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Sniped_

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    Best/Worst cases of RNG screwage

    in Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn

    Posted · Edited by Sniped_

    It only goes to 2 decimal places on feplanet, so that's why mine weren't anywhere near accurate. There are so many numbers in the chart that I don't blame them for cutting it off at 2 decimal places, but I admit it would be cool to see 6 or 7 decimal places. With seeing 0.00 all I can really do is just pull numbers out of nowhere and hope they aren't too far off. I was being (extremely) conservative since I didn't want to say 1 in a billion or something without anything to back it up except how it shows 0.00.

    http://www.feplanet.net/games-10-characters-averages/1

    there are links on each stat and it goes to the chart. It's very useful for anything from 2% to 98%, and while I don't know if they are accurate it is probably fine. I'm assuming they used a program to fill out a matrix, so I can't see how it would be too hard to program the thing to do it right.

    Anyway, speed is:

    http://www.feplanet.net/index.php?fep=games%2F10%2Fcharacters%2Faverages&id=1&key=5

    which is where you see 0.00 for it.

    It's possible to make it slightly less difficult with bexp, of course, and by tier 3 it's easy to have hp/spd/def way above the averages without needing multiple resets, but I can't imagine how capping spd and that little res would ever happen without multiple resets.

    And I know the chance of hitting precisely the averages is low. But being that far off that many stats is quite incredible. I don't expect every stat to even be within 1 standard deviation, but for res and spd and def to be so far off...

    from fe planet

    hp 22.6 ±3.2

    str 4.8 ±2.3

    mag 19.9 ±1.1

    skill 15.6 ±2.9

    spd 13.6 ±3.2

    luck 25.2 ±2.9

    def 5.8 ±2.6

    res 19.8 ±1.1

    Now, I'm assuming those are either +/- 1 standard deviation or they indicate the 95% confidence interval. No idea which one. If it's the 95% confidence interval, then there would be a ~66% chance that all the stats would be within the ranges, which isn't amazingly high but it's not exactly low, either.

    Anyway, I generally don't compare to their average. I try to look at "probability of having at most x hp/str/etc" at a given level, since that is more interesting than looking at the probability of having a certain number. And when comparing characters it is the probability of having "at least" a certain value, rather than the probability of having precisely the speed needed to double a given enemy. Like, at level 15 Micaiah has a ~70% chance of having at least 18 magic, rather than saying that at level 15 she has a ~25% chance of having 18 magic.

    I understand standard deviations (68-95-99.7 rule, etc.) and such, but to be honest, you lost me after the +/- stats part. For, (Stat) X +/- Y, was Y one standard deviation? If so, it would mean 68% of all averages would be between (using HP as an example) 19.4-25.8. If it's two stand deviations, it would mean 95% fall in that range, and so on and so forth.

    I'm actually in the middle of an AP Statistics course, its pretty funny to see that that crap actually comes in handy. :D

    EDIT: I read through it a couple more times, and I see what you're getting at now. I agree, it's more useful to see their stats in an at least way instead exact numbers. The averages I posted above were only the exacts, so they probably aren't a very good indicator of what the probability really is. I don't feel like going through the calculations for that (looks like it would take me at least an hour >.>), but it's probably a very significant change.

    Best/Worst cases of RNG screwage

    in Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn

    Posted · Edited by Sniped_

    That's some seriously meh RES but some killer HP, Spd and Def. Even if you robed her she's still way above average on HP.

    EDIT: Wait a second. You HAVE to have robed her right AFTER hitting 2nd tier. It's literally impossible for have 34 HP at --/1 otherwise. Strength is lacking though. :( What's her luck? She should have 25 or so at that level.

    Sorry, I didn't have the stats in front of me then. She has 32 HP, 29 LUK (just checked, thats only one missed level O.O), and 15 Defense....

    And, no, I didn't BS abuse or any of that. It wouldn't be blessing in that case, it would have just been manufactured.

    Since it is extremely unlikely to have that much spd, I'd have to assume it isn't RNG "blessing" but BSA abuse. When abusing for spd and def, or even just spd or just def, it is possible to not get luck or res. When this happens, you tend not to care because hey, you just got spd.

    There really isn't any other good explanation for how she only has 15 res at 20/0 (and 16 at 20/1). The chance of Micaiah having 15 res or less at level 20 rounds to 0.00, so less than 1% chance. Significantly less than 1%, as well, considering the chance of having 16 res or less is also less than 1%, and the chance of having 15 res or less is certainly much lower. In fact, they list 1% as 17 res or less, so I'd figure instead of 1 in 100 it's more like 1 in 1000 or something ridiculous.

    Also, they list the chance of having 20 speed at level 20 as 0.00, so again less than 1%. The chance of having 19 speed or more at level 20 is listed as 0.01, so 1%. Probably around 1 in 100 to 1 in 200, so that puts 20 speed as something really bad. Not as bad as 15 res, but still really low.

    Combine 1 in, say, ~400 and 1 in, say, ~800 and you get 1 in ~320000.

    Now, just going with 1 in 100 for each it is still 1 in 10000, but it's obvious that this is a lot more rare than that.

    So yeah, I call abuse, or abuse + stat boosters. The chance that this is a natural blessing/cursing is extremely low.

    This is from my first playthrough (I kept save points of it and never wrote over them), I wasn't concerned with abusing the BS, I just wanted to play the game.

    To show the exact probabilities....

    RES: 1/~4216

    HP: 1/~1854

    DEF: 1/~1601862

    SPD: 1/~1790

    Cumulative (not counting other stats, that would probably make this about a million times less probable. o.O):

    .0000000000000000446181478=1/~22,412,405,030,000,000<---22.4 quadrillion<---22,400 trillion<---22,400,000 billion<---22.4 million billion. lulz.

    I don't know if many people understand this, but the chance of her hitting EXACTLY all of her averages is still incredibly tiny. Narga_Rocks, I'm not sure where you got your probabilities, but I'm sure it would have the chance she would hit all of her averages. Do you mind posting it to compare?

    Pardon my simplicity,

    in Fan Projects

    Posted

    but.....

    A. I'm new to the forums. Ola.

    B. I've never used ROM's before, but I'd love to get acquainted with them because some of these patches look sweet.

    C. Basically, if anyone could walk me through the steps of how to get an emulator(I think?) and a ROM up and running, that'd be great.

    D. If it means anything, I have a Mac, and I downloaded the VBA for Macs a few weeks ago, but once I downloaded it I really didn't know what to do.

    P.S.- I DID check the search engine(yay propz for lolcommonsense) for tutorial and guide, but nothing really came up, so this is basically my last option...I've posted on a few other boards, with no adequate response yet.

    Thanks in advance :D

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