School of Hard NOCs - Night 6 ends on Mar. 15 at 9:00 PM HST

[Prims]

gdi eclipse signed off IRC so I guess we're not getting a flip tonight.

The reason I thought Cult was viable is because eclipse miscounted MYLO and I'm not sure she'd do that if it were 4:2.

We'll see, I guess. Still like 100% on scum-Haze.

[Haze]

So before you turbo me as Prims seems so eager to do, know that I'm not one of Prims' phantom 6 anons this morning, as I was on my way to work.

I'm back however, because someone fucked up the rota and I'm not in until later.

Currently writing a response to this massive pile of speculation you call a case.

[Prims]

would be more inclined to listen to a claim than that tbh

[charlie_]

Don't think it's Rajam or BBM right now. I'll think over Shinori/Prims in a few minutes.

[BBM]

But if there's a cult and Rajam got culted it would be like 3/1/2? Or if Rajam was cult all along and it's 4/1/1 then it would only be potential MYLO I believe.

BACK TO WORK

[Prims]

i re-read shinori's iso and i think he's town tbh

might just be because i'm caught up in haze/sb though

[Haze]

Okay time to blow some minds, because I don't buy into there is a Tailor in this game.

Consider the following:

Prims is basing the existance of a tailor on a potential Tailoring of Balcerzak night one (by me no less.) This is because his role, Protection Stripper/Hooker, appeared on BBM's results as just Hooker. There's some logic to that, however I think it's more likely that their roles might be intended to work in that fashion as opposed to outside influence having caused that.

For example, let's (hypothetically) say BBM targetted RD, Bal, and myself, and I'm (hypothetically) a Tailor.

Here's some potential results for you:
Rislim remix, Jack of all Kills, Mafia

Rislim remix, Protection Stripper/Hooker, Mafia.

Tsumi to Bachi, Tailor, Mafia

Tsumi to Bachi, Jack of all Kills, Mafia

Colours, Tailor, Mafia

Colours, Protection Stripper/Hooker, Mafia

OP as fuck, not even a tailor could protect against that, especially if you throw in SB's alliance check.

*Adding in it would also negate a potential Godfather modifier that you're apparently assuming I have based on a jokepost.

On the other hand, if the roles are designed to return on inspect as, I dunno, JoaT and Hooker, it's still accurate while not being an instant guilty based on role alone.

The argument could be made for the possibility of a Tailor's existance in that setup, as tailor could be both mafia and town anyway. However if we assume that Bal's role simply reads as Hooker on inspect, then we have no evidence for the existance of a Tailor in this game.

Now to get into Prims speculating about my mafia play:

There is no way I would have protected Bal night 1 as Tailor over protecting RD. RD's role is stupid powerful and can be bussed later once he's expended most of his abilities for easy town points.

I wouldn't have tailored a buddy to read Hooker. That is literally the dumbest thing I've ever read.

He claims I wouldn't have let Shinori claim Backup and yet finds it believable I'd let Balcerzak claim he targetted FFM night 1. I'm insulted.

Finally, I am a Rogue, not a Tailor.

I targetted Rajam night 1, as he was a scumread and I'd attacked him fairly consistantly, even if I'd hopped off the wagon to pressure FFM (who reacted very poorly to it, so I left my vote on him.) This failed, obviously. As Radam was shot.

Night 2 I literally accidentally typed Shark Balcerzak instead of Shark Bait because I was sick and it was late and didn't notice. No, seriously. I just about pulled my hair out when I got my results. Eclipse asked for confirmation but I didn't come back until Day 3 and she assumed I meant Bal and went for it. Oops.

Night 3 I targetted Kaoz, I shouldn't even have to explain this one. Best chance I had at actually getting my role off.

This is also why I've been dodgy about posting reads, I wanted to try to control my accusations on people so that I was only going after 1 or 2 people at a time, to try and catch someone trying to shoot me in the face for knowing too much.

Based on that... I'm entirely inclined to believe that there's a cult, and that we're in 4/1/1 or 4/2 with a third mafioso having been culted. I am therefore going to ##Vote: Rajam for now until I can try to speculate about who the cult leader might be.

[Prims]

He claims I wouldn't have let Shinori claim Backup and yet finds it believable I'd let Balcerzak claim he targetted FFM night 1. I'm insulted.

Basically expect there would be different situations of communication behind each claim.

Do you revive after pulling off your ability or just stop the kill? Will have to think about this.

[Rajam]

I targeted Prims and got redirected to Rajam.

So Rajam wasn't lying about his role.

Confirming. I targeted Prims. I didn't target BBM because it was supposed that Prims and Shinori were targeting him, and I didn't target Kaoz as someone suggested because I was having an Indy read on him.

My suspicion goes now onto Haze first, Shinori second. Despite the flips, I still think SB and Prims are town. Need to double-check obviously because it would be a miracle if we aren't at MYLO/LYLO.

Shinori why did you target Prims?? You were supposed to go on BBM

[Haze]

If I target the player who kills me, I can revive myself at any time.

[Prims]

rajam who's your cultbuddy

[Prims]

I don't think Rogue meshes well with the set-up. A situational game-changer (essentially stops a kill, gives town a confirmed townie, and catches scum if Kaoz isn't the one to trigger it) when we already have stuff like Wizard+Cop+Bodyguard+Martyr seems very out of place - not to mention that 2/3 of the 1-shot abilties I've used so far can be "situational game-changers" as well.

At the very least, there's scum between Haze and Shinori, because reviving Rogue and an Amnesiac-style backup in the same game just does not happen.

[Haze]

I thought that myself until I saw BBM's results, then I started to think it might be designed as a potential way for town to stage a comeback against a cult by reviving and fucking their lynch up. It also sort of explains the limitations of the mayor role.

I mean if I'd triggered it that's what I would have done, waited until the scum make it obvious who they were then remix myself back into the game and laugh.

[Prims]

Frustratingly I have to actually think about this game now because I hosted a game that did the same thing wrt role names (scum had two parts to their role but only the townier part appeared to rolecops).

Haze, why did you drop Rajam during the 1v1 on D3?

[Haze]

I don't remember dropping him?

I wanted claims from both Bal and Rajam before I made my judgment on them, Bal claimed but Rajam waffled forever and didn't. So I ended up dropping my vote onto FFM because I thought he was near 100% scum (whoops,) and never got back to the thread to see Rajam's claim before Bal was hammered.

Speaking of which judging by the multiple claims of being pulled to Rajam I'm guessing his role is confirmed at least.

Still though, Cult on BBM's results.

[charlie_]

I don't really believe the rogue claim, it just seems easy and kind of swingy. The only thing that makes me doubt it is that I would've thought Haze would've come up with something better as a fakeclaim.

btw if you think i'm scum, this is what D2's wagons looked like, which is kind of lol:

Radiant Dragon (5) - SB, BBM, Rajam, Fire Flower, Prims
Balcerzak (3) - Scarlet, Kaoz, Eurykins
SB (2) - Radiant Dragon, Haze
Scarlet (1) - Shinori
Shinori (1) - Balcerzak

With scum Prims:

Radiant Dragon (5) - SB, BBM, Rajam, Fire Flower, Prims

Balcerzak (3) - Scarlet, Kaoz, Eurykins
SB (2) - Radiant Dragon, Haze
Scarlet (1) - Shinori
Shinori (1) - Balcerzak

with scum shinori:

Radiant Dragon (5) - SB, BBM, Rajam, Fire Flower, Prims

Balcerzak (3) - Scarlet, Kaoz, Eurykins
SB (2) - Radiant Dragon, Haze
Scarlet (1) - Shinori
Shinori (1) - Balcerzak

I think Prims jumping on RD last minute for towncred considering dual scum wagons makes more sense than triple scum wagons with half the team trying to bus me? I also think that no bussing done whatsoever would be sort of ridiculous so I'm kind of doubtful on scum!Shinori. Gonna re-ISO people and come back with findings.

I should probably assume scum!BBM for completion's sake.

[Prims]

SB/Haze actually makes a lot more sense than Prims/Haze imo - in the first case, the scum were dealt a shitty hand in terms of suspicion from town so they distanced everywhere to make the most of it. The latter case has only one scum bussing at the tail end of the wagon and minimal effort put into creating a counterwagon, which amounts to scum throwing their hands in the air and going "fuck cred or saving our buddy let's just pray for the best" when they could have muddied the waters by piling on RD/Bal further or pushed harder on Shinori.

Haze targeting Rajam over FFM N1 is iffy; total newbscum would be more likely to make a reactionary kill and Haze pressed FFM harder than Rajam D1. If Rajam was scum and wanted to kill somebody who suspected him then there were a bunch of players to choose from who pushed him harder.

[Haze]

@SB: What are your thoughts on there not being a tailor?

@Prims: You're absolutely right.

Honestly, FFM and Rajam were both complete failures on my part. When I initially went after them, I never intended either to turn into big wagons, I just wanted to press them and maybe make them shoot me if they turned out to be scum, but their wagons spiralled out of control. Ultimately I decided to stick with the FFM lynch (which ended up not happening,) and target Rajam.

When neither of them were lynched, I opted to still target Rajam, primarilly because of FFM's claim. I speculated that FFM had drawn enough attention with that to attract potential trackers to confirm his movements or even a hook. So I chose not to bother targetting him thinking that even if he was scum, the scumteam wouldn't send him out killing with that much heat.

Stupidly enough, he only attracted your watch.

[charlie_]

Actually, I had a thought. Didn't BBM only pick up Hooker when he scanned Bal?

[Prims]

yep, he targeted bal, rajam and shinori and got twelfth style / hooker / town

[charlie_]

Yeah but Bal was a 2 part role so he should've got the protection killer thing too, right?

[Haze]

RIght now I have to actually get to work, I won't be back for another 4~5 hours, so hopefully you haven't decided to lynch me by then because if you do, you lose.

Ciao.

[Rajam]

also scum if you want to know the remaining players' roles then SB is a commuter and Haze is a watcher (if Randa wasn't!)

hth

Prims where did this come from and what does it mean

hth?

[Rajam]

wtf I'm seeing those claims now, and Cult... what

Does the "Cult" result means Recruiter or Recruited? I think deciphering that could help a lot. If it means Recruiter then there's someone messing around (Tailor/Framer) because the "Town" result BPM got N1 is mine. If it means Recruited then it means there is a Recruiter around and lynching him takes priority over lynching me. Anyways, I obviously deny being part of a Cult, and I think the Framer option is much more likely and that someone wanted to mess with Prims and BPM investigations last Night (and I got affected due to redirections shenanigans).

Since from my PoV the most likely option is Framer (actually idk if there's another plausible option), I'm having doubts now if I want Haze or Shinori. Haze is scummiest overall, but Shinori is confirmed to have targeted Prims (redirected to me) last Night.

[Rajam]

Actually if Shinori is Cult Leader then he wouldn't have targeted Prims (me through redirection). After all Prims was one of the slots BPM was going to investigate (#668) and therefore would've had a 1/3 chance that his alignment would've been revealed. If recruited people lose their roles or names, that chance just gets increased. Risky, and there were safer options, like me directly or the same BPM (and he had the perfect "excuse" with the Bodyguard thing). Prims was also "exposed" to NKills (I never mentioned the possibility of protecting Prims, I just mentioned BPM), so yeah if there is a Cult Leader is not Shinori.

This doen't clear Shinori though. As I said, from my PoV, framer is the explanation. And Shinori claimed to have targeted Prims/me so there's a chance he is a Mafia Framer.

What's almost 100% guaranteed is that there should be at least one Mafia left (unless this potential Cult Leader recruited him or unless the Mafia team were just 2 people...), and two NKills last Night get's the confirmation even closer to 100%. We must pursue Mafia over potential cult members/Leader all day. If there's only Mafia left then that conclusion is direct. If there's Mafia+Cult, then it's Kingmaker and Town already lost, and actually if we lynch mafia then one of the remaining town members can actually have a chance of winning via being recruited lol

Going to do a vote analysis from D1, D2, D3 and try to find out who's better to lynch now, Shinori or Haze, or maybe even someone else.