Voting Gauntlet: A Hero Rises 2024!

[Diovani Bressan]

The  2024 A Hero Rises Voting Gauntlet is coming!

 

Remember:
The four winners of Round 1 will appear in a summoning event scheduled for the second half of March,
which you can get a free copy by doing 40 summons, up to 4 times!

And the winner of this Voting Gauntlet will be gifted to all players... for a limited time!

Also... for this Voting Gauntlet, you will not get a 1.1x voting boost if your leader is the same character as the Hero
whose army you joined. If you are on Team Edelgard, for example, you will not get a higher score by using Edelgard during the event.

So... Which army will you support?

Predictors by @DarkAlf:

PREDICTOR A

PREDICTOR B

 

Edited February 26 by Diovani Bressan

[Tybrosion]

I hate Edelgard so much that I will very likely go with Peony even though I already have Peony and not Edelgard.

Besides Dimitri, I have (or in Claude’s case, had) everyone else here. I am not going with Dimitri because I’m actually that done with Three Houses at this point.

Besides, I can get behind supporting the green dream especially when it comes at Edelgard’s expense.

[indigoasis]

I'll probably go with Camilla or Alear, but Peony is arguably the best choice.

It's just too bad she's going against Edelgard in the first round, lmao

[ARMADS!!!]

I only have Peony and Sanaki, and by virtue of Peony being useful even if you already have her, I'll support Alear just so Sanaki doesn't win because, even if she'e not my favorite here, I simply want a unit that I don't have yet (and all of them would be more than great anyway, it's not like I dislike L!Alear).

Edited February 26 by ARMADS!!!

[Ice Dragon]

Peony is the choice that benefits me the most since she's the only skill duplicator in the lineup, so I'll probably join her team for the first round, and I'll see where things go from there.

Any of these characters being on the banner would be good for me (and I wouldn't mind any of them being the free unit, either) since all of them have value as either merges or for skill inheritance, but it would be awesome if the banner were all green, which is actually possible with these matchups, even if it'll be difficult for Peony to beat Edelgard.

[Othin]

I already have Edelgard, Peony, and Dimitri, and the first two of those are facing each other, so I'm going Gullveig.

[Sunwoo]

Theoretically I'm okay with anyone, because they'll all be new to me. But I want Sanaki the most. That said, Alear is cool too if she wins, so I don't really have too much complaints.

[Florete]

I only have Camilla, but I'd particularly like to get Sanaki and Alear...so of course those two are facing each other in the first round.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

All of them would be useful units, or have good fodder. This is one of those instances where I'm pretty okay with everyone and don't really know who to support.

[Humanoid]

Hmm, there's basically no issue with any of these matchups for me.

1) Edelgard would be new and her serial-killing tendencies suit me great. But Peony is fine too despite having three copies already, since she can duplicate skills and can also advance the green dream. There's the comedy factor too of Eddie continuing her losing streak. Neutral.

2) Don't have either unit here. Gullveig would be great for dodging Mythic banner RNG, Dimitri for the green dream. Neutral.

3) Both green so that aspect is a non-factor. I recently picked up Claude from one of the 12-unit seasonal banners, so Camilla is preferred.

4) I have Alear but not Sanaki, but at least Alear is green. Neutral-to-Sanakish.

 

Typing that up helped me decide that Camilla is the clear choice for my purposes.

[Flying Shogi]

I pulled Gullveig on the legendary banner but she can use a better asset so I'm hoping she makes it onto the AHR banner. A shame that Claude is against Camilla. Would have liked both to be on the banner as they can use a better asset as well. Gonna go with Claude but regardless of who wins out of the two, it looks like I'll be sparking once on the banner.

[Humanoid]

Given that odds of winning a round are roughly proportional to army size, it's interesting to note the first-hour numbers to give an idea on who's likely to take home the chocolates. So simply reading off the numbers in the spreadsheets above

Edelgard 5.3 vs Peony 2.8
Gullveig 3.9 vs Dimitri 3.2
Camilla 4.0 vs Claude 1.6
Alear 3.6 vs Sanaki 1.8

So approximately 5:4 for Gullveig, 2:1 for both Edelgard and Alear and 5:2 for Camilla.

[DefyingFates]

5 hours ago, Humanoid said:

Gullveig 3.9 vs Dimitri 3.2

I wonder how much this will change now that Dimitri's confirmed as a new combat manual. I'm sure there will still be those siding with him because 3H, but I'm sure that took a lot of wind out of his sails.

So yeah, the "Green Dream" may not be too ideal anymore, but I'm hoping we at least get Greens in the other three slots. Come on, multipliers!

[Ice Dragon]

12 minutes ago, DefyingFates said:

I wonder how much this will change now that Dimitri's confirmed as a new combat manual. I'm sure there will still be those siding with him because 3H, but I'm sure that took a lot of wind out of his sails.

So yeah, the "Green Dream" may not be too ideal anymore, but I'm hoping we at least get Greens in the other three slots. Come on, multipliers!

The combat manual was announced a few hours before the Voting Gauntlet started, so even if some people hadn't yet seen the announcement, I don't think it'll make that much of a difference.

Especially since a combat manual is still very different from (1) being on a banner, (2) being sparkable, and (3) potentially getting a free copy.

[Mercakete]

I wound up joining Gullveig, but I'm not super invested in any of these guys. I already have the ones in this that I preferred to have. Still, I guess Peony or Gullveig would be the best for my barracks.

[DefyingFates]

@DarkAlf, what algorithms are you running for your predictors, if that's something you're willing to share?

Anyway, as stated before I'm on Team Peony and we've been on the backfoot a lot during this VG. For every hour she leads she's stuck with ~2 hours of multipliers back to back. I just hope your backup is right about her getting a multiplier on the final hour instead of them being trapped in same hell. As for the other pairings, the spreadsheets are undecided on Gullveig vs Dimitri but unilateral on Camilla and Alear moving forward. As much as I personally would love to have Duo Sanaki, I can accept that (as also said earlier).

[DarkAlf]

@DefyingFates The algorithms for both predictors basically work like this: start with the hour 1 totals.  This is actually a relatively good assumption, as usually in the first day it's mostly casuals spending flags, and army sizes proportionally in each match usually don't vary an incredibly huge amount.  (The second day is a different story, especially if there's a "Team Feathers.")  Then for each hour after hour 1, hourly gains are predicted for each remaining hour by taking the hour 1 gain and multiplying by these values:

• "Score vs. hour 1" multiplier: basically this changes the baseline value, as an army gets larger with more folks joining in.  This attempts to account for differences regionally - such as U.S. vs. Europe vs. Japan vs. other regions.
• "Flag spending" multiplier if army is weaker: whenever an army has the Disadvantage (weaker) multiplier, there will be more flag spending, so this attempts to account for that.  I try to account for "Team Feathers" effects with this multiplier here.
• Current multiplier in effect: this is either the Disadvantage (weaker) or the Endurance (stronger/same) multiplier.

The first two multipliers are from a table, where I calculated these values using previous VGs.  How these are calculated is a bit of a long story with some statistics involved, so I'll leave it at that.

In the main predictor (version A), whenever a prediction is about 10% or more off, the first two multipliers - "Flag spending" and "Score vs. hour 1" - will adjust proportionally upward/downward if the prediction is too low/too high, with the "Flag spending" multiplier adjusted if the prediction is too far off for an army that has the Disadvantage multiplier, and the "Score vs. hour 1" multiplier adjusted if an army has the Endurance multiplier.  (It's a bit tricky to try to adjust both at the same time, so I figure it'd be easier to adjust one at a time.)  If the predictions are within 10%, then no multipliers are adjusted.

In the backup predictor (version B), the first two multipliers are always adjusted no matter the accuracy, and there's actually a little variability built in as well with the multipliers using an assumed normal distribution.  I've found that this doesn't work very well, so I removed that in the main predictor.

There are long-term plans to try to incorporate machine learning/AI to predicting future values, but that's a long ways off, if it happens.  Other ideas include trying to account for longer periods where it's the "same" on both sides to adjust the Disadvantage multipliers, adding an "afterglow" effect, especially for the final hours, among others.

Anyway, to cut a long story short, I use past history to attempt to predict each hour's gains based on army size and the multiplier in effect.

[DefyingFates]

1 hour ago, DarkAlf said:

Anyway, to cut a long story short, I use past history to attempt to predict each hour's gains based on army size and the multiplier in effect.

Okay, so that's roughly what I had in mind, though I confess some of the specifics went over my head. I'm really interested in a machine learned version of this in the future though! A shame the only methods I'm comfortable with are Bayes and simple neural networking 😕

In any case, thank you very much for the explanation! And sorry that I'm hoping Version A gets the Edelgard vs Peony prediction wrong!

[Tybrosion]

The green dream was realized once again, as Peony, Dimitri, Claude and F!Alear are the winners of the first round and will all be featured on the AHR 2024 banner.

Also, imagine being an academy house leader who (yet again) doesn't get to appear on the AHR banner. RIP Adrestian bozo, for the sixth time in these AHR Voting Gauntlets.

[Flying Shogi]

Looks like it's an all green banner. A little surprised that it actually happened. A little bummed that Gullveig lost but on the bright side that means I'm only going for one spark. Doing 2 sparks very likely would have meant dipping into my story mode orbs and I try to avoid that. 

[EricaofRenais]

Dang I was hoping Camilla would beat Claude.  Oh well.  Here's hoping Peony or Claude win because I really don't want another Alear she likes to pity break me on legendary banners too much, and I have Dimitri and you can soon get a combat manual of him so he is another unit I don't really need.  I guess I should be happy that Edelgard lost, but it being 2 units I already have on the banner sucks.  Looks like I may skip the banner because it won't be worth the orbs for me.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I'm amazed Edelgard still cannot seem to win an AHR Voting Gauntlet. It's kind of hilarious? Anyway, I like that everyone on the banner will be the same color, we've realized the Green Dream.

[Othin]

Aww. I really wanted Gullveig.

Alear and Claude are the two remaining units I'm missing, so I guess I'll switch to Alear.

Edited March 3 by Othin

[EricaofRenais]

25 minutes ago, Othin said:

Aww. I really wanted Gullveig.

Alear and Claude are the two remaining units I'm missing, so I guess I'll switch to Alear.

Please don't.  She is already on the banner don't make me stuck with her as the free unit.  Please anyone not sure who to side with now please just anyone but Alear!  I know she may have good fodder for some but she stalks me on the legendary banners and I am sick of seeing her show up and if she is the winner I will cry because I am that sick of her.

[vikingsfan92]

 

1 hour ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

I'm amazed Edelgard still cannot seem to win an AHR Voting Gauntlet. It's kind of hilarious? Anyway, I like that everyone on the banner will be the same color, we've realized the Green Dream.

Voting Gauntlet is flawed for many many many reasons. I hate the fact AHR still uses it.  Unashamed Voting Gauntlet hater for years now. Not just because of Edelgard but the mechanics are dumb that time periods can screw over people if they aren't awake at the optimum multiplier hours and so on and so forth.