Jump to content

Touhou NOCfia - Game Over


Prims
 Share

Recommended Posts

I was running numbers and it's actually possible for town to win following a nolynch, but unless the mafia tried to kill Strege the same night he successfully guessed the scumteam, it would prevent Strege from winning with us, because he otherwise has to stay around to play kingmaker between the town and scum.

@Shinori- we don't know if the vote is real or not, and even if it is, you/your buddy could have placed it on yourself for towncred.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Just, ya know, thinking of it logically.

Boron would say.

Strege would say unless he was helping scum.

Manix/bbm if they were town would say, because they would have no reason from hiding the fact that they want to lynch me and thus they put the vote down.

Kirsche might not say cause he's highly likely to be a third party but he still needs to lynch scum and he's not voting me which means he prefers manix/bbm over me, thus a ghost vote coming from him just sounds dumb.

I wouldn't ghost vote myself.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was running numbers and it's actually possible for town to win following a nolynch, but unless the mafia tried to kill Strege the same night he successfully guessed the scumteam, it would prevent Strege from winning with us, because he otherwise has to stay around to play kingmaker between the town and scum.

I don't know what numbers you're running, but remember that I don't win as a survivor if that's what you're thinking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Shinori- You haven't heard of mafia targeting a scumbuddy with a public, scummy action? Like silencing or kidnapping them or whatever.

@Strege- I know you don't, which is why I said that it would prevent you from winning with us, because we'd need you to stick around for your vote until the end. Unless they tried to kill you the same night you won, which would result in a sort of no-kill to balance out the no-lynch. And even then, that'd need to occur on N8 I think, not tonight. And it's all assuming the other ITP has no more killing powers left. I'm not advocating a no lynch, just saying that it doesn't result in a loss in all situations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Day 7.4 Votals

Manix (3): Strege, kirsche, Shinori (L-1!)

Shinori (1): Manix

Not voting (2): BBM, Boron

The day ends in 11 hours and 15 minutes. With 6 alive, hammer is required and it takes 4 to lynch.

It is possible for Town to lose the game following a mislynch today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The vote wore off, it seems, which implies it wasn't an actual vote.

And Shinori, I know that you're not looking at it in that manner. My point was similar to what Strege made- that logic might be fine for you, from your POV, but it doesn't work for anyone else in the game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

##Unvote

Day 7.4 Votals

Manix (3): Strege, kirsche, Shinori (L-1!)

Shinori (1): Manix

Not voting (2): BBM, Boron

The day ends in 11 hours and 15 minutes. With 6 alive, hammer is required and it takes 4 to lynch.

It is possible for Town to lose the game following a mislynch today.

WHAT A COINCIDENCE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the anonymous vote had anything to do with my vote, why wouldn't it have been there from the beginning? You're making connections where none exist.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am officially confused, but I don't think chasing that mystery vote is going to do us any good. If it's a fake modscene like how we saw with Blitz and Manix, all it shows is that the person causing those is still alive. If it was someone's actual vote, it's disappeared so I don't think we're going to get anywhere speculating over it.

Ugh ... I've been thinking really hard over the night and for the time being. Maybe it's WIFOM, maybe it's not, but I'm leaning away from Shinori being scum. While his action in-thread and lack of hard scum hunting aren't good, if he thought there was the risk of his being lynched today, why would he give me his lynchproof potion? Just for the sake of "town cred" which doesn't really mean all that much right now?

For the time being, the person who I have the worst gut reaction on is actually Manix. His content when he gives it seems pretty good, but (and screw me for using meta) he seems very different from what I've seen of his usual town self. Like, I can't explain it and it's bugging me that I can't, but I'm just not entirely comfortable with him.

I think we have time right now, so I'm not going to actually vote yet. We could use more discussion anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How does towncred mean little right now? It means a lot, because if the mafia can even get enough just to mislynch someone today, they win the game. If Shinori had just stuck to using the lynchproof potion, that wouldn't actually have made him look any better for tomorrow, and as I realized earlier, a no lynch doesn't mean that town can't win anymore, and it certainly doesn't mean that the mafia are guaranteed victory.

I agree with the Manix point though. He's been super lazy, and I know he's got stuff going on irl, but I just don't like the large periods of time where he kept posting but wasnt really scumhunting at all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

##Unvote because I don't know what's happening with votes and this is safest (unless daykill).

Well, it's most likely 2/2/1/1. Strege is one of those 1s. Kirsche is either my fellow town member or the second third, from SSG Cop report. Boron being mafia is pretty unlikely, so she's also either town or third. So FMPOV this leaves Manix/Shinori as scumteam. From Manix's POV, it leaves me/Shinori as scumteam. And from Shinori's POV, it leaves me/Manix as scumteam.

This basically means that we should lynch between me/Manix/Shinori today, as two of us are almost certainly mafia, and they are a larger threat today than the third(s) is/are.

actually thinking about it, in any case; i doubt boron bussed xinny (and besides, i know her role is legit), so boron isn't maf

considering it's probs 2/2/1/1 from kirsche's numbers, kirsche/strege/boron are not mafia, and since i know i'm town that leaves shinori/bbm.

gg scum you're going down

These were posted right after one another, with BBM ninja-ing Manix. If there were two scum among Shinori, BBM, and Manix, then at least one of BBM and Manix would have to be scum (obvs) and they would have very little reason to narrow the field to 66% mafia like this, when a lynch on Boron is possible though unlikely. This looks kinda bad for Boron imo, although obviously there's quite a lot of evidence for her being town. I was just thinking of this before Boron posted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

These were posted right after one another, with BBM ninja-ing Manix. If there were two scum among Shinori, BBM, and Manix, then at least one of BBM and Manix would have to be scum (obvs) and they would have very little reason to narrow the field to 66% mafia like this, when a lynch on Boron is possible though unlikely. This looks kinda bad for Boron imo, although obviously there's quite a lot of evidence for her being town. I was just thinking of this before Boron posted.

To be fair, Strege, there are times when narrowing the field may be advantageous to scum. If you only need one more mislynch to win, then you can "clear" one townie to push a mislynch on the other with PoE logic to keep the lynch from getting too random.

I agree that I am in no way clear. But it seems unfair to say that this looks bad for me, because BBM and Manix don't seem to want to lynch me. It's out of my control. The reason I am considered "unlikely" to be mafia at this time is because of the Xinny lynch. Unless people strongly feel that I bussed her, then they're going to assume that I'm at least not scum even if they don't know for sure what I am.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How does towncred mean little right now? It means a lot, because if the mafia can even get enough just to mislynch someone today, they win the game. If Shinori had just stuck to using the lynchproof potion, that wouldn't actually have made him look any better for tomorrow, and as I realized earlier, a no lynch doesn't mean that town can't win anymore, and it certainly doesn't mean that the mafia are guaranteed victory.

I agree with the Manix point though. He's been super lazy, and I know he's got stuff going on irl, but I just don't like the large periods of time where he kept posting but wasnt really scumhunting at all.

I ... guess that's a point I didn't consider. ;/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The mafia don't even technically need a mislynch, even an ITP lynch would win the game for them. But hunting explicitly for the ITP at this stage would be super bad so they're not going to suggest that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

blub

so everything about the fake vote was true then

and at this point i don't really have that much to say, pretty much everything has already been said that needs to be said

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Day 7.5 Votals

Manix (2): kirsche, Shinori

Shinori (1): Manix

Not voting (3): BBM, Boron, Strege

The day ends in 7 hours. With 6 alive, hammer is required and it takes 4 to lynch.

It is possible for Town to lose the game following a mislynch today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well anyways I'm going to just go back to ##Vote: Shinori since the anonymous vote is gone and on top of earlier stuff, I didn't really like his reaction to the vote. It felt like he was trying to use it as proof he was town.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fuck everything I don't know what to do anymore >_>

##Vote: Manix

I've been thinking really hard about this, and I've come to the conclusion that I don't think both BBM and Shinori are scum. Which means that regardless of which of the two I think is scum, Manix has to be the other scum by my PoE/reasoning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

boron why is shinori/bbm unlikely? bbm unvoted when the fake vote or what have you was up on shinori when bbm would have probably known it was fake, and even if it wasn't, it reads like trying to save his buddy from being lynched

???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

and seriously why would bbm decide to make those wishy-washy statements about "not knowing what wifom the mafia are using, poe notwithunderstanding"

to save shinori

Link to comment
Share on other sites

also one last thing. riddle me this, but wouldn't you think if i was scum, wouldn't i just claim normal ascetic without the self-voyeur or whatever it is? it'd be a lot easier to hold and i wouldn't have cleared out people's roles, which as scum is practically a death sentence?

also yes i lied i still have things to say, mostly because i'm actually waking up a bit now

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...