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DefyingFates

Engage (most likely) won't be eligible for CYL 7; do you think it'll dominate CYL 8?

Will it?  

17 members have voted

  1. 1. Will it?

    • Engage will still be a hot topic (3/4 winners).
    • Engage will still be on everyone's minds (2 winners).
    • The hype will have died down (0/1 winner).
      0


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CYL usually starts around the 18th of January while Engage releases on the 20th. While I guess it's possible IS will delay CYL just to include them, this means Engage's cast won't be on the voting lists. We all know what happened with CYL 4 and 5 (and even 6 to a degree): do you think Engage will dominate 2024's CYL instead, or will a year's time passing cool off the Engage mania and lead to a more balanced roster (even if that's something like CYL 5)?

CYL 4 was... contentious to put it mildly, and with just how close Engage releases compared to when CYL starts it got me thinking how much power recency bias would have. A year's time would likely decrease the number of non-players voting in droves just because they found an event featuring their new best boys/ girls on the internet, for example.

I'd love to hear what you all think! I don't want to cause any arguments about CYL 4 or anything: as I said, I was just curious how the fandom would feel after an almost full year passes. Thanks for your time!

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Impossible to say IMO, since it depends on the fanbase's reception to the game. I don't feel like it's been great so far, so as of right this second I'm not expecting domination. That can easily change as more info becomes available. I think Three Houses reception improved considerably between its first announcement and the first time it was eligible for CYL.

I do think that if this game leans heavilly on past FEs that will limit the popularity of its new characters somewhat, see how FEH itself still hasn't had its main characters win CYL (or even come that close?) despite the fact that CYL voters naturally have the highest overlap with FEH players. Veronica did win a place, admittedly, but even then, I wouldn't call that domination. If Engage ends up standing mostly on its own for story/characters, that'll help it in CYL, I think.

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I definitely think there's going to be 2 winners from Engaged. But, I definitely wondered if one of the non-Engaged Winners is going to be from Three Houses since there had been Three Houses winners in CYL Polls recently. But, since Engage is going to be little bit different from Three Houses. I definitely feel like there could be more than 2 Winners after CYL8.

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7 hours ago, King Marth 64 said:

But, since Engage is going to be little bit different from Three Houses.

What do you mean by this? Are you referring to how there's going to be a focus on returning Emblems (hopefully along with fleshing out a new cast)?

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It's too far out there and too soon for me to really guess at this, myself, but recency bias is a thing (and not even a bad thing.) So, while I'm not sure how to vote on the poll since we've only really gotten 1 widespread trailer as of yet (making it difficult to predict what people will feel after we get more info) and the event itself is so far off (making it difficult to predict what people will feel about voting specifically, not to mention character popularity), I think that it's safe to say that recency bias will play a role here (as will whatever influx of new players/attention from people new to the franchise Heroes will get (versus the inverse factor of people who don't care to pay attention to Heroes and would rather focus on the new games entirely) by that time, which will also affect things.) Basically, though we know how to generally measure it to get the answer to the question, we just don't have the numbers to measure yet. And that's the best of an opinion that I can offer on the topic at present.

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Personally, I don’t expect them to include Engage characters in CYL 7, because even if they delayed CYL it would be hard for people to bond with the characters (don’t forget 3H released in summer, so by January people had had the time to get attached to that cast). I’m not too bothered by it (Lord knows Leo and Dorothea don’t need other people to overshadow them), but I do think Three Hopes might cause a Fodlan resurgence for CYL 7.

There’s also the possibility (though small it may be) that the leaked FE4 remake is also announced (or something about it leaks, which is more likely), which might spur people to vote for units like Arvis, Sigurd, Lewyn or Ayra (not because of the remake itself, but because they’ll probably advertise it in FEH through banners and such).

Edited by Goddess Serra

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Too early to tell.

I think it's uncontroversial to say that at least part of the popularity of Three Houses characters in CYL came from

  1. Three Houses being a very well-liked game and
  2. Three Houses having a pretty strong focus on its dating sim element, which forces the writers to flesh out more characters, increases the chances that a player will have a character they like, and makes it more likely that the player will use more votes on said character.

I don't think they'd include Engage in CYL 7 due to the fact that players literally would not have had a chance to have even played the game yet. That would mean a full one year delay between Engage's release and the first CYL that it participates in, which will certainly have a cooling off effect on it. Whether or not it will be able to weather that delay I think would depend almost entirely on how well received the game is.

I think Engage will probably still be able to get at least 2 characters in CYL 8, though, even if its reception after launch is still a bit lukewarm.

 

 

Meanwhile, I just want Mika Pikazo to do some art for Heroes. She's one of my favorite artists, up there with Fuzichoco, who as already done art for this game. (Now that I think about it, Fuzichoco doing a seasonal Ymir would probably be amazing.)

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2 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

I think Engage will probably still be able to get at least 2 characters in CYL 8, though, even if its reception after launch is still a bit lukewarm.

Yeah, this is where my head is at too. There's still going to be some recency bias going into CYL 8 after all, not to mention newcomers to the series thanks to Engage.

2 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

Meanwhile, I just want Mika Pikazo to do some art for Heroes. She's one of my favorite artists, up there with Fuzichoco, who as already done art for this game.

Her Engage artwork is incredible and she seems really passionate about FE too, so I'd love to see her as well! I wouldn't be surprised if we get an Engage banner in December/ January, so hopefully she'll make her debut then!

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21 hours ago, DefyingFates said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we get an Engage banner in December/ January, so hopefully she'll make her debut then!

I expect an Engage banner around the release date of the game. Maybe doing like what they did with Three Houses and releasing a bonus for people who buy the game to get a 5* Hero.

It could even be in February, so people can have some time to get attached to those characters before releasing a banner with them.

We got 4 games releasing during FEH's lifetime:

  • In April 14th 2017 we got the Word of Shadows banner, with units from FE Echoes: Shadows of Valentia, game that would release in Japan in April 20th 2017.  In the following month we got the Rite of Shadows banner in May 15th 2017, which released near the international release of Echoes: Shadows of Valentia that happened in May 17th 2017.
  • In June 22nd 2019 we got the Three Houses banner, with units from... well... FE Three Houses, game that would release in July 26th 2019 worldwide.
  • In January 20th 2020 we got the A Star Is Born banner, with units from Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE Encore, game released in January 17th 2020.
  • In September 16th 2022 we got the New Heroes & Rearmed Líf banner, with units from FE Warriors: Three Hopes, game released in  June 24th 2022.

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42 minutes ago, Diovani Bressan said:

In September 16th 2022 we got the New Heroes & Rearmed Líf banner, with units from FE Warriors: Three Hopes, game released in  June 24th 2022.

Awkward xD

42 minutes ago, Diovani Bressan said:

I expect an Engage banner around the release date of the game. Maybe doing like what they did with Three Houses and releasing a bonus for people who buy the game to get a 5* Hero.

I fully expect both of those things, and would be surprised if we didn't get the latter given this is a mainline entry. I guess this means both Alears will have Liberation in FEH then, unless we get a Shez situation where both versions get completely different Prf weapons (which I thought was neat, even if it meant one was using "non-canon" gear).

42 minutes ago, Diovani Bressan said:
  • In April 14th 2017 we got the Word of Shadows banner, with units from FE Echoes: Shadows of Valentia, game that would release in Japan in April 20th 2017.  In the following month we got the Rite of Shadows banner in May 15th 2017, which released near the international release of Echoes: Shadows of Valentia that happened in May 17th 2017.
  • In June 22nd 2019 we got the Three Houses banner, with units from... well... FE Three Houses, game that would release in July 26th 2019 worldwide.
  • In January 20th 2020 we got the A Star Is Born banner, with units from Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE Encore, game released in January 17th 2020.

It depends on FEH's calendar for expected banner releases, but I expect an Engage banner in January too - maybe even in December if they want to give people a chance to actually try the FEH variants out and maybe pre-order Engage before Engage steals everyone's time away. They could even include the free Alear in that update and add them to the pool after Jan 20th, kind of like NY!Corrin's treatment way back in 2017/18.

Edited by DefyingFates

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I think we can expect some recency bias to emerge once Engage comes out. Though hypothetically the Persona lords might deprive the Engage cast of enough screentime to put them at a disadvantage in terms of character and popularity.

Speaking of CYL. The one who must dominate this year is Alios. Not in Heroes, and also not in Three Hopes. Us Alois fans have been oppressed and marginalized for too long! Lets rise up and storm Alois to number one with our torches and pitchforks!

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I think the timing of the game's release with the start of the CYL is going to be the deciding factor here. I wouldn't put it past IS to include the characters of Engage in the poll since at this point I am not surprised by anything IS does anymore and we should not expect them to say "no" to anything, although it would be far too awkward to have characters from a game that hasn't even released yet on the poll so I think reason will prevail here.

I think the mentality of most players coming into the next CYL will be to vote for their favorites because by now we have weathered out the storm of absolute favorites of the series, such as Edelgard, Ike, and Micaiah. I don't know how many lords remain and although being a lord doesn't necessarily mean the character is guranteed popularity, I would imagine the avatars like the Robins and Shezes will be up there on the polls, and I am personally in shock that Azura and F!Corrin have not won a CYL yet (do Ryoma and Xander have no fans? lol). Three Hopes will have bolstered a perhaps weakened support for Three House characters like Bernadetta so I expect one if not two winners from that series. So yeah, i expect the popularity vacuum left behind by the most popular characters to give the fans of less popular ones the chance they need to come together and push their favorites through. Perhaps we'll get Sigurd this time. But i would personally love to see a character like Tibarn or Larachel to win a spot in the next one out of absolutely nowhere lol.

Ultimately, it's hard to imagine how much appeal Engage will have.All I know about it is the faces of the avatars, and that did not leave a good first impression to me. It's pretty much a heroes game on switch and that seems to make it a very different type of game from the rest of series, or at least the part of the series i know. We'll see how much the dating/boding mechanics can do for the games popularity, if we get any at all. I'll be shocked if it doesn't make it to the game, as it seems to be one of the fundamental pillars on which the modern series stands today. But i'll say, no Engage for CYL7.

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13 hours ago, Etrurian emperor said:

Speaking of CYL. The one who must dominate this year is Alios. Not in Heroes, and also not in Three Hopes. Us Alois fans have been oppressed and marginalized for too long! Lets rise up and storm Alois to number one with our torches and pitchforks!

Alois ranked 248, 237 and 249 in the previous 3 events, with not even 1,000 votes (he got 560 votes in CYL 4, and around 360 in the others two)... For him to even reach top 20 male division, will take a lot (Xander, CYL 6 rank 20 male character, got 1,979 votes) . And if he reaches top 10, I will say that bots were involved on it.

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2 hours ago, Diovani Bressan said:

I will say that bots were involved on it.

Which has happened before, to be fair. And there was someone who claimed to have run bots in CYL 5 too (even after the added verification), but I don't know if that was completely proven or not beyond someone on twitter saying the code sample shown looked legitimate.

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21 hours ago, Diovani Bressan said:

We got 4 games releasing during FEH's lifetime:

I know it got nothing except for some bonus maps in FEH, but the original FE Warriors was released after FEH so that number should be five.

1 hour ago, DefyingFates said:

Which has happened before, to be fair. And there was someone who claimed to have run bots in CYL 5 too (even after the added verification), but I don't know if that was completely proven or not beyond someone on twitter saying the code sample shown looked legitimate.

I’d like to take this moment to point out that Sonia (the FE7 morph) went up 21 places in CYL6 which coincidentally got her rank 69th compared to CYL5 and got more votes in 6 too. Keep in mind, Sonia was in FEH itself by CYL6.

I’m pretty sure something like that doesn’t happen without something sketchy going on (like bots). And to compare Sonia to a similar character, Selena (Fluorspar) got to 42nd in CYL4 but then cratered to 396th in CYL5 (after she got added to FEH).

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4 minutes ago, Tybrosion said:

I know it got nothing except for some bonus maps in FEH, but the original FE Warriors was released after FEH so that number should be five.

 

I actually forgot about Fire Emblem Warriors, mostly because of what you said: it only got the specials maps. My bad.

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3 hours ago, Tybrosion said:

And to compare Sonia to a similar character, Selena (Fluorspar) got to 42nd in CYL4 but then cratered to 396th in CYL5 (after she got added to FEH).

Oh wow... yeah, that was definitely the work of bots. Poor Selena though!

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17 hours ago, Sil/phire said:

I think the mentality of most players coming into the next CYL will be to vote for their favorites because by now we have weathered out the storm of absolute favorites of the series, such as Edelgard, Ike, and Micaiah. I don't know how many lords remain and although being a lord doesn't necessarily mean the character is guranteed popularity, I would imagine the avatars like the Robins and Shezes will be up there on the polls, and I am personally in shock that Azura and F!Corrin have not won a CYL yet (do Ryoma and Xander have no fans? lol).

If you wonder, the characters that are considered without a doubt lords that haven't won yet are Sigurd, Leif, Corrin (both) and Byleth (male).

For more bordeline cases we're also missing Elincia, Robin (both) and Azura.

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4 hours ago, Troykv said:

If you wonder, the characters that are considered without a doubt lords that haven't won yet are Sigurd, Leif, Corrin (both) and Byleth (male).

For more bordeline cases we're also missing Elincia, Robin (both) and Azura.

I believe Leif is the least voted of those you mentioned. Even Alfonse and Itsuki ranked higher than him.

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On 9/23/2022 at 12:22 AM, Etrurian emperor said:

I think we can expect some recency bias to emerge once Engage comes out. Though hypothetically the Persona lords might deprive the Engage cast of enough screentime to put them at a disadvantage in terms of character and popularity.

Speaking of CYL. The one who must dominate this year is Alios. Not in Heroes, and also not in Three Hopes. Us Alois fans have been oppressed and marginalized for too long! Lets rise up and storm Alois to number one with our torches and pitchforks!

Well that second paragraph was unexpected. I agree with @Diovani Bressan that it would take botting to see him crack even just the top 100, but I would be SO happy. To be honest, I was hoping he would release before CYL, but I guess chances of that are very low at this point, seeing how we just got a Three Hopes banner (meaning we’re probably not getting another Fódlan NH banner until next year, and January’s NH is very likely going to be Engage). Guess I’ll be voting for him yet again. Sorry Dorothea, hope I didn’t compromise your victory.

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On 9/22/2022 at 7:22 PM, Etrurian emperor said:

I think we can expect some recency bias to emerge once Engage comes out. Though hypothetically the Persona lords might deprive the Engage cast of enough screentime to put them at a disadvantage in terms of character and popularity.

Speaking of CYL. The one who must dominate this year is Alios. Not in Heroes, and also not in Three Hopes. Us Alois fans have been oppressed and marginalized for too long! Lets rise up and storm Alois to number one with our torches and pitchforks!

I'd vote on him if there's a rally for him to win like with gatekeeper. It would be funner than some boring choices like 84484884 lord. 

 

It think Sigurd and Leif are yet to win, as it concerned  regarding the main non avatar lord's, and Engage can put a light to them. There's also Elincia and the avatars, and after that things will get way more interesting. 

Edited by genesis

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Does anyone know how the Gatekeeper rallying began? I know he’s one of the biggest memes ever, but I’d imagine there was a bit of botting involved.

Speaking of memes, I just thought of Ferdinand. How likely is he to win CYL? It would be a good way to honor Billy Kametz, but at the same time, he wouldn’t have the same voice actor.

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I don't expect Engage to be in CYL 7, just because of how close its release will be to CYL 7, but I do still expect it to have a significant presence in CYL 8. I expect the hype (if there is any) will have died down a bit, but I still expect a fair amount of recency bias. I'd think CYL 8 would probably see two Engage winners. The only things that might prevent that from happening is a Genealogy of the Holy War remake, or another Three Houses rally due to Three Hopes characters being added.

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23 hours ago, Goddess Serra said:

Does anyone know how the Gatekeeper rallying began? I know he’s one of the biggest memes ever, but I’d imagine there was a bit of botting involved.

I think no one expected him to be a voting option, because in CYL 4 he was not there. When people saw that a nameless NPC that people kinda like was a voting option, they went all in... especially when in the interim results released Gatekeeper was in 2nd place, so the votes for him increased to keep him in the top 2.

I think something like that happened in CYL 2. Veronica was in 5th place in the interim results, so when people saw she had a chance they went all in on her and made her 2nd place of that year's event.

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On 10/4/2022 at 2:31 PM, Goddess Serra said:

Does anyone know how the Gatekeeper rallying began? I know he’s one of the biggest memes ever, but I’d imagine there was a bit of botting involved.

7 hours ago, Diovani Bressan said:

I think no one expected him to be a voting option, because in CYL 4 he was not there. When people saw that a nameless NPC that people kinda like was a voting option, they went all in... especially when in the interim results released Gatekeeper was in 2nd place, so the votes for him increased to keep him in the top 2.

I'm not really convinced that botting played a significant factor.

I haven't played Three Houses, but my friends who have all had only good things to say about him. So while he was a meme pick, he does seem to also be a well-liked character. Not "popular" enough to win a CYL, but the combination of being legitimately well-liked on top of being a meme character and a character that is normally not playable (like Veronica) seems like enough to make up for it.

This is in contrast to previous characters that got meme votes that only had their meme cred to stand on.

Edited by Ice Dragon

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