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Dire Thunder is not as good as you think


haarhaarhaar
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I've seen a few people here and elsewhere talking about how great the Olwen S-rank bond ring is because of its Dire Thunder ability, which allows a unit on Player Phase to attack twice with Thunder. It definitely sounds strong, and I was interested to see how it played. However, after getting the ring and looking at the numbers, I don't think it's nearly as good as it seems, and doesn't deserve to define the early meta around bond rings. Below, I'm going to make the case for why.

TL;DR Dire Thunder isn't worth the effort, you're better off getting a Thoron. 

Section 1 - Rigging Bond Rings

People have already noted on these forums that the order of bond rings in the Bond Ring Gacha is fixed. No amount of save-scumming after a battle will change what rings are pulled from the gacha, or the order in which they come. The order of ring rarity does not change even if you change the emblem that you're pulling rings from. So if you've pulled a B-rank ring, then two C-ranks, this order won't change, whether the three rings all come from Marth, or the first comes from Marth and the next two from Sigurd. 

However, there are ways to manipulate this order. The one that has been most discussed is combat. Apparently, every enemy you kill moves forward the ring order by one - I haven't personally confirmed this, but it makes sense and evidence of this is on YT etc. I can also confirm that raising Bond Levels in the Arena changes the order. Specifically, for every Bond Level you raise, the order moves forward by one. So if you raise Clanne's bond with Marth from Level 1 to Level 5, the ring order will move forward by 4. This latter method is less time-consuming than combat, but requires the expenditure of bond fragments at an equal or higher rate than the gacha, meaning it's far less resource-optimal. 

Onto Olwen specifically (mild spoilers below): 

Spoiler

The Olwen S-rank ring belongs to Leif, who first becomes available after Ch. 8. However, he leaves your army directly after the Ch 10 story battle, and only rejoins after the Ch 17 story battle. This means that the first time you get Leif, you only have a limited window (as few as two Somniel trips) to pick up Dire Thunder before it's gone for another big chunk of the game. 

When Leif first becomes available in the Somniel, Maddening players aren't likely to have more than 15,000 bond fragments or so (maybe more or less depending on DLC, donations, and how many you spend on bond levels and rings). Which amounts to 150 rings, if you're willing to spend everything for Olwen. I don't know what the S-rank ring appearance rates are, and there will obviously be big differences in personal experience, but it's clear you don't have a lot of time or leeway in which to pick up the ring before the spoiler thing.

While online trials count as combats for the purpose of moving the ring order forwards, only the ones requiring a NSO subscription (Relay/Outrealm) are available when Leif first arrives, and even with the DLC these will be difficult to cheese and are inefficient at providing enemies to kill. A significant investment of player time would be required to move the ring order forwards, with little-to-no guarantee of acquiring Olwen at all, let alone at reasonable cost. 

Section 2 - Olwen Again

After the spoiler thing, Olwen becomes available only once significant time in-game has passed. In fact, the possibility of getting him again arrives one story chapter before a free Thoron. Given this, it'll be fruitful to compare Dire Thunder with Thoron at this point. 

To optimise Dire Thunder, you want to fully forge up a Thunder tome, and likely add the Ike/Hector engraving to it (highest Mt boost of engravings so far). The cost of creating this is 150 Iron Ingots, 50 Steel Ingots, 5 Silver Ingots, 7500G and 100 bond frags. The money in particular is a significant cost on Maddening, but hopefully you have enough stocked up. Still, you'll get a Thunder with 13 Mt and 90 Hit, which can hit twice with Dire Thunder. 

On the other hand, the Thoron you get for free can be forged to a Thoron+3 for 9 Silver Ingots, 3500G, and 400 bond frags for the engraving. If you have the resources to make the Thunder above, then you can exchange the Iron/Steel Ingots used there for Silver and have metals/money left over after you've made the Thoron. This tome will have 24 Mt and 75 Hit. 

When everything else is equal, Dire Thunder should deal more damage than Thoron. However, this isn't how it works out in practice. There are two reasons.

  1. Enemy resistance. For Dire Thunder to deal more damage than Thoron when the Mag stat is constant, the mage must deal 12 damage with a single thunder attack. This should always be possible for certain enemy types like armoured units, but won't be possible for many others. Mages, dragons, many story bosses and even some normal enemies with solid Res will suffer less than 12 damage against Thunder at this point in the game - and that's assuming you're using a canon mage with decent-to-high base Mag (good luck Celine/Clanne). For enemies with really strong Res, even the fully boosted Thunder and a decent Mag stat will deal little-to-no damage, whereas Thoron and the same Mag stat will likely deal some damage for a while yet.
  2. The Thoron user can equip an Emblem. Olwen can only boost magic by +1, but Byleth, Corrin and Eirika can all do better, as well as boosting other stats to a higher degree and having abilities that synergise decently with certain mage builds. Camilla and Soren too. So the threshold for Dire Thunder to outdamage Thoron should be higher than 12 points of true damage, and the Thoron user could also fulfil another niche in your army while they're at it.

At least some of this, you could argue, is mitigated by Thunder's superior accuracy and Engage's hit rate system. Displayed hit rates of 50+ are not true hit rates (here's the table I've been using for them if interested: https://fireemblemwiki.org/wiki/True_hit). So, depending on your base hit rate, the true hit rate difference between the two tomes here could be as much as 22% on one attack. Which means it's certainly true that Dire Thunder allows for a much higher chance of dealing non-zero damage from a turn, and sometimes that's all you need - any damage is good damage. But when we consider the likelihood of Dire Thunder landing twice, compared to Thoron once, you're somewhere between 1-10% more likely (depending on base hit rate) for Dire Thunder to land twice. There's also the consideration of inherited/personal/class abilities which benefit more from doubling with Thunder than singular Thoron, such as Resonance or Lindon's personal. They exist - but they're limited and often high-cost for inheritance. You could build around them, but I'd be impressed to see a skill combination that massively elevates the Dire Thunder build. 

Those are still advantages not to be ignored - but remember the costs laid out above, and the scenarios in which Dire Thunder is strictly worse than Thoron. You're spending time (both in-game and real world), an extra 4000G when money may be tight, as well as potentially lots of bond fragments for the opportunity to boost hit rates somewhat, and boost damage against enemies you can already hurt significantly (perhaps with other tomes). 

Section 3 - Olwen Straightaway

What about the lucky few who get Olwen immediately, or near-immediately after Leif arrives?

Remember, our cost for a fully souped-up Thunder is 150 Iron Ingots, 50 Steel Ingots, 5 Silver Ingots, 7500G and 100 bond frags. Which is possible at this stage, although fairly demanding for when you first get Thunder. I suppose you don't immediately have to spring for the +5 upgrade, but we'll keep this as the comparison because it's Dire Thunder at its most effective.

In comparison, if you bought a Thunder tome (without Silver Card) from the shop and forged it up to an engraved Thoron+2, you'd spend 200 Iron Ingots, 20 Steel Ingots, 5 Silver Ingots, 6000G and 400 bond frags. Again, if you had the resources on hand for the Thunder above, you'd have the resources to make this Thoron and still have a bit left over. This Thoron has 23 Mt and 75 Hit (22 Mt without the DLC, but then the Thunder tome would also have 12 Mt). 

Damage-wise, Dire Thunder comes out better at this stage of the game than it does later on. Fewer enemies possess Res stats that make Thunder useless, even when the unit's Mag isn't that impressive. Furthermore,

Spoiler

You have no Magic-boosting emblems without the DLC from Ch. 11 to after the Ch. 14 story battle, eliminating an advantage of Thoron during this period. You can still give your Thoron user a bond ring - if you're lucky, you might even have one that gives +2 Mag. But that isn't necessarily going to be available. 

However, Dire Thunder's hit advantage is also weakened, as fewer enemies (in fact, I can't recall any) have the Avo to reliably dodge a Mystical unit in the midgame. And your total resources increase relatively dramatically over this part of the game, allowing you to potentially forge up your Thoron further. You're unlikely to hit Thoron+5 for a while after Dire Thunder becomes available, but you should definitely have the resources for it by the end of Ch. 14 at the latest. And your Thoron will still hit very hard all through this period. 

It requires a lot of luck, with little possibility for manipulation, to get Olwen this early. And while the benefits of Dire Thunder are at their most impressive early on, using Thoron won't leave you much behind Dire Thunder. If you use a hit engraving on Thoron instead, it'll still be competitive damage for the midgame, while outpacing Dire Thunder later on.

Anyway, there's my case. Dire Thunder isn't necessarily bad, but it is overrated. Thinking long-term, you're better off with Thoron. Is there anything I've missed?

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24 minutes ago, haarhaarhaar said:

Section 1 - Rigging Bond Rings

I am reading along, and am interested in the part where you get to the bond ring's effect, but this first section leaves me with the impression that you do not have a full understanding of how much we can manipulate the bond rings. 

Actually getting the Dire Thunder is trivial, but a little tedious. You can get it, or any other ring, in about 5-10 mins only spending enough bond fragments for a single 10 ring pull. I have done it personally multiple times across multiple playthroughs. 

I made a post a while back walking through the most efficient way to do it 

 

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45 minutes ago, haarhaarhaar said:

Anyway, there's my case. Dire Thunder isn't necessarily bad, but it is overrated. Thinking long-term, you're better off with Thoron. Is there anything I've missed?

 

I think that you have hit a key note, which is that Dire Thunder's efficacy is limited on high resistance enemies. But I think that your conclusion that it is over rated is flawed. 

If you get it, it is your single best enemy killing tool for a substantial portion of the game, and likely your most consistent way to one round over half of all units on any given map. You are correct that doing so offers less utility compared to the Emblem rings, but for most maps of the game you do not have enough to even go around - so having an optimized damage dealer not require one is a plus for the ring. 

I ran some numbers a while back, and on Chapter 17 (was just arbitrarily where I was at the time)  If my Citrinne had Dire Thunder, she did more damage then Thoron +great thunder on almost every normal enemy (excludes a couple mages), whole Great Thunder wins against almost every boss/wyrm (excluding Marni). Both of those options were substantially more damage then if Citrinne had an actual Emblem Ring. 

This is a general trend that holds true for several more chapters, before enemy stats just hit the point that you would do more with Great Thunder against most enemies except Generals. 

If you are optimizing for a nuking character (say Citrinne) then the best thing that you can do likely Dire Thunder early/mid game -> Great Thunder for the end game. 
 

Edited by LukeB
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Place Dire thunder on Ivy or Celine. With their personal class skill procs, it hits hard. You can also put the heaviest engraves for max damage and still double. 

I feel you are misusing it perhaps? It is for sure worth farming (assuming you know how to get it guaranteed). 

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Quote

To optimise Dire Thunder, you want to fully forge up a Thunder tome, and likely add the Ike/Hector engraving to it (highest Mt boost of engravings so far). The cost of creating this is 150 Iron Ingots, 50 Steel Ingots, 5 Silver Ingots, 7500G and 100 bond frags. The money in particular is a significant cost on Maddening, but hopefully you have enough stocked up. Still, you'll get a Thunder with 13 Mt and 90 Hit, which can hit twice with Dire Thunder.

Dire Thunder allows Thunder to one shot a lot of enemies in Maddening without spending all of these resources. It starts to fall off as enemies start to get better resistance stats and the player has access to more resources, but a an Ike/Roy engrave with at most a +3 is all I would suggest spending on it. It's not really meant to be used later on in the game though; you asked about what you missed, and outside of what LukeB mentioned this is what I would point to.

Quote

Which means it's certainly true that Dire Thunder allows for a much higher chance of dealing non-zero damage from a turn, and sometimes that's all you need - any damage is good damage. But when we consider the likelihood of Dire Thunder landing twice, compared to Thoron once, you're somewhere between 1-10% more likely (depending on base hit rate) for Dire Thunder to land twice.

It's worth noting that at lower accuracy numbers things like Divine Pulse+ become rather effective, and it doesn't cost a lot of SP.

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I feel like if we start with the premise of:

2 hours ago, haarhaarhaar said:

spend everything for Olwen

2 hours ago, haarhaarhaar said:

It requires a lot of luck, with little possibility for manipulation, to get Olwen this early.

If we start with a premise that it will cost all of your bond points, and still will require luck to get it, then I agree with the conclusion : it is not worth blowing all of your bond fragments just for a *chance* at getting the Owlen ring when Thoron will be a functional alternative.

It is just that given the amount of manipulation we actually have, the base premise it wrong. 

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8 hours ago, LukeB said:

 

I think that you have hit a key note, which is that Dire Thunder's efficacy is limited on high resistance enemies. But I think that your conclusion that it is over rated is flawed. 

If you get it, it is your single best enemy killing tool for a substantial portion of the game, and likely your most consistent way to one round over half of all units on any given map. You are correct that doing so offers less utility compared to the Emblem rings, but for most maps of the game you do not have enough to even go around - so having an optimized damage dealer not require one is a plus for the ring. 

I ran some numbers a while back, and on Chapter 17 (was just arbitrarily where I was at the time)  If my Citrinne had Dire Thunder, she did more damage then Thoron +great thunder on almost every normal enemy (excludes a couple mages), whole Great Thunder wins against almost every boss/wyrm (excluding Marni). Both of those options were substantially more damage then if Citrinne had an actual Emblem Ring. 

This is a general trend that holds true for several more chapters, before enemy stats just hit the point that you would do more with Great Thunder against most enemies except Generals. 

If you are optimizing for a nuking character (say Citrinne) then the best thing that you can do likely Dire Thunder early/mid game -> Great Thunder for the end game. 
 

Is Great Thunder Thoron?

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10 hours ago, LukeB said:

I am reading along, and am interested in the part where you get to the bond ring's effect, but this first section leaves me with the impression that you do not have a full understanding of how much we can manipulate the bond rings. 

Actually getting the Dire Thunder is trivial, but a little tedious. You can get it, or any other ring, in about 5-10 mins only spending enough bond fragments for a single 10 ring pull. I have done it personally multiple times across multiple playthroughs. 

I made a post a while back walking through the most efficient way to do it

Interesting! Yeah, I don't think I appreciated exactly how much the gacha could be cheesed. 

10 hours ago, LukeB said:

If you are optimizing for a nuking character (say Citrinne) then the best thing that you can do likely Dire Thunder early/mid game -> Great Thunder for the end game.

Mae's ring is not something I had considered at all - but surely it further enhances the case against Dire Thunder. It comes from Celica, so you can get it with your ring farming method the moment Thunder becomes available. Forging up a Thunder to Thoron and giving that unit Great Thunder will give you pretty much all the kills you could get with Dire Thunder (maybe even more over time!), with greater staying power in your army.

Of course, with your method you could get both Great Thunder and Dire Thunder only by spending some real time on it - but if you had to choose one, surely Dire Thunder loses.

10 hours ago, LukeB said:

I ran some numbers a while back, and on Chapter 17 (was just arbitrarily where I was at the time)  If my Citrinne had Dire Thunder, she did more damage then Thoron +great thunder on almost every normal enemy (excludes a couple mages), whole Great Thunder wins against almost every boss/wyrm (excluding Marni). Both of those options were substantially more damage then if Citrinne had an actual Emblem Ring. 

Interesting you say this - this is pretty different to what I found at the same position.

Actually, part of the communication gap here may be in the characters I'm using. My primary mages at Ch 17 are Jean (High Priest) and Ivy - thanks to the DLC both have been over-levelled relative to the story chapters since about Ch. 15, and they could certainly use Dire Thunder effectively now, as their Mag stats are 26+ IIRC (although I prefer Emblems on them for various reasons atm). Prior to that point, neither of them were regularly halving HP bars with Thunder (except armours ofc). I still think they'd be better off getting Thoron + an emblem going forward. 

I also have Celine and Clanne, who I'd been using pretty regularly until recently, but they are obviously sub-par mages in the midgame and beyond. Celine has 17 Mag as a Lv 7 Vidame - for comparison, promoting Citrinne to Sage from base gives her 17 Mag. Lindon has 19 Mag at base, if I sent my Chloe into Sage at Ch 17 she'd have 18 Mag. Point being, quite a lot of mage types at this juncture are dealing worse damage (because of their Mag stat) with Dire Thunder than with Thoron for a lot of enemies. I'm happy to accept that certain characters (Citrinne, maybe Anna?) can do well with Dire Thunder - but the relevance of Thoron isn't diminished by that (in fact, with Mae's ring it still looks like the better option). 

I can believe that Dire Thunder is a good option earlier on, although as I say, Thoron is cheaper than forging up a Thunder for similar killing power and longer staying power in your inventory. But I found that for much of the midgame a Thunder+3 with Tiki engraving (+2 Mt) was not able to halve an enemy's HP for a majority of units, even on my better mages, meaning it wouldn't ORKO with Dire Thunder. 

10 hours ago, LukeB said:

You are correct that doing so offers less utility compared to the Emblem rings, but for most maps of the game you do not have enough to even go around - so having an optimized damage dealer not require one is a plus for the ring. 

On your point about emblems, the DLC massively changes your dependence on bond rings, for obvious reasons. It wouldn't be fair to assume it now in discussions like this, but I think players generally run 2-3 mages in a 12-unit party (and I don't think unit deployments go beyond 10 at all in the first half of the game?), which the DLC would cover.

But I definitely take the point that at the time when Dire Thunder is doing its best work, equipping a bond ring instead of an emblem is also freeing up resources for everyone else (or actively keeping them in the fight after the story thing). 

9 hours ago, samthedigital said:

Dire Thunder allows Thunder to one shot a lot of enemies in Maddening without spending all of these resources. It starts to fall off as enemies start to get better resistance stats and the player has access to more resources, but a an Ike/Roy engrave with at most a +3 is all I would suggest spending on it. It's not really meant to be used later on in the game though; you asked about what you missed, and outside of what LukeB mentioned this is what I would point to.

I think it's fair to say that Dire Thunder does its best work in the early-to-midgame. But Dire Thunder with a base Thunder + Ike/Roy engraving is weaker than a base Thoron without any engraving. Given that the Thoron could get you more kills right now and is relevant for much longer, the only reason not to invest in one straightaway is if you literally can't afford forging at all (200 Iron, 20 Steel, 1 Silver, 3000G to get a Thoron from the Thunder tome Citrinne is carrying in ch 7 - pricey, but building Dire/Great Thunder should be a priority once you get funds in Ch 8 anyway).

If you don't have the resources (and that is a concern) then yeah there's no choice between free Thunder and unaffordable Thoron. 

9 hours ago, samthedigital said:

It's worth noting that at lower accuracy numbers things like Divine Pulse+ become rather effective, and it doesn't cost a lot of SP.

This is true, but applies relatively evenly to both Thoron and Dire Thunder (maybe slightly more for Thoron? not sure how to weight it actually).

10 hours ago, BloodRonin said:

With their personal class skill procs, it hits hard. You can also put the heaviest engraves for max damage and still double. 

Agreed, but you can't rely on their personal class skill procs, and like I said above, doing the same thing but making a Thoron for it instead will get similar, if not better, results. 

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12 hours ago, haarhaarhaar said:

I can also confirm that raising Bond Levels in the Arena changes the order. Specifically, for every Bond Level you raise, the order moves forward by one. So if you raise Clanne's bond with Marth from Level 1 to Level 5, the ring order will move forward by 4. This latter method is less time-consuming than combat, but requires the expenditure of bond fragments at an equal or higher rate than the gacha, meaning it's far less resource-optimal. 

Also, on further investigation I don't think I was right about this. I mean, it's still true that if you raise bond levels from 1 to 5, the ring order will move forward by 4. But the movements are different as you go for higher bond levels. Bond Levels 6-10 move the Gacha forward by 5 per level. And I'm not entirely sure what happens for Bond Levels 11-20 - am testing at the moment, but I don't really understand what I'm seeing just yet.

EDIT: Raising bond levels via the Arena doesn't just move the order forwards, it reboots the order altogether, I think. Actually, I'm going to just stop speculating on this since I'm clearly not on solid ground - but for people who look into this kind of thing, please investigate!

Edited by haarhaarhaar
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I don't think one can reasonably expect to get Dire Thunder early as a guarantee, but it certainly is a really good option if you happen to roll it. I don't think any reasonable person would argue that Dire Thunder > Thoron, but Dire Thunder is certainly better at the start, and I think even then, there is some merit to the argument that even if you consider their damage to be similar, Thoron missing means losing out on all the damage but Dire Thunder would likely hit at least once. Getting some damage vs. none could make or break a turn.

Dire Thunder also isn't limited by weapon rank, meaning characters like Hortensia and High Priests can get a Thoron equivalent without leaving their optimal class.

Also consider the scenario in which you need to hit something with Thunder, and both one hit of Dire and one Thoron would both kill. Dire Thunder is the safer pick in this scenario, for finishing off weaker enemies.

I believe Dire Thunder is more of a side grade than an up or downgrade to Thoron. It's not super worth it if you don't roll it early, but worth keeping around as an option.

Edited by meltenvy
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For most of the game (and I mean like, all except for literal endgame) Dire Thunder will do more damage to every unit you want your mage to attack, and Thoron (+ magic emblem ring) will do more damage to The Enemies You Don't Want Your Mage To Attack.

For reference, I went back to that chapter 17 save file, it had Citrinne, Anna, and Ivy all on the team. Ivy had the lowest magic, so I did some comparisons for her.

I gave her a +4 Thunder Tome (Ike) and Owlen. Then I gave her a +4 Thoron (Ike) and Byleth.

Ivy did more with Dire Thunder to every Berserker, Halberdier, Paladin, and General on the map, while Thoron would do more damage to the Royal Knights, High Priests, and Sages. (For Citrinne, Royal Knights actually moved over to Dire Thunder Group)

Do you really value doing more damage to High Priests and Sages over doing more damage to The Units You Want Your Mage To Kill? And the damage difference on the lower res enemies is significant. (Again, all numbers with Ivy, the numbers are even better for Citrinne)

  • 52 damage vs 39 damage to a berserker
  • 50 damage vs 38 to a general
  • 44 damage vs 35 damage to snipers
  • 42 damage vs 34 damage to Halberdiers

Dire Thunder Ivy can one shot all of these enemies, either on her own [Snipers] or with a little support (standing next to Alear or instruct from Byleth or a chain attack) [Berserkers/Generals/Halberdiers]. And Dire Thunder Citrinne one shots all with no help -- where as Thoron Ivy one shots... none of them... even with help. 

And this is comparing +4 to +4, and that is a LOT more resources for thoron to get there then it was for Thunder to get there, and it is substantially behind. 

Dire Thunder is very powerful. I also don't think that it is unexpected that eventually, at the very end of the game, your A rank weapon starts out scaling the D Rank weapon -- but that does not diminish the power and usefulness that that D rank weapon brought to all other stages of the game. 
 

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8 minutes ago, meltenvy said:

I don't think one can reasonably expect to get Dire Thunder early as a guarantee

If you know how to manipulate the rng, forcing out the Dire thunder ring is trivial but tedious. Takes about 5 mins (10 max), and 1,000 bond fragments. 

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3 minutes ago, LukeB said:

If you know how to manipulate the rng, forcing out the Dire thunder ring is trivial but tedious. Takes about 5 mins (10 max), and 1,000 bond fragments. 

Is it? I was able to do so on my most recent third playthrough in about the same amount of time, but it's basically RNG isn't it? It could take as little as 10 and as long as an hour. I was thinking I may have just gotten lucky.

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45 minutes ago, meltenvy said:

Is it? I was able to do so on my most recent third playthrough in about the same amount of time, but it's basically RNG isn't it? It could take as little as 10 and as long as an hour. I was thinking I may have just gotten lucky.

I have, across multiple playthroughs, forced Dierdre once, Claude twice, and Owlen three times. 

The longest it has taken me to pull a ring was 10 mins. Most took around 5 or so

Edited by LukeB
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3 hours ago, haarhaarhaar said:

I think it's fair to say that Dire Thunder does its best work in the early-to-midgame. But Dire Thunder with a base Thunder + Ike/Roy engraving is weaker than a base Thoron without any engraving. Given that the Thoron could get you more kills right now and is relevant for much longer, the only reason not to invest in one straightaway is if you literally can't afford forging at all (200 Iron, 20 Steel, 1 Silver, 3000G to get a Thoron from the Thunder tome Citrinne is carrying in ch 7 - pricey, but building Dire/Great Thunder should be a priority once you get funds in Ch 8 anyway).

If Dire Thunder does the job without heavy investment then it's best to stop there given that we can use those resources somewhere else where the additional damage will matter. I don't really have anything except my personal experience to offer, but I only replaced Dire Thunder when I felt that it was underpowered and I needed something stronger, and that was at around chapter 19 or so.

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3 minutes ago, samthedigital said:

If Dire Thunder does the job without heavy investment then it's best to stop there given that we can use those resources somewhere else where the additional damage will matter. I don't really have anything except my personal experience to offer, but I only replaced Dire Thunder when I felt that it was underpowered and I needed something stronger, and that was at around chapter 19 or so.

Yeah, that makes sense!

2 hours ago, LukeB said:

For most of the game (and I mean like, all except for literal endgame) Dire Thunder will do more damage to every unit you want your mage to attack, and Thoron (+ magic emblem ring) will do more damage to The Enemies You Don't Want Your Mage To Attack.

I agree that broadly speaking, mages should want to attack and kill low-Res enemies. But I think Thunder/Thoron's 3-range means that every enemy should be assessed for this build, because so few enemies (and very few bosses) can counter at that range, and it allows you to trigger chain attacks/debuffs safely on top of damage whenever you can't kill. 

2 hours ago, LukeB said:

For reference, I went back to that chapter 17 save file, it had Citrinne, Anna, and Ivy all on the team. Ivy had the lowest magic, so I did some comparisons for her.

I gave her a +4 Thunder Tome (Ike) and Owlen. Then I gave her a +4 Thoron (Ike) and Byleth.

Ivy did more with Dire Thunder to every Berserker, Halberdier, Paladin, and General on the map, while Thoron would do more damage to the Royal Knights, High Priests, and Sages. (For Citrinne, Royal Knights actually moved over to Dire Thunder Group)

Do you really value doing more damage to High Priests and Sages over doing more damage to The Units You Want Your Mage To Kill? And the damage difference on the lower res enemies is significant. (Again, all numbers with Ivy, the numbers are even better for Citrinne)

  • 52 damage vs 39 damage to a berserker
  • 50 damage vs 38 to a general
  • 44 damage vs 35 damage to snipers
  • 42 damage vs 34 damage to Halberdiers

Dire Thunder Ivy can one shot all of these enemies, either on her own [Snipers] or with a little support (standing next to Alear or instruct from Byleth or a chain attack) [Berserkers/Generals/Halberdiers]. And Dire Thunder Citrinne one shots all with no help -- where as Thoron Ivy one shots... none of them... even with help. 

And this is comparing +4 to +4, and that is a LOT more resources for thoron to get there then it was for Thunder to get there, and it is substantially behind. 

Again, I tried a similar comparison, and got a mixture of similar and different results. 

I only just got the Olwen ring, so I had a look at Ch 18 (my next story chapter) with it versus Thoron. Specifically, I used a Thunder+3 with Tiki (+2 Mt) for Olwen (+1 Mag) vs a Thoron+2 with the Soren engraving (+2Mt) and Soren equipped (+3 Mag). Clanne and Celine (Lv 8 Mage Knight and Lv 7 Vidame respectively) were straightforwardly better with the Thoron against everything (though no ORKOs, of course). Ivy (Lv 12 Lindwurm, recommended level for this map is Advanced Class Lv 5) isn't able to ORKO anything, even armours, with Dire Thunder, although she could do it with a chain attack or two, and Dire Thunder does do better damage than Thoron against the armour. Very happy to concede the point there. My premier mage, Jean (Lv 14 High Priest, promoted at Lv 15 Monk and has had Starsphere for 10 levels at least, I switched him to Sage to check Thoron and took his ring off him to compensate for the Mag disparity) is only just able to ORKO armours with Dire Thunder, and is short of that by a few points with Thoron. But for both Ivy and Jean, Thoron does better against the fliers and mages on this map as well. Ivy + Kagetsu's Brave Assist is enough to ORKO Lindon whether using Thoron or Dire Thunder.

To recap, over-levelled Jean gets Dire Thunder ORKOs against armours on this map, but I'm otherwise not getting ORKOs with Dire Thunder. For mages with really good Mag, relative to the story, Dire Thunder does between 5-10 points better damage against low-Res units like Berserkers (which is in line with your findings), but there's a similar gap for Thoron against high-Res units like Griffin Knights (like I said before, this does matter to me for the Thunder line of tomes specifically). For mages like Clanne/Celine, with average Mag relative to the story, Thoron is straightforwardly better than Dire Thunder at this point.

It seems to me a big difference in our results is in the quality of units that we're using. The fact that I can get ORKOs at all with Dire Thunder points to the fact that it is good, and usable for me personally. But for units like Clanne and Celine (or other mages without DLC influence), where the average enemy Res stat has already caught up roughly to their Mag stat, it's Thoron or bust. It sounds like units such as Citrinne (and indeed, my Jean) will outpace enemy Res for longer, but not all the way through. Given this, I think my original point about the similar results and longevity of early Thoron still stands

2 hours ago, LukeB said:

Dire Thunder is very powerful. I also don't think that it is unexpected that eventually, at the very end of the game, your A rank weapon starts out scaling the D Rank weapon -- but that does not diminish the power and usefulness that that D rank weapon brought to all other stages of the game. 

I hope it's clear that I'm not saying Dire Thunder doesn't deserve to be used if you do get it, especially early on. Which is why my original post differentiated between early access to Dire Thunder and later access. But the difference between it and Thoron is not hugely pronounced (if present at all?) when Dire Thunder is first available.

Indeed, with your method of farming rings and the Great Thunder ability you flagged, even the damage disparity between Ivy/Jean's Thoron and Dire Thunder I observed on my own file would shrink to a couple of points against low-Res enemies, and would extend by a few points against high-Res enemies. And Clanne and Celine might actually stay usable for longer. 

3 hours ago, meltenvy said:

Getting some damage vs. none could make or break a turn

Agreed, definitely an advantage for Dire Thunder. 

2 hours ago, meltenvy said:

Dire Thunder also isn't limited by weapon rank, meaning characters like Hortensia and High Priests can get a Thoron equivalent without leaving their optimal class.

Yeah you're right Master Seals are in short supply when Dire Thunder first becomes available, and everybody wants one. And as you say, some classes actively don't want Thoron because they can't use it. Mages are good candidates for early promotion because staff access, but that still doesn't mean Thoron fits everyone, whereas Dire Thunder can. 

3 hours ago, meltenvy said:

I believe Dire Thunder is more of a side grade than an up or downgrade to Thoron. It's not super worth it if you don't roll it early, but worth keeping around as an option.

Tbh, this is probably a better take than my own. I mostly wanted to make the point about early Thoron being surprisingly competitive and late Dire Thunder being less competitive, which this gets across less spikily. 

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5 hours ago, haarhaarhaar said:

Actually, part of the communication gap here may be in the characters I'm using. My primary mages at Ch 17 are Jean (High Priest) and Ivy - thanks to the DLC both have been over-levelled relative to the story chapters since about Ch. 15, and they could certainly use Dire Thunder effectively now, as their Mag stats are 26+ IIRC (although I prefer Emblems on them for various reasons atm). Prior to that point, neither of them were regularly halving HP bars with Thunder (except armours ofc). I still think they'd be better off getting Thoron + an emblem going forward. 

I... don't think High Priest Jean even gets Thoron as an option. High Priest has B Tomes, and can only go up to A with an innate Tome specialization, like Clanne and Celine. Jean's specialization is in Arts, so the strongest 3-range tome he can use is Elthunder.

5 hours ago, haarhaarhaar said:

Agreed, but you can't rely on their personal class skill procs, and like I said above, doing the same thing but making a Thoron for it instead will get similar, if not better, results. 

If Celine procs Ignis, or Alcryst gets Luna, it's a flat damage boost, regardless of the power of the original attack. It should be pretty apparent that getting "30% chance of 6 more damage" twice per combat, is better than getting "30% chance of 6 extra damage" once per combat. 

7 hours ago, ciphertul said:

If I’m not mistaken Great Thunder is the Mae bond ring which gives all Thunder spells +20% damage.

Hugely missed opportunity to call it "Big Hurty Lightning".

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11 minutes ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:

I... don't think High Priest Jean even gets Thoron as an option. High Priest has B Tomes, and can only go up to A with an innate Tome specialization, like Clanne and Celine. Jean's specialization is in Arts, so the strongest 3-range tome he can use is Elthunder.

Yeah he doesn't, when I was considering/testing Thoron on him I switched him to Sage temporarily. He's normally in High Priest though.

16 minutes ago, Shanty Pete's 1st Mate said:
5 hours ago, haarhaarhaar said:

Agreed, but you can't rely on their personal class skill procs, and like I said above, doing the same thing but making a Thoron for it instead will get similar, if not better, results. 

If Celine procs Ignis, or Alcryst gets Luna, it's a flat damage boost, regardless of the power of the original attack. It should be pretty apparent that getting "30% chance of 6 more damage" twice per combat, is better than getting "30% chance of 6 extra damage" once per combat. 

Yes - the second half of the sentence you quoted was responding the "put heaviest engraves for max damage" point. I was saying you should also do this for Thoron and it ends up helping Thoron as much, if not more (depending on how much you forge up Thoron or if you use Great Thunder).

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Damage with +3 Radiance Thunder + Olwen S ring: 2 × (11 + Mag - Res) = 22 + 2(Mag - Res)

Damage with +3 Radiance Thoron + Mae S ring: 1.2 × (24 + Mag - Res) = 28.8 + 1.2(Mag - Res)

So let's check when the former is higher than the latter, shall we?

22 + 2D > 28.8 + 1.2D

0.8D > 6.8

D > 8.5

In other words, Dire Thunder out-damages Great Thunder Thoron as long as your Magic is at least 9 above the enemy's Res. I'm... not actually sure how likely that is, since I've only played through the game once on Normal mode (just starting Maddening now), but hopefully you all can use this to settle the debate (or at least further it).

Also, investing more in Might helps Dire Thunder more, since that extra power gets used twice.

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Max Mt on Thunder is 10 and Thoron is 23 I believe, which changes it to D>9.5. But the more mt you put on via engrave, the math changes. higher mt, the lower the mag has to be over the enemy Res.

EDIT: I actually misinterpreted your math. Seems you did Radiance to add 3 dmg to a 6 overall on each.

I think basically for the regular enemies, you would want Dire Thunder, if at all really since Great Thunder Thoron actually passes the threshold to one shot majority of the enemies. 

Against bosses and mages, Great Thunder is better. 

So despite the math, it's still up to preference. I think GT is better because it's enough for normal enemies and better for bosses, which means it's better overall. But Thunder is cheaper, which is a major point towards it. Late game though, GT feels like it would be better despite Citrinne's high Mag. She also isn't one rounding mages regardless of which she uses tbh. 

Edited by lemurmoo
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I think the sacrifice of using an emblem is not really being fully explored here. Yes, Dire Thunder is going to be great if you're just after Chapter 11 or are doing a no Emblem run, but if Dire Thunder is going into direct competition with an Emblem, I think using an Emblem (and Thoron) is going to win. There might not be tonnes of magic Emblems to choose from, but all the Emblems will be offering something in terms of skills, stats and engage attacks. Even your magic users can benefit a lot from an Emblem like Sigurd.

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22 minutes ago, Jotari said:

I think the sacrifice of using an emblem is not really being fully explored here.

This is only a sacrifice in chapters where you have the same number (or more) emblems then you have deployments slots. 

That is a very, very small portion of the game, unless you have all of the DLC emblems. 

At all times where you have less emblem rings then deployment slots, this is a positive - not a negative

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28 minutes ago, Jotari said:

I think the sacrifice of using an emblem is not really being fully explored here. Yes, Dire Thunder is going to be great if you're just after Chapter 11 or are doing a no Emblem run, but if Dire Thunder is going into direct competition with an Emblem, I think using an Emblem (and Thoron) is going to win. There might not be tonnes of magic Emblems to choose from, but all the Emblems will be offering something in terms of skills, stats and engage attacks. Even your magic users can benefit a lot from an Emblem like Sigurd.

Yeah I get where you're coming from here. Before Ch 11 I'm only running 2 mages in all likelihood, so they get Celica/Micaiah unless I need Micaiah to raise someone's level quickly. 12+ unit deployments in story chapters start becoming much more common from Ch 14 on, when magic-boosting emblems begin to return - this is the point where I'm likely to consistently field 3 mages. Once you get Eirika you actually have to think quite hard about what those mages want to equip, and that's before considering the DLC if you have it. Furthermore, certain hybrid builds can use Sigurd/Roy/Ike pretty profitably. You don't have that many magic emblems, but you tend to run fewer mages compared to physical units. So the competition might actually be fiercer. Throw Bond Rings into the mix, and you have to be really confident that their one niche can outdo everything an emblem does for that unit.

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