boggling that anyone would think she's more likely than Bernadetta.

Huh. This is somewhat anecdotal, but just about every time I see the "Online Activities" pop-ups in the loading screen, Dorothea is at or near the top. Generally above Bernadetta (who, granted, is popular in her own right), which suggests that more people are using Dorothea. Perhaps this has changed since I all-but-stopped playing 3H, though?

Dorothea's still #1 in usage, yes. Dorothea > Lysithea > Petra > Bernie > Felix is the most recent one I've seen.

Agreed with Olivier that some of this has to do with in-game use though... in particular that Dorothea is easier to recruit. Additionally, bad Bernies get benched, while bad Dorotheas have a tendency to get turned into dancers, since she's often considered a lore-wise logical candidate for it (to the point where FEH made her a dancer unit in both her appearances so far). But I do think every non-usage-related poll suggests Bernadetta is the more popular one.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Dark Holy Elf

[Fabulously Olivier]

Flayn averages 7.86.

 

The Ashen Wolves are getting added to the rotation. Include chances of being DLC as chances of being in the game.

 

Day 5 - Yuri

 

Factoring in DLC, I'm giving Yuri an 8/10 score. He's really popular, fits in well as an archer or an assassin, and has connections to much of the cast. 

 

As for my personal want score, easy 10/10. Great character. The most intelligent lord/lord-like character we've ever had, with a vibrant personality to boot.

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

6 hours ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Dorothea's still #1 in usage, yes. Dorothea > Lysithea > Petra > Bernie > Felix is the most recent one I've seen.

Agreed with Olivier that some of this has to do with in-game use though... in particular that Dorothea is easier to recruit. Additionally, bad Bernies get benched, while bad Dorotheas have a tendency to get turned into dancers, since she's often considered a lore-wise logical candidate for it (to the point where FEH made her a dancer unit in both her appearances so far). But I do think every non-usage-related poll suggests Bernadetta is the more popular one.

It's kind of ironic, then, that Bernadetta is the preferred Dancer in LTC contexts, since she's the only candidate who can get the Pass skill. These are all reasonable insights, although IMO getting "Dancer Duty" may be its own expression of favoritism, at least in more casual contexts.

As for Yuri, before any DLC, I'm giving him 5 out of 10. He's slightly more likely than other Ashen Wolves and some main-game students, unless they pull an "All students from the three main houses are in". Keeping DLC in mind, I'll bump him up to a 7 out of 10. One thing that's hurting him is how much the mysterious antagonist looks like him. Having another purple-haired bishonen sword user is... I dunno, redundant? That said, there's a good chance of Ashen Wolves DLC. But on the flip side, the DLC may try to fill in gaps from the "main cast" who were left behind at first release.

[Fabulously Olivier]

27 minutes ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

It's kind of ironic, then, that Bernadetta is the preferred Dancer in LTC contexts, since she's the only candidate who can get the Pass skill. These are all reasonable insights, although IMO getting "Dancer Duty" may be its own expression of favoritism, at least in more casual contexts.

As for Yuri, before any DLC, I'm giving him 5 out of 10. He's slightly more likely than other Ashen Wolves and some main-game students, unless they pull an "All students from the three main houses are in". Keeping DLC in mind, I'll bump him up to a 7 out of 10. One thing that's hurting him is how much the mysterious antagonist looks like him. Having another purple-haired bishonen sword user is... I dunno, redundant? That said, there's a good chance of Ashen Wolves DLC. But on the flip side, the DLC may try to fill in gaps from the "main cast" who were left behind at first release.

Wouldn't that be hysterical if Edgey McFace was Yuri? I mean, Yuri's backstory already has a ridiculous amount of "I am all the things" to it, and adding Chosen One of another god to it just feels in character at this point.

[ciphertul]

For Yuri I would have to give him a 7/10 all thing considered. While my personally score for him is 5/10. He is someone I can take or leave.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Yuri is getting into the game, DLC or otherwise. I see no way he's left out, especially if this is the "golden route" like everyone is saying. He's the fourth house leader, he's popular, he has cast connections, and he can fit well into multiple class types. Yuri is one of the few characters I'm giving a 10/10.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Fire Emblem Fan

[Dark Holy Elf]

I don't really have a great read on Yuri's popularity - I haven't seen much evidence of it overall, but he does do well in CYL... but is this just because he's a good unit in FEH? I definitely don't think he's a lock, though, and to anyone who thinks the Wolves will get equal billing to the other houses, I'll just remind that that the game's subtitle is Three Hopes. I think there's a pretty decent chance the Wolves reprise their role as DLC characters.

I think he's more likely than Raphael, but less likely than Dedue or Bernadetta, just because the Wolves are very deletable from the main story in a way that prominent (Dedue) or popular (Bernie) members of the three houses are not. I agree with @Shanty Pete's 1st Mate and think that scores of 5/10 or 7/10 depending on if DLC is considered make sense (which I guess means you should use 7, given the rules as stated). Obviously all characters rise in likelihood after DLC is considered, but the Wolves rise more.

[Fabulously Olivier]

11 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

I don't really have a great read on Yuri's popularity - I haven't seen much evidence of it overall, but he does do well in CYL... but is this just because he's a good unit in FEH? I definitely don't think he's a lock, though, and to anyone who thinks the Wolves will get equal billing to the other houses, I'll just remind that that the game's subtitle is Three Hopes. I think there's a pretty decent chance the Wolves reprise their role as DLC characters.

I think he's more likely than Raphael, but less likely than Dedue or Bernadetta, just because the Wolves are very deletable from the main story in a way that prominent (Dedue) or popular (Bernie) members of the three houses are not. I agree with @Shanty Pete's 1st Mate and think that scores of 5/10 or 7/10 depending on if DLC is considered make sense (which I guess means you should use 7, given the rules as stated). Obviously all characters rise in likelihood after DLC is considered, but the Wolves rise more.

The rules always include dlc in likelihood. Perhaps that should have been made clear. Making the roster is making the roster, and I didn't feel like complicating the whole process with base roster/dlc roster ratings.

 

I just emphasized here because people would be like "1/10, lol, but maybe dlc" for all of the wolves.

 

(Also, Yuri's popularity in CYL predates his joining FEH as a unit. If anything, most characters go DOWN in votes after being added to FEH in any form).

Edited February 27, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[Dark Holy Elf]

10 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

(Also, Yuri's popularity in CYL predates his joining FEH as a unit. If anything, most characters go DOWN in votes after being added to FEH in any form).

Unless their form is particularly widely-used, like Reinhardt or Nino... and my understanding is Yuri could be the same? I don't play FEH much any more, so correct me if I'm wrong. He might be really popular, but we don't have clear data to say so from CYL, imo, the way we have relatively unbiased numbers on most of the cast from CYL4 (when almost none were in the game yet). He did well in CYL5, but he wasn't in the game yet and obviously people wanted him in, like Dedue (admittedly, since he finished above Dedue, he's almost surely the more popular of the two... but Dedue is sadly not that popular).

Compared to CYL, Yuri feels somewhat less popular in other fandom metrics like AO3 representation (even though male characters usually do better on AO3 relatively) and just general appearances in fanart... I can't produce numbers for the latter obviously, but it feeds into my general feeling. And of course we don't have unbiased usage numbers, or even numbers on how many people even but the Cindered Shadows DLC, to my knowledge. I'm pretty confident he's not as popular as Lysithea/Hilda/Marianne/Bernie/Dorothea/Felix, but I don't have a great read as to whether he's reasonably close behind or quite a ways, e.g. how he compares to someone like Ingrid or Ferdinand. Interested to hear your impressions.

[Fabulously Olivier]

58 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Unless their form is particularly widely-used, like Reinhardt or Nino... and my understanding is Yuri could be the same? I don't play FEH much any more, so correct me if I'm wrong. He might be really popular, but we don't have clear data to say so from CYL, imo, the way we have relatively unbiased numbers on most of the cast from CYL4 (when almost none were in the game yet). He did well in CYL5, but he wasn't in the game yet and obviously people wanted him in, like Dedue (admittedly, since he finished above Dedue, he's almost surely the more popular of the two... but Dedue is sadly not that popular).

Compared to CYL, Yuri feels somewhat less popular in other fandom metrics like AO3 representation (even though male characters usually do better on AO3 relatively) and just general appearances in fanart... I can't produce numbers for the latter obviously, but it feeds into my general feeling. And of course we don't have unbiased usage numbers, or even numbers on how many people even but the Cindered Shadows DLC, to my knowledge. I'm pretty confident he's not as popular as Lysithea/Hilda/Marianne/Bernie/Dorothea/Felix, but I don't have a great read as to whether he's reasonably close behind or quite a ways, e.g. how he compares to someone like Ingrid or Ferdinand. Interested to hear your impressions.

Yuri has placed consistently high before and after being added to FEH. Just being a good unit is not enough to constitute that. It means that he was both highly wanted to be added to the game, and highly wanted for a costume after.

 

We can certainly say from results that he is *substantially* more popular than Ferdinand and Ingrid. Is he as popular as the waifus plus Felix? No. But few characters are.

 

I wouldn't have any unique insight on the matter because I quit Fallen Edelgard Heroes like a year ago, and I'm happier for it.

[Dark Holy Elf]

11 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

We can certainly say from results that he is *substantially* more popular than Ferdinand and Ingrid.

I don't think we can, not with certainty. One way to look at it: In CYL4, Ferdinand finished with 31% more votes than Dedue while Ingrid finished with 57% more (a fair comparison, as none were in the game yet). Then, in CYL5, Yuri finished with 36% more votes than Dedue (a fair comparison, since neither was in the game yet). That doesn't speak to any large gaps between them. CYL6 is definitely the best data point in Yuri's favour, but it's also past the point where truly fair comparisons can be made. His result was impressive there, and I'll grant it could mean he's become more popular while they've fallen off... but I think we have ample evidence that FEH meta worth definitely plays a role in long-term CYL strength, it's just a question of how much.

Looking at all that, I don't think you can say that the evidence is conclusive. Especially when this evidence is not, to my knowledge, corroborated by other sources (if you know any, feel free to bring 'em up; I won't pretend my knowledge of the fandom is exhaustive) and contradicted by others (AO3 for one I'm definitely aware of).

That said, perhaps a nebulous idea of underlying popularity is irrelevant here. The question is how KT will be judging popularity (assuming they consider popularity a factor in who to choose, which I consider a very safe assumption if we get anything less than the full roster). If they just use CYL results (possible?) then yeah Yuri's got a good chance.

35 minutes ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

Is he as popular as the waifus plus Felix?

Please don't take this the wrong way, but I do feel obligated to speak up... I think that "waifu" is a very reductive term to apply to a group of popular characters, popular for very different reasons, just because they all happen to be female. I know we're talking about fictional characters here, but it still feels disrespectful. That word is not associated with particularly nice sentiments in this fandom.

[Fabulously Olivier]

17 minutes ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

Please don't take this the wrong way, but I do feel obligated to speak up... I think that "waifu" is a very reductive term to apply to a group of popular characters, popular for very different reasons, just because they all happen to be female. I know we're talking about fictional characters here, but it still feels disrespectful. That word is not associated with particularly nice sentiments in this fandom.

Well, with respect, with FEH - a game that openly reduces characters to fanservice on a regular basis - being the primary metric of popularity for characters, these kinds of connotations are inevitable. 

 

Suffice it to say that I agree that they all have different appeals and personalities. But "ladies and angeryman" has quite a different ring, doesn't it?

[Shanty Pete's 1st Mate]

6 hours ago, Fabulously Olivier said:

Wouldn't that be hysterical if Edgey McFace was Yuri? I mean, Yuri's backstory already has a ridiculous amount of "I am all the things" to it, and adding Chosen One of another god to it just feels in character at this point.

Well we don't much about the antagonist yet, so I suppose it can't be ruled out. My guess is that he's a character original to Three Hopes with some Agarthan connections. 

3 hours ago, Dark Holy Elf said:

 

I think he's more likely than Raphael, but less likely than Dedue or Bernadetta, just because the Wolves are very deletable from the main story in a way that prominent (Dedue) or popular (Bernie) members of the three houses are not. I agree with @Shanty Pete's 1st Mate and think that scores of 5/10 or 7/10 depending on if DLC is considered make sense (which I guess means you should use 7, given the rules as stated). Obviously all characters rise in likelihood after DLC is considered, but the Wolves rise more.

Thanks!

One assertion I would make - likely exposing myself as a Warriors outsider - is that there's no guarantee this game will even have DLC. Now, given the current market and the series'precedents, I think it's extraordinarily likely to happen. Let's say a 9 out of 10, if not higher. But there are any number of reasons we might not get DLC - maybe the game dramatically underperforms expectations, so producing DLC isn't worth it. Maybe they need the team to get right to work on a different project. Heck, maybe Koei Tecmo gets bought out, and their team scattered. Point is, a character who is "coming in the DLC, for sure" is, by the very nature of DLC, inherently less likely to be in the game than a character we're certain will be in the base game.

Also, making a DLC that's just the same characters as the base game DLC would be very unimaginative, in my opinion. I like the characters, sure, particularly Balthis and Hapi, but players who didn't buy Three Houses' own DLC will probably have less affection for them than for base game 3H characters excluded from Three Hopes' initial roster.

[Fabulously Olivier]

3 minutes ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

Well we don't much about the antagonist yet, so I suppose it can't be ruled out. My guess is that he's a character original to Three Hopes with some Agarthan connections. 

Thanks!

One assertion I would make - likely exposing myself as a Warriors outsider - is that there's no guarantee this game will even have DLC. Now, given the current market and the series'precedents, I think it's extraordinarily likely to happen. Let's say a 9 out of 10, if not higher. But there are any number of reasons we might not get DLC - maybe the game dramatically underperforms expectations, so producing DLC isn't worth it. Maybe they need the team to get right to work on a different project. Heck, maybe Koei Tecmo gets bought out, and their team scattered. Point is, a character who is "coming in the DLC, for sure" is, by the very nature of DLC, inherently less likely to be in the game than a character we're certain will be in the base game.

Also, making a DLC that's just the same characters as the base game DLC would be very unimaginative, in my opinion. I like the characters, sure, particularly Balthis and Hapi, but players who didn't buy Three Houses' own DLC will probably have less affection for them than for base game 3H characters excluded from Three Hopes' initial roster.

Koei Tecmo loves DLC. Mainline Warriors games are absolutely filled with it. Spinoffs usually have planned dlc support as well with two notable exceptions - Persona 5 Strikers which isn't a Warriors game so much as a canon action RPG, and Age of Calamity which got DLC but apparently wasn't originally intended to.

 

I'd say the odds of Koei being bought out are low given how overvalued their stock apparently is, but if anyone does do so, it would likely be Nintendo themselves, since Nintendo acquisitions are almost always defensive, with existing partner studios. Which I think we could very much consider Koei to be a MonolithSoft-esque support studio now.

[vanguard333]

Yuri... I have no idea.

I have to remove a lot of points for him being Three Houses DLC. The Persona 5 Golden characters weren't in Strikers, and I doubt that the Three Houses DLC characters will be in Three Hopes. Characters that were added later have far less chance of appearing in Three Hopes simply because of development time. If he does appear, it will be as DLC, fittingly enough.

Other than that, I never actually played the DLC, so I have no idea what he could add. I understand that it's essentially a non-important side-story that takes place in the sewers though, so that makes him even less likely: zero plot importance.

Overall, 1/10 for being playable in the main game, and probably 7/10 for being playable later as DLC.

[Fabulously Olivier]

Yuri averages out to 7.86.

 

Day 6 - Annette

 

For re-emphasis, all scores are total roster scores - base and dlc. If you make the roster, you make the roster.

 

Anyway, Annette is one I struggled with. I think she ranks below her more plot-important bff, but still has decent odds. I'm going to go with 6/10. If she doesn't make base, she'll probably be dlc.

 

As for want score, 7/10. Annette's got a great personality, one of the best timeskip designs, and a lot of potential to be a hammer-wielding mage. Kind of the Lissa of this game.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Fabulously Olivier

[ciphertul]

I’m gonna give her a 5/10, I see her more as a mage and she has stiff competition in that category. She also needs Gilbert to real make a plot point and well we aren’t to him yet.

Personally as stated above I only give her a 4/10 own my own score.

[Use the Falchion]

Annette is a solid 7/10. I'd probably put her at a 7.75/10 or higher, since she seems to be well-liked but not as popular as the "well-liked and good unit" characters. Her problem is that Dedue is already an axe-user, and that both she and Mercedes would have to duke it out for "magic weapon" user if there's only one per class since Ashe is the regular bow-user. Sure, Mercedes can go pure magic, but it also wouldn't be fair to have her be the only character who has a combat Relic and doesn't use it. Still, people love her singing, and she softens Felix's personality (and has cute supports with just about everyone but her father), so I think she'll make it.