Batmafia!!! Game Over

[Sniper Knight]

I have it on good authority that Mancer isn't scum, and scum typically vote to deflect suspicion, the only one other than Corinthian (i.e. me) who voted and was voted against is Balcerzak.

##Vote: Balcerzak.

[Izhuark]

I have it on good authority that Mancer isn't scum, and scum typically vote to deflect suspicion, the only one other than Corinthian (i.e. me) who voted and was voted against is Balcerzak.

##Vote: Balcerzak.

Wait whut ? i didn't understand at all your case cool you expand it a little more your case and respond clearly to those question : why mancer isn't scummy ? and why balcerzak is ?

[Izhuark]

could

Wait whut ? i didn't understand at all your case could you expand it a little more your cases and respond clearly to those question : why mancer isn't scummy ? and why balcerzak is ?

[Sniper Knight]

I know from my role that Mancer isn't scummy, and if I'm telling the truth I'm obviously not scum. Mitsuki said during the last round that one of the potential lynchees was scummy, so it's logical to assume that they would vote, since one vote for someone else means one less vote for them, and Balcerzak is the only one that had a vote against him and voted for someone else.

[Elieson]

willing to sub with the pretense of passing to the game, the knowledge that I've read nothing so far

[Dreamer]

I know from my role that Mancer isn't scummy, and if I'm telling the truth I'm obviously not scum. Mitsuki said during the last round that one of the potential lynchees was scummy, so it's logical to assume that they would vote, since one vote for someone else means one less vote for them, and Balcerzak is the only one that had a vote against him and voted for someone else.

If you point to the post that i quoted a few houres ago. I said afterwards that it was supposed to be a joke. So don't take it seriously.

( I also thought it was serious hint. so i can't blame you ). If you mean another post. Could you qoute that?

[Izhuark]

Are you guys seriously trying to modspec ? I think i'm not the joker here... x)

[Flamesrule]

I will Sub for Rapier

[Mitsuki]

JBCWK subs in for Rapier!

Thank you to Elie and Flamesrule for offering, I'm giving JBCWK higher priority since he contacted me first (through PM).

I'll be adding both of you to the subs list!

[Mitsuki]

YOLOSWAG has been prodded.
Tiny Goddess has been prodded. (x2)
J has been prodded. (x2)
MancerNecro has been prodded.
Proto has been prodded. (x2)

The third prod will result in a forced sub out.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

yoooooo

im here n i aint got shit to do tonight! epic reread time

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

iight so mancers still gross for reasons ive outlined b4. i also think his early game play was mad forced like the big hullabaloo over izhuarks shitposts (lol @ that btw) like for forreal homie? and the link i got here for the gauis vote strikes me as a reach so fierce itd make michael jordan from space jam jealous. i still have issue with his play cuz he was hopping on too many players for too many reasons to the point where im havin trouble believing that he genuinely believed a lot of his pushes. by the time he makes this post hes made 3 different jumps and writing out a scumlist at that juncture is hard to buy

http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?...pic=57975&p=4106483

pretty gross post by dreamer when the thread was hot n diego was getting shat on left and right. shes criticizing diego and acknowledging that the reasons for suspecting him are valid but she forgoes commitment thru voting in favor of a canned "its first day, no night actions, wait for more information" comment. this REALLY stuck out to me cuz of the contrast between this vs the normal reaction of just voting him and has me fearing shes pulling the voice of reason scum shtick. a lot of times ill look for people reacting differently from the general consensus cuz i find those outliers are sometimes scum goin against the grain thru manufactured reasons

3rd corinthian gross post

this is still a mighty foul post and id lynch this slot for it due to reasons i said here

tiny goddess first post

another disgusting post. a lot of "x but y" comments. she equivocates on EVERY read she has here to the point where shes almost saying nothing. i can tell she was very cautious typing up this post and i wouldnt be surprised if its scared scum being careful with her wording. this is the type of post a politician types to not step on anyones toes

another dreamer post

read what i wrote for tiny goddess. i dont understand what shes trying to accomplish with this post and looks like talking for the sake of talking aka forced/manufactured. would lynch

dreamer continued

i repeat what i said above. im also really confused where the green poet vote is coming from and what the point behind having both "rest of the people here" and "the people who i didnt mention" is. needs to differentiate cuz i want an idea of which people she finds scummier than others

tiny goddess continued

ok yeah tiny goddesses wording is driving me up a wall. every time it looks like shes about to stick to a statement she pulls out an equivocation that prevents her from taking a solid stance. an example of what im talking about here is "she placed a vote on him [balc] without any reasoning behind it...not necessarily scummy, but odd" and "Seems more like a case of self perseverance [mancer] than anything else atm... Or maybe I'm over-analyzing things" i mean whats the point of pointing out stuff like this if youre gonna fence sit or say something that hurts your own credibility? it extends past that to the rest of her diction as well cuz the equivocation is too real

i dont quite understand what sniper knight is saying earlier on this page. meh

thats the best i got. im lookin at mancer/3rdcorinthian (sniper knight)/tiny goddess/dreamer andll happily lynch any of them

##vote mancer

fos sniper knight

fos tiny goddess

fos dreamer

[Balcerzak]

I'm finishing up reading through what I previously skimmed, and have noted one instance where I got something wrong. I'll clarify/correct when I make my next post, but I might not be done working on it until after dinner tonight. I have a lot of notes to organize now, and some cross-checking to do.

I know of specific questions from Refa, Green Poet, Baldrick, and apparently now Sniper, but if I've overlooked something, I apologize. I will try to cover those in my post, maybe provide a quick summary for J and the subs.

[Sniper Knight]

If you point to the post that i quoted a few houres ago. I said afterwards that it was supposed to be a joke. So don't take it seriously.

( I also thought it was serious hint. so i can't blame you ). If you mean another post. Could you qoute that?

Ah, my bad, I took it seriously.

##Unvote

[Balcerzak]

First, an answer for Refa. I felt a little wary about writing so many words about something that might not still be currently relevant, but honestly, you never know what might happen, so I might as well put content out there. Worst case scenario, it gets discussed, amirite?

Can you explain where Dreamer shot herself in the foot in her post? Overall, it read as pretty good to me.

How she was handling Green Poet's rather neutral criticisms of her felt kind of OMGUSy, and I had some other problems with its presentation. It's possible much of it may be related to language barrier, upon giving it a second read, but I initially felt that her use of adjectives to describe people went opposite with how she was reading them. The fact that she messed up her "greater than" and "less than" signs also made me do a double take. Then there was just some statements that I still can't quite wrap my head around. But let's take things in order for a bit here.

The post in question:

Green Poet: I think that you are one of the most interesting players.

[Discussion about GP's case revolving around Diego's use of the word "mistake".]

But can you tell me why you said this?

Those who've read my Diego case can probably guess where I'm hoping to go with this question, if the answer pans out in a particular way.

This sentence just feels wrong. Just something that neither a town or a scum would say. But it still give me some scum vibes.

Anyway. This is my current scum order.

Green Poet<<<<YOLOSWAG<<<<rest of the people here<<<<< the people who i didn't mention<<<<Refa

EDIT:

I should change my vote ##Unvote Balcerzak ##Vote Green poet

"Interesting" isn't how I'd usually describe my scumreads, unless I was being "Minnesota Nice"* about it. When I read "you're one of the most interesting players" I thought she was complimenting GP on doing a good job being both pro-town and interesting, only to experience some whiplash when later on in the post I come to a sudden reversal in situation when she mentions getting scum vibes. Then I got confused again with the > vs < mixup, and the cherry on top was the vote at the end, which felt kind of insane. This also cropped up when she described yoloswag as "confident" which is positive, as opposed to "over-confident" which fits in more with her criticisms of his attitude. (The confusion over his post asking "who else thinks this is legitimate" was just, however, as I initially read it the other way, so I can't fault her misunderstanding there.)

[spoiler=(You know, the classic "Oh, now that's an interesting way of doing things".)]



Understand the cultural stereotype called "Minnesota nice." This is the act of being outwardly nice, without conveying your real opinions or emotions. It is often referred to as "passive aggressive" or "enthusiastic neutral" tone because of the friendly inflections while saying something negative.



Say, "That's different" instead of saying you don't like something. If someone asks your opinion and you want to show a little opinion, "that's different" will show that you don't like it, without having to go into detail.



Avoid telling your opinion directly if it may hurt someone's feelings. It's better to say "Not bad" than "Not good."

(from WikiHow)

Not to mention, the implication that GP was making was very thinly veiled at that, so it was a little surprising there was some confusion over it. It's basically the second sentence of her Diego case after all:

I do not feel that Diego's unvote and newly remissive attitude is genuine. In short, it reads as though he was advised by scumbuddies to back off of the Izuhark issue.

Green Poet was trying to catch a scumslip where a scumbuddy said Diego called his behavior a mistake, but in reality the person who had used the phrase mistake was the scum themselves in their scum PM with Diego. Obviously the tactic didn't end up panning out (due not only to the fact that Diego did phrase it that way, but also the fact that it's silly to advertise just what you're hoping to catch scum red-handed doing while attempting to catch them red-handed doing it). To me, Green Poet's sentence didn't feel "wrong" and I could easily see it uttered with town-intent. The general wishy-washy-ness of Dreamer's scum vibes here also seemed to contrast a fair bit with just how much emphasis it had in her final analysis, putting "Green Poet >>>> other people" in terms of scumminess.

Balcerzak: I like his analyses. Just a general post, that dont give me town or scum vibes, but I wonder how a balpost looks like. It doesnt matter who is going to get nightkilled or lynced because he hasnt a clear side yet ( there isnt someone who he attacks or defends ). I wonder of his posts will stay that way.

As long as we're on the subject of this particular post, I'd appreciate it if anyone could tell me what the bolded bit was trying to say? It makes my brainmeats hurt trying to decipher it.

[Balcerzak]

Next, an answer for Green Poet:

Curious - is this a pressure vote to try and get answers from Corinthian's sub?

This is c/p pretty much directly from my game notes, as I got a bit on a roll typing it up at the time:

GP wants to know if my vote on Sniper is a pressure vote. I guess that's one way to characterize it. The other was based on vote analysis of the earliest votes on Diego (pre-consolidation). There were at one point five of them there, cast in order by: Izhuark, Refa, LG, GP, and Corinthian. Izhuark's was initially a joke-vote, later strengthened to real vote. That's a plausible path for a scum-vote to land on a wagon, but I've already eliminated Izhuark as a scum candidate for other reasons. Refa was the first serious vote, and got the snowball rolling on the whole shebang. It's rarer that scum start a successful wagon on town than simply taking advantage of already existing misplaced town suspicions (although it can happen). Furthermore, Refa makes too many other pro-town seeming plays throughout the day, especially in the endgame of D1, where he switches from Diego to Mancer, taking it from 6-1 to (after Proto's appearance and if LG had switched back) a potential 4-4, which could conceivably have developed into a fullfledged counterwagon. Without knowing Mancer's alignment for sure, this isn't 100% indicative, as it could be scum trying to distance from one town wagon to another, but feels unlikely. In addition, while not impossible for scum, volunteering to receive a Post Restriction from Izhuark feels a little more town-sided to me. (Let me consider possible reasons a scum would take that approach, though: Town!JoaT using a Post Restriction on D1 is better than the alternative [using a scan/kill/protect/anything]. It provides town cred (self-evident based on my response to the move). It confirms Izhuark's claim, meaning they can eliminate him as a doc/cop suspect and decide when and how to deal with him on their terms [aka hook/kill], etc.) GP's posts have also been incredibly solidly reasoned, almost without exception, and with only one or two minor gaffes, and there's been no hint of active lurking. Feels way too town atm. In conclusion, unless all 5 initial votes for Diego were from town, Corinthian/Sniper is the scum on the wagon (at that point in time, could be more scum in the final stages for sure).

Which response are you referring to here? And do you have any questions for Tiny, given that you think you'll need to dig deeper in order to get a real case together?

I made the honest mistake of confusing one of Clarinets' posts with Tiny Goddess. In my defense, I was skimming hurriedly. The post in question was:

Okay then :)

Vote: Great Lord Diego

This might just be my complete unfamiliarity with Clarinets' personality, but the lighthearted town, complete with shitty smiley face flipped a switch and triggered an intense "oh no you didn't" initial emotional response for me, coming as it did in response to the gravity of the situation, yolo's (mistaken by one) call for someone to place the Hammer.

Here's how it went down in my notes as I reread it this afternoon:

yolo 204 leads into Tiny's 205 which /really/ bothers me. I don't like the winky emoticon especially. I can understand yolo miscounting/mistaking hammer a little, and even if it was an intentional lie, I can't assign inherently scum intent to it. However, TG shows a blind, cheerful willingness to jump on board without explaining why. Feels bad man.

Oh fuck, that wasn't Tiny at all, that was Clarinets. This is what skimming gives me. Holy shit, so my post yesterday was misinformed. I'll have to correct that as soon as possible. Yeah, Tiny didn't post until both her and proto drop a same time vote

We have little to no information on the table regarding night actions, and because of that, this day is progressing like D1 was, just without Diego.

Finally, as long as we're on the subject of Green Poets, I think this last sentence here is one of the first you've made that have given me any misgivings, so I was hoping you could elaborate on it a little. Maybe things have been different since I stopped playing regularly, but in lieu of a guilty verdict with appropriate claim, just how often do Town have any knowledge of what went on with Night Actions?

[Balcerzak]

that was supposed to say "light-hearted tone" but typos OP

[Baldrick]

I've read the thread, but I haven't formed any solid reads so I'll look to consolidate.

@Bal: I think Dreamer is saying they wouldn't get associative reads off you from anybody flipping, and thus finds your tone neutral.

You've more or less answered my question on Sniper, but can you tell me what your opinion on tiny is now that you realised you misattributed a post to her?

[Jaybee]

jesus i'm rusty

give me a few hours to crank out a coherent post

[Clarinets]

This might just be my complete unfamiliarity with Clarinets' personality, but the lighthearted town, complete with shitty smiley face flipped a switch and triggered an intense "oh no you didn't" initial emotional response for me, coming as it did in response to the gravity of the situation, yolo's (mistaken by one) call for someone to place the Hammer.

yolo 204 leads into Tiny's 205 which /really/ bothers me. I don't like the winky emoticon especially. I can understand yolo miscounting/mistaking hammer a little, and even if it was an intentional lie, I can't assign inherently scum intent to it. However, TG shows a blind, cheerful willingness to jump on board without explaining why. Feels bad man.

I don't really know why I included a smiley face. I guess I just like them, I guess? It was pretty ridiculous though, I agree. Also, about me voting Diego in general, I had mentioned, albeit just in a post to show I was in the game without any thought or effort put into it whatsoever, that I was suspicious of Diego.

I actually don't have scumreads on anyone right now. I can't seem to find anybody who's acting suspicious.

[Balcerzak]

@Baldrick

If I were to divide the game into equal thirds of "would not lynch if my life depended on it", "would need plausible convincing to lynch", and "would easily lynch" Tiny would fall squarely in the final category, though not as high in there as it would've been if she'd made the Clarinets post. Others have started to go into a little depth on issues such as equivocation, but what probably kills it the most for me is the refusal to vote. Tracking and comparing votes is one of the most powerful weapons the Town has, and steadfastly refusing to use this weapon, or to allow it to be used, is unpardonable. We need to stop giving J a pass for this shit too, unless I'm confusing them with another member, because I feel like their MO is always "coast through D1 narrowly escaping prods".

And thanks for saving me from having to construct another neatly planned response post right after supper here. All that's left on my agenda (now that Sniper's odd confusion appears to be sorted as well) would be constructing a summary, but after several hours of mafia-ing, I'm probably gonna step back and recuperate, so I don't burn myself out.

[Baldrick]

I actually don't have scumreads on anyone right now. I can't seem to find anybody who's acting suspicious.

You know who can't get scumreads because they already know who's scum? Scum, that's who.

##unvote

##vote: Clarinets

If you don't have any reads, do something about it.

@balcerzak:

J is somebody who should be vigged. If we have to use the lynch on people who refuse to play, we have no way to kill the mafia.

I'd sheep Gaius' case on Tiny, but she hasn't been on for a couple of days and we shouldn't lynch her without a claim.

[Green Poet]

Maybe things have been different since I stopped playing regularly, but in lieu of a guilty verdict with appropriate claim, just how often do Town have any knowledge of what went on with Night Actions?

Hmm, my first game was probably well after you'd stopped playing.

In many of the previous NOC games I've played, people tended to announce whatever information they felt was safe to divulge at the start of each day phase, to try to help town piece together what had happened overnight. That process was what I was referring to, and in this game there's very little of that going on - the only thing role/action-related that had been talked about at the time of writing was of me, stating that I had failed my action. And since then, the only other role/action discussion today was from Sniper Knight, re: Mancer.

What I was trying to say there was basically that, without any role/action information to go on, we're stuck voting people based on gut feeling or scummy posting, and can more quickly come to a shortage of discussion topics. It's not an ideal situation to be in.

Moving on, I trust Sniper's claim about Mancer. If Sniper is scum, then for him to vouch for Mancer now would most likely be to stake the game on he and Mancer not being lynched nor killed for the rest of the game. There is insufficient reward for scum to take this risk. As we are only on D2, tailoring is out of the question, and so the only way that town!Sniper could be misleading us is... cop insanity? That's something I don't believe is in this game, given the kind of non-bastard rules we were presented with, and what I'm led to believe about mod message truthfulness given the context of my own role. Therefore,

##Unvote: Mancer

##Vote: Clarinets

[Green Poet]

Oh, one more thing.

GP wants to know if my vote on Sniper is a pressure vote. I guess that's one way to characterize it. The other was based on vote analysis of the earliest votes on Diego (pre-consolidation). There were at one point five of them there, cast in order by: Izhuark, Refa, LG, GP, and Corinthian. Izhuark's was initially a joke-vote, later strengthened to real vote. That's a plausible path for a scum-vote to land on a wagon, but I've already eliminated Izhuark as a scum candidate for other reasons. Refa was the first serious vote, and got the snowball rolling on the whole shebang. It's rarer that scum start a successful wagon on town than simply taking advantage of already existing misplaced town suspicions (although it can happen). Furthermore, Refa makes too many other pro-town seeming plays throughout the day, especially in the endgame of D1, where he switches from Diego to Mancer, taking it from 6-1 to (after Proto's appearance and if LG had switched back) a potential 4-4, which could conceivably have developed into a fullfledged counterwagon. Without knowing Mancer's alignment for sure, this isn't 100% indicative, as it could be scum trying to distance from one town wagon to another, but feels unlikely. In addition, while not impossible for scum, volunteering to receive a Post Restriction from Izhuark feels a little more town-sided to me. (Let me consider possible reasons a scum would take that approach, though: Town!JoaT using a Post Restriction on D1 is better than the alternative [using a scan/kill/protect/anything]. It provides town cred (self-evident based on my response to the move). It confirms Izhuark's claim, meaning they can eliminate him as a doc/cop suspect and decide when and how to deal with him on their terms [aka hook/kill], etc.) GP's posts have also been incredibly solidly reasoned, almost without exception, and with only one or two minor gaffes, and there's been no hint of active lurking. Feels way too town atm. In conclusion, unless all 5 initial votes for Diego were from town, Corinthian/Sniper is the scum on the wagon (at that point in time, could be more scum in the final stages for sure).

I'm pretty convinced you're town at this point, but I'm also wondering why you're voting Sniper despite him more or less claiming an investigative. Is there something that made you particularly sure that at least one of the people voting Diego had to be scum? I understand the reasoning of elimination that led you to believe that Sniper was the one scum as opposed to the other four likely townies, just uncertain as to why there must be one scum.

Ah, my bad, I took it seriously.

##Unvote

Oh wait

##Unvote

Don't want my joke to have a negative effect on the Votals.

Do either of you have a serious vote to place, then?

Are you guys seriously trying to modspec ? I think i'm not the joker here... x)

Modspec...?

[Izhuark]

Oh, one more thing.

I'm pretty convinced you're town at this point, but I'm also wondering why you're voting Sniper despite him more or less claiming an investigative. Is there something that made you particularly sure that at least one of the people voting Diego had to be scum? I understand the reasoning of elimination that led you to believe that Sniper was the one scum as opposed to the other four likely townies, just uncertain as to why there must be one scum.

Modspec...?

Yeah sorry about that i was trying to say "seriously trying speccing from the mod post" (i don't know how to call it ... flavorspec maybe ?)

Personally i think sniper claim come out of nowhere especially after a limited investigation role was flipped and thus is hardly believable without any other backups. A noob could easily try to save his scumbuddy like that, thinking it's actually a good strategy (hint : it's not don't do it unless you have a really good backup plan) especially if his scumbuddies are inactive and therefore can't help him.